<p>高盛发布了一份研究报告，指出自今年年初以来，香港住宅价格和办公租金的表现超出预期，因此再次上调了预测。现在预计香港住宅物业价格今年将上涨 15%（之前预测为上涨 12%），而 2027 年和 2028 年的预测保持不变，分别为上涨 7% 和 4%。该银行继续偏好房地产开发商，认为他们将受益于香港住宅市场的多年度上行周期。</p>
<p>报告提到，住宅价格年初至今上涨了 8%，而一手销售量增加了 48%。租金增长较慢，年初至今仅上涨 1.2%，反映出部分需求从租赁转向购买。</p>
<p>对于办公楼，高盛将 2026 年的租金增长预测从持平上调至 3%。核心中环地区的租金增长大幅上调，从 3% 提升至 10%，而非核心地区由于空置率仍然较高，保持同比持平。零售租金增长略微上调，从 2% 提升至 3%，主要受到奢侈品领域的推动（从 4% 上调至 5%）。</p>
<p>在个股方面，高盛上调了多家公司的目标价。恒基地产（00012.HK）的目标价从 38 港元上调至 41 港元，代表 8% 的增长，维持买入评级并纳入强烈买入名单。新鸿基地产（00016.HK）的目标价从 164 港元上调至 170 港元，增长 4%，维持买入评级。信和地产（00083.HK）的目标价从 15.2 港元上调至 16 港元，增长 5%，维持买入评级。太古地产（01972.HK）的目标价从 30 港元上调至 30.7 港元，增长 2%，维持买入评级。恒隆地产（00101.HK）的目标价维持在 11.5 港元，维持买入评级。希慎发展（00014.HK）的目标价维持在 24.9 港元，维持中性评级。</p>
<p>然而，高盛将新世界发展（00017.HK）的目标价从 12.5 港元下调至 11 港元，代表 12% 的下降，维持中性评级，主要由于其最新的净债务和现金流评估。高盛将华润置地（00004.HK）评级为卖出，目标价维持在 25 港元，反映出对其内地租金收入、开发物业利润及其股权投资组合波动性的担忧。</p>
<p>该银行继续偏好在上行周期中拥有丰富可售资源的开发商，如恒基地产和新鸿基地产，以及信和地产，该公司资产负债表强劲，愿意在低谷水平补充土地储备。在房东中，它更偏好香港置地和太古地产，这些公司在核心中环办公和高端零售方面更具优势。</p>

新鸿基地产

恒基发展

新世界发展

恒基地产

<p>高盛已将香港住宅物业价格的预测上调至今年 15% 的增长，之前为 12%。该银行看好恒基地产和新鸿基地产，提升了它们的目标价格，同时将新世界发展的目标价格下调了 12%。报告强调了住宅价格的强劲增长以及需求从租赁转向购买的变化，同时 2026 年的办公租金增长预测也上调</p>

