<p>这每年都像时钟一样准时发生。</p>
<p>日历翻到五月，金融媒体开始重复那些老生常谈的建议：卖掉你的股票，等到秋天再回来。</p>
<p>我从来不喜欢这种做法。今年，我认为遵循这个建议可能是你能犯的最昂贵的错误之一。</p>
<p>在今天的 <em>Market 360</em> 中，我想解释一下为什么我认为 “五月卖出” 在今年完全是错误的选择。然后，我将阐述我认为可能会成为 “小盘股的夏天” 的理由。</p>
<p>我还会告诉你如何获取我关注的小盘股的独家观察名单，以及如何获得我在 <em>Breakthrough Stocks</em> 中最有信心的小盘股推荐。我在上周的 <strong><em>10X Fed Shock</em> 事件</strong> 中分享了所有细节——今晚午夜是观看的最后机会。所以，让我们不浪费时间，直接开始吧。</p>
<h2>“五月卖出” 的来源</h2>
<p>首先，稍微了解一下历史——因为我认为了解 “五月卖出” 实际上起源于哪里是值得的。</p>
<p>这并不是在华尔街开始的，而是在 19 世纪的伦敦开始的。那时，富有的英国金融家和股票经纪人每年夏天都会离开城市的酷热街道，去乡村度假。</p>
<p>这意味着交易量下降，市场变得安静。股票往往在钱人秋天回来之前横盘或下跌。</p>
<p>完整的说法实际上是：“五月卖出，离开，等到圣莱杰日再回来。”</p>
<p>圣莱杰赛是著名的秋季赛马，英国三冠赛的最后一场，追溯到 1776 年。因此，富有的银行家们实际上是在告诉彼此，在九月的赛马之前不要参与市场。</p>
<p>当这一现象被引入华尔街时，它就留下了痕迹。并且在一段时间内，它确实有效。从 1950 年到 2003 年，数据或多或少支持这一观点。</p>
<p>但问题在于，一旦每个人都知道一个系统，它就不再有效。这对交易策略、市场谚语以及所有介于两者之间的东西都适用。</p>
<h2>数据实际上显示了什么</h2>
<p>现在，我会公平地说，夏季月份并不是统一强劲的。</p>
<p>八月和九月仍然是记录上最弱的两个月。在过去 20 年中，标准普尔 500 在八月的平均回报仅为 0.05%，在九月为负 0.67%。它们只有大约一半的时间是正的。</p>
<p>坦率地说，如果我负责，我会每年关闭整个八月的市场。那时，“A 队” 会去汉普顿或飞往欧洲度假。“B 队” 被留下负责，市场往往在没有专业人士掌舵的情况下漂浮。</p>
<p>但这就是传统智慧崩溃的地方。如果你缩小五月到十月的窗口，看看过去 20 年，七月实际上是市场表现最好的月份——上涨 2.54%。不是十一月，也不是四月，而是七月。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart1.png"/></p>
<p>所以 “五月卖出，离开” 不仅让你在弱势月份旁观。它还让你错过了一年中一些最佳的交易日。</p>
<h2>小盘股的夏天</h2>
<p>现在，如果你在今年跟随 “五月卖出” 的人群，你可能会真正犯错。</p>
<p>记住，标准普尔 500 只追踪大盘公司。</p>
<p>但现在，小盘股的罗素 2000 指数正在火热上涨。我认为这个夏天将是我们多年未见的小盘股的最佳时期之一。</p>
<p>你看，当每个人都专注于七大巨头和人工智能巨头交易时，小型公司的悄然轮换正在进行。</p>
<p>在过去一年中，罗素 2000 上涨了 31%，而标准普尔 500 上涨了 23%。截至目前，小盘股继续领先，上涨 11%，而标准普尔 500 上涨了 7.7%。</p>
<p>现在小盘公司的有趣之处在于，它们主要是国内公司。它们没有大盘股那样的全球曝光度，使其容易受到货币波动、地缘政治动荡和外国经济放缓的影响。</p>
<p>当美国经济增长时，而现在确实如此，小盘股往往会直接感受到这一点。</p>
<p>但这让我更兴奋的是，小盘股相对于历史仍然便宜。它们目前仅占罗素 3000 总市值的 4.6%，远低于历史平均的 7.6%。即使在这次反弹之后，小盘股和大盘股之间的估值差距仍然显著。</p>
<p>换句话说，趋势已经开始。但远未结束。</p>
<p>在经历了多年在巨头科技交易中扮演配角后，资本正在转向那些具有真实盈利增长和真正与美国经济相关的小型、国内公司。</p>
<p>如果你想谈谈季节性，只需看看下面的图表。它显示，在过去 20 年中，七月是小盘股表现第二强的月份，产生了 2.36% 的回报。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart2.png"/></p>
<p>这就在眼前，朋友们。</p>
<h2>找到下一个赢家的最佳地方</h2>
<p>底线是：这个夏天不是坐在旁观者席上的时候。</p>
<p>小盘股的机会是真实的。但你不能仅仅购买 <strong>iShares Russell 2000 ETF</strong> ( <strong>IWM</strong>) 然后就不管了。</p>
<p>你需要找到合适的股票。</p>
<p>我的 <strong>Stock Grader</strong> 系统正是为此而建立的。它每周评估大约 6000 只股票，基于两个信号：基础业务的健康状况以及机构资金是否开始在头条新闻之前悄然流入。</p>
<p>当这两个信号同时发出并持续一个月又一个月时，我会密切关注——因为收益通常会随之而来。</p>
<p>通过将 Stock Grader 纳入我的 <strong><em>Breakthrough Stocks</em></strong> 服务中，我专注于小型和中型公司，我的订阅者在 29 个持股中获得了 11 个三位数的收益。</p>
<p>这些公司在我的系统发出警报时都是较小且被忽视的公司。每一个都太小，无法引起华尔街最大的基金的关注。而且每一个都在早期展现出强劲的基本面和买入压力，随后才吸引了大众的注意。</p>
<p>下一个群体已经出现。事实上，我的系统已经标记了 53 只股票，显示出相同的早期信号……</p>
<p>上周，我举办了我的 <strong><em>10X 美联储冲击活动</em></strong>，在活动中我详细阐述了为什么我认为这是我几十年来看到的最重要的小盘股机会。我分享了我对这 53 只股票的最高信心选择，并且为了感谢参与，我免费赠送了一个名字。</p>
<p>您观看重播的机会将在今晚午夜关闭。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里立即观看重播。</strong></p>
<p>诚挚的，</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/louis_navellier-300x96.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/louis_navellier-300x96.png"/></p>
<p><strong>路易斯·纳维利尔</strong></p>
<p>编辑，<em>市场 360</em></p>

罗素 2000 成长股指数 ETF - iShares

罗素 2000 指数 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多罗素 2000 ETF - ProShares

