<p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi 和 Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>全球债券市场的抛售使得 10 年期国债收益率危险地接近 5%。</p>
<p>股票的牛市正面临飙升的债券收益率的挑战。</p>
<p>这个由人工智能驱动的牛市已经克服了一系列潜在的生存挑战，从 2023 年硅谷银行的崩溃到去年的关税风波。</p>
<p>但全球债券市场的严峻抛售——由高能源价格推动，霍尔木兹海峡的持续关闭重新点燃了通胀担忧——可能是股票牛市迄今为止面临的最大挑战，几位华尔街消息人士告诉 MarketWatch。牛市在去年 10 月迎来了第三个生日。</p>
<p>&#34;如果 10 年期国债收益率达到 5%，这将表明通胀现在是一个真正的问题，&#34; AE Wealth Management 的首席投资官 Ben Sullivan 表示。&#34;你可以肯定地看到市场对此感到不满。&#34;</p>
<p>在过去几天，美国及全球发达市场的收益率已推升至数十年来的最高水平。日本的长期收益率 BX:TMBMKJP-10Y 最近回到了 1990 年代的水平，这引发了人们对国内更高利率可能促使日本储户和投资者撤回资金的担忧。</p>
<p>根据道琼斯市场数据，周二，30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 达到了 5.18%，为 2007 年 7 月以来的最高水平。更重要的是，10 年期国债收益率目前约为 4.67%，看起来即将突破，正如 MarketWatch 早前报道的那样。</p>
<p>根据道琼斯市场数据，周二，10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 在东部时间下午 3 点触及自 2025 年 1 月以来的最高水平。作为背景，10 年期国债收益率自 2007 年夏季以来未曾超过 5%。</p>
<p>技术策略师认为，10 年期收益率在不久的将来可能会重新回到 5%，突破该水平的可能性很大。</p>
<p>根据 Fairlead Strategies 的创始人兼管理合伙人 Katie Stockton 的说法，Stockton 及其同事监测的短期和中期动量指标表明，10 年期收益率可能很快会重新测试 4.75%，这一水平与其 2025 年的高点一致。在突破该水平后，下一个目标可能是 5.25%。</p>
<p>BCA Research 的一项模型结合了技术输入以及通胀率等经济数据，也表明债券在未来几个月可能会继续挣扎，推动收益率上升。</p>
<p>&#34;我认为这是一个非常好的问题，&#34; Schultze Asset Management 的创始人兼首席执行官 George Schultze 在被问及日益不稳定的债券市场可能对股票构成的威胁时表示。&#34;我认为很多人并没有完全考虑到这一点。&#34;</p>
<p>需要速度</p>
<p>根据 FactSet 的数据，周二，标普 500 指数 SPX 连续第三天下跌——这是自 3 月底以来最长的连跌纪录。上涨的国债收益率被广泛认为是市场困境的主要原因。</p>
<p>&#34;很明显，10 年期收益率超过 4.5% 暗示了股票和风险资产的麻烦区域，&#34; 哥伦比亚线投资的首席投资策略师 Jason Vaillancourt 表示。</p>
<p>随着收益率的上升，股票和债券价格开始越来越多地同步波动。高盛的分析师指出，全球股票与 10 年期美国国债收益率之间的滚动三个月相关性已急剧转向负值，周二在与 MarketWatch 分享的评论中提到。债券收益率和债券价格呈反向移动。</p>
<p>当然，债券收益率的绝对水平并不总是对股票投资者最重要的事情。收益率上升得越快，股票所承受的痛苦就越大。至少，这就是过去的情况，高盛在下面的图表中展示了这一点。</p>
<p>&#34;5% 可能标志着投资者的一个重要心理水平，但我确实认为移动的速度才是关键。我们在 2023 年秋季收益率急剧上升、股票下跌时学到了这一点，&#34; Schwab 金融研究中心的宏观研究与策略负责人 Kevin Gordon 表示。</p>
<p>Evercore 创始人 Roger Altman 警告称，根据他的理解，全球能源市场（BRN00）（CL00）正接近一个&#34;临界点&#34;，他在周一的 CNBC 采访中表示。</p>
<p>折现率和现金流</p>
<p>较高的收益率通常会对股票产生压力，主要有两个原因。首先，正如 Schultze 所解释的，较高的收益率意味着股票分析师需要提高他们在估值模型中使用的折现率。</p>
<p>&#34;对于那些具有非常高增长商业模式的公司来说，你的估值折现将会显著增加，&#34; Schultze 表示。</p>
<p>但或许更重要的是，随着时间的推移，较高的收益率可能会伤害股票，尤其是企业利润。BCA Research 的首席全球策略师 Peter Berezin 表示，较高的收益率对经济增长起到制动作用。由于经济增长与企业现金流的速度相关，较弱的增长可能意味着流入企业资金的减少。</p>
<p>较高的收益率也可能对房地产市场施加更多压力，抑制消费者的消费倾向，Berezin 表示。最近，经济学家们认为财富效应帮助美国经济和市场在面对从最新的油价飙升到去年的关税戏剧等多重冲击时保持韧性。</p>
<p>随着公司越来越多地依赖外部融资来支付持续的人工智能建设，较高的收益率可能会妨碍一些公司融资新数据中心的能力。</p>
<p>当然，并不是所有人都认为较高的收益率会给股票带来严重问题。最近，股票投资者对企业利润的快速增长高度关注。只要利润不受影响，较高的收益率和较高的股票可能会共存，AllianceBernstein 的首席美国经济学家 Eric Winograd 表示。</p>
<p>“更高的收益率将增加股市的波动性，但我不会说这意味着股市必须下跌，” Winograd 对 MarketWatch 表示。</p>
<ul>
<li>约瑟夫·阿迪诺尔菲 - 乔伊·威尔特穆斯</li>
</ul>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-20-26 0700ET</p>

