<p>最近，现货黄金持续出现剧烈抛售，跌破每盎司 4500 美元的心理关口。5 月 20 日</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png"/></p>
<p>由于霍尔木兹海峡的地缘政治僵局持续，油价保持高位，许多国家的美元流动性持续承压，迫使它们出售黄金；与此同时，印度大幅提高了黄金进口关税。全球央行在第一季度的黄金购买低于预期，加上通胀和加息预期上升等多重因素，显著压制了黄金价格。尤其是在美国国债收益率飙升的背景下（10 年期国债收益率超过 4.5%，30 年期国债收益率超过 5.0%），持有黄金的成本增加，风险收益比恶化，CTA 和杠杆基金被迫平仓，从而加剧了短期波动。此外，在石油供应冲击的影响下，黄金与油价呈现出强烈的负相关关系，而黄金与股市则表现出相对正相关。这表明黄金市场尚未为避险情景做好准备。然而，尽管投机性净多头头寸明显减少，但之前涌入黄金的零售资金尚未完全退出市场。这使得黄金市场处于持续脆弱的状态：对任何关于中东僵局、加息或美元走强的负面消息反应过度。此外，黄金价格对实际利率上升仍高度敏感，黄金的调整在短期内不太可能结束。黄金的短期突破表明，在当前的交易逻辑下，它尚未进入避险模式，而是继续表现出高度贝塔风险资产的特征。这意味着市场将保持在风险释放的波动期，投资者在战术层面需要保持谨慎和耐心。然而，从战略上看，我们对黄金依然看涨：在暂时的流动性紧缩结束后，长期逻辑将恢复，财政恶化、美元多元化和地缘政治不确定性将继续增强黄金作为保险资产的作用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>全球央行黄金购买略微减少支持</strong></h2>
<p>自俄乌冲突以来，全球央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）持续的黄金购买是支撑黄金价格的最稳定力量。</p>
<p>自俄乌冲突以来，全球央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）持续的黄金购买是支撑黄金价格的最稳定力量。</p>
<p>在美伊冲突期间，一个关键变化是一些央行因流动性压力被迫成为黄金卖家。例如，土耳其央行在 3 月通过销售和掉期操作出售了约 60 吨黄金储备，以捍卫因能源进口成本飙升而暴跌的里拉。此外，印度最近将黄金进口关税翻倍至 15%，并实施严格的进口配额，以应对外汇压力，这可能导致印度私人黄金需求下降，给黄金价格带来暂时压力。考虑到当前的地缘政治风险和高油价的影响，美元流动性压力将持续，一些面临美元流动性短缺的央行可能会继续出售黄金。然而，许多地区仍在战略性地增加黄金储备。例如，中国人民银行在 4 月再次加快了黄金购买，标志着连续第 17 个月增加。目前，全球其他央行的结构性购买在这一高黄金价格和波动性时期有所放缓，许多人在等待更好的入场时机。这种短期战术沉寂已成为削弱黄金价格的重要力量。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>尽管央行黄金购买目前正在放缓，但预计到 2026 年，平均每月购买量仍将达到 60 吨。目前，全球央行黄金购买数据显著被低估，因为大部分并未正式披露。通过英国海关的净黄金出口数据和伦敦黄金库的变化，可以追踪到大量隐藏的购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>尽管央行黄金购买目前正在放缓，但预计到 2026 年，平均每月购买量仍将达到 60 吨。目前，全球央行黄金购买数据显著被低估，因为大部分并未正式披露。通过英国海关的净黄金出口数据和伦敦黄金库的变化，可以追踪到大量隐藏的购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>黄金价格在短期内将保持波动，但中长期的积极逻辑依然存在</strong></h2>
<p>黄金的未来趋势将取决于三个阶段：</p>
<ol>
<li>当前的通胀冲击阶段。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>当前的通胀冲击阶段。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>通货膨胀冲击和高利率抑制：黄金价格仍面临波动风险；2) 增长放缓阶段：高油价拖累经济，导致全球增长放缓；3) 政策转变阶段：随着经济下行压力加大，全球各国央行开始回归宽松，实际利率下降，黄金重新进入上升周期。目前，中东局势仍不确定，油价高企，通胀预期和实际利率均在上升。此外，对双重通胀的担忧加剧，将进一步巩固全球央行的鹰派立场。高实际利率也增加了持有黄金的机会成本。短期内，黄金价格预计将在 4500 美元附近大幅波动，甚至可能测试 4300 美元的支撑区间。波动性将保持高位，市场情绪将保持敏感。需密切关注中东局势的边际变化以及 4500 美元附近的巩固确认。下一个交易重点将是观察油价的顶部特征和地缘政治谈判的实质性进展。如果中东局势大幅缓解，原油的供应溢价将迅速被挤出，美元的疲软趋势将重新出现，黄金的压力将得到缓解。从技术上看，投资者需要警惕 4500 美元以下的假突破。一旦市场情绪极度悲观且看跌动能耗尽，强劲反弹突破该水平将是明确的右侧买入信号。在中长期内，央行购金的基本逻辑从未动摇，历史的重现将提供坚实的底部支撑。尽管一些新兴市场在短期内出售黄金以缓解财务困难，但这仅仅是战术上的妥协。从长期来看，世界正从单极霸权和美元主导向大国竞争和多极化转变。目前，新兴市场央行的黄金储备仅占其总储备的 16%，与历史平均水平（约 40%）相比，仍有显著增长空间。总体而言，最近黄金价格跌破每盎司 4500 美元代表着由流动性紧缩、实际利率飙升和拥挤的多头头寸等多重因素驱动的压力测试。在战术层面，投资者需要保持足够的安全边际，避免盲目承担下跌风险，等待市场底部自然形成。在战略层面，基于去美元化浪潮、西方机构资金的潜在进入以及债务货币化的长期前景，黄金长期牛市的基础依然稳固。</li>
</ol>

