<p>分析师表示，日本央行可能在 6 月的政策会议上放慢或暂停其债券购买缩减，因为收益率上升和市场波动使其资产负债表正常化计划变得复杂。</p>
<p>相关：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本财政大臣片山：准备在外汇方面采取果断行动</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong> 据路透社报道，引用分析师和熟悉日本央行思维的消息来源：</p>
<ul>
<li>日本央行正在考虑是否在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的政策会议上放慢或暂停其量化紧缩计划，目前尚未就 2027 财年的缩减速度做出具体决定</li>
<li>目前有三种选择：完全暂停，保持每月约 2 万亿日元的购买速度，维持每季度减少 2000 亿日元，或将减速调整为每季度 1000 亿日元</li>
<li>外界普遍预计日本央行将在 6 月会议上提高短期利率，并可能选择同时软化其缩减立场，以避免在两个方面同时收紧的印象</li>
<li>日本央行持有约 49% 的所有未偿日本国债，本周与债券投资者的会议被视为最终缩减决策的关键输入</li>
<li>三菱 UFJ 摩根士丹利证券的分析师倾向于在当前债券市场不稳定的情况下完全暂停缩减，而住友三井信托资产管理的分析师则认为每季度减速至 1000 亿日元的可能性更大</li>
<li>日本央行认为没有立即进行紧急债券购买操作的必要，消息来源指出，反映财政和货币基本面的收益率波动是市场正常运作的标志，而非功能失调。</li>
</ul>
<p>分析师表示，日本央行正在权衡是否在下个月的政策会议上放慢或暂停其债券购买缩减计划，因为日本国债收益率上升和更广泛的市场波动对其正常化数十年来超宽松货币政策所形成的资产负债表的计划施加了压力。</p>
<p>在行长上田和夫的领导下，日本央行自 2024 年以来逐步减少每月的债券购买，每季度减少约 2000 亿日元，作为解除非常规刺激措施的更广泛努力的一部分。该央行目前持有约 500 万亿日元的债券，相当于所有未偿日本国债的约 49%，这使得其在减速速度上的决策对收益率和日本庞大国债的服务成本产生了重大影响。</p>
<p>分析师指出，日本央行在 6 月 15 日至 16 日会议上有三条可行路径。它可以完全暂停缩减，将每月购买保持在约 2 万亿日元，这一举措将表明其优先考虑市场稳定。它可以维持每季度减少 2000 亿日元的现有速度，强化其对稳定正常化的承诺。或者它可以寻求中间道路，将减速调整为每季度 1000 亿日元。分析师对日本央行将选择哪个选项存在分歧，有些人倾向于在当前市场条件下完全暂停，而另一些人则预计会进行更温和的调整。</p>
<p>这一决策因日本央行在同一会议上也可能提高短期利率而变得复杂。同步加息和持续激进的缩减将冒着发出双重收紧信号的风险，而政策制定者似乎希望避免这种情况。在加息的同时放慢缩减将允许日本央行收紧其主要货币杠杆，同时向债券市场提供一些流动性条件的保证。</p>
<p>本周与债券市场投资者的会议被视为最终决策的关键输入，日本央行利用这些会议来评估市场对调整速度的偏好，然后再决定行动方案。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>日本央行任何准备放慢或暂停其量化紧缩计划的信号，将为日本国债市场提供短期缓解，因为该市场在收益率上升和财政担忧加深的情况下持续承压。暂停缩减将有效减少每月进入市场的日本国债供应，支持价格并限制收益率上升，这对全球固定收益市场产生连锁影响，因为日本是外国债券的主要持有者。加息与缩减放缓的结合将发出混合信号：短期利率收紧，资产负债表放松，这一组合可能是日本央行故意使用的，以避免在两个方面同时收紧的印象。由于日本央行仍持有 49% 的所有未偿日本国债，其每一步行动都对市场产生重大影响。</p>