标普 500 指数

4 倍做多标普 500 ETN - MAX

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - iShares

<p>股票牛市面临重大挑战，因为全球债券收益率飙升，10 年期国债收益率接近 5%。这一上涨受到高能源价格和通胀担忧的推动，可能会影响股票估值和企业利润。分析师警告，收益率上升的速度至关重要，因为更高的收益率通常会导致股票估值的折现率上升。标普 500 指数已经出现下滑，归因于国债收益率上升，这表明股票可能面临困境</p>

<p>By Joseph Adinolfi and Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi 和 Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>A selloff in the global bond market is pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dangerously close to 5%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球债券市场的抛售使得 10 年期国债收益率危险地接近 5%。</p>
</div><p>The bull market in stocks is running up against surging bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的牛市正面临飙升的债券收益率的挑战。</p>
</div><p>This rip-roaring AI-powered bull market has already overcome a handful of potentially existential challenges, from the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank to last year's tariff tantrum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个由人工智能驱动的牛市已经克服了一系列潜在的生存挑战，从 2023 年硅谷银行的崩溃到去年的关税风波。</p>
</div><p>But a punishing selloff in the global bond market - driven by high energy prices, as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reignited inflation fears - could represent the biggest challenge yet for the bull market in stocks, several Wall Street sources told MarketWatch. The bull market reached its third birthday back in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但全球债券市场的严峻抛售——由高能源价格推动，霍尔木兹海峡的持续关闭重新点燃了通胀担忧——可能是股票牛市迄今为止面临的最大挑战，几位华尔街消息人士告诉 MarketWatch。牛市在去年 10 月迎来了第三个生日。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If the 10-year Treasury reached 5%, it would be an acknowledgement that inflation is now a real problem,&#34; said Ben Sullivan, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management. &#34;You can certainly see the market get cranky about that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果 10 年期国债收益率达到 5%，这将表明通胀现在是一个真正的问题，&#34; AE Wealth Management 的首席投资官 Ben Sullivan 表示。&#34;你可以肯定地看到市场对此感到不满。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Over the past few days, yields in the U.S. and in developed markets around the world have been pushing to their highest levels in decades. Long-term yields in Japan BX:TMBMKJP-10Y recently revisited levels from the 1990s, helping to revive worries that higher rates at home could inspire Japanese savers and investors to pull their money from foreign markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几天，美国及全球发达市场的收益率已推升至数十年来的最高水平。日本的长期收益率 BX:TMBMKJP-10Y 最近回到了 1990 年代的水平，这引发了人们对国内更高利率可能促使日本储户和投资者撤回资金的担忧。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y reached 5.18%, its highest level since July 2007, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Even more importantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, now around 4.67%, looks to be on the verge of a breakout, as MarketWatch reported earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据道琼斯市场数据，周二，30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 达到了 5.18%，为 2007 年 7 月以来的最高水平。更重要的是，10 年期国债收益率目前约为 4.67%，看起来即将突破，正如 MarketWatch 早前报道的那样。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y touched its highest level since January 2025 based on its 3 p.m. Eastern level, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For context, the yield on the 10-year hasn't topped 5% since the summer of 2007.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据道琼斯市场数据，周二，10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 在东部时间下午 3 点触及自 2025 年 1 月以来的最高水平。作为背景，10 年期国债收益率自 2007 年夏季以来未曾超过 5%。</p>