纽蒙特矿业

山东黄金

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

<p>黄金价格已跌至每盎司 4,500 美元以下，原因是地缘政治紧张局势、高油价以及印度提高进口关税的综合影响。中央银行已减少黄金购买，流动性压力迫使一些机构出售黄金。尽管短期内波动性较大，但长期前景依然乐观，因为地缘政治的不确定性和财政恶化可能增强黄金作为避险资产的作用。建议投资者在当前市场环境中保持谨慎</p>

<p>Recently, spot gold continued to experience a sharp sell-off, falling below the psychological level of $4,500 per ounce. On May 20th</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，现货黄金持续出现剧烈抛售，跌破每盎司 4500 美元的心理关口。5 月 20 日</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469212_image3.png"/></p>
<p>With the geopolitical stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz persisting and oil prices remaining high, dollar liquidity in many countries continues to be under pressure, forcing them to sell gold; meanwhile, India has significantly increased import tariffs on gold. The combination of factors, including lower-than-expected global central bank gold purchases in the first quarter and rising expectations of inflation and interest rate hikes, significantly suppressed gold prices. Particularly against the backdrop of soaring US Treasury yields (10-year Treasury yields exceeding 4.5% and 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5.0%), the cost of holding gold increased, the risk-reward ratio deteriorated, and CTA and leveraged funds were forced to liquidate their positions, thus exacerbating short-term volatility. Furthermore, under the impact of oil supply shocks, gold and oil prices showed a strong negative correlation, while gold and the stock market showed a relatively positive correlation. This indicates that the gold market is not yet prepared for a safe-haven scenario. However, although speculative net long positions have clearly decreased, retail funds that previously flooded into gold &#34;currency devaluation trading&#34; have not yet fully exited the market. This leaves the gold market in a state of continued vulnerability: it overreacts to any negative news regarding the Middle East stalemate, interest rate hikes, or a stronger dollar. Furthermore, gold prices remain highly sensitive to rising real interest rates, and the gold correction is unlikely to end in the short term. The short-term breakout in gold indicates that, under the current trading logic, it has not yet entered a safe-haven mode, but continues to exhibit characteristics of a highly beta risk asset. This means that the market will remain in a volatile period of risk release, and investors need to remain cautious and patient at the tactical level. However, strategically, we remain bullish on gold: After the end of the temporary liquidity squeeze, the long-term logic will return, and fiscal deterioration, dollar diversification, and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to strengthen gold's role as an insurance asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于霍尔木兹海峡的地缘政治僵局持续，油价保持高位，许多国家的美元流动性持续承压，迫使它们出售黄金；与此同时，印度大幅提高了黄金进口关税。全球央行在第一季度的黄金购买低于预期，加上通胀和加息预期上升等多重因素，显著压制了黄金价格。尤其是在美国国债收益率飙升的背景下（10 年期国债收益率超过 4.5%，30 年期国债收益率超过 5.0%），持有黄金的成本增加，风险收益比恶化，CTA 和杠杆基金被迫平仓，从而加剧了短期波动。此外，在石油供应冲击的影响下，黄金与油价呈现出强烈的负相关关系，而黄金与股市则表现出相对正相关。这表明黄金市场尚未为避险情景做好准备。然而，尽管投机性净多头头寸明显减少，但之前涌入黄金的零售资金尚未完全退出市场。这使得黄金市场处于持续脆弱的状态：对任何关于中东僵局、加息或美元走强的负面消息反应过度。此外，黄金价格对实际利率上升仍高度敏感，黄金的调整在短期内不太可能结束。黄金的短期突破表明，在当前的交易逻辑下，它尚未进入避险模式，而是继续表现出高度贝塔风险资产的特征。这意味着市场将保持在风险释放的波动期，投资者在战术层面需要保持谨慎和耐心。然而，从战略上看，我们对黄金依然看涨：在暂时的流动性紧缩结束后，长期逻辑将恢复，财政恶化、美元多元化和地缘政治不确定性将继续增强黄金作为保险资产的作用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469215_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Global central bank gold purchases have slightly reduced support</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>全球央行黄金购买略微减少支持</strong></h2>
</div><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world (especially emerging market central banks) have been the most stable force supporting gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自俄乌冲突以来，全球央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）持续的黄金购买是支撑黄金价格的最稳定力量。</p>