<p>这篇文章反对传统的 “五月卖出” 建议，认为这可能导致今年的 costly mistakes。文章强调了小盘股的潜力，特别是最近表现优于标普 500 的罗素 2000 指数。作者指出，七月在历史上一直是市场的强劲月份，反驳了夏季月份表现疲软的观点。文中还提到了一份独家的小盘股观察名单</p>

<p>It happens every year like clockwork.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这每年都像时钟一样准时发生。</p>
</div><p>The calendar flips to May, and the financial media starts trotting out the same tired advice: Sell your stocks and go away until fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日历翻到五月，金融媒体开始重复那些老生常谈的建议：卖掉你的股票，等到秋天再回来。</p>
</div><p>I’ve never been a fan of this. And this year, I think following that advice could be one of the most expensive mistakes you could make.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我从来不喜欢这种做法。今年，我认为遵循这个建议可能是你能犯的最昂贵的错误之一。</p>
</div><p>In today’s <em>Market 360</em>, I want to explain why I think “sell in May” is exactly the wrong call this year. Then, I’ll make the case for what I believe could be what I call “the Summer of Small Caps.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的 <em>Market 360</em> 中，我想解释一下为什么我认为 “五月卖出” 在今年完全是错误的选择。然后，我将阐述我认为可能会成为 “小盘股的夏天” 的理由。</p>
</div><p>I’ll also tell you how to get your hands on an exclusive watchlist of small-cap stocks I’ve got my eye on, as well as how to gain access to my highest-conviction small-cap picks in <em>Breakthrough Stocks</em>. I shared all the details at my recent <strong><em>10X Fed Shock</em> event</strong> last week – and tonight at midnight is the last chance to view it. So, let’s not waste any time – let’s dive right in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我还会告诉你如何获取我关注的小盘股的独家观察名单，以及如何获得我在 <em>Breakthrough Stocks</em> 中最有信心的小盘股推荐。我在上周的 <strong><em>10X Fed Shock</em> 事件</strong> 中分享了所有细节——今晚午夜是观看的最后机会。所以，让我们不浪费时间，直接开始吧。</p>
</div><h2>Where “Sell in May” Comes From</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“五月卖出” 的来源</h2>
</div><p>First, a little history – because I think it’s worth understanding where “sell in May” actually originated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，稍微了解一下历史——因为我认为了解 “五月卖出” 实际上起源于哪里是值得的。</p>
</div><p>It didn’t start on Wall Street. It started in London in the 19th century. Back then, wealthy British financiers and stockbrokers would leave the city’s sweltering streets every summer for extended vacations in the countryside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是在华尔街开始的，而是在 19 世纪的伦敦开始的。那时，富有的英国金融家和股票经纪人每年夏天都会离开城市的酷热街道，去乡村度假。</p>
</div><p>That means trading volumes dropped. Markets went quiet. And stocks tended to drift sideways or lower until the money men returned in the fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着交易量下降，市场变得安静。股票往往在钱人秋天回来之前横盘或下跌。</p>
</div><p>The full saying was actually: “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>完整的说法实际上是：“五月卖出，离开，等到圣莱杰日再回来。”</p>
</div><p>The St. Leger Stakes is a famous fall horse race, the final leg of the British Triple Crown, dating back to 1776. So essentially, wealthy bankers were telling each other to check out of the market until the horse races in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圣莱杰赛是著名的秋季赛马，英国三冠赛的最后一场，追溯到 1776 年。因此，富有的银行家们实际上是在告诉彼此，在九月的赛马之前不要参与市场。</p>