日本指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>分析师建议，由于收益率上升和市场波动，日本银行（BOJ）可能在 6 月会议上放慢或暂停其债券购买缩减。考虑了三种选择：完全暂停、维持当前的减持速度或适度放缓。BOJ 还预计将提高短期利率，这使其决策更加复杂。本周与债券投资者的会议将为最终的缩减决策提供信息，这可能对日本政府债券市场和全球固定收益产生影响</p>

<p>The Bank of Japan may slow or pause its bond purchase tapering at the June policy meeting, analysts say, as rising yields and market volatility complicate its balance sheet normalisation plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，日本央行可能在 6 月的政策会议上放慢或暂停其债券购买缩减，因为收益率上升和市场波动使其资产负债表正常化计划变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>Related:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相关：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan's Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forex</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本财政大臣片山：准备在外汇方面采取果断行动</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong> According to Reuters, citing analysts and sources familiar with BOJ thinking:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong> 据路透社报道，引用分析师和熟悉日本央行思维的消息来源：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The BOJ is considering whether to slow or pause its quantitative tightening programme at the June 15-16 policy meeting, with no decision yet made on the exact pace of tapering for fiscal 2027</li>
<li>Three options are seen on the table: a full pause at the current buying pace of around 2 trillion yen per month, maintaining the existing reduction of 200 billion yen per quarter, or a more modest slowdown to 100 billion yen per quarter</li>
<li>The BOJ is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates at the June meeting and may opt to soften its taper stance simultaneously to avoid the appearance of tightening on two fronts at once</li>
<li>The BOJ holds around 49% of all outstanding Japanese government bonds, and meetings with bond investors this week are seen as a key input into the final taper decision</li>
<li>Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities favour a full taper pause given current bond market instability, while analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management see a slowdown to 100 billion yen per quarter as more likely</li>
<li>The BOJ sees no immediate need for emergency bond-buying operations, with sources noting that yield moves reflecting fiscal and monetary fundamentals are a sign of proper market functioning rather than dysfunction</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本央行正在考虑是否在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的政策会议上放慢或暂停其量化紧缩计划，目前尚未就 2027 财年的缩减速度做出具体决定</li>
<li>目前有三种选择：完全暂停，保持每月约 2 万亿日元的购买速度，维持每季度减少 2000 亿日元，或将减速调整为每季度 1000 亿日元</li>
<li>外界普遍预计日本央行将在 6 月会议上提高短期利率，并可能选择同时软化其缩减立场，以避免在两个方面同时收紧的印象</li>
<li>日本央行持有约 49% 的所有未偿日本国债，本周与债券投资者的会议被视为最终缩减决策的关键输入</li>
<li>三菱 UFJ 摩根士丹利证券的分析师倾向于在当前债券市场不稳定的情况下完全暂停缩减，而住友三井信托资产管理的分析师则认为每季度减速至 1000 亿日元的可能性更大</li>
<li>日本央行认为没有立即进行紧急债券购买操作的必要，消息来源指出，反映财政和货币基本面的收益率波动是市场正常运作的标志，而非功能失调。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is weighing whether to slow or suspend its bond purchase tapering programme at next month's policy meeting, analysts say, as rising Japanese government bond yields and broader market volatility put pressure on its plans to normalise a balance sheet built up over decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，日本央行正在权衡是否在下个月的政策会议上放慢或暂停其债券购买缩减计划，因为日本国债收益率上升和更广泛的市场波动对其正常化数十年来超宽松货币政策所形成的资产负债表的计划施加了压力。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ has been gradually reducing its monthly bond purchases since 2024 under Governor Kazuo Ueda, trimming buying by around 200 billion yen each quarter as part of a broader push to unwind extraordinary stimulus. The central bank currently holds around 500 trillion yen in bonds, equivalent to roughly 49% of all Japanese government bonds outstanding, giving its decisions on the pace of reduction an outsized influence on yields and on the cost of servicing Japan's substantial national debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在行长上田和夫的领导下，日本央行自 2024 年以来逐步减少每月的债券购买，每季度减少约 2000 亿日元，作为解除非常规刺激措施的更广泛努力的一部分。该央行目前持有约 500 万亿日元的债券，相当于所有未偿日本国债的约 49%，这使得其在减速速度上的决策对收益率和日本庞大国债的服务成本产生了重大影响。</p>