</div><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world (especially emerging market central banks) have been the most stable force supporting gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自俄乌冲突以来，全球央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）持续的黄金购买是支撑黄金价格的最稳定力量。</p>
</div><p>During the US-Iran conflict, a key change was that some central banks were forced to become gold sellers due to liquidity pressures. For example, the Turkish central bank sold approximately 60 tons of gold reserves in March through sales and swap operations to defend the lira, which had plummeted due to soaring energy import costs. Adding to this, India recently doubled its gold import tariff to 15% and imposed strict import quotas to cope with foreign exchange pressures, which will likely lead to a decline in private gold demand in India, putting temporary pressure on gold prices. Given the current geopolitical risks and the impact of high oil prices, dollar liquidity pressures will continue, and some central banks facing dollar liquidity shortages may continue to sell gold. However, many regions continue to strategically increase their gold reserves. For example, the People's Bank of China accelerated its gold purchases again in April, marking the 17th consecutive month of increases. Currently, structural buying by other central banks globally has slowed down during this period of high gold prices and increased volatility, with many waiting for a better entry point. This short-term tactical silence has become a significant force weakening gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美伊冲突期间，一个关键变化是一些央行因流动性压力被迫成为黄金卖家。例如，土耳其央行在 3 月通过销售和掉期操作出售了约 60 吨黄金储备，以捍卫因能源进口成本飙升而暴跌的里拉。此外，印度最近将黄金进口关税翻倍至 15%，并实施严格的进口配额，以应对外汇压力，这可能导致印度私人黄金需求下降，给黄金价格带来暂时压力。考虑到当前的地缘政治风险和高油价的影响，美元流动性压力将持续，一些面临美元流动性短缺的央行可能会继续出售黄金。然而，许多地区仍在战略性地增加黄金储备。例如，中国人民银行在 4 月再次加快了黄金购买，标志着连续第 17 个月增加。目前，全球其他央行的结构性购买在这一高黄金价格和波动性时期有所放缓，许多人在等待更好的入场时机。这种短期战术沉寂已成为削弱黄金价格的重要力量。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Although central bank gold purchases are currently slowing, they are still expected to reach an average monthly purchase volume of 60 tons in 2026. Currently, global central bank gold purchase data is significantly underestimated because a large portion is not officially disclosed. A large amount of hidden buying can be tracked through UK customs net gold export data and changes in London gold vaults.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管央行黄金购买目前正在放缓，但预计到 2026 年，平均每月购买量仍将达到 60 吨。目前，全球央行黄金购买数据显著被低估，因为大部分并未正式披露。通过英国海关的净黄金出口数据和伦敦黄金库的变化，可以追踪到大量隐藏的购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469216_image3.png"/></p>
<p>While central bank gold purchases are currently slowing, they are still expected to reach an average monthly purchase volume of 60 tons in 2026. Currently, global central bank gold purchase data is significantly underestimated because a large portion is not officially disclosed. A large amount of hidden buying can be tracked through UK customs net gold export data and changes in London gold vaults.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管央行黄金购买目前正在放缓，但预计到 2026 年，平均每月购买量仍将达到 60 吨。目前，全球央行黄金购买数据显著被低估，因为大部分并未正式披露。通过英国海关的净黄金出口数据和伦敦黄金库的变化，可以追踪到大量隐藏的购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7469217_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Gold prices will remain volatile in the short term, but the medium- to long-term positive logic remains</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>黄金价格在短期内将保持波动，但中长期的积极逻辑依然存在</strong></h2>
