<p>关于电动车市场的所有悲观情绪？那只是美国的问题。根据国际能源署的一份新报告，世界其他地方对电动车的需求却是供不应求。</p>
<p>去年电动车销量超过 2000 万辆，占全球市场的 25%。增长最快的地区是中国，其他地区的市场份额也在加速提升。例如，在拉丁美洲，销量增长了 75%。与此同时，美国的销量停滞不前，电动车市场份额徘徊在 10% 左右。</p>
<p>电动车市场已经呈现 K 型发展，所有类型的汽车制造商——无论是传统企业还是初创公司——都应该引起重视。</p>
<p>去年，美国的销量受到《一项美丽的法案》的制约，该法案取消了电动车税收抵免，并实施了阻止中国汽车制造商进入市场的政策。</p>
<p>对于像 Rivian 和 Lucid 这样的初创公司来说，它们在美国市场的重投资无疑使未来的道路更加艰难。传统汽车制造商则相对有保障，因为它们可以依靠更有利润的化石燃料汽车——至少在短期内是这样。但如果没有稳固的电动车战略，它们将面临随着消费者口味和期望的变化而失去更多全球市场份额的风险。</p>
<p>在其他地方，中国汽车制造商正在推动 K 型的上升部分。增长在中国最为明显，近 55% 的新车是电动车。价格的可负担性也起到了帮助：在中国，超过三分之二的电动车售价低于平均化石燃料汽车的价格。</p>
<p>中国汽车制造商还推动了东南亚、拉丁美洲和欧洲的电动车销量增长。例如，在东南亚，超过一半的电动车是由中国公司制造的，而欧洲则进口了超过 50 万辆中国电动车。</p>
<p>东南亚和拉丁美洲电动车的惊人增长打破了一个普遍的理论，即电动车对发展中经济体来说太过昂贵。根据国际能源署的报告，在泰国，电动车的价格在过去两年与内燃机汽车持平。“来自中国的经济型电动车进口降低了价格，并推动了许多新兴市场的电动车销量。”</p>
<p>不过，这种情况可能不会永远持续。</p>
<p>中国汽车制造商出口的车辆数量比外国市场购买的数量多出超过 25%。中国以外的经销商可能会抵制接受更多电动车，直到他们能销售手头的库存。此外，各国可能会开始对涌入的廉价中国汽车感到不满，并征收关税。</p>
<p>即使那样，认为中国品牌会被淘汰是愚蠢的。共产党已经投入了大量资金，将其汽车工业打造成一个强大的产业。因此，该国拥有足够的生产能力来满足全球 65% 的需求。得益于国家支持，中国汽车制造商能够在其他公司保持偿付能力的时间内，生产出超出数量的车辆。</p>
<p>从长远来看，电动车承诺将削弱化石燃料汽车的市场，即使没有补贴。根据 Gartner 的预测，早在明年，电池电动车的生产成本将低于内燃机汽车。</p>
<p>特朗普政府试图将美国市场重新引导回化石燃料，或许认为国内市场与其他市场不同，但这正面临着强劲的阻力。根据 BloombergNEF 的数据，化石燃料乘用车和轻型卡车的市场在 2017 年达到了顶峰，尽管混合动力和插电式混合动力汽车的销量在上升，但增长速度并没有纯电动车快。</p>
<p>或许最具警示意义的故事并非来自美国汽车制造商，而是来自一家日本汽车制造商。</p>
<p>本田最近取消了三个电动车项目，危及其作为全球汽车制造商的未来。通过减少对电动车的投入，它将错失帮助特斯拉和比亚迪降低车辆成本的重要经验。而且，由于电动车是构建软件定义车辆的理想平台，本田将错失行业内正在席卷的另一个趋势，这一趋势也帮助公司削减了开支。</p>
<p>总的来说，这为那些减少电动车雄心的传统汽车制造商描绘了一幅严峻的图景。</p>
<p>那些未能理顺各自电动车业务的公司可能会在全球市场中输给竞争对手，牺牲可能使其在未来几年保持竞争力的收入。</p>

<p>全球电动汽车（EV）市场蓬勃发展，去年销量超过 2000 万辆，尤其是在中国和拉丁美洲。然而，由于政策障碍，美国市场的市场份额停滞在约 10%。中国汽车制造商在增长中处于领先地位，使电动汽车在新兴市场变得更加实惠。如果传统汽车制造商不适应电动汽车趋势，可能会面临失去市场份额的风险，而美国政府则在推动对化石燃料的依赖，面临全球市场向电动汽车转型的挑战</p>

<p>All that doom and gloom about the state of the electric vehicle market? That’s just an American problem. The rest of the world can’t get enough EVs, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于电动车市场的所有悲观情绪？那只是美国的问题。根据国际能源署的一份新报告，世界其他地方对电动车的需求却是供不应求。</p>
</div><p>EV sales surpassed 20 million units last year, capturing 25% of the global market. Growth was highest in China and market share in other regions has also been picking up pace. In Latin America, for example, sales grew by 75%. Meanwhile, sales in the U.S. are stagnant, with EVs hovering around 10% market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年电动车销量超过 2000 万辆，占全球市场的 25%。增长最快的地区是中国，其他地区的市场份额也在加速提升。例如，在拉丁美洲，销量增长了 75%。与此同时，美国的销量停滞不前，电动车市场份额徘徊在 10% 左右。</p>
</div><p>The EV market has gone K-shaped, and automakers of all stripes — legacy and startup — had better pay attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车市场已经呈现 K 型发展，所有类型的汽车制造商——无论是传统企业还是初创公司——都应该引起重视。</p>
</div><p>Sales figures in the U.S. were held back last year by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which killed EV tax credits, along with policies that have prevented Chinese automakers from entering the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，美国的销量受到《一项美丽的法案》的制约，该法案取消了电动车税收抵免，并实施了阻止中国汽车制造商进入市场的政策。</p>
