<p>黄金在五月初的反弹开始显得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>在本月初因希望美伊紧张局势缓解而导致油价驱动的通胀担忧减轻而急剧反弹后，黄金在周三回落，因为宏观背景变得不那么友好。</p>
<p>现货黄金下跌 0.3%，报每盎司 4,467.59 美元，而美国黄金期货下跌 0.9%，报 4,471.10 美元。</p>
<p>压力来自熟悉的因素，包括美国国债收益率上升和美元走强，这两者都使得无收益的黄金更难持有。</p>
<p>这一走势并不意味着黄金的牛市前景已经消失。</p>
<p>地缘政治风险依然高企，油价仍然高企，投资者在等待美联储最新的政策信号。</p>
<p>但目前，市场明确传达出一个信息：仅仅寄希望于和平并不足以在收益率和美元走强的情况下提振黄金。</p>
<p><strong>更高的收益率让黄金处于防守状态</strong></p>
<p>对黄金最大的拖累来自债券市场。</p>
<p>由于投资者重新评估通胀可能持续高企的风险，美国国债收益率上升。这一点很重要，因为黄金不支付任何收入。</p>
<p>当债券收益率上升时，持有黄金的机会成本上升，使得国债和其他有息资产相对更具吸引力。</p>
<p>10 年期国债收益率维持在一年多来的最高水平附近，给黄金施加了压力。</p>
<p>这已成为黄金面临的关键宏观逆风，因为当地缘政治不确定性支撑避险需求时，更高的收益率可以迅速削弱这种支撑。</p>
<p>利率背景也发生了变化。</p>
<p>费城联邦储备银行行长安娜·保尔森表示，目前的利率有助于抑制通胀，但也暗示加息仍然是可能的。</p>
<p>这足以让交易员在周三稍晚即将公布的美联储四月政策会议纪要之前保持谨慎。</p>
<p><strong>强势美元削弱黄金需求</strong></p>
<p>第二个压力点是美元。</p>
<p>美元交易接近六周高位，受到避险需求和加息预期上升的支持。</p>
<p>通常情况下，强势美元会对黄金施加压力，因为黄金以美元计价。</p>
<p>当美元上涨时，黄金对使用其他货币的买家变得更加昂贵，这可能会在边际上减少需求。</p>
<p>这正是黄金目前面临的局面。</p>
<p>美元指数稳定在 99.306，并在五月上涨超过 1%，受避险资金流入和市场对美联储可能在今年晚些时候收紧政策的日益信心的推动。</p>
<p>根据 CME FedWatch，交易员预计 12 月加息的概率超过 50%。</p>
<p>这与早期的叙述形成了鲜明对比，当时投资者关注的是可能的降息。</p>
<p>对于黄金而言，这一差异至关重要，因为较弱的美元和下降的加息预期往往像燃料一样推动黄金。</p>

纽蒙特矿业

中金黄金

<p>黄金价格承压，现货黄金下跌 0.3%，至 4,467.59 美元，美国黄金期货下跌 0.9%，至 4,471.10 美元。此次下跌归因于美国国债收益率上升和美元走强，这增加了持有无收益黄金的机会成本。尽管面临这些挑战，地缘政治风险和高油价仍然保持了黄金的长期看涨前景，因为投资者在等待美联储的信号</p>