<p>G Sachs published a research report noting that Hong Kong residential prices and office rents have performed better than expected since the beginning of this year, prompting another upward revision to its forecasts. It now expects Hong Kong residential property prices to rise 15% this year (previously forecast to increase 12%), while forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remain unchanged at increases of 7% and 4%, respectively. The bank continues to prefer property developers, which it believes will benefit from a multi-year upcycle in Hong Kongs residential market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛发布了一份研究报告，指出自今年年初以来，香港住宅价格和办公租金的表现超出预期，因此再次上调了预测。现在预计香港住宅物业价格今年将上涨 15%（之前预测为上涨 12%），而 2027 年和 2028 年的预测保持不变，分别为上涨 7% 和 4%。该银行继续偏好房地产开发商，认为他们将受益于香港住宅市场的多年度上行周期。</p>
</div><p>The report mentioned that residential prices have risen 8% year-to-date, with primary sales volume increasing 48%. Rental growth has been slower, up only 1.2% year-to-date, reflecting a shift in part of demand from leasing to purchasing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告提到，住宅价格年初至今上涨了 8%，而一手销售量增加了 48%。租金增长较慢，年初至今仅上涨 1.2%，反映出部分需求从租赁转向购买。</p>
</div><p>For offices, G Sachs raised its 2026 rental growth forecast from flat to 3%. Rental growth in the core Central district was significantly revised up from 3% to 10%, while non-core districts were kept flat YoY due to still-elevated vacancy rates. Retail rental growth was slightly adjusted up from 2% to 3%, mainly driven by the luxury segment (revised up from 4% to 5%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于办公楼，高盛将 2026 年的租金增长预测从持平上调至 3%。核心中环地区的租金增长大幅上调，从 3% 提升至 10%，而非核心地区由于空置率仍然较高，保持同比持平。零售租金增长略微上调，从 2% 提升至 3%，主要受到奢侈品领域的推动（从 4% 上调至 5%）。</p>
</div><p>On individual stocks, G Sachs raised TPs for multiple companies. The TP for HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) -0.320 (-0.988%)  Short selling $87.51M; Ratio 21.138%  was lifted from HKD38 to HKD41, representing an 8% increase, with a Buy rating and inclusion on the Conviction List Buy. The TP for SHK PPT (00016.HK) -0.100 (-0.074%)  Short selling $178.65M; Ratio 27.750%  was raised from HKD164 to HKD170, up 4%, with a Buy rating. The TP for SINO LAND (00083.HK) -0.100 (-0.803%)  Short selling $15.68M; Ratio 26.067%  was increased from HKD15.2 to HKD16, up 5%, with a Buy rating. The TP for SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) +0.100 (+0.427%)  Short selling $17.40M; Ratio 26.598%  was lifted from HKD30 to HKD30.7, up 2%, with a Buy rating. The TP for HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK) -0.020 (-0.238%)  Short selling $14.91M; Ratio 19.145%  was maintained at HKD11.5, with a Buy rating. The TP for HYSAN DEV (00014.HK) -0.010 (-0.052%)  Short selling $8.88M; Ratio 35.098%  was kept at HKD24.9, with a Neutral rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在个股方面，高盛上调了多家公司的目标价。恒基地产（00012.HK）的目标价从 38 港元上调至 41 港元，代表 8% 的增长，维持买入评级并纳入强烈买入名单。新鸿基地产（00016.HK）的目标价从 164 港元上调至 170 港元，增长 4%，维持买入评级。信和地产（00083.HK）的目标价从 15.2 港元上调至 16 港元，增长 5%，维持买入评级。太古地产（01972.HK）的目标价从 30 港元上调至 30.7 港元，增长 2%，维持买入评级。恒隆地产（00101.HK）的目标价维持在 11.5 港元，维持买入评级。希慎发展（00014.HK）的目标价维持在 24.9 港元，维持中性评级。</p>
</div><p>However, G Sachs cut the TP for NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) -0.120 (-1.422%)  Short selling $7.93M; Ratio 13.761%  from HKD12.5 to HKD11, representing a 12% decrease, with a Neutral rating, mainly due to its latest assessment of net debt and cash flow. The bank rated WHARF HOLDINGS (00004.HK) -0.780 (-2.885%)  Short selling $10.49M; Ratio 7.400%  as Sell, with a TP maintained at HKD25, reflecting concerns over its mainland rental income, development property profits and the volatility of its equity investment portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，高盛将新世界发展（00017.HK）的目标价从 12.5 港元下调至 11 港元，代表 12% 的下降，维持中性评级，主要由于其最新的净债务和现金流评估。高盛将华润置地（00004.HK）评级为卖出，目标价维持在 25 港元，反映出对其内地租金收入、开发物业利润及其股权投资组合波动性的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The bank continues to favor developers with abundant saleable resources to monetize during the upcycle, such as HENDERSON LAND and SHK PPT, as well as SINO LAND, which has a strong balance sheet and is willing to replenish its land bank at trough levels. Among landlords, it prefers Hongkong Land and SWIREPROPERTIES, which are better positioned to benefit from core Central office exposure and high-end retail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行继续偏好在上行周期中拥有丰富可售资源的开发商，如恒基地产和新鸿基地产，以及信和地产，该公司资产负债表强劲，愿意在低谷水平补充土地储备。在房东中，它更偏好香港置地和太古地产，这些公司在核心中环办公和高端零售方面更具优势。</p>
</div>

G Sachs Raises HK Home Prices Forecast to +15% This Year; Favors HENDERSON LAND , SHK PPT ; Cuts NEW WORLD DEV  TP

AASTOCKS News

高盛

信和置业

太古地产

恒隆地产

希慎兴业

九龙仓集团

香港置地控股

GS Hldg R

新鸿基地产-R

九龙仓集团(ADR)

高盛将香港房价的预测上调至今年上涨 15%；看好恒基地产和新鸿基地产；下调新世界发展的目标价