<p>根据 KFF 的最新分析，今年大约有 500 万人可能会失去《平价医疗法案》市场的覆盖，原因是增强的保费税收抵免在 2025 年到期。</p>
<p>去年是《平价医疗法案》市场连续四年登记人数创纪录增长的一年，这在很大程度上归功于增强的保费税收抵免使家庭的月度费用更加可负担，许多计划在很多情况下提供$0 的保费。</p>
<p>然而，到 2025 年底，延长税收抵免的协议未能达成，国会似乎已经基本停止了恢复谈判。</p>
<p>2026 年，登记人数首次下降，约有 120 万人减少了参保人数。预计这一数字将在全年内继续增长，因为家庭在应对更高的保费时面临困难。</p>
<p>KFF 最新的分析于周二发布，估计大约 480 万到 580 万人可能会失去覆盖，其中相当一部分人正好处于 “补贴悬崖” 之上。</p>
<p>KFF 的分析发现，“总体而言，已知收入高于补贴悬崖的消费者在 2025 年的登记中仅占 7%，但在 2025 年至 2026 年的计划选择下降中几乎占了一半（48%）。(大约有 100 万消费者的家庭收入未知，因此实际高于补贴悬崖的消费者比例可能更高。)”。</p>
<p>市场计划选择在 41 个州下降，其中北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和印第安纳州的登记人数下降幅度最大。</p>
<p>平均每月保费支付也上涨了 58%，平均增加了 65 美元。</p>
<p>总体而言，18 至 34 岁的成年人是登记人数下降幅度最大的年龄组。分析师预测，年轻人将受到税收抵免到期的最大影响，因为他们通过雇主获得稳定覆盖的可能性较小。</p>
<p>当医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心（CMS）在 3 月发布《平价医疗法案》登记数据时，该机构似乎暗示登记人数下降部分是由于政府对欺诈行为的打击。</p>
<p>CMS 在其新闻稿中写道：“在 2025 年，CMS 采取了重大执法行动，以识别和取消不当登记，保护纳税人和消费者：我们终止了对近 150 万人提前支付保费税收抵免（APTC）或在 HealthCare.gov 平台上未经授权登记的覆盖。”</p>

<p>KFF 的分析表明，由于 2025 年增强型保费税收抵免的到期，预计今年约有 500 万人可能失去 ACA 市场的保险覆盖。注册人数已经在四年来首次下降，年轻成年人中下降幅度显著。平均月保费上涨了 58%，加剧了这一情况。注册人数的下降归因于税收抵免的到期以及 CMS 对不当注册的执法行动</p>

<p>Roughly 5 million people could lose coverage from the Affordable Care Act Marketplace this year after the enhanced premium tax credits expired in 2025, according to the latest analysis from KFF.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 KFF 的最新分析，今年大约有 500 万人可能会失去《平价医疗法案》市场的覆盖，原因是增强的保费税收抵免在 2025 年到期。</p>
</div><p>Last year marked four consecutive years of record growth in enrollment from the ACA Marketplace, due in large part to the enhanced premium tax credits making monthly costs more affordable for families, with plans in many cases offering $0 premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年是《平价医疗法案》市场连续四年登记人数创纪录增长的一年，这在很大程度上归功于增强的保费税收抵免使家庭的月度费用更加可负担，许多计划在很多情况下提供$0 的保费。</p>
</div><p>By the end of 2025, however, a deal to extend credits failed to come together, and Congress appears to have largely moved on from talks of reviving them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，到 2025 年底，延长税收抵免的协议未能达成，国会似乎已经基本停止了恢复谈判。</p>
</div><p>Enrollment fell for the first time in four years in 2026, with about 1.2 million fewer people signing up for coverage. This number is expected to grow throughout the year as households struggle to keep up with higher premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年，登记人数首次下降，约有 120 万人减少了参保人数。预计这一数字将在全年内继续增长，因为家庭在应对更高的保费时面临困难。</p>
</div><p>KFF’s latest analysis, released Tuesday, estimates that around 4.8 million to 5.8 million people could lose coverage, with a significant portion of these people being those just above the “subsidy cliff.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KFF 最新的分析于周二发布，估计大约 480 万到 580 万人可能会失去覆盖，其中相当一部分人正好处于 “补贴悬崖” 之上。</p>
</div><p>“Overall, consumers with incomes known to be above the subsidy cliff made up just 7% of 2025 enrollment but nearly half (48%) of the decline in plan selections from 2025 to 2026. (There are about 1 million consumers for whom household income is unknown, so the actual share of consumers who are above the subsidy cliff may be higher.),” KFF’s analysis found.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KFF 的分析发现，“总体而言，已知收入高于补贴悬崖的消费者在 2025 年的登记中仅占 7%，但在 2025 年至 2026 年的计划选择下降中几乎占了一半（48%）。(大约有 100 万消费者的家庭收入未知，因此实际高于补贴悬崖的消费者比例可能更高。)”。</p>
</div><p>Marketplace plan selections fell in 41 states, with North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana being among those that saw the highest drops in enrollment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场计划选择在 41 个州下降，其中北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和印第安纳州的登记人数下降幅度最大。</p>
</div><p>Average monthly premium payments have also risen by 58 percent, going up by $65 on average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均每月保费支付也上涨了 58%，平均增加了 65 美元。</p>
</div><p>Overall, adults 18-34 years old represented the age group with the largest decrease in enrollment. Analysts had predicted that younger people would be most impacted by the tax credits expiring because they are less likely to have stable coverage through an employer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，18 至 34 岁的成年人是登记人数下降幅度最大的年龄组。分析师预测，年轻人将受到税收抵免到期的最大影响，因为他们通过雇主获得稳定覆盖的可能性较小。</p>
</div><p>When the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released ACA enrollment figures in March, the agency appeared to suggest the drop in sign-ups was due in part to the administration’s crackdown on fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心（CMS）在 3 月发布《平价医疗法案》登记数据时，该机构似乎暗示登记人数下降部分是由于政府对欺诈行为的打击。</p>
</div><p>“In 2025, CMS took significant enforcement action to identify and remove improper enrollments, protecting taxpayers and consumers: we ended advance payment of the premium tax credit (APTC) or coverage for nearly 1.5 million people found to be either ineligible for financial assistance, or enrolled without their authorization on the HealthCare.gov platform,” CMS wrote in its press release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMS 在其新闻稿中写道：“在 2025 年，CMS 采取了重大执法行动，以识别和取消不当登记，保护纳税人和消费者：我们终止了对近 150 万人提前支付保费税收抵免（APTC）或在 HealthCare.gov 平台上未经授权登记的覆盖。”</p>
</div>

分析显示，可能有 500 万人会从 ACA 市场中退出保险覆盖