</div><p>Technical strategists see the 10-year yield revisiting 5% in the not-too-distant future, with a break above that level a real possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术策略师认为，10 年期收益率在不久的将来可能会重新回到 5%，突破该水平的可能性很大。</p>
</div><p>According to Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, short- and medium-term momentum indicators monitored by Stockton and her colleagues suggest that the 10-year yield could soon retest 4.75%, a level consistent with its 2025 high. After moving above that level, the next stop could be 5.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Fairlead Strategies 的创始人兼管理合伙人 Katie Stockton 的说法，Stockton 及其同事监测的短期和中期动量指标表明，10 年期收益率可能很快会重新测试 4.75%，这一水平与其 2025 年的高点一致。在突破该水平后，下一个目标可能是 5.25%。</p>
</div><p>A model from BCA Research that incorporates technical inputs as well as economic data like inflation rates also suggested that bonds could continue to struggle in the months ahead, pushing yields up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BCA Research 的一项模型结合了技术输入以及通胀率等经济数据，也表明债券在未来几个月可能会继续挣扎，推动收益率上升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think it's a really good question,&#34; said George Schultze, founder and CEO of Schultze Asset Management, when asked about the threat that an increasingly unsteady bond market might pose to stocks. &#34;I don't think many people have fully factored that in.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我认为这是一个非常好的问题，&#34; Schultze Asset Management 的创始人兼首席执行官 George Schultze 在被问及日益不稳定的债券市场可能对股票构成的威胁时表示。&#34;我认为很多人并没有完全考虑到这一点。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Need for speed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要速度</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX tallied a third straight day in the red - its longest losing streak since late March, according to FactSet. Rising Treasury yields were widely blamed for contributing to the market's woes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 FactSet 的数据，周二，标普 500 指数 SPX 连续第三天下跌——这是自 3 月底以来最长的连跌纪录。上涨的国债收益率被广泛认为是市场困境的主要原因。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's pretty clear the 10-year yield north of 4.5% is suggesting a trouble zone for equities and riskier assets,&#34; said Jason Vaillancourt, chief portfolio strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;很明显，10 年期收益率超过 4.5% 暗示了股票和风险资产的麻烦区域，&#34; 哥伦比亚线投资的首席投资策略师 Jason Vaillancourt 表示。</p>
</div><p>As yields have pushed higher, stocks and bond prices have increasingly started to move in lockstep. Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the rolling three-month correlation between global stocks and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has taken a sharp turn into negative territory, in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Tuesday. Bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着收益率的上升，股票和债券价格开始越来越多地同步波动。高盛的分析师指出，全球股票与 10 年期美国国债收益率之间的滚动三个月相关性已急剧转向负值，周二在与 MarketWatch 分享的评论中提到。债券收益率和债券价格呈反向移动。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, the absolute level of bond yields isn't always the most important thing for equity investors. The quicker that yields advance, the more pain stocks will feel. At least, that is how things have worked in the past, as Goldman showed in the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，债券收益率的绝对水平并不总是对股票投资者最重要的事情。收益率上升得越快，股票所承受的痛苦就越大。至少，这就是过去的情况，高盛在下面的图表中展示了这一点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;5% could mark an important psychological level for investors, but I do think the speed of the move is what matters. We learned that in the fall of 2023 when yields were rising sharply and stocks sold off,&#34; said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;5% 可能标志着投资者的一个重要心理水平，但我确实认为移动的速度才是关键。我们在 2023 年秋季收益率急剧上升、股票下跌时学到了这一点，&#34; Schwab 金融研究中心的宏观研究与策略负责人 Kevin Gordon 表示。</p>