</div><p>When this phenomenon was imported to Wall Street, it stuck. And for a while, it actually worked. From 1950 to about 2003, the data more or less supported it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当这一现象被引入华尔街时，它就留下了痕迹。并且在一段时间内，它确实有效。从 1950 年到 2003 年，数据或多或少支持这一观点。</p>
</div><p>But here’s the problem with that. Once everyone knows a system, it stops working. That’s true of trading strategies, market adages and everything in between.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但问题在于，一旦每个人都知道一个系统，它就不再有效。这对交易策略、市场谚语以及所有介于两者之间的东西都适用。</p>
</div><h2>What the Data Actually Shows</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数据实际上显示了什么</h2>
</div><p>Now, I’ll be fair. The summer months are not uniformly strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我会公平地说，夏季月份并不是统一强劲的。</p>
</div><p>August and September remain two of the weakest months on record. In the past 20 years, the S&amp;P 500 has produced an average return of just 0.05% in August and negative 0.67% in September. They’re positive only about half the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八月和九月仍然是记录上最弱的两个月。在过去 20 年中，标准普尔 500 在八月的平均回报仅为 0.05%，在九月为负 0.67%。它们只有大约一半的时间是正的。</p>
</div><p>Frankly, if I were in charge, I’d close the market for the entire month of August every year. That’s when the “A-team” heads to the Hamptons or jets off to Europe for vacation. The “B-team” gets left in charge, and the markets tend to drift without the pros at the helm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>坦率地说，如果我负责，我会每年关闭整个八月的市场。那时，“A 队” 会去汉普顿或飞往欧洲度假。“B 队” 被留下负责，市场往往在没有专业人士掌舵的情况下漂浮。</p>
</div><p>But here’s where the conventional wisdom breaks down. If you narrow the May through October window and look at the past 20 years, July has actually been the market’s best month overall – rising 2.54%. Not November. Not April. July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这就是传统智慧崩溃的地方。如果你缩小五月到十月的窗口，看看过去 20 年，七月实际上是市场表现最好的月份——上涨 2.54%。不是十一月，也不是四月，而是七月。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart1.png" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart1.png"/></p>
<p>So “sell in May and go away” doesn’t just leave you on the sidelines during the weak months. It leaves you sitting out some of the best trading days of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以 “五月卖出，离开” 不仅让你在弱势月份旁观。它还让你错过了一年中一些最佳的交易日。</p>
</div><h2>The Summer of Small Caps</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>小盘股的夏天</h2>
</div><p>Now, here’s where you could really go wrong if you follow the “sell in May” crowd this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，如果你在今年跟随 “五月卖出” 的人群，你可能会真正犯错。</p>
</div><p>Remember, the S&amp;P 500 only tracks large-cap companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>记住，标准普尔 500 只追踪大盘公司。</p>
</div><p>But right now, the small-cap Russell 2000 index is on fire. And I think this summer is going to be one of the best periods we’ve seen for smaller stocks in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在，小盘股的罗素 2000 指数正在火热上涨。我认为这个夏天将是我们多年未见的小盘股的最佳时期之一。</p>
