<p>从当前大量的研讨会、会议、论文、文章和社交媒体炒作来看，人们可以理解地得出结论，电子支付的未来将集中在稳定币上，这一如今被商业界认可的加密货币面貌。</p>
<p>不再需要在笨重、昂贵且限制重重的传统金融与多种潜在的虚幻之物——或加密货币之间进行选择。</p>
<p>稳定币是与法定资产挂钩的私营发行数字代币，基于分布式账本技术基础设施。</p>
<p>因此，它将提供数字领域所提供的速度、低成本和对国界的无差别，同时具备传统法定支付工具所验证的安全价值存储和可靠性。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特建议，到 2030 年，稳定币所占支付的价值可能达到 3 万亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，国际清算银行表示，目前发行的稳定币的价值仅接近 3150 亿美元，而例如美国银行存款的总额约为 8 万亿美元。</p>
<p>麦肯锡和阿尔忒弥斯分析的研究发现，实际的稳定币支付量仅为 3900 亿美元，约占全球支付总量的 0.02%。</p>
<p>这与内部区块链账本平衡等操作不同。</p>
<p>因此，目前存在很多热议，但实际应用却寥寥无几。</p>
<p>许多中央银行正在对稳定币的各个方面进行研究。</p>
<p>他们表示愿意考虑在量身定制和适当的监管监督下处理这一问题。但热切的主流发行者的队伍尚未形成。</p>
<h2>缺乏热情</h2>
<p>潜在的大规模私营部门用户的犹豫并不难理解。</p>
<p>首先，稳定币的确切法律地位尚未在国际上得到明确规定。</p>
<p>它在案例法中仍然缺乏验证。它是数字资产、持票债券、欠条还是赌场筹码？</p>
<p>不同稳定币之间、承载它们的平台或其所处的监管辖区之间的互操作性非常低且不标准化。</p>
<p>这种情况可能会持续下去。</p>
<p>其次，许多为稳定币提出的商业应用案例并不独特。大多数可以通过现有的基础设施和程序实现，风险相似或更低。</p>
<p>这里的复杂因素是不存在单一货币。</p>
<p>尽管稳定币声称相反，但它们并不是由明确的法定货币支持的完全可替代工具——结算绝对由中央银行及其背后的国家即时保证。</p>
<p>因此，毫不奇怪的是——除了少数几个显著例外——官方货币和金融机构论坛（OMFIF）听到主要中央银行和金融监管机构对批发稳定币的热情明显不足。</p>
<p>最近的聚会显示，这些机构对稳定币及其在金融系统中的运作方式仍然存在严重保留。</p>
<h2>三大挑战</h2>
<p>三大主要担忧反复浮现。</p>
<p>首先，最显著且可以说是最哲学的问题是，稳定币被认为对货币的单一性构成威胁——或者说，对法定货币本身的整个宇宙和精神构成威胁。</p>
<p>只有国家才能发行、流通和保证交换手段的概念，最终由武力支持，这是古老的、神圣的、普遍的且成功的。</p>
<p>稳定币威胁到这种平衡。</p>
<p>其次，被认为对商业监管银行系统的稳定性构成威胁，特别是有偿非银行稳定币可能会从商业银行吸引大量存款，从而提高对实体经济的贷款成本。</p>
<p>第三个问题是关于在无托管区块链加密钱包中缺乏客户透明度的担忧，以及因此而导致的稳定币在洗钱、恐怖融资或其他犯罪活动中的风险。</p>
<p>就大规模、普遍的部署而言，私营部门的冷漠与公共部门的谨慎结合，可能会阻止批发稳定币的狂潮。</p>
<p>一些成功的细分应用可能会被实施，但它们将相对较小。</p>
<p>它们还将在明确界定和严格监管的应用中运作，系统性传染的可能性较低。</p>
<p>在更广泛的领域，批发稳定币将是一个寻找问题的解决方案。</p>
<p>对于许多声称稳定币是答案的领域，未来可能属于用于交易的代币化存款，由批发数字中央银行货币结算。但那是另一个故事。OMFIF</p>
<p><strong>作者是 OMFIF 的副主席</strong></p>