<p>Gold’s early-May rebound is starting to look more fragile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金在五月初的反弹开始显得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>After rallying sharply earlier this month on hopes that easing US-Iran tensions would cool oil-driven inflation fears, bullion slipped on Wednesday as the macro backdrop turned less friendly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本月初因希望美伊紧张局势缓解而导致油价驱动的通胀担忧减轻而急剧反弹后，黄金在周三回落，因为宏观背景变得不那么友好。</p>
</div><p>Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,467.59 an ounce, while US gold futures dropped 0.9% to $4,471.10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货黄金下跌 0.3%，报每盎司 4,467.59 美元，而美国黄金期货下跌 0.9%，报 4,471.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>The pressure came from familiar forces, including higher US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, both of which make non-yielding gold harder to own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>压力来自熟悉的因素，包括美国国债收益率上升和美元走强，这两者都使得无收益的黄金更难持有。</p>
</div><p>The move does not mean gold’s bull case has disappeared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一走势并不意味着黄金的牛市前景已经消失。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical risk remains elevated, oil prices are still high, and investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地缘政治风险依然高企，油价仍然高企，投资者在等待美联储最新的政策信号。</p>
</div><p>But for now, the market is sending a clear message that peace hopes alone are not enough to lift gold when yields and the dollar are moving against it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前，市场明确传达出一个信息：仅仅寄希望于和平并不足以在收益率和美元走强的情况下提振黄金。</p>
</div><p><strong>Higher yields put gold back on defensive</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>更高的收益率让黄金处于防守状态</strong></p>
</div><p>The biggest drag on gold is coming from the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对黄金最大的拖累来自债券市场。</p>
</div><p>US Treasury yields have risen as investors reassess the risk that inflation could stay hotter for longer. That matters because gold pays no income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者重新评估通胀可能持续高企的风险，美国国债收益率上升。这一点很重要，因为黄金不支付任何收入。</p>
</div><p>When bond yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding bullion rises, making Treasuries and other interest-bearing assets more attractive by comparison.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当债券收益率上升时，持有黄金的机会成本上升，使得国债和其他有息资产相对更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury yields were holding near their highest level in more than a year, adding pressure on bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债收益率维持在一年多来的最高水平附近，给黄金施加了压力。</p>
</div><p>This has become the key macro headwind for gold, as when geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, higher yields can blunt that support quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这已成为黄金面临的关键宏观逆风，因为当地缘政治不确定性支撑避险需求时，更高的收益率可以迅速削弱这种支撑。</p>
</div><p>The rate backdrop has also shifted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率背景也发生了变化。</p>
</div><p>Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said current interest rates are helping curb inflation, but also suggested rate hikes remain a possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>费城联邦储备银行行长安娜·保尔森表示，目前的利率有助于抑制通胀，但也暗示加息仍然是可能的。</p>
</div><p>That was enough to keep traders cautious ahead of the minutes from the Fed’s April policy meeting, due later on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这足以让交易员在周三稍晚即将公布的美联储四月政策会议纪要之前保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p><strong>A firm dollar cuts into bullion demand</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>强势美元削弱黄金需求</strong></p>
</div><p>The second pressure point is the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个压力点是美元。</p>
</div><p>The US currency was trading near a six-week high, supported by haven demand and rising rate-hike expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元交易接近六周高位，受到避险需求和加息预期上升的支持。</p>
</div><p>A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold because bullion is priced in dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情况下，强势美元会对黄金施加压力，因为黄金以美元计价。</p>
</div><p>When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can reduce demand at the margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美元上涨时，黄金对使用其他货币的买家变得更加昂贵，这可能会在边际上减少需求。</p>
</div><p>That is exactly the setup gold is facing now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是黄金目前面临的局面。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index was steady at 99.306 and up more than 1% in May, helped by safe-haven flows and the market’s growing belief that the Fed could still tighten policy later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数稳定在 99.306，并在五月上涨超过 1%，受避险资金流入和市场对美联储可能在今年晚些时候收紧政策的日益信心的推动。</p>
</div><p>Traders were pricing in more than a 50% chance of a December rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME FedWatch，交易员预计 12 月加息的概率超过 50%。</p>
</div><p>This is a sharp change from the earlier narrative, when investors had been focused on possible rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与早期的叙述形成了鲜明对比，当时投资者关注的是可能的降息。</p>
</div><p>For gold, the difference is crucial as a weaker dollar and falling rate expectations tend to act like fuel for bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于黄金而言，这一差异至关重要，因为较弱的美元和下降的加息预期往往像燃料一样推动黄金。</p>
</div>

黄金价格走弱：两大原因导致金价承压