</div><p>Evercore founder Roger Altman warned that, based on his understanding, the global energy market (BRN00) (CL00) was nearing a &#34;tipping point,&#34; during an interview on CNBC on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 创始人 Roger Altman 警告称，根据他的理解，全球能源市场（BRN00）（CL00）正接近一个&#34;临界点&#34;，他在周一的 CNBC 采访中表示。</p>
</div><p>Discount rates and cash flows</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现率和现金流</p>
</div><p>Higher yields typically weigh on stocks for two key reasons. One, as Schultze explained, is that higher yields mean equity analysts need to raise the discount rates they use in their valuation models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的收益率通常会对股票产生压力，主要有两个原因。首先，正如 Schultze 所解释的，较高的收益率意味着股票分析师需要提高他们在估值模型中使用的折现率。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For companies with these really high-growth business models, your valuation discount will increase more substantially,&#34; Schultze said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;对于那些具有非常高增长商业模式的公司来说，你的估值折现将会显著增加，&#34; Schultze 表示。</p>
</div><p>But perhaps even more importantly, over time, higher yields could hurt stocks where it hurts: corporate profits. Higher yields act as a brake on economic growth, said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. Since economic growth and the pace of corporate cash flows are related, weaker growth could mean less money flowing into corporate coffers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但或许更重要的是，随着时间的推移，较高的收益率可能会伤害股票，尤其是企业利润。BCA Research 的首席全球策略师 Peter Berezin 表示，较高的收益率对经济增长起到制动作用。由于经济增长与企业现金流的速度相关，较弱的增长可能意味着流入企业资金的减少。</p>
</div><p>Higher yields could also put more pressure on the housing market, dampening consumers' propensity to spend, Berezin said. Lately, economists have credited the wealth effect with helping to keep the U.S. economy and markets resilient in the face of myriad shocks, from the latest spike in oil prices to last year's tariff drama.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的收益率也可能对房地产市场施加更多压力，抑制消费者的消费倾向，Berezin 表示。最近，经济学家们认为财富效应帮助美国经济和市场在面对从最新的油价飙升到去年的关税戏剧等多重冲击时保持韧性。</p>
</div><p>And as companies increasingly turn to external financing to pay for the ongoing AI buildout, higher yields could hamper some companies' ability to finance new data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着公司越来越多地依赖外部融资来支付持续的人工智能建设，较高的收益率可能会妨碍一些公司融资新数据中心的能力。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, not everybody expects higher yields will create serious problems for stocks. Recently, equity investors have been laser-focused on the rapid growth in corporate profits. As long as profits aren't affected, there could be room for higher yields and higher stocks to coexist, said Eric Winograd, chief U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，并不是所有人都认为较高的收益率会给股票带来严重问题。最近，股票投资者对企业利润的快速增长高度关注。只要利润不受影响，较高的收益率和较高的股票可能会共存，AllianceBernstein 的首席美国经济学家 Eric Winograd 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Higher yields will increase volatility in the stock market, but I wouldn't say that means the stock market has to go down,&#34; Winograd told MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更高的收益率将增加股市的波动性，但我不会说这意味着股市必须下跌，” Winograd 对 MarketWatch 表示。</p>
</div><p>-Joseph Adinolfi -Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>约瑟夫·阿迪诺尔菲 - 乔伊·威尔特穆斯</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-20-26 0700ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-20-26 0700ET</p>
</div>

This relentless bull market is about to face its biggest test yet

- 全球债市抛售使 10 年期国债收益率接近 5% 的关键水平。
- 高收益率对股市构成压力，分析师担忧将影响经济增长和企业利润。
- 股票与债券收益率之间的负相关性日益显著，市场波动加剧。

这个持续上涨的牛市即将迎来其最大的考验