<ul>
<li>加拿大通胀低于预期，尽管伊朗战争导致油价震荡</li>
<li>加拿大央行核心通胀指标已低于第二季度预测</li>
<li>加拿大经济意外数据自 2022 年 10 月以来最弱</li>
<li>尽管美元强劲，美元/加元却出现顶部信号</li>
<li>重复在 1.3750 上方被拒绝，警示上涨动能可能正在减弱</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元/加元拒绝遵循预期</h2>
<p>加拿大刚刚发布的通胀数据低于预期，本应使美元/加元像火箭一样上涨，尤其是在周二美元对其他主要货币大幅上涨的情况下。然而，该货币对却出现了看似顶部信号的走势。再加上加拿大和美国之间经济动能的日益分化，从基本面来看，美元/加元本应在低谷中被打得粉碎。但事实并非如此。</p>
<h2>温和通胀云雾笼罩鹰派的加拿大央行前景</h2>
<p>通胀的细节进一步加深了这一难题。4 月份，消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.8%，低于预期的 3.1%，尽管由于伊朗战争导致汽油价格飙升。按月计算，CPI 上涨 0.4%，低于预期的 0.7%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>更重要的是，对于加拿大央行而言，潜在的通胀脉动进一步减弱。CPI 中位数的年增长率从 2.3% 放缓至 2.1%，而 CPI 修剪的年增长率从 2.2% 降至 2.0%。两者的平均值，加拿大央行偏好的核心通胀指标现在为 2.05%，已经低于该行自己对第二季度 2.1% 的预测，仅在季度开始一个月后。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为这质疑市场是否对加拿大央行在今年晚些时候加息的预期过于激进。加拿大央行一再警告，第二轮通胀效应可能会嵌入更广泛的定价行为中，但到目前为止，数据中几乎没有出现这种情况的证据。</p>
<h2>经济动能有利于美元</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：LSEG</p>
<p>更广泛的宏观背景进一步加深了矛盾。加拿大的 Citi 经济意外指数（红色）已降至自 2022 年 10 月以来的最低水平，而美国的同类指数（蓝色）则稳固在正值区域，继续保持近一年的趋势。简单来说，加拿大的数据越来越低于预期，而美国的数据则持续超出预期。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为国内经济的疲软应该有助于降低加拿大央行警告的第二轮通胀效应嵌入更广泛定价行为的风险。然而，尽管有这种背景，市场仍然暗示到 10 月有约 80% 的可能性加息 25 个基点。这似乎非常激进。</p>
<h2>价格走势胜过宏观</h2>
<p>美元/加元的独特结构可能解释了宏观的分歧。与大多数主要外汇对不同的是，几乎没有证据表明它受到任何单一宏观因素的紧密驱动，无论是利率、风险情绪还是油价。</p>
<p>在这种环境下，这一点尤为重要，因为美国和加拿大都是主要的能源出口国。尽管中东的地缘政治紧张局势在外汇市场上引发了剧烈波动，但由于两国经济都受到相同的有利贸易条件冲击，美元/加元的相对影响似乎远不如其他货币对明显。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>上面的相关性矩阵进一步强化了这一观点。在过去一个月中，美元/加元与标准普尔 500 期货的关系仅为-0.47，且与布伦特原油的正相关关系也仅为 0.12。与美国国债期货的关系也不一致，在同一时期与美国两年期国债期货的关系为-0.34，且在更长的时间范围内进一步减弱。</p>
<p>换句话说，美元/加元目前缺乏在其他主要货币对中常见的明显宏观关系。这也是我最近更重视价格走势而不是试图将每一次波动强行解释为基本面的原因。</p>
<h2>空头再次捍卫 1.3750</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>正如本月早些时候正确指出的，我们在 5 月份看到美元/加元出现了不错的上涨，回撤了 4 月份下跌的一半。然而，尽管这一趋势不可否认，但请看看过去三个交易日 1.3750 上方的价格走势。它在去年底以来的较长时间内既充当支撑又阻力，且在该水平上出现了三次连续的大顶部影线，但没有成功收盘在该水平上，这让人感觉市场真的不想看到该货币对上涨。</p>
<p>周二的蜡烛图尤其突出，呈现出类似于流星的形态，这是一种看跌反转模式，警示潜在的下行风险。国内数据疲软，美元在其他地方强劲，空头仍然排队将其推回 1.3750 以下。这值得关注。</p>
<p>尽管振荡指标目前在方向风险上发出最温和的看涨信号，RSI（14）在 50 以上，而 MACD 在本月早些时候已转为正值，但这一信息并不明确。如果价格走势反映了未来的走势，空头布局可能会成为选择。</p>
<p>如果价格继续在 1.3750 上方挣扎，或今天无法重新夺回该水平，则可以在下方建立头寸，止损设置在上方以保护，目标指向更低的水平。早期阶段，有几个关键水平可能为空头提供早期障碍，50 日和 100 日移动平均线，以及 1.3710，形成了该货币对当前交易位置下方的潜在支撑区。</p>
<p>有些人可能希望在该区域下方出现反转信号后再入场，但如果该货币对突破该区域，那么在 1.3600 到 1.3550 之间几乎没有明显的支撑，而该货币对在今年早些时候曾多次在此反弹。</p>

德银美元指数 做空 - PowerShares

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>美元/加元的前景看起来偏向看跌，因为最近的加拿大通胀数据低于预期，令市场对加拿大央行可能加息的前景产生怀疑。尽管美元表现强劲，美元/加元却显示出顶部信号，阻力位在 1.3750。经济动能有利于美元，因为加拿大的数据持续表现不及美国。美元/加元的独特结构表明，它受到宏观经济因素的影响较小，因此更关注近期的价格走势，而非基本面的解释</p>

<ul>
<li>Canada inflation undershoots despite oil shock from Iran war</li>
<li>BoC core inflation gauge already running beneath Q2 forecast</li>
<li>Canadian economic surprises weakest since October 2022</li>
<li>USD/CAD prints topping signal despite rampant US dollar strength</li>
<li>Repeated rejection above 1.3750 warns upside momentum may be fading</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>加拿大通胀低于预期，尽管伊朗战争导致油价震荡</li>