</div><p>The future trend of gold will depend on three stages:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的未来趋势将取决于三个阶段：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The current inflation shock stage.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>当前的通胀冲击阶段。</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>The current inflation shock stage.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>当前的通胀冲击阶段。</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Inflationary shocks and high interest rate suppression: Gold prices still face volatility risks; 2) Slowing growth phase: High oil prices drag down the economy, leading to a slowdown in global growth; 3) Policy shift phase: As downward pressure on the economy increases, central banks around the world are shifting back to easing, real interest rates are falling, and gold is re-entering an upward cycle. Currently, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, oil prices are high, and both inflation expectations and real interest rates are rising. Furthermore, increasing concerns about double-dip inflation will further solidify the hawkish stance of global central banks. High real interest rates also increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate widely around $4,500 in the short term, potentially even testing the $4,300 support zone. Volatility will remain high, and market sentiment will remain sensitive. Closely monitor marginal changes in the Middle East situation and confirmation of a consolidation around $4,500. The next trading focus will be on observing the topping characteristics of oil prices and substantial progress in geopolitical negotiations. If the situation in the Middle East eases substantially, the supply premium for crude oil will be quickly squeezed out, the weakening trend of the US dollar will reappear, and the heavy pressure on gold will be relieved. Technically, investors need to be wary of a false breakout below $4500. Once market sentiment becomes extremely pessimistic and the bearish momentum is exhausted, a strong recovery above this level would be a clear right-side buy signal. In the medium to long term, the underlying logic of central bank gold purchases has never wavered, and the historical recurrence will provide solid bottom support. Although some emerging markets have sold off gold in the short term to alleviate their financial difficulties, this is merely a tactical compromise. From a long-term perspective, the world is moving from unipolar hegemony and the dominance of the US dollar towards great power competition and multipolarity. Currently, emerging market central banks' gold reserves account for only 16% of their total reserves, leaving significant room for growth compared to the historical average (approximately 40%). Overall, the recent drop in gold prices below $4,500 per ounce represents a stress test driven by a combination of factors, including liquidity squeeze, a surge in real interest rates, and crowded long positions. At the tactical level, investors need to maintain a sufficient safety margin, avoid blindly taking on the risk of a decline, and wait for the market bottom to form naturally. At the strategic level, based on the wave of de-dollarization, the potential entry of Western institutional funds, and the long-term prospect of debt monetization, the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>通货膨胀冲击和高利率抑制：黄金价格仍面临波动风险；2) 增长放缓阶段：高油价拖累经济，导致全球增长放缓；3) 政策转变阶段：随着经济下行压力加大，全球各国央行开始回归宽松，实际利率下降，黄金重新进入上升周期。目前，中东局势仍不确定，油价高企，通胀预期和实际利率均在上升。此外，对双重通胀的担忧加剧，将进一步巩固全球央行的鹰派立场。高实际利率也增加了持有黄金的机会成本。短期内，黄金价格预计将在 4500 美元附近大幅波动，甚至可能测试 4300 美元的支撑区间。波动性将保持高位，市场情绪将保持敏感。需密切关注中东局势的边际变化以及 4500 美元附近的巩固确认。下一个交易重点将是观察油价的顶部特征和地缘政治谈判的实质性进展。如果中东局势大幅缓解，原油的供应溢价将迅速被挤出，美元的疲软趋势将重新出现，黄金的压力将得到缓解。从技术上看，投资者需要警惕 4500 美元以下的假突破。一旦市场情绪极度悲观且看跌动能耗尽，强劲反弹突破该水平将是明确的右侧买入信号。在中长期内，央行购金的基本逻辑从未动摇，历史的重现将提供坚实的底部支撑。尽管一些新兴市场在短期内出售黄金以缓解财务困难，但这仅仅是战术上的妥协。从长期来看，世界正从单极霸权和美元主导向大国竞争和多极化转变。目前，新兴市场央行的黄金储备仅占其总储备的 16%，与历史平均水平（约 40%）相比，仍有显著增长空间。总体而言，最近黄金价格跌破每盎司 4500 美元代表着由流动性紧缩、实际利率飙升和拥挤的多头头寸等多重因素驱动的压力测试。在战术层面，投资者需要保持足够的安全边际，避免盲目承担下跌风险，等待市场底部自然形成。在战略层面，基于去美元化浪潮、西方机构资金的潜在进入以及债务货币化的长期前景，黄金长期牛市的基础依然稳固。</li>
</ol>
</div>

Gold fell below $4,500. How long will this correction last?

CoinLive

Kinross Gold

中金黄金

紫金矿业

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金 ETF - iShares

黄金 ETF - SPDR

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

华夏黄金ETF

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

黄金 MiniShares 信托 - SPDR

黄金价格跌破 4500 美元。这次价格调整会持续多久？