</div><p>For startups like Rivian and Lucid, which are heavily invested in the U.S. market, it certainly makes for a more challenging road ahead. Legacy automakers are somewhat insulated since they can lean on more profitable fossil fuel vehicles — at least in the short term. But without a solid EV strategy, they stand to lose more global market share as consumer tastes and expectations shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像 Rivian 和 Lucid 这样的初创公司来说，它们在美国市场的重投资无疑使未来的道路更加艰难。传统汽车制造商则相对有保障，因为它们可以依靠更有利润的化石燃料汽车——至少在短期内是这样。但如果没有稳固的电动车战略，它们将面临随着消费者口味和期望的变化而失去更多全球市场份额的风险。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, Chinese automakers have been driving the upper leg of the K higher. The growth has been most apparent in China, where nearly 55% of new vehicles were electric. Affordability helps: more than two-thirds of EVs sold in the country were cheaper than the average fossil fuel car.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其他地方，中国汽车制造商正在推动 K 型的上升部分。增长在中国最为明显，近 55% 的新车是电动车。价格的可负担性也起到了帮助：在中国，超过三分之二的电动车售价低于平均化石燃料汽车的价格。</p>
</div><p>Chinese automakers also helped drive EV sales higher in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. More than half of all EVs sold in Southeast Asia were made by a Chinese company, for example, while Europe imported over half a million Chinese EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国汽车制造商还推动了东南亚、拉丁美洲和欧洲的电动车销量增长。例如，在东南亚，超过一半的电动车是由中国公司制造的，而欧洲则进口了超过 50 万辆中国电动车。</p>
</div><p>The stunning growth of EVs in Southeast Asia and Latin America punctures one prevailing theory that electric cars would be too expensive for developing economies. EV prices have been on par with internal combustion vehicles for the last two years in Thailand. “Imports of affordable electric cars from China have brought down prices and driven up EV sales in many emerging markets in recent years,” the IEA report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东南亚和拉丁美洲电动车的惊人增长打破了一个普遍的理论，即电动车对发展中经济体来说太过昂贵。根据国际能源署的报告，在泰国，电动车的价格在过去两年与内燃机汽车持平。“来自中国的经济型电动车进口降低了价格，并推动了许多新兴市场的电动车销量。”</p>
</div><p>That may not last forever, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这种情况可能不会永远持续。</p>
</div><p>Chinese automakers exported more than 25% more vehicles than were bought in foreign markets. Dealers outside of China might resist accepting more EVs until they can sell what they have on hand. Plus, countries might begin to chafe at the flood of inexpensive Chinese cars and institute tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国汽车制造商出口的车辆数量比外国市场购买的数量多出超过 25%。中国以外的经销商可能会抵制接受更多电动车，直到他们能销售手头的库存。此外，各国可能会开始对涌入的廉价中国汽车感到不满，并征收关税。</p>
