<p>布伦特原油下跌 0.4%，WTI 原油下滑 0.3%，因特朗普声称与伊朗的战争将很快结束，但投资者仍然保持谨慎，因为美国原油库存连续第五周下降。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>布伦特原油在早盘交易中下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而 WTI 原油下跌 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元，此前特朗普告诉美国立法者与伊朗的战争将很快结束</li>
<li>在副总统范斯表示美国与伊朗在谈判中取得了实质性进展后，双方都不希望看到军事行动的回归，周二这两个基准油价已经下跌近 1 美元</li>
<li>特朗普的和平谈判乐观情绪受到他早前评论的削弱，他表示美国可能需要再次打击伊朗，并透露他在推迟之前曾距离下令攻击仅有一个小时</li>
<li>霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油供应通过此处运输，因美以与伊朗的冲突而实际上处于关闭状态，根据国际能源署的说法，这代表了全球最大的石油供应中断</li>
<li>根据市场消息引用的 API 数据，美国原油库存连续第五周下降，预计周三发布的 EIA 数据将显示截至 5 月 15 日的一周再减少约 340 万桶</li>
<li>分析师指出，即使确认达成和平协议，原油供应也不会迅速恢复到战争前的水平，价格在任何短期外交解决方案之外仍将保持结构性高位。</li>
</ul>
<p>周三早盘，油价在特朗普告诉美国立法者与伊朗的战争将很快结束后有所回落，但下跌幅度温和且犹豫，反映出市场已经学会对政府每日语调的变化保持相当谨慎。</p>
<p>布伦特原油下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油下滑 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元。在副总统范斯表示华盛顿与德黑兰之间的谈判取得了实质性进展后，双方都不希望恢复敌对行动，周二这两个基准油价已经回落近 1 美元。</p>
<p>然而，外交乐观情绪与特朗普本人所说的相反。就在他向立法者声称迅速解决的同一天，他表示美国可能需要再次打击伊朗，并透露他在选择推迟之前曾距离下令攻击仅有一个小时。这种矛盾已成为市场运作环境的特征，分析师指出美国的立场每天都在变化，投资者难以判断华盛顿与德黑兰是否能够找到真正的共同点。</p>
<p>结构性供应形势为价格提供了持续的支撑，无论外交噪音如何。霍尔木兹海峡，通常约五分之一的全球石油供应通过此处运输，因美以与伊朗的冲突而实际上处于关闭状态，国际能源署将这一中断描述为全球石油供应有记录以来最大的中断。各国正在动用商业和战略库存来填补这一缺口，市场消息引用的美国石油库存数据显示，原油库存连续第五周下降，周三晚些时候发布的 EIA 数据预计将确认截至 5 月 15 日的一周再减少约 340 万桶。</p>
<p>分析师警告称，即使确认达成和平协议，供应中断也不会迅速解除，原油流动在敌对行动正式停止后也不太可能迅速恢复到战争前的水平。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>价格走势反映出市场已经听过特朗普的乐观表述，并据此进行折扣。他关于战争将迅速结束的说法与他早前提到的可能需要在几天内再次打击伊朗的评论之间的差距，概括了自冲突开始以来油价交易的剧烈波动。更持久的看跌信号将是霍尔木兹海峡的确认和持久重开，分析师指出，即使达成和平协议，供应也不会立即恢复到战争前的水平。在看涨方面，美国原油库存连续第五周下降，突显出各国依赖储备来填补霍尔木兹海峡中断所留下的供应缺口，尽管地缘政治头条不断变化，但仍为价格提供了结构性支撑。</p>

西方石油

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

<p>油价略微回落，布伦特原油下跌 0.4%，至 110.83 美元，WTI 下跌 0.3%，至 103.88 美元，此前特朗普建议迅速结束与伊朗的战争。然而，由于美国与以色列与伊朗之间的冲突以及美国原油库存连续第五周下降，市场对供应中断的担忧使得油价保持在高位。分析师警告，即使达成和平协议，原油供应也可能不会迅速恢复到战争前的水平，从而维持结构性价格底线</p>

