<p>英国的失业率意外上升，国际货币基金组织警告称，中东战争正在抑制近期的经济增长前景。</p>
<p>根据英国国家统计局今天发布的数据，截止到三月的三个月内，失业率上升至 5%，高于预期的 4.9%。根据 ONS 的数据，扣除奖金影响后的平均周薪增长在截至三月的三个月内为 3.4%，低于前一时期的 3.6%。</p>
<p>“这些数据表明，英国劳动力市场正面临日益严重的困境，飙升的劳动力成本和伊朗战争的影响促使更多企业减少招聘并限制薪酬增长，” 英格兰和威尔士特许会计师协会首席经济学家 Suren Thiru 表示。“英国正处于一个危险的就业危机边缘。”</p>
<p>Thiru 表示，“能源成本飙升和伊朗冲突导致的客户需求下降对企业造成的冲击” 是主要原因。他补充说，失业率可能在今年上升至接近 6%。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! kLEn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb80e9f15-1556-42ee-b447-7cd8109e9bbb_909x408.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! kLEn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb80e9f15-1556-42ee-b447-7cd8109e9bbb_909x408.png) 来源：ONS</p>
<p>英国经济面临内外部的逆风。5 月 7 日地方选举后的政治不确定性削弱了对英国经济的信心。首相基尔·斯塔默在工党历史性的 失利 后濒临辞职。</p>
<p>“最新数据显示，劳动力市场依然疲软，职位空缺降至五年来的最低水平，” ONS 经济统计局局长 Liz McKeown 表示。“截至三月的三个月内，工资单员工人数继续下降，而常规工资增长进一步放缓。”</p>
<p>ONS 数据显示，英国的工资单员工人数在三月减少了 104,000 人，同比下降 0.3%。根据 McKeown 的说法，酒店和零售行业的职位空缺和工资单人数降幅最大。</p>
<h2>国际货币基金组织警告经济放缓</h2>
<p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）周一表示，中东战争抑制了近期的经济前景。IMF 将对英国的 2026 年预测 上调至 1%，高于 4 月《世界经济展望》中预测的 0.8%。</p>
<p>这一修正反映了战前强于预期的经济动能，包括数据修正和强劲的第一季度表现。增长较 2025 年的 1.4% 有所放缓。</p>
<p>“疲软主要集中在去年税收和最低工资上涨影响最大的面向消费者的行业，” ING 的发达市场经济学家 James Smith 今天表示。“这种压力可能会因即将到来的能源冲击而加剧。”</p>
<p>IMF 表示，战争将通过更高的能源价格、运输成本和金融市场的不确定性来 影响 英国。总部位于华盛顿的基金预计，2026 年的整体通胀将达到接近 4% 的峰值，远高于英格兰银行 2% 的目标。</p>
<p>国际基准布伦特原油期货年初至今上涨约 80%，周一收于 $110 每桶。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! LszC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2fca360d-2e2e-4cc7-9e56-0a63b9b12f11_1540x861.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! LszC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2fca360d-2e2e-4cc7-9e56-0a63b9b12f11_1540x861.png) 布伦特原油，年初至今，来源：Trading View</p>
<h2>航运中断推高电力价格</h2>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡的航运中断使英国的通胀在三月加速至 3.3%，为三个月来的最高水平。ONS 将在周三发布最新的通胀数据，分析师预测将达到 3%。</p>
<p>从 7 月起，英国家庭的能源账单将上涨 209 英镑，达到 1850 英镑，Cornwall Insight 预测。上涨的主要原因是批发价格上涨，路透社 报道。</p>
<p>在 2 月和 3 月，由于美国和以色列对伊朗的导弹袭击，能源价格上涨。伊朗的攻击损坏了海湾的能源基础设施，并导致霍尔木兹海峡的关闭，推高了能源价格。</p>
<p>通过该海峡的中断，约占全球能源供应的 20%，将影响英国的经济增长。BGDP 在三月环比仅增长 0.3%，低于 2 月的 0.4%。</p>
<h2>外部和内部冲击交汇</h2>
<p>英国面临着&#34;国内 不确定性&#34;，因为这些外部冲击与内部政治不确定性相碰撞。</p>
<p>据报道，基尔·斯塔默首相在工党在 5 月地方选举中的惨败后，正处于辞职的边缘。近 100 名工党议员呼吁斯塔默辞职。</p>
<p>该党失去了近 1,229 个地方议会席位，投票份额平均下降了 18 个百分点。反改革英国党在反建制情绪的推动下，成为主导力量，获得了超过 1,454 个席位。</p>
<p>政治分析人士表示，斯塔默作为首相的任期岌岌可危。政治风险咨询公司 Eurasia Group 将斯塔默在今年被罢免的概率提高至 80%，而之前为 65%。</p>
<h2>外汇市场反应</h2>
<p>外汇市场在投资者消化失望的失业数据后作出反应。英镑对美元下滑至约 1.34 美元，过去三个月下跌约 1.3%。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! lixJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b219d82-60ff-4035-910a-c28cd89432f9_1540x864.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! lixJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b219d82-60ff-4035-910a-c28cd89432f9_1540x864.png) 三个月英镑对美元汇率，来源：Trading View</p>
<p>年初时，市场曾短暂预期将加息两次。路透社报道，最新观点认为英格兰银行（BoE）更可能维持利率不变。该中央银行在 4 月将银行利率保持在 3.75% 不变。</p>
<p>英格兰银行的政策制定者 表示，中东冲突扰乱了运输并推高了家庭的燃油成本。英格兰银行预计能源价格的上涨将&#34;产生连锁反应&#34;，因为企业提高价格，工人要求更高的工资。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织 表示：&#34;主要风险是中东战争的持续，导致能源和食品价格在较长时间内上涨，以及全球市场的持续波动。&#34; &#34;国内的不确定性也可能加剧已经动荡的全球环境，抑制消费和投资决策。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本 文章 中表达的任何观点不应被视为投资建议，仅代表作者个人观点。欧洲资本洞察不对基于本文内容作出的任何财务决策负责。读者可以将本文用于信息和教育目的。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>

英镑 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>英国的失业率上升至 5%，超出预期，国际货币基金组织（IMF）警告称中东战争正在抑制增长前景。平均工资增长放缓至 3.4%，职位空缺降至五年来的最低水平。地方选举后的政治不确定性增加了经济挑战，首相基尔·斯塔默面临辞职压力。IMF 预计通胀将在 2026 年达到 4% 以下的峰值，主要受地缘政治紧张局势导致的能源成本上升推动。在这些发展背景下，英镑对美元贬值</p>