</div><p>Analysts identify three paths available to the BOJ at its June 15-16 meeting. It could pause the taper entirely, holding monthly purchases steady at around 2 trillion yen, a move that would signal its priority is market stability. It could maintain the existing reduction pace of 200 billion yen per quarter, reinforcing its commitment to steady normalisation. Or it could seek a middle course, slowing the reduction to 100 billion yen per quarter. Analysts are divided on which option the BOJ will choose, with some favouring a full pause given current market conditions and others expecting a more modest adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，日本央行在 6 月 15 日至 16 日会议上有三条可行路径。它可以完全暂停缩减，将每月购买保持在约 2 万亿日元，这一举措将表明其优先考虑市场稳定。它可以维持每季度减少 2000 亿日元的现有速度，强化其对稳定正常化的承诺。或者它可以寻求中间道路，将减速调整为每季度 1000 亿日元。分析师对日本央行将选择哪个选项存在分歧，有些人倾向于在当前市场条件下完全暂停，而另一些人则预计会进行更温和的调整。</p>
</div><p>The decision is complicated by the likelihood that the BOJ will also raise short-term interest rates at the same meeting. A simultaneous rate hike and continued aggressive taper would risk sending a double-tightening signal that policymakers appear keen to avoid. Slowing the taper while raising rates would allow the BOJ to tighten its primary monetary lever while offering bond markets some reassurance on liquidity conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一决策因日本央行在同一会议上也可能提高短期利率而变得复杂。同步加息和持续激进的缩减将冒着发出双重收紧信号的风险，而政策制定者似乎希望避免这种情况。在加息的同时放慢缩减将允许日本央行收紧其主要货币杠杆，同时向债券市场提供一些流动性条件的保证。</p>
</div><p>Meetings with bond market investors scheduled for this week are seen as a critical input into the final decision, with the BOJ using the sessions to gauge the market's preferred pace of adjustment before committing to a course of action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周与债券市场投资者的会议被视为最终决策的关键输入，日本央行利用这些会议来评估市场对调整速度的偏好，然后再决定行动方案。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Any signal from the BOJ that it is prepared to slow or pause its quantitative tightening programme would provide near-term relief to Japanese government bond markets, which have been under sustained pressure as yields rise and fiscal concerns deepen. A pause in taper would effectively reduce the supply of JGBs hitting the market each month, supporting prices and capping yield rises, with knock-on implications for global fixed income given Japan's role as a major holder of foreign bonds. A rate hike combined with a taper slowdown would present a mixed signal: tighter on short rates, looser on the balance sheet, a combination the BOJ may use deliberately to avoid the impression of an aggressive simultaneous tightening on two fronts. With the BOJ still holding 49% of all outstanding JGBs, its every move carries outsized market consequences.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行任何准备放慢或暂停其量化紧缩计划的信号，将为日本国债市场提供短期缓解，因为该市场在收益率上升和财政担忧加深的情况下持续承压。暂停缩减将有效减少每月进入市场的日本国债供应，支持价格并限制收益率上升，这对全球固定收益市场产生连锁影响，因为日本是外国债券的主要持有者。加息与缩减放缓的结合将发出混合信号：短期利率收紧，资产负债表放松，这一组合可能是日本央行故意使用的，以避免在两个方面同时收紧的印象。由于日本央行仍持有 49% 的所有未偿日本国债，其每一步行动都对市场产生重大影响。</p>
</div>

BOJ may slow or pause bond taper at June meeting, analysts say

Investinglive

汤森路透

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

三菱日联金融集团

摩根士丹利

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

分析师表示，日本央行可能会在六月的会议上放缓或暂停债券缩减计划