<li>加拿大央行核心通胀指标已低于第二季度预测</li>
<li>加拿大经济意外数据自 2022 年 10 月以来最弱</li>
<li>尽管美元强劲，美元/加元却出现顶部信号</li>
<li>重复在 1.3750 上方被拒绝，警示上涨动能可能正在减弱</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/CAD Refuses to Follow the Script</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/加元拒绝遵循预期</h2>
</div><p>Canada just delivered an inflation undershoot that should have seen USD/CAD launch like a rocket, especially with the big dollar ripping higher against the other major currencies on Tuesday. Instead, the pair printed what looks like a topping signal. Throw in the growing divergence in economic momentum between Canada and the US and, fundamentally, USD/CAD should be out in the woodshed getting smashed to pieces. But it isn’t.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大刚刚发布的通胀数据低于预期，本应使美元/加元像火箭一样上涨，尤其是在周二美元对其他主要货币大幅上涨的情况下。然而，该货币对却出现了看似顶部信号的走势。再加上加拿大和美国之间经济动能的日益分化，从基本面来看，美元/加元本应在低谷中被打得粉碎。但事实并非如此。</p>
</div><h2>Soft Inflation Clouds Hawkish BoC Outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>温和通胀云雾笼罩鹰派的加拿大央行前景</h2>
</div><p>The inflation details only deepen the puzzle. Headline CPI rose 2.8% from a year earlier in April, undershooting expectations for a 3.1% increase despite the surge in gasoline prices following the Iran war. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, below the 0.7% pace expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀的细节进一步加深了这一难题。4 月份，消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.8%，低于预期的 3.1%，尽管由于伊朗战争导致汽油价格飙升。按月计算，CPI 上涨 0.4%，低于预期的 0.7%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092903-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>More importantly for the Bank of Canada, the underlying inflation pulse softened further. The annual rate of CPI median slowed to 2.1% from 2.3% while the annual pace of CPI trim eased to 2.0% from 2.2%. Averaging the two, the Bank’s preferred core inflation gauge now sits at 2.05%, already running beneath the Bank’s own Q2 forecast of 2.1% only one month into the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，对于加拿大央行而言，潜在的通胀脉动进一步减弱。CPI 中位数的年增长率从 2.3% 放缓至 2.1%，而 CPI 修剪的年增长率从 2.2% 降至 2.0%。两者的平均值，加拿大央行偏好的核心通胀指标现在为 2.05%，已经低于该行自己对第二季度 2.1% 的预测，仅在季度开始一个月后。</p>
</div><p>That matters because it calls into question whether markets have become too aggressive pricing Bank of Canada hikes later this year. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned about second-round inflation effects becoming embedded in broader pricing behaviour, but so far there’s little evidence of that emerging in the data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为这质疑市场是否对加拿大央行在今年晚些时候加息的预期过于激进。加拿大央行一再警告，第二轮通胀效应可能会嵌入更广泛的定价行为中，但到目前为止，数据中几乎没有出现这种情况的证据。</p>
</div><h2>Economic Momentum Favours USD</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>经济动能有利于美元</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092852-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: LSEG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：LSEG</p>