<p>The United Kingdom’s unemployment rate unexpectedly turned higher, as the International Monetary Fund warned that the war in the Middle East is dampening near term growth prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国的失业率意外上升，国际货币基金组织警告称，中东战争正在抑制近期的经济增长前景。</p>
</div><p>The rate climbed to 5%, above expectations of 4.9%, for the three months ending in March, the UK's Office for National Statistics said today. Average weekly wage growth, excluding the effects of bonuses, stood at 3.4% in the three months to March, according to the ONS. That is down from 3.6% in the previous period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据英国国家统计局今天发布的数据，截止到三月的三个月内，失业率上升至 5%，高于预期的 4.9%。根据 ONS 的数据，扣除奖金影响后的平均周薪增长在截至三月的三个月内为 3.4%，低于前一时期的 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;These figures signal a growing distress within the UK's labor market as soaring labor costs and the fallout from the Iran war drive more businesses to reduce recruitment and limit pay awards,&#34; Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said. &#34;The UK is on the cusp of a perilous jobs crunch.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这些数据表明，英国劳动力市场正面临日益严重的困境，飙升的劳动力成本和伊朗战争的影响促使更多企业减少招聘并限制薪酬增长，” 英格兰和威尔士特许会计师协会首席经济学家 Suren Thiru 表示。“英国正处于一个危险的就业危机边缘。”</p>
</div><p>The “hit on businesses from skyrocketing energy costs and declining customer demand amid the Iran conflict&#34; is the catalyst, Thiru said. Joblessness could rise to close to 6% this year, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thiru 表示，“能源成本飙升和伊朗冲突导致的客户需求下降对企业造成的冲击” 是主要原因。他补充说，失业率可能在今年上升至接近 6%。</p>
</div><p> Source: ONS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! kLEn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb80e9f15-1556-42ee-b447-7cd8109e9bbb_909x408.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! kLEn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb80e9f15-1556-42ee-b447-7cd8109e9bbb_909x408.png) 来源：ONS</p>
</div><p>The British economy faces internal and external headwinds. Political uncertainty after local elections on May 7 has undermined confidence in the UK economy. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on the brink of resigning after the Labour Party's historic losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国经济面临内外部的逆风。5 月 7 日地方选举后的政治不确定性削弱了对英国经济的信心。首相基尔·斯塔默在工党历史性的 失利 后濒临辞职。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Latest figures suggest the labor market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years,&#34; Liz McKeown, Director of Economic Statistics, ONS, said. &#34;The number of payroll employees continued to fall in the three months to March, while regular wage growth slowed further.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“最新数据显示，劳动力市场依然疲软，职位空缺降至五年来的最低水平，” ONS 经济统计局局长 Liz McKeown 表示。“截至三月的三个月内，工资单员工人数继续下降，而常规工资增长进一步放缓。”</p>
</div><p>Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 104,000, or 0.3% year-on-year, in March, ONS data showed. Hospitality and retail saw the largest falls in vacancies and payroll numbers, according to McKeown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ONS 数据显示，英国的工资单员工人数在三月减少了 104,000 人，同比下降 0.3%。根据 McKeown 的说法，酒店和零售行业的职位空缺和工资单人数降幅最大。</p>
</div><h2>IMF Warns of Economic Slowdown</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>国际货币基金组织警告经济放缓</h2>
