<p>在别人落魄时再给一脚。随着美元/日元逐渐回升，并威胁再次触及 160 水平，摩根士丹利发布了一份报告，认为仅靠日本财政部的干预不足以抑制这一货币对。</p>
<p>该公司指出，日元面临的几个因素极其负面，这一点我们之前也强调过。因此，他们指出，除非日本央行采取更鹰派的立场，否则整体背景将继续支撑美元/日元。</p>
<p><em>&#34;日元面临的最大阻力仍然是高企的油价、美国经济增长的超预期、长期高利率以及积极的风险情绪——这些因素都倾向于推高美元/日元。货币负面基本面可能解释了自 4 月 30 日以来，干预对美元/日元的影响相对较小，与 2022 年 10 月和 2024 年 7 月的干预相比，当时宏观条件也在朝同一方向发展。</em></p>
<p><em>总体而言，我们仍然对干预能否成功地将美元/日元持续压低持怀疑态度，除非出现更大的衰退担忧或更鹰派的日本央行。</em></p>
<p>本周早些时候的最新头条新闻进一步加剧了日元的困境。</p>
<p>新一轮的债务将对投资者对高市政府的信心造成另一次打击，而此时财政担忧已经因收益率上升而加剧。</p>
<p>这也给日本央行带来了更多复杂性，尤其是他们现在需要重新考虑缩减计划。正如本周早些时候提到的：</p>
<p><em>&#34;中央银行面临着在价格压力激增的情况下提高利率的压力，但又不想显得绝望，以至于仅仅为了捍卫下跌的日元而做出决定。</em></p>
<p><em>但与此同时，财政担忧和恶化的经济状况是日本央行必须努力平衡的两个主要痛点。因此，他们处于一个非常困难的境地。</em></p>
<p><em>我看不出日本债券市场的暴跌会以任何方式停止。10 年期收益率有很大可能性会达到 3%，这对日元的前景非常不利——比现在的情况更糟。</em></p>

GS-A

GS-D

高盛

GS-C

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>高盛警告称，仅靠日本的干预无法稳定接近 160 水平的美元/日元汇率。该公司指出，日元面临的负面因素包括高油价、美国经济强劲以及持续的高利率。他们对在没有日本银行（BOJ）采取更鹰派立场或增加衰退担忧的情况下，干预的有效性表示怀疑。此外，收益率上升和财政担忧使得日本银行的立场更加复杂，可能导致日元价值进一步下跌</p>

<p>Way to kick someone when they're down. As USD/JPY makes its way back up and threatens to take a look at the 160 level again, Goldman Sachs is out with a note arguing that intervention from Japan's ministry of finance alone will not be enough to keep a lid on the currency pair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在别人落魄时再给一脚。随着美元/日元逐渐回升，并威胁再次触及 160 水平，摩根士丹利发布了一份报告，认为仅靠日本财政部的干预不足以抑制这一货币对。</p>
</div><p>The firm points out several factors as being overwhelmingly negative for the yen currency, something that we've highlighted previously as well. As such, they are noting that the overall backdrop will keep USD/JPY underpinned unless a more hawkish BOJ comes into picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司指出，日元面临的几个因素极其负面，这一点我们之前也强调过。因此，他们指出，除非日本央行采取更鹰派的立场，否则整体背景将继续支撑美元/日元。</p>
</div><p><em>&#34;The biggest headwind to JPY continues to be the broader backdrop of elevated oil prices, US growth outperformance, higher-for-longer rates, and constructive risk sentiment- each of which tend to push up USD/JPY. Currency-negative fundamentals likely explain what appears to be the smaller impact of intervention on USD/JPY per $bn over the two weeks since April 30 compared to the interventions in October 2022 and July 2024, when macro conditions were also pushing in the same direction.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>&#34;日元面临的最大阻力仍然是高企的油价、美国经济增长的超预期、长期高利率以及积极的风险情绪——这些因素都倾向于推高美元/日元。货币负面基本面可能解释了自 4 月 30 日以来，干预对美元/日元的影响相对较小，与 2022 年 10 月和 2024 年 7 月的干预相比，当时宏观条件也在朝同一方向发展。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Overall, we continue to be skeptical that intervention can be successful in driving USD/JPY sustainably lower without a shift towards greater recession concerns or much more hawkish BOJ.&#34;</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>总体而言，我们仍然对干预能否成功地将美元/日元持续压低持怀疑态度，除非出现更大的衰退担忧或更鹰派的日本央行。</em></p>
</div><p>Compounding the misery for the yen is this latest headline earlier this week here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周早些时候的最新头条新闻进一步加剧了日元的困境。</p>
</div><p>A fresh round of debt will be another blow to investor confidence towards the Takaichi government, in a time when fiscal worries are already being driven up amid rising yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新一轮的债务将对投资者对高市政府的信心造成另一次打击，而此时财政担忧已经因收益率上升而加剧。</p>
</div><p>It also adds to more complications for the BOJ, not least with them needing to reconsider their tapering plans now. As mentioned earlier in the week:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也给日本央行带来了更多复杂性，尤其是他们现在需要重新考虑缩减计划。正如本周早些时候提到的：</p>
</div><p><em>&#34;The central bank is under pressure to raise interest rates amid surging price pressures, but don't want to seem desperate in deciding on that just to defend a falling yen currency.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>&#34;中央银行面临着在价格压力激增的情况下提高利率的压力，但又不想显得绝望，以至于仅仅为了捍卫下跌的日元而做出决定。</em></p>
</div><p><em>But at the same time, fiscal concerns and worsening economic conditions are two major pain points that the BOJ has to try and help balance out as well. So, they are put in a very tough spot.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>但与此同时，财政担忧和恶化的经济状况是日本央行必须努力平衡的两个主要痛点。因此，他们处于一个非常困难的境地。</em></p>
</div><p><em>I don't see how in any which way that the rout in the Japanese bond market will stop. There is a good chance that 10-year yields will look to 3% and that bodes very ill for the outlook of the yen currency - more so than it already is.&#34;</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>我看不出日本债券市场的暴跌会以任何方式停止。10 年期收益率有很大可能性会达到 3%，这对日元的前景非常不利——比现在的情况更糟。</em></p>
</div>

高盛表示，仅靠干预措施不足以稳定美元兑日元汇率