</div><p>Even if that happens, it would be foolish to count Chinese brands out. The Communist Party has invested significant sums to turn its automotive industry into a powerhouse. As a result, the country has enough manufacturing capacity to fulfill 65% of global demand. Thanks to state support, Chinese automakers could produce an outsized number of vehicles far longer than other companies can remain solvent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使那样，认为中国品牌会被淘汰是愚蠢的。共产党已经投入了大量资金，将其汽车工业打造成一个强大的产业。因此，该国拥有足够的生产能力来满足全球 65% 的需求。得益于国家支持，中国汽车制造商能够在其他公司保持偿付能力的时间内，生产出超出数量的车辆。</p>
</div><p>In the long run, though, EVs promise to undercut fossil fuel vehicles, even without subsidies. As early as next year, battery electric vehicles will be cheaper to make than internal combustion vehicles, according to Gartner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，电动车承诺将削弱化石燃料汽车的市场，即使没有补贴。根据 Gartner 的预测，早在明年，电池电动车的生产成本将低于内燃机汽车。</p>
</div><p>The Trump administration is trying to steer the U.S. market back toward fossil fuels, perhaps convinced that the domestic market is different from others, but it’s pushing into stiff headwinds. The market for fossil fuel passenger vehicles and light trucks peaked in 2017, according to BloombergNEF, and while hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales are rising, they’re not growing as quickly as pure EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府试图将美国市场重新引导回化石燃料，或许认为国内市场与其他市场不同，但这正面临着强劲的阻力。根据 BloombergNEF 的数据，化石燃料乘用车和轻型卡车的市场在 2017 年达到了顶峰，尽管混合动力和插电式混合动力汽车的销量在上升，但增长速度并没有纯电动车快。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the most cautionary tale comes not from an American automaker, but a Japanese one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许最具警示意义的故事并非来自美国汽车制造商，而是来自一家日本汽车制造商。</p>
</div><p>Honda, which recently killed three EV projects, has imperiled its future as a global car manufacturer. By pulling back on EVs, it will forgo crucial lessons that have helped companies like Tesla and BYD slash the cost of their vehicles. And because EVs are ideal platforms on which to build software-defined vehicles, Honda stands to miss out on the other trend that’s sweeping the industry, one that has also helped companies trim expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本田最近取消了三个电动车项目，危及其作为全球汽车制造商的未来。通过减少对电动车的投入，它将错失帮助特斯拉和比亚迪降低车辆成本的重要经验。而且，由于电动车是构建软件定义车辆的理想平台，本田将错失行业内正在席卷的另一个趋势，这一趋势也帮助公司削减了开支。</p>
</div><p>In all, it paints a grim picture for legacy automakers that have dialed back EV ambitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，这为那些减少电动车雄心的传统汽车制造商描绘了一幅严峻的图景。</p>
</div><p>Companies that don’t get their respective EV houses in order could lose out to competitors in the global market, sacrificing revenue that could keep them competitive for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些未能理顺各自电动车业务的公司可能会在全球市场中输给竞争对手，牺牲可能使其在未来几年保持竞争力的收入。</p>
</div>

全球电动汽车市场呈现 K 型发展，而美国则被远远落在后面