</div><p>See, while everyone was focused on the Magnificent Seven and the AI mega-cap trade, a quiet rotation has been playing out in smaller companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，当每个人都专注于七大巨头和人工智能巨头交易时，小型公司的悄然轮换正在进行。</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, the Russell 2000 is up 31%, compared to 23% for the S&amp;P 500. And year to date, small caps are continuing to lead, up 11% versus the S&amp;P 500’s 7.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，罗素 2000 上涨了 31%，而标准普尔 500 上涨了 23%。截至目前，小盘股继续领先，上涨 11%，而标准普尔 500 上涨了 7.7%。</p>
</div><p>What makes small-cap companies interesting right now is that they are predominantly domestic. They don’t have the global exposure that makes large caps vulnerable to currency swings, geopolitical turbulence and foreign economic slowdowns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在小盘公司的有趣之处在于，它们主要是国内公司。它们没有大盘股那样的全球曝光度，使其容易受到货币波动、地缘政治动荡和外国经济放缓的影响。</p>
</div><p>When the U.S. economy is growing, and right now it is, small caps tend to feel it most directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美国经济增长时，而现在确实如此，小盘股往往会直接感受到这一点。</p>
</div><p>But here’s what makes me even more excited. Small caps are still cheap relative to history. They currently represent just 4.6% of the total Russell 3000 market cap, well below the historical average of 7.6%. The valuation gap between small caps and large caps remains significant even after this rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这让我更兴奋的是，小盘股相对于历史仍然便宜。它们目前仅占罗素 3000 总市值的 4.6%，远低于历史平均的 7.6%。即使在这次反弹之后，小盘股和大盘股之间的估值差距仍然显著。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the move has started. But it’s nowhere near over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，趋势已经开始。但远未结束。</p>
</div><p>After years of playing second fiddle to the mega-cap tech trade, capital is rotating toward smaller, domestically focused companies with real earnings growth and real exposure to the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了多年在巨头科技交易中扮演配角后，资本正在转向那些具有真实盈利增长和真正与美国经济相关的小型、国内公司。</p>
</div><p>And if you want to talk about seasonality, just look at the chart below. It shows that July has been the second-strongest month for small caps over the past 20 years, producing a 2.36% return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想谈谈季节性，只需看看下面的图表。它显示，在过去 20 年中，七月是小盘股表现第二强的月份，产生了 2.36% 的回报。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart2.png" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/spxchart2.png"/></p>
<p>That’s right around the corner, folks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就在眼前，朋友们。</p>
</div><h2>The Best Place to Find the Next Winners</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>找到下一个赢家的最佳地方</h2>
</div><p>Bottom line: This is not the summer to be sitting on the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底线是：这个夏天不是坐在旁观者席上的时候。</p>
</div><p>The small-cap opportunity is real. But you can’t just buy the <strong>iShares Russell 2000 ETF</strong> ( <strong>IWM</strong>) and walk away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小盘股的机会是真实的。但你不能仅仅购买 <strong>iShares Russell 2000 ETF</strong> ( <strong>IWM</strong>) 然后就不管了。</p>
