<p>经济学家 <strong>贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯</strong> 周二警告称，如果霍尔木兹海峡的干扰持续，食品价格将会上涨，这不仅推动了油价上涨，还提高了肥料成本。</p>
<p>沃尔弗斯在 X 上发帖称：“现在的大故事是石油。下一个故事是食品。” 他补充道：“这是人们忽视的传导渠道：如果肥料被困在霍尔木兹海峡的错误一侧，食品价格可能会随之上涨。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>&#34;现在的大故事是石油。下一个故事是食品。&#34; ⁣</p>
<p>⁣</p>
<p>这是人们忽视的传导渠道：如果肥料被困在霍尔木兹海峡的错误一侧，食品价格可能会随之上涨。 pic.twitter.com/Kk1DKJeCcp</p>
<p>— 贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯 (@JustinWolfers) 2026 年 5 月 19 日</p>
</blockquote>
<h2><strong>肥料价格上涨可能导致食品危机</strong></h2>
<p>肥料价格的上涨给农民和农业部门带来了压力。随着霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势扰乱全球供应，尿素和氨等关键投入品的价格自与伊朗冲突开始以来急剧上涨。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>随着通胀担忧上升，AI 股票正成为华尔街的新防御性交易，高盛表示</strong></p>
<p>尿素价格自二月份以来 翻了一番，达到每公吨约 900 美元，为 2022 年以来的最高水平。氮肥对作物生长至关重要，也受到影响，因为全球约三分之一的 nitrogen trade passes 通过霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>世界银行预计 肥料价格可能在 2026 年上涨 31%，这将加剧农民的负担，减少农场收入并影响未来的收成。该银行指出，如果冲突持续时间更长，可能会加剧食品压力。在这种情况下，根据世界粮食计划署的估计，可能会有多达 4500 万人在今年陷入严重的食品不安全状态。</p>
<p>随着美国面临肥料成本上升，地缘政治紧张局势预计将使能源价格保持高位，进一步加剧农业挑战。根据晨间咨询的民调，报告食品价格高于预期的美国人比例在三月份跃升至 48%，而二月份为 46%。</p>
<p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>美光、英特尔和闪迪在 AI 热潮中可能还有更多上涨空间，分析师表示：'刚刚提高了我们的目标'</strong></p>
<p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock/ 1000 Words</em></p>

<p>经济学家贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯警告称，霍尔木兹海峡持续的干扰可能导致全球食品价格上涨，因为石油和肥料成本上升。他强调，如果肥料供应受到影响，可能会加剧农业挑战，世界银行预计到 2026 年肥料价格将上涨 31%。这种情况可能使多达 4500 万人面临严重的食品不安全，因为成本上升影响了农民和食品的可负担性</p>

<p>Economist <strong>Justin Wolfers</strong> on Tuesday warned of rising food prices if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, which is not only driving oil prices higher but also fertilizer costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家 <strong>贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯</strong> 周二警告称，如果霍尔木兹海峡的干扰持续，食品价格将会上涨，这不仅推动了油价上涨，还提高了肥料成本。</p>
</div><p>In a post on X, Wolfers wrote, “The big story right now is oil. The next story is food.” He added, &#34;That’s the transmission channel people miss: if fertilizer is caught on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz, food prices can be next.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔弗斯在 X 上发帖称：“现在的大故事是石油。下一个故事是食品。” 他补充道：“这是人们忽视的传导渠道：如果肥料被困在霍尔木兹海峡的错误一侧，食品价格可能会随之上涨。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>&#34;The big story right now is oil. The next story is food.&#34; ⁣</p>
<p>⁣</p>
<p>That's the transmission channel people miss: if fertilizer is caught on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz, food prices can be next. pic.twitter.com/Kk1DKJeCcp</p>
<p>— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) May 19, 2026</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>&#34;现在的大故事是石油。下一个故事是食品。&#34; ⁣</p>
<p>⁣</p>
<p>这是人们忽视的传导渠道：如果肥料被困在霍尔木兹海峡的错误一侧，食品价格可能会随之上涨。 pic.twitter.com/Kk1DKJeCcp</p>
<p>— 贾斯廷·沃尔弗斯 (@JustinWolfers) 2026 年 5 月 19 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2><strong>Higher Fertilizer Prices Could Result In Food Crisis</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>肥料价格上涨可能导致食品危机</strong></h2>
</div><p>Higher fertliizer prices are putting pressure on farmers and the agriculture sector. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupt global supply, prices for key inputs like urea and ammonia have jumped sharply since the start of the conflict with Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>肥料价格的上涨给农民和农业部门带来了压力。随着霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势扰乱全球供应，尿素和氨等关键投入品的价格自与伊朗冲突开始以来急剧上涨。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>AI Stocks Are Becoming Wall Street's New Defensive Trade As Inflation Fears Rise, Goldman Says</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>随着通胀担忧上升，AI 股票正成为华尔街的新防御性交易，高盛表示</strong></p>
</div><p>Urea prices have doubled since February, to approximately $900 per metric ton, the highest since 2022. Nitrogen fertilizer, essential for crop growth, is also affected, as about one-third of global nitrogen trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尿素价格自二月份以来 翻了一番，达到每公吨约 900 美元，为 2022 年以来的最高水平。氮肥对作物生长至关重要，也受到影响，因为全球约三分之一的 nitrogen trade passes 通过霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>The World Bank projects fertilizer prices could rise 31% in 2026, which would worsen affordability for farmers, reducing farm income and hurting future harvests. The bank flagged a downside risk scenario in which a longer conflict could intensify food stress. Under that outcome, up to 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity this year, based on World Food Programme estimates cited by the bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界银行预计 肥料价格可能在 2026 年上涨 31%，这将加剧农民的负担，减少农场收入并影响未来的收成。该银行指出，如果冲突持续时间更长，可能会加剧食品压力。在这种情况下，根据世界粮食计划署的估计，可能会有多达 4500 万人在今年陷入严重的食品不安全状态。</p>
</div><p>As the U.S. grapples with rising fertilizer costs, geopolitical tensions are expected to keep energy prices elevated, contributing to ongoing agricultural challenges. The share of Americans reporting higher-than-expected grocery prices jumped to 48% in March from 46% in February, according to Morning Consult polling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美国面临肥料成本上升，地缘政治紧张局势预计将使能源价格保持高位，进一步加剧农业挑战。根据晨间咨询的民调，报告食品价格高于预期的美国人比例在三月份跃升至 48%，而二月份为 46%。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Micron, Intel And SanDisk Could Have More Room To Run Amid AI Frenzy, Analyst Says: 'Just Took Our Targets Up'</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>美光、英特尔和闪迪在 AI 热潮中可能还有更多上涨空间，分析师表示：'刚刚提高了我们的目标'</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Image via Shutterstock/ 1000 Words</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock/ 1000 Words</em></p>
</div>

Oil Maybe The Big Story Right Now, But The Next Story Is Food, Warns Economist: 'If Fertilizer Is Caught On The Wrong Side Of The Strait Of Hormuz...'

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高盛

美光科技

石油或许是当前的热点话题，但经济学家警告称，接下来的焦点将是食品：‘如果化肥被困在霍尔木兹海峡的错误一侧……’