<p>作者：Nimesh Vora 和 Jaspreet Kalra</p>
<p>孟买，5 月 20 日（路透社）——根据四位银行家的估计，印度储备银行每日的外汇市场干预约为 10 亿美元，虽然干预有所减缓，但并未阻止卢比贬值，卢比在高油价和飙升的美国国债收益率的压力下，创下了一系列历史新低。</p>
<p>银行家表示，过去一个半星期，印度储备银行通过国有银行每日出售美元，以缓解卢比的压力。</p>
<p>印度约 90% 的原油需求依赖进口，长期高油价成为主要挑战，加上资本流入疲软和出口商美元销售乏力。</p>
<p>美国与以色列的战争与伊朗的局势未能得到解决，使得卢比在对美元贬值方面更加脆弱，尽管今年迄今卢比已贬值近 8%，成为亚洲表现最差的货币。</p>
<p>银行家估计，最近几天，印度储备银行在即期市场的每日美元销售额在 8 亿到 20 亿美元之间，基于美元/卢比的交易量、国有银行的活动和订单流动模式的经纪人输入。</p>
<p>中央银行的干预减缓了贬值的速度，而不是逆转贬值，卢比已连续九天下滑，首次接近每美元 97 的关口。</p>
<p>印度储备银行未立即回复寻求评论的电子邮件。</p>
<p>一位银行家估计干预金额在约 20 亿美元的高端，他表示干预是 “进进出出”，而不是在整个交易时段内持续进行。此人和故事中提到的其他银行家要求匿名，因为他们没有被授权公开发言。</p>
<p>“对于印度储备银行来说，目标是管理卢比贬值的速度，防止其变成自我实现的螺旋，” IDFC FIRST Bank 首席经济学家 Gaura Sen Gupta 表示。</p>
<p>根据她对储备货币数据的计算，她估计印度储备银行在 5 月的第一周出售了约 50 亿美元。</p>
<p>Sen Gupta 预计，中央银行将采取进一步措施以应对经常账户压力并增强资本流入，此前中央银行对加剧卢比压力的大额套利交易进行了打击。</p>
<p>美国收益率加剧油价冲击</p>
<p>由于市场预期美联储将因与伊朗战争相关的通胀担忧而加息，美国国债收益率的飙升加剧了卢比的压力。</p>
<p>市场对美联储今年潜在加息的定价上升，这与冲突前的情绪形成鲜明对比，当时市场预计下一步将是降息。</p>
<p>这些同时出现的压力使市场流动性对卢比不利。</p>
<p>“出口商推迟兑换收益……而进口商则提前增加需求并积极对冲。结果是外汇流动中持续存在不平衡，仅靠干预难以弥补，” ANZ 的外汇策略师兼经济学家 Dhiraj Nim 表示。</p>
<p>“金融账户的流出只会加大压力。”</p>
<p>（报道：Nimesh Vora，Jaspreet Kalra；编辑：Ronojoy Mazumdar）</p>

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<p>印度卢比今年已下跌近 8%，成为亚洲表现最差的货币，尽管印度储备银行（RBI）每天约干预 10 亿美元以稳定汇率。高油价和美国国债收益率上升对卢比造成压力，卢比正接近历史低点。银行家表示，尽管 RBI 的举措减缓了卢比的下跌，但并未扭转趋势，市场预计将采取进一步措施以应对经常账户压力并改善资本流动</p>

