<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>四月底的会议是鲍威尔作为美联储主席的最后一次会议</p>
<p>加利福尼亚州阿罕布拉的一家超市展示了咖啡价格。</p>
<p>美联储官员对企业如何应对能源冲击有着第一手的观察。上个月为期两天的会议纪要将于周三下午发布，可能会揭示企业是否将这些上涨的价格转嫁给消费者。</p>
<p>这份纪要涵盖了鲍威尔作为主席的最后一次会议，可能还会提供美联储官员在凯文·沃什接任主席时对利率政策的思考。沃什在过去一年竞选这一职位时表示，他希望降息，这是白宫首选的政策方向。但持续高企的通胀可能使降息的理由难以成立。</p>
<p>阅读更多：特朗普表示他会让沃什 “随心所欲” 地处理利率。这是美联储观察者一直在关注的言论。</p>
<p>消费者通胀在四月份加速至 3.8%，为三年来的最高水平，而核心价格（不包括食品和能源价格）上涨了 2.8%。</p>
<p>阅读：高油价和通胀让人们感到压力</p>
<p>Janney Capital Management 的首席固定收益策略师盖·勒巴斯表示，纪要中最有趣的观察点是美联储官员是否看到能源价格飙升对核心指标的 “传导” 迹象。</p>
<p>勒巴斯在一封电子邮件中表示：“地区美联储银行与其辖区内的企业保持频繁联系，这些企业对它们在多大程度上会根据能源成本的上涨提高价格有直接的洞察。”</p>
<p>在正常情况下，美联储不会因能源价格上涨而改变其利率政策，因为这些价格通常会在不引发通胀螺旋的情况下消退。</p>
<p>但官员们将关注传导的程度。他表示，在情况更加明朗之前，他们将保持观望。</p>
<p>勒巴斯表示：“美联储不会因为油价上涨而加息，但他们会因为油价上涨而暂停降息。”</p>
<p>美联储四月份会议的纪要将于周三下午 2 点发布。</p>
<p>上个月会议上历史性高水平的分歧</p>
<p>在美联储四月份的会议上，政策制定者维持利率不变，并保持 “宽松偏向” 的表述，暗示他们的下一步可能是降息。这导致了四个反对意见，这是自 1992 年以来最多的。</p>
<p>其中三个反对意见来自希望取消这一宽松偏向并发出下一步可能是加息或降息信号的地区美联储主席。</p>
<p>美联储观察者表示，他们将密切关注纪要，以了解这三位反对者得到了多少其他官员的支持。</p>
<p>在三月份的会议上，只有 “一些” 政策制定者表示，取消宽松偏向有 “强烈理由”。</p>
<p>野村的高级美国经济学家杰里米·施瓦茨表示，四月份的纪要将显示 “许多” 参与者直接主张转向中性指导，或者至少表示他们可能支持调整。</p>
<p>鲍威尔告诉记者，这种对宽松偏向的少数意见可能在下次美联储会议（6 月 16-17 日）上成为多数意见。</p>
<p>高频经济学的首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格表示：“无论上个月反对者可能获得的沉默支持有多少，6 月份可能会有更多。”</p>
<p>债券收益率急剧上升，表明市场对美联储应对高通胀的准备感到担忧。</p>
<p>勒巴斯表示，市场对此 “方向性转变” 非常清楚。</p>
<p>“我们不知道的是，这种偏好在多大程度上是为了抵消即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什被认为的鸽派倾向，” 勒巴斯说。</p>
<p>美联储的纪要不会阻碍收益率的上升，花旗集团的美国首席经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特表示。</p>
<p>他在给客户的报告中表示：“美联储官员对劳动力市场的关注减少，而对通胀的关注增加。”</p>
<p>-Greg Robb</p>
<p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-19-26 1502ET</p>