</div><p>The broader macro backdrop only deepens the contradiction. Canada’s Citi economic surprise index, shown in red above, has fallen to the weakest level since October 2022 while the US equivalent, in blue, remains firmly in positive territory, continuing a trend that has persisted for almost a year. In simple terms, Canadian data has increasingly undershot expectations while US data continues to outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的宏观背景进一步加深了矛盾。加拿大的 Citi 经济意外指数（红色）已降至自 2022 年 10 月以来的最低水平，而美国的同类指数（蓝色）则稳固在正值区域，继续保持近一年的趋势。简单来说，加拿大的数据越来越低于预期，而美国的数据则持续超出预期。</p>
</div><p>That matters because a weakening domestic economy should help reduce the risk of the second-round inflation effects the Bank of Canada has warned about becoming embedded in broader pricing behaviour. Yet despite that backdrop, markets still imply around an 80% chance of a 25 basis point Bank of Canada hike by October. That seems very aggressive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为国内经济的疲软应该有助于降低加拿大央行警告的第二轮通胀效应嵌入更广泛定价行为的风险。然而，尽管有这种背景，市场仍然暗示到 10 月有约 80% 的可能性加息 25 个基点。这似乎非常激进。</p>
</div><h2>Price Action Over Macro</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格走势胜过宏观</h2>
</div><p>The unique structure of USD/CAD may explain the macro divergence. Unlike most major FX pairs, there’s little evidence that it’s tightly driven by any one macro force, whether that be rates, risk sentiment or even oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/加元的独特结构可能解释了宏观的分歧。与大多数主要外汇对不同的是，几乎没有证据表明它受到任何单一宏观因素的紧密驱动，无论是利率、风险情绪还是油价。</p>
</div><p>That’s important in this environment given both the United States and Canada are major energy exporters. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have generated violent swings elsewhere across FX markets, the relative impact on USD/CAD appears far less pronounced given both economies are exposed to the same positive terms of trade shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种环境下，这一点尤为重要，因为美国和加拿大都是主要的能源出口国。尽管中东的地缘政治紧张局势在外汇市场上引发了剧烈波动，但由于两国经济都受到相同的有利贸易条件冲击，美元/加元的相对影响似乎远不如其他货币对明显。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092811-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The correlation matrix above reinforces the point. Over the past month, USD/CAD has shown only a modest inverse relationship with S&amp;P 500 futures at -0.47 and an even weaker positive relationship with Brent crude at just 0.12. The relationship with US Treasury futures has also been inconsistent, sitting at -0.34 against US two-year note futures over the same period before weakening further over longer horizons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上面的相关性矩阵进一步强化了这一观点。在过去一个月中，美元/加元与标准普尔 500 期货的关系仅为-0.47，且与布伦特原油的正相关关系也仅为 0.12。与美国国债期货的关系也不一致，在同一时期与美国两年期国债期货的关系为-0.34，且在更长的时间范围内进一步减弱。</p>