<p>By Nimesh Vora and Jaspreet Kalra</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Nimesh Vora 和 Jaspreet Kalra</p>
</div><p>MUMBAI, May 20 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's daily currency market intervention, estimated at about $1 billion, per four bankers, is slowing but not halting the rupee's slide, with ‌the currency hitting a string of record lows under pressure from high oil prices and surging U.S. ‌Treasury yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孟买，5 月 20 日（路透社）——根据四位银行家的估计，印度储备银行每日的外汇市场干预约为 10 亿美元，虽然干预有所减缓，但并未阻止卢比贬值，卢比在高油价和飙升的美国国债收益率的压力下，创下了一系列历史新低。</p>
</div><p>The RBI has been selling dollars every day via state-run banks in the past one-and-a-half weeks to stem pressure on the rupee, the ​bankers said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行家表示，过去一个半星期，印度储备银行通过国有银行每日出售美元，以缓解卢比的压力。</p>
</div><p>India imports around 90% of its crude oil requirements, making higher for longer oil prices a key challenge, alongside subdued capital inflows and muted exporter dollar sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度约 90% 的原油需求依赖进口，长期高油价成为主要挑战，加上资本流入疲软和出口商美元销售乏力。</p>
</div><p>The absence of a resolution to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is leaving the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation against the dollar, even after its near 8% fall so far this year made it Asia's ‌worst performing currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与以色列的战争与伊朗的局势未能得到解决，使得卢比在对美元贬值方面更加脆弱，尽管今年迄今卢比已贬值近 8%，成为亚洲表现最差的货币。</p>
</div><p>Bankers estimate the RBI's daily ⁠dollar sales in the spot market to be between $800 million to $2 billion in recent days, based on USD/INR volumes, broker inputs on state-run bank activity and order flow patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行家估计，最近几天，印度储备银行在即期市场的每日美元销售额在 8 亿到 20 亿美元之间，基于美元/卢比的交易量、国有银行的活动和订单流动模式的经纪人输入。</p>
</div><p>Central bank ⁠intervention has moderated the pace of losses, rather than reverse them, with the rupee on a nine-day slide, nearing the 97 per dollar mark for the first time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行的干预减缓了贬值的速度，而不是逆转贬值，卢比已连续九天下滑，首次接近每美元 97 的关口。</p>
</div><p>The RBI did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度储备银行未立即回复寻求评论的电子邮件。</p>
</div><p>One banker, whose estimate is at ​the ​higher side of around $2 billion, said the intervention is &#34;in-and-out&#34;, rather than ​continuous through the session. This person, and other ‌bankers cited in the story, requested anonymity as they are not authorised to speak publicly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位银行家估计干预金额在约 20 亿美元的高端，他表示干预是 “进进出出”，而不是在整个交易时段内持续进行。此人和故事中提到的其他银行家要求匿名，因为他们没有被授权公开发言。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For the RBI, the aim is to manage the pace of the rupee’s decline and prevent it from turning into a self-fulfilling spiral,&#34; said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC FIRST Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于印度储备银行来说，目标是管理卢比贬值的速度，防止其变成自我实现的螺旋，” IDFC FIRST Bank 首席经济学家 Gaura Sen Gupta 表示。</p>
</div><p>Based on her calculations from reserve money data, she estimates that the RBI sold about $5 billion in the first week of May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据她对储备货币数据的计算，她估计印度储备银行在 5 月的第一周出售了约 50 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Sen Gupta expects further steps by the central bank to address current ‌account pressures and bolster capital flows, after the central bank cracked ​down on chunky arbitrage trades that had amplified pressure on the ​rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sen Gupta 预计，中央银行将采取进一步措施以应对经常账户压力并增强资本流入，此前中央银行对加剧卢比压力的大额套利交易进行了打击。</p>
</div><p>U.S. YIELDS COMPOUND OIL JOLT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国收益率加剧油价冲击</p>
</div><p>The surge in U.S. Treasury ​yields, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes in response to Iran war-linked inflation ‌concerns, is compounding pressure on the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于市场预期美联储将因与伊朗战争相关的通胀担忧而加息，美国国债收益率的飙升加剧了卢比的压力。</p>
</div><p>Market pricing ​of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes ​this year has climbed, a marked shift from pre-conflict sentiment, when markets expected the next move to be a rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对美联储今年潜在加息的定价上升，这与冲突前的情绪形成鲜明对比，当时市场预计下一步将是降息。</p>
</div><p>The concurrent pressures are skewing market flows against the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些同时出现的压力使市场流动性对卢比不利。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Exporters are delaying conversion of proceeds ... ​while importers are front-loading demand and hedging ‌aggressively. The result is a persistent imbalance in FX flows that intervention alone struggles to offset,&#34; said ​Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist and economist at ANZ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“出口商推迟兑换收益……而进口商则提前增加需求并积极对冲。结果是外汇流动中持续存在不平衡，仅靠干预难以弥补，” ANZ 的外汇策略师兼经济学家 Dhiraj Nim 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Outflows from the financial account only add to the ​pressure.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“金融账户的流出只会加大压力。”</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Nimesh Vora, Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（报道：Nimesh Vora，Jaspreet Kalra；编辑：Ronojoy Mazumdar）</p>
</div>

银行家表示，印度央行每日投入 10 亿美元进行外汇干预，但仍难以扭转卢比的贬值趋势