<p>Brent fell 0.4% and WTI slipped 0.3% after Trump claimed the Iran war will end very quickly, though investors remain cautious as US crude stocks fell for a fifth straight week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油下跌 0.4%，WTI 原油下滑 0.3%，因特朗普声称与伊朗的战争将很快结束，但投资者仍然保持谨慎，因为美国原油库存连续第五周下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Brent crude fell 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $110.83 a barrel in early trade, while WTI dropped 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $103.88, after Trump told US lawmakers the war with Iran will end very quickly</li>
<li>Both benchmarks had already fallen nearly $1 on Tuesday after Vice President Vance said the US and Iran had made meaningful progress in talks, with neither side wanting to see a return to military action</li>
<li>Trump's peace talk optimism was undercut by his earlier comments that the US may need to strike Iran again, and that he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before postponing it</li>
<li>The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around a fifth of global oil supplies, remains effectively closed as a result of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, representing the largest oil supply disruption in the world according to the IEA</li>
<li>US crude inventories fell for a fifth consecutive week according to API data cited by market sources, with EIA data due Wednesday expected to show a further draw of around 3.4 million barrels for the week to May 15</li>
<li>Analysts noted that even a confirmed peace deal would not quickly restore crude supply to pre-war levels, keeping prices structurally elevated beyond any near-term diplomatic resolution</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>布伦特原油在早盘交易中下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而 WTI 原油下跌 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元，此前特朗普告诉美国立法者与伊朗的战争将很快结束</li>
<li>在副总统范斯表示美国与伊朗在谈判中取得了实质性进展后，双方都不希望看到军事行动的回归，周二这两个基准油价已经下跌近 1 美元</li>
<li>特朗普的和平谈判乐观情绪受到他早前评论的削弱，他表示美国可能需要再次打击伊朗，并透露他在推迟之前曾距离下令攻击仅有一个小时</li>
<li>霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油供应通过此处运输，因美以与伊朗的冲突而实际上处于关闭状态，根据国际能源署的说法，这代表了全球最大的石油供应中断</li>
<li>根据市场消息引用的 API 数据，美国原油库存连续第五周下降，预计周三发布的 EIA 数据将显示截至 5 月 15 日的一周再减少约 340 万桶</li>
<li>分析师指出，即使确认达成和平协议，原油供应也不会迅速恢复到战争前的水平，价格在任何短期外交解决方案之外仍将保持结构性高位。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Oil prices eased in early trade on Wednesday after President Trump told US lawmakers the war with Iran would end very quickly, but the move lower was modest and tentative, reflecting a market that has learned to treat the administration's daily shifts in tone with considerable caution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三早盘，油价在特朗普告诉美国立法者与伊朗的战争将很快结束后有所回落，但下跌幅度温和且犹豫，反映出市场已经学会对政府每日语调的变化保持相当谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude fell 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $110.83 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $103.88. Both benchmarks had already given back nearly a dollar on Tuesday after Vice President Vance said meaningful progress had been made in talks between Washington and Tehran, with neither side seeking a return to active hostilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油下跌 45 美分，或 0.4%，至每桶 110.83 美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油下滑 27 美分，或 0.3%，至 103.88 美元。在副总统范斯表示华盛顿与德黑兰之间的谈判取得了实质性进展后，双方都不希望恢复敌对行动，周二这两个基准油价已经回落近 1 美元。</p>
</div><p>The diplomatic optimism, however, is running alongside language from Trump himself that points in the opposite direction. On the same day he asserted a quick resolution to lawmakers, he said the United States may need to strike Iran again, and disclosed that he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before choosing to postpone it. The contradiction has become characteristic of the market's operating environment, with analysts noting that the US stance is shifting on a daily basis and that investors are struggling to gauge whether Washington and Tehran can find genuine common ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，外交乐观情绪与特朗普本人所说的相反。就在他向立法者声称迅速解决的同一天，他表示美国可能需要再次打击伊朗，并透露他在选择推迟之前曾距离下令攻击仅有一个小时。这种矛盾已成为市场运作环境的特征，分析师指出美国的立场每天都在变化，投资者难以判断华盛顿与德黑兰是否能够找到真正的共同点。</p>
</div><p>The structural supply picture provides a persistent floor beneath prices regardless of the diplomatic noise. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of global oil supplies normally flows, remains effectively closed as a consequence of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, a disruption the International Energy Agency has described as the largest to global oil supply on record. Countries are drawing on commercial and strategic inventories to fill the gap, a trend reflected in US crude stockpile data showing a fifth consecutive weekly decline, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures released on Tuesday. EIA data due later on Wednesday is expected to confirm a further draw of around 3.4 million barrels for the week ending May 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结构性供应形势为价格提供了持续的支撑，无论外交噪音如何。霍尔木兹海峡，通常约五分之一的全球石油供应通过此处运输，因美以与伊朗的冲突而实际上处于关闭状态，国际能源署将这一中断描述为全球石油供应有记录以来最大的中断。各国正在动用商业和战略库存来填补这一缺口，市场消息引用的美国石油库存数据显示，原油库存连续第五周下降，周三晚些时候发布的 EIA 数据预计将确认截至 5 月 15 日的一周再减少约 340 万桶。</p>
</div><p>Analysts cautioned that even a confirmed peace deal would not rapidly unwind the supply disruption, with crude flows unlikely to return quickly to pre-war levels once hostilities formally cease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师警告称，即使确认达成和平协议，供应中断也不会迅速解除，原油流动在敌对行动正式停止后也不太可能迅速恢复到战争前的水平。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The price action reflects a market that has heard Trump's optimistic framing before and is discounting it accordingly. The gap between his assertion of a quick end to the war and his earlier comment that he may need to strike Iran again within days encapsulates the whipsaw dynamic that has characterised oil trading since the conflict began. The more durable bearish signal would be a confirmed and durable Hormuz reopening, which analysts note would still not immediately return supply to pre-war levels even if a peace deal were struck. On the bullish side, a fifth consecutive weekly draw in US crude inventories underlines the ongoing drain on commercial stocks as countries lean on reserves to fill the supply gap left by Hormuz disruption, providing a structural floor under prices even as geopolitical headlines swing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格走势反映出市场已经听过特朗普的乐观表述，并据此进行折扣。他关于战争将迅速结束的说法与他早前提到的可能需要在几天内再次打击伊朗的评论之间的差距，概括了自冲突开始以来油价交易的剧烈波动。更持久的看跌信号将是霍尔木兹海峡的确认和持久重开，分析师指出，即使达成和平协议，供应也不会立即恢复到战争前的水平。在看涨方面，美国原油库存连续第五周下降，突显出各国依赖储备来填补霍尔木兹海峡中断所留下的供应缺口，尽管地缘政治头条不断变化，但仍为价格提供了结构性支撑。</p>
</div>

Oil slips a little on Trump peace talk but supply fears keep prices elevated

Investinglive

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油价因特朗普的和平谈话略微下跌，但供应忧虑仍使价格维持在高位