</div><p>You need to find the right ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你需要找到合适的股票。</p>
</div><p>My <strong>Stock Grader</strong> system was built to do exactly that. It evaluates roughly 6,000 stocks every week on two signals: the health of the underlying business and whether institutional money is beginning to move in quietly ahead of the headlines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的 <strong>Stock Grader</strong> 系统正是为此而建立的。它每周评估大约 6000 只股票，基于两个信号：基础业务的健康状况以及机构资金是否开始在头条新闻之前悄然流入。</p>
</div><p>When both signals fire together and keep firing month after month, I pay close attention – because the gains usually follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当这两个信号同时发出并持续一个月又一个月时，我会密切关注——因为收益通常会随之而来。</p>
</div><p>By incorporating Stock Grader into my <strong><em>Breakthrough Stocks</em></strong> service, where I focus on small- and mid-cap companies, my subscribers are sitting on 11 triple-digit gains out of 29 holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过将 Stock Grader 纳入我的 <strong><em>Breakthrough Stocks</em></strong> 服务中，我专注于小型和中型公司，我的订阅者在 29 个持股中获得了 11 个三位数的收益。</p>
</div><p>Every one of these was a smaller, underfollowed company when my system flagged it. Every one was too small for the biggest Wall Street funds to touch. And every one showed the same early combination of strong fundamentals and buying pressure before the crowd showed up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司在我的系统发出警报时都是较小且被忽视的公司。每一个都太小，无法引起华尔街最大的基金的关注。而且每一个都在早期展现出强劲的基本面和买入压力，随后才吸引了大众的注意。</p>
</div><p>The next group is already out there. In fact, my system has flagged 53 stocks showing those same early signals…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个群体已经出现。事实上，我的系统已经标记了 53 只股票，显示出相同的早期信号……</p>
</div><p>Last week, I hosted my <strong><em>10X Fed Shock event</em></strong>, where I laid out the full case for why I believe this is the most significant small-cap opportunity I’ve seen in decades. I shared my highest-conviction picks from those 53 stocks. And I gave away one name for free just for attending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，我举办了我的 <strong><em>10X 美联储冲击活动</em></strong>，在活动中我详细阐述了为什么我认为这是我几十年来看到的最重要的小盘股机会。我分享了我对这 53 只股票的最高信心选择，并且为了感谢参与，我免费赠送了一个名字。</p>
</div><p>Your chance to watch a replay closes at midnight tonight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您观看重播的机会将在今晚午夜关闭。</p>
</div><p><strong>Go here to watch the replay now.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里立即观看重播。</strong></p>
</div><p>Sincerely,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚挚的，</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/louis_navellier-300x96.png" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/louis_navellier-300x96.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Louis Navellier</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>路易斯·纳维利尔</strong></p>
</div><p>Editor, <em>Market 360</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>编辑，<em>市场 360</em></p>
</div>

忘记 “五月卖出”——今年夏天可能是小盘股的季节