</div><p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday that war in the Middle East had dampened near-term economic prospects. The IMF upgraded its 2026 forecast for the UK to 1%, up from the 0.8%in its April World Economic Outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）周一表示，中东战争抑制了近期的经济前景。IMF 将对英国的 2026 年预测 上调至 1%，高于 4 月《世界经济展望》中预测的 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>The revision reflected stronger-than-expected pre-war momentum, including data revisions and a robust first-quarter. The growth represented a slowdown from the 1.4% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一修正反映了战前强于预期的经济动能，包括数据修正和强劲的第一季度表现。增长较 2025 年的 1.4% 有所放缓。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Weakness has been particularly concentrated in consumer-facing sectors most affected by last year's tax and minimum wage hikes,&#34; James Smith, Developed Markets Economist, UK, ING, wrote today. &#34;That pressure is only likely to be exacerbated by the incoming energy shock.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“疲软主要集中在去年税收和最低工资上涨影响最大的面向消费者的行业，” ING 的发达市场经济学家 James Smith 今天表示。“这种压力可能会因即将到来的能源冲击而加剧。”</p>
</div><p>The war would affect the UK through higher energy prices, shipping costs, and financial market uncertainty, the IMF said. The Washington-based fund has projected that headline inflation will peak at just below 4% in 2026. That is well above the Bank of England's 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IMF 表示，战争将通过更高的能源价格、运输成本和金融市场的不确定性来 影响 英国。总部位于华盛顿的基金预计，2026 年的整体通胀将达到接近 4% 的峰值，远高于英格兰银行 2% 的目标。</p>
</div><p>International benchmark Brent crude futures increased about 80% year-to-date, closing above $110 a barrel on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际基准布伦特原油期货年初至今上涨约 80%，周一收于 $110 每桶。</p>
</div><p> Brent crude, year to date, source: Trading View</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! LszC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2fca360d-2e2e-4cc7-9e56-0a63b9b12f11_1540x861.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! LszC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2fca360d-2e2e-4cc7-9e56-0a63b9b12f11_1540x861.png) 布伦特原油，年初至今，来源：Trading View</p>
</div><h2>Shipping Disruptions Elevate Power Prices</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>航运中断推高电力价格</h2>
</div><p>Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated UK inflation to 3.3% in March, the highest reading in three months. The ONS will release the latest inflation data on Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a reading of 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡的航运中断使英国的通胀在三月加速至 3.3%，为三个月来的最高水平。ONS 将在周三发布最新的通胀数据，分析师预测将达到 3%。</p>
</div><p>UK energy bills will rise by £209 to £1,850 a year for a household from July, Cornwall Insight forecast. The main driver for the increase is higher ⁠wholesale prices, Reuters reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 7 月起，英国家庭的能源账单将上涨 209 英镑，达到 1850 英镑，Cornwall Insight 预测。上涨的主要原因是批发价格上涨，路透社 报道。</p>
</div><p>They climbed in February and March after U.S. ​and Israeli missile strikes on Iran. Iranian attacks ​that damaged Gulf energy infrastructure and triggered the closure of the Strait pushed energy prices higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月和 3 月，由于美国和以色列对伊朗的导弹袭击，能源价格上涨。伊朗的攻击损坏了海湾的能源基础设施，并导致霍尔木兹海峡的关闭，推高了能源价格。</p>
</div><p>The disruptions through the Strait, which accounts for about 20% of the world's energy supplies, will hit British growth. BGDP expanded just 0.3% month-on-month in March, slowing from 0.4% in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过该海峡的中断，约占全球能源供应的 20%，将影响英国的经济增长。BGDP 在三月环比仅增长 0.3%，低于 2 月的 0.4%。</p>
</div><h2>External, Internal Shocks Collide</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外部和内部冲击交汇</h2>
</div><p>The UK faces &#34;domestic uncertainty&#34; as these external shocks collide with internal political uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国面临着&#34;国内 不确定性&#34;，因为这些外部冲击与内部政治不确定性相碰撞。</p>