CRCL

COIN

GLXY

区块链 ETF - Amplify

<p>电子支付的未来可能依赖于稳定币，这是一种与法定资产挂钩的数字代币。尽管预测到 2030 年市场规模将达到 3 万亿美元，但目前稳定币的使用仍然很有限，实际支付仅为 3900 亿美元。中央银行对此表示谨慎，原因在于法律不确定性和对传统银行的潜在威胁。人们担忧的包括对货币稳定性的影响、对银行系统的风险以及透明度问题。尽管可能会出现小众应用，但广泛采用面临重大障碍</p>

<p>JUDGING from the current flood of seminars, conferences, papers, articles and social-media hype, one can be forgiven for concluding that the future of electronic payments is going to be centred on stablecoins, the now commercially respectable face of crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从当前大量的研讨会、会议、论文、文章和社交媒体炒作来看，人们可以理解地得出结论，电子支付的未来将集中在稳定币上，这一如今被商业界认可的加密货币面貌。</p>
</div><p>The need to choose between clunky, expensive and restrictive traditional finance on the one hand and multiple varieties of potential fairy dust – or cryptocurrency – on the other is no longer necessary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不再需要在笨重、昂贵且限制重重的传统金融与多种潜在的虚幻之物——或加密货币之间进行选择。</p>
</div><p>Stablecoins are privately issued digital tokens with value tied to fiat assets carried on distributed ledger technology infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定币是与法定资产挂钩的私营发行数字代币，基于分布式账本技术基础设施。</p>
</div><p>It will henceforth offer the speed, low cost and indifference to national frontiers offered by the digital realm, with the safe store of value and fidelity validated by traditional fiat payment instruments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，它将提供数字领域所提供的速度、低成本和对国界的无差别，同时具备传统法定支付工具所验证的安全价值存储和可靠性。</p>
</div><p>Against this background, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that the value of payments accounted for by stablecoins can reach US$3 trillion by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特建议，到 2030 年，稳定币所占支付的价值可能达到 3 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Yet, the Bank for International Settlements has said that the value of stablecoins currently in issue approaches just US$315 billion compared with, for example, around US$8 trillion held in US bank deposits alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，国际清算银行表示，目前发行的稳定币的价值仅接近 3150 亿美元，而例如美国银行存款的总额约为 8 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Research by McKinsey and Artemis Analytics has found that the actual volume of real stablecoin payments amounts to a mere US$390 billion, or around 0.02 per cent of global payments volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦肯锡和阿尔忒弥斯分析的研究发现，实际的稳定币支付量仅为 3900 亿美元，约占全球支付总量的 0.02%。</p>
</div><p>This is as opposed to internal blockchain book-balancing exercises and the like.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与内部区块链账本平衡等操作不同。</p>
</div><p>So, for the moment, lots of sizzling but few sausages exist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，目前存在很多热议，但实际应用却寥寥无几。</p>
</div><p>Numerous central banks have been conducting studies on various aspects of stablecoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多中央银行正在对稳定币的各个方面进行研究。</p>
</div><p>They have been expressing their willingness to consider the issue with bespoke and appropriate regulatory supervision. But the queues of eager and mainstream issuers have yet to form.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们表示愿意考虑在量身定制和适当的监管监督下处理这一问题。但热切的主流发行者的队伍尚未形成。</p>
</div><h2>Lack of enthusiasm</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>缺乏热情</h2>
</div><p>It is not hard to understand the reticence among potential large-scale private-sector users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>潜在的大规模私营部门用户的犹豫并不难理解。</p>
</div><p>For one thing, the exact legal status of a stablecoin has yet to be internationally codified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，稳定币的确切法律地位尚未在国际上得到明确规定。</p>
</div><p>It is still less validated by case law. Is it a digital asset, bearer bond, IOU or casino chip?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在案例法中仍然缺乏验证。它是数字资产、持票债券、欠条还是赌场筹码？</p>
</div><p>Interoperability, be that between various stablecoins, the platforms on which they are carried or the regulatory jurisdictions in which they are based, is very low and unstandardised.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不同稳定币之间、承载它们的平台或其所处的监管辖区之间的互操作性非常低且不标准化。</p>
</div><p>It is likely to remain so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况可能会持续下去。</p>
</div><p>For another, many of the business-use cases advanced for stablecoins are hardly unique. Most are achievable using existing rails and procedures, with similar or less risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，许多为稳定币提出的商业应用案例并不独特。大多数可以通过现有的基础设施和程序实现，风险相似或更低。</p>