</div><p>In other words, USD/CAD currently lacks the kind of obvious macro relationship seen regularly in other major pairs. That’s one reason why I place greater weight on the price action recently rather than trying to force a fundamental explanation onto every move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，美元/加元目前缺乏在其他主要货币对中常见的明显宏观关系。这也是我最近更重视价格走势而不是试图将每一次波动强行解释为基本面的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Bears Defend 1.3750 Again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>空头再次捍卫 1.3750</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520092734-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>As correctly flagged earlier in the month, we've seen a nice bullish move in USD/CAD in May, seeing it retrace around half the bearish unwind of April. However, while the trend is undeniable, just look at the price action seen above 1.3750 over the past three sessions. It has acted as both support and resistance for lengthy periods dating back to late last year, and with three consecutive large topside wicks but no successful close above the level, it gives you the sense the market really doesn't want to see the pair higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如本月早些时候正确指出的，我们在 5 月份看到美元/加元出现了不错的上涨，回撤了 4 月份下跌的一半。然而，尽管这一趋势不可否认，但请看看过去三个交易日 1.3750 上方的价格走势。它在去年底以来的较长时间内既充当支撑又阻力，且在该水平上出现了三次连续的大顶部影线，但没有成功收盘在该水平上，这让人感觉市场真的不想看到该货币对上涨。</p>
</div><p>Tuesday's candle stands out in particular, delivering something akin to a shooting star, a bearish reversal pattern that warns of potential downside. The domestic data was weak, the USD was rampant elsewhere, and the bears still lined up to push it back below 1.3750. That's something to sit up and take notice of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二的蜡烛图尤其突出，呈现出类似于流星的形态，这是一种看跌反转模式，警示潜在的下行风险。国内数据疲软，美元在其他地方强劲，空头仍然排队将其推回 1.3750 以下。这值得关注。</p>
</div><p>While the oscillators are generating the mildest of mild bullish signals on directional risks right now, with RSI (14) above 50 while MACD has flipped positive having already crossed over earlier this month, the message is hardly definitive. If the price action is reflective of what's to come, short setups may be on the menu.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管振荡指标目前在方向风险上发出最温和的看涨信号，RSI（14）在 50 以上，而 MACD 在本月早些时候已转为正值，但这一信息并不明确。如果价格走势反映了未来的走势，空头布局可能会成为选择。</p>
</div><p>If the price continues to falter above 1.3750 or cannot reclaim the level today, positions could be set below with a tight stop above for protection, targeting lower levels. Early doors, there are several key levels nearby that may provide early hurdles for bears, with the 50 and 100-day moving averages, along with 1.3710, creating something of a potential support zone immediately under where the pair now trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果价格继续在 1.3750 上方挣扎，或今天无法重新夺回该水平，则可以在下方建立头寸，止损设置在上方以保护，目标指向更低的水平。早期阶段，有几个关键水平可能为空头提供早期障碍，50 日和 100 日移动平均线，以及 1.3710，形成了该货币对当前交易位置下方的潜在支撑区。</p>
</div><p>Some may want to wait for a reversal beneath the zone before entry, but if the pair were to break through it, there's little in the way of visible support until 1.3600 down to 1.3550 where the pair bounced on several occasions earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有些人可能希望在该区域下方出现反转信号后再入场，但如果该货币对突破该区域，那么在 1.3600 到 1.3550 之间几乎没有明显的支撑，而该货币对在今年早些时候曾多次在此反弹。</p>
</div>

美元/加元的展望：看跌的价格走势使看涨的宏观情况受到质疑