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<p>即将发布的美联储四月会议纪要可能会揭示企业是否将更高的能源成本转嫁给消费者。随着四月份通胀上升至 3.8%，美联储官员正在密切关注这一情况，因为他们在新主席 Kevin Warsh 的领导下考虑利率政策。会议纪要还将突出政策制定者在放松偏向方面的重大分歧，表明未来利率决策可能发生变化。市场反应表明对美联储应对通胀的方式存在担忧，债券收益率因此上升</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Meeting at end of April was Powell's last as Fed chair</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月底的会议是鲍威尔作为美联储主席的最后一次会议</p>
</div><p>Coffee prices are displayed at a supermarket in Alhambra, Calif.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加利福尼亚州阿罕布拉的一家超市展示了咖啡价格。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials have a front-row seat to how businesses are reacting to the energy shock. Minutes from their two-day meeting last month, which will be published Wednesday afternoon, could shed light on whether firms are passing these higher prices to their consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员对企业如何应对能源冲击有着第一手的观察。上个月为期两天的会议纪要将于周三下午发布，可能会揭示企业是否将这些上涨的价格转嫁给消费者。</p>
</div><p>The minutes, which cover the last meeting with Jerome Powell as chair, may also provide insight into how Fed officials are thinking about interest rate policy as Kevin Warsh takes over as chair. As Warsh campaigned for the job over the past year, he's indicated he'd like to cut rates, the White House's preferred policy approach. But persistently high inflation could make cuts difficult to justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这份纪要涵盖了鲍威尔作为主席的最后一次会议，可能还会提供美联储官员在凯文·沃什接任主席时对利率政策的思考。沃什在过去一年竞选这一职位时表示，他希望降息，这是白宫首选的政策方向。但持续高企的通胀可能使降息的理由难以成立。</p>
</div><p>Read more: Trump says he'll let Warsh 'do what he wants to do' with interest rates. It's a remark that Fed watchers have been bracing for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读更多：特朗普表示他会让沃什 “随心所欲” 地处理利率。这是美联储观察者一直在关注的言论。</p>
</div><p>Consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest reading in three years, while core prices, excluding food and energy prices, rose at a 2.8% rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者通胀在四月份加速至 3.8%，为三年来的最高水平，而核心价格（不包括食品和能源价格）上涨了 2.8%。</p>
</div><p>Read: High gas prices and inflation are stressing people out</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：高油价和通胀让人们感到压力</p>
</div><p>Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Capital Management, said the most interesting thing to watch for in the minutes is whether Fed officials see hints of a &#34;pass-through&#34; from surging energy prices into the core measure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Janney Capital Management 的首席固定收益策略师盖·勒巴斯表示，纪要中最有趣的观察点是美联储官员是否看到能源价格飙升对核心指标的 “传导” 迹象。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Regional Federal Reserve banks have frequent contact with businesses in their districts that have direct insight into whether and how much they'll increase their prices based on higher energy costs,&#34; LeBas said in an email.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒巴斯在一封电子邮件中表示：“地区美联储银行与其辖区内的企业保持频繁联系，这些企业对它们在多大程度上会根据能源成本的上涨提高价格有直接的洞察。”</p>
</div><p>In normal times, the Fed won't change its interest rate policy based on higher energy prices, which tend to fade without causing an inflationary spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情况下，美联储不会因能源价格上涨而改变其利率政策，因为这些价格通常会在不引发通胀螺旋的情况下消退。</p>
</div><p>But officials will focus on the degree of pass-through. And until the picture is clearer, they will stay on hold, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但官员们将关注传导的程度。他表示，在情况更加明朗之前，他们将保持观望。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed won't hike because oil prices are up, but they will pause in a cut process because oil prices are up,&#34; LeBas said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒巴斯表示：“美联储不会因为油价上涨而加息，但他们会因为油价上涨而暂停降息。”</p>
</div><p>The minutes of the Fed's April meeting will be released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储四月份会议的纪要将于周三下午 2 点发布。</p>
</div><p>Historically high levels of disagreement at last month's meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月会议上历史性高水平的分歧</p>
</div><p>At the Fed's April meeting, policymakers left interest rates unchanged and maintained &#34;easing bias&#34; language, suggesting their next move would be a rate cut. This prompted four dissents, the most since 1992.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储四月份的会议上，政策制定者维持利率不变，并保持 “宽松偏向” 的表述，暗示他们的下一步可能是降息。这导致了四个反对意见，这是自 1992 年以来最多的。</p>
</div><p>Three of the dissents came from regional Fed presidents who wanted to remove this easing bias and send a signal that the next move could be a rate hike or a rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中三个反对意见来自希望取消这一宽松偏向并发出下一步可能是加息或降息信号的地区美联储主席。</p>
</div><p>Fed watchers said they will be reading the minutes closely to see how much support the three dissenters had from other officials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储观察者表示，他们将密切关注纪要，以了解这三位反对者得到了多少其他官员的支持。</p>
</div><p>At their meeting in March, only &#34;some&#34; policymakers said there was a &#34;strong case&#34; for removing the easing bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三月份的会议上，只有 “一些” 政策制定者表示，取消宽松偏向有 “强烈理由”。</p>
</div><p>Jeremy Schwartz, senior U.S. economist at Nomura, said the April minutes will show &#34;many&#34; participants either directly advocating a shift to the neutral guidance or at least indicating they could have supported an adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村的高级美国经济学家杰里米·施瓦茨表示，四月份的纪要将显示 “许多” 参与者直接主张转向中性指导，或者至少表示他们可能支持调整。</p>
</div><p>Powell told reporters that this minority view on the easing bias could become a majority view as early as the next Fed meeting on June 16-17.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔告诉记者，这种对宽松偏向的少数意见可能在下次美联储会议（6 月 16-17 日）上成为多数意见。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Whatever silent support the dissenters may have had last month, there might be more of it in June,&#34; said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高频经济学的首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格表示：“无论上个月反对者可能获得的沉默支持有多少，6 月份可能会有更多。”</p>
</div><p>Bond yields have been moving sharply higher, indicating the market is concerned about the Fed's readiness to react to high inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券收益率急剧上升，表明市场对美联储应对高通胀的准备感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>LeBas said the market is well aware of this &#34;directional shift.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勒巴斯表示，市场对此 “方向性转变” 非常清楚。</p>
</div><p>&#34;What we don't know is how much of this preference is meant as a counterweight to incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's presumed dovish bias,&#34; LeBas said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们不知道的是，这种偏好在多大程度上是为了抵消即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什被认为的鸽派倾向，” 勒巴斯说。</p>
</div><p>Fed minutes will do nothing to impede the march higher in yields, said Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. chief economist at Citi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的纪要不会阻碍收益率的上升，花旗集团的美国首席经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Fed officials were less concerned with the labor market and more concerned with inflation,&#34; he said in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在给客户的报告中表示：“美联储官员对劳动力市场的关注减少，而对通胀的关注增加。”</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 1502ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 1502ET</p>
</div>

Are businesses passing on higher energy costs to their customers? These Fed minutes have the answer.

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企业是否在将更高的能源成本转嫁给客户？这些美联储纪要提供了答案