</div><p>Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reportedly on the brink of resignation after Labour's catastrophic performance in the May local elections. Nearly 100 Labour MPs have called for Starmer to go.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，基尔·斯塔默首相在工党在 5 月地方选举中的惨败后，正处于辞职的边缘。近 100 名工党议员呼吁斯塔默辞职。</p>
</div><p>The party lost nearly 1,229 council seats and saw its vote share collapse by an average of 18 percentage points. Reform UK, riding a wave of anti-establishment anger, emerged as the dominant force with over 1,454 seats gained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该党失去了近 1,229 个地方议会席位，投票份额平均下降了 18 个百分点。反改革英国党在反建制情绪的推动下，成为主导力量，获得了超过 1,454 个席位。</p>
</div><p>Political analysts suggest that Starmer's time as prime minister is hanging by a thread. Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group raised the probability of Starmer being ousted this year to 80%, up from 65%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政治分析人士表示，斯塔默作为首相的任期岌岌可危。政治风险咨询公司 Eurasia Group 将斯塔默在今年被罢免的概率提高至 80%，而之前为 65%。</p>
</div><h2>Forex Market Reacts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外汇市场反应</h2>
</div><p>Forex markets responded as investors processed the disappointing unemployment data. The pound slipped against the dollar to about $1.34 and is down about 1.3% in the past three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇市场在投资者消化失望的失业数据后作出反应。英镑对美元下滑至约 1.34 美元，过去三个月下跌约 1.3%。</p>
</div><p> Three-month GBP rate against USD, source: Trading View</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! lixJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b219d82-60ff-4035-910a-c28cd89432f9_1540x864.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! lixJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b219d82-60ff-4035-910a-c28cd89432f9_1540x864.png) 三个月英镑对美元汇率，来源：Trading View</p>
</div><p>Earlier in the year, markets briefly priced in two rate hikes. The latest view is that the Bank of England (BoE) is more likely to leave rates unchanged, Reuters reported. The central bank kept its bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年初时，市场曾短暂预期将加息两次。路透社报道，最新观点认为英格兰银行（BoE）更可能维持利率不变。该中央银行在 4 月将银行利率保持在 3.75% 不变。</p>
</div><p>BoE policymakers said that the Middle East conflict has disrupted transportation and pushed up households' motor fuel costs. The BoE expects energy price rises to &#34;have knock-on effects&#34; as businesses increase prices and workers ask for higher wages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行的政策制定者 表示，中东冲突扰乱了运输并推高了家庭的燃油成本。英格兰银行预计能源价格的上涨将&#34;产生连锁反应&#34;，因为企业提高价格，工人要求更高的工资。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The main risk is a prolonged war in the Middle East, resulting in higher energy and food prices for an extended period, and sustained global market volatility,&#34; the IMF said. &#34;Domestic uncertainty could also add to the already volatile global environment, holding back consumption and investment decisions.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织 表示：&#34;主要风险是中东战争的持续，导致能源和食品价格在较长时间内上涨，以及全球市场的持续波动。&#34; &#34;国内的不确定性也可能加剧已经动荡的全球环境，抑制消费和投资决策。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. European Capital Insights is not responsible for any financial decisions made based on the content of this article. Readers may use this article for information and educational purposes only.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本 文章 中表达的任何观点不应被视为投资建议，仅代表作者个人观点。欧洲资本洞察不对基于本文内容作出的任何财务决策负责。读者可以将本文用于信息和教育目的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>
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UK Unemployment Hits 5% And Wages Slow As Middle East War Pushes Energy Bills Higher

- 英国失业率意外上升至 5%，高于预期的 4.9%。  
- 国际货币基金组织警告中东战争抑制经济增长，通胀或达 4%。  
- 英镑对美元汇率下滑，显示市场对经济前景的担忧。

英国失业率达到 5%，工资增长放缓，而中东战争推高了能源账单