</div><p>The complicating factor here is that no singleness of money exists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里的复杂因素是不存在单一货币。</p>
</div><p>Despite their pretensions to the contrary, stablecoins are not perfectly fungible instruments backed by unequivocal fiat money – with settlement instantly and at par absolutely guaranteed by a central bank and the nation that stands behind it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管稳定币声称相反，但它们并不是由明确的法定货币支持的完全可替代工具——结算绝对由中央银行及其背后的国家即时保证。</p>
</div><p>It is therefore not surprising that – with one or two notable exceptions – the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) has heard a distinct lack of enthusiasm from major central banks and financial supervisors on wholesale stablecoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，毫不奇怪的是——除了少数几个显著例外——官方货币和金融机构论坛（OMFIF）听到主要中央银行和金融监管机构对批发稳定币的热情明显不足。</p>
</div><p>Recent gatherings have shown that these institutions still have severe reservations about stablecoins – and the way they might operate within the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的聚会显示，这些机构对稳定币及其在金融系统中的运作方式仍然存在严重保留。</p>
</div><h2>Three major challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三大挑战</h2>
</div><p>Three major concerns repeatedly surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三大主要担忧反复浮现。</p>
</div><p>The first, most salient and arguably the most philosophical, is the threat that stablecoins are perceived to present to the singleness of money – or indeed, to the whole universe and ethos of fiat currency itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，最显著且可以说是最哲学的问题是，稳定币被认为对货币的单一性构成威胁——或者说，对法定货币本身的整个宇宙和精神构成威胁。</p>
</div><p>The concept that only the state can issue, circulate and guarantee the means of exchange, ultimately backed by force of arms, is ancient, sanctified, pervasive and successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有国家才能发行、流通和保证交换手段的概念，最终由武力支持，这是古老的、神圣的、普遍的且成功的。</p>
</div><p>Stablecoins threaten to upset this equilibrium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定币威胁到这种平衡。</p>
</div><p>Second is the perceived threat to the stability of the commercially regulated banking system, in particular the potential for remunerated non-bank stablecoins to draw significant deposits away from commercial banks, thereby raising the costs of lending to the real economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，被认为对商业监管银行系统的稳定性构成威胁，特别是有偿非银行稳定币可能会从商业银行吸引大量存款，从而提高对实体经济的贷款成本。</p>
</div><p>The third issue is about concerns regarding the lack of customer transparency in unhosted blockchain-crypto wallets, and the risks thereby of the deployment of stablecoins in money laundering, terrorist financing or other criminal enterprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三个问题是关于在无托管区块链加密钱包中缺乏客户透明度的担忧，以及因此而导致的稳定币在洗钱、恐怖融资或其他犯罪活动中的风险。</p>
</div><p>As far as mass, universal deployment is concerned, this combination of private-sector indifference coupled with public-sector caution is likely to head off the wholesale stablecoin stampede at the pass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就大规模、普遍的部署而言，私营部门的冷漠与公共部门的谨慎结合，可能会阻止批发稳定币的狂潮。</p>
</div><p>Some successful niche applications will probably be put into place, but they will be relatively small.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些成功的细分应用可能会被实施，但它们将相对较小。</p>
</div><p>They will also operate in clearly defined and tightly regulated applications, with a low possibility of systemic contagion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们还将在明确界定和严格监管的应用中运作，系统性传染的可能性较低。</p>
</div><p>In the wider sphere, wholesale stablecoins will be a solution looking for a problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更广泛的领域，批发稳定币将是一个寻找问题的解决方案。</p>
</div><p>For many of the fields in which stablecoins claim to be the answer, the future probably belongs to tokenised deposits used for trading, to be settled by wholesale digital central-bank money. But that is another story. OMFIF</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于许多声称稳定币是答案的领域，未来可能属于用于交易的代币化存款，由批发数字中央银行货币结算。但那是另一个故事。OMFIF</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is deputy chairman of OMFIF</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是 OMFIF 的副主席</strong></p>
</div>

Wholesale stablecoins: fad or future?

- 预计稳定币在 2030 年前支付价值可达 3 万亿美元。  
- 目前稳定币市场仅约 3150 亿美元，实际支付量为 3900 亿美元。  
- 中央银行对稳定币存在顾虑，主要涉及货币单一性和银行稳定性等问题。

批发稳定币是昙花一现还是未来趋势？