<p>华盛顿，5 月 20 日（路透社）- 联邦储备官员对伊朗战争引发的通胀担忧在上个月加剧，越来越多的人对可能加息持开放态度，这表明即将上任的主席凯文·沃什将接手一支日益鹰派的中央银行团队。</p>
<p>根据周三发布的会议纪要，大多数美联储政策制定者在 4 月 28 日至 29 日的会议上认为，如果通胀持续高于中央银行 2% 的目标，&#34;某种政策收紧可能会变得合适&#34;。</p>
<p>会议纪要指出，&#34;为了应对这种可能性，许多与会者表示，他们更希望在会后声明中删除暗示委员会未来利率决策可能方向的宽松偏向的语言。&#34;</p>
<p>此外，政策制定者&#34;普遍判断&#34;他们需要比之前预期更长时间保持政策利率稳定，会议纪要指出，&#34;绝大多数&#34;与会者注意到通胀可能需要更长时间才能回到 2% 的目标，即使他们&#34;普遍预期&#34;近期劳动力市场条件将保持稳定。</p>
<p>事实上，尽管几位政策制定者确实认为一旦通胀缓解，加息将是合适的，但这一人数少于 3 月份会议上认为如此的&#34;许多&#34;人。</p>
<p>&#34;加息再次被提上日程，&#34;TradeStation 的全球市场策略主管大卫·拉塞尔表示。&#34;随着凯文·沃什的加入，委员会变得更加鹰派。&#34;</p>
<p>这次美联储政策会议的分歧是几十年来最为明显的，增加了关于两派官员的关键细节，他们在等待沃什的到来——一派对伊朗战争引发的通胀感到担忧，并对未来降息的任何讨论持谨慎态度，另一派则仍倾向于降低借贷成本。</p>
<p>政策制定者鹰派倾向进一步加剧的主要原因再次是——由美国和以色列主导的对伊朗的战争加剧了通胀压力。这场近三个月的冲突推动了能源价格上涨，并加剧了越来越多商品和服务的成本压力。</p>
<p>会议纪要显示，4 月份的会议——由杰罗姆·鲍威尔主持的最后一次会议——是连续第二次有更多政策制定者认为如果通胀保持在目标之上，加息可能是合适的，超过了上一次政策会议的情况。</p>
<p>沃什表示他喜欢&#34;良好的家庭争吵&#34;，并且自己也提出了支持降低利率的论点，他将在白宫的仪式上宣誓就任美联储主席，特朗普总统主持了这一仪式，特朗普明确要求大幅降息。然而，会议纪要显示，推动更宽松政策的论点将面临多么艰难的挑战，尽管特朗普最近已淡化了这些期望。</p>
<p>联邦公开市场委员会，即美联储的利率决策机构，上个月将短期政策利率维持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的区间不变，但有四位政策制定者表示异议，这是自 1992 年以来最多的。</p>
<p>此外，异议意见各不相同。一位官员——特朗普的另一位任命者、将于周五离开美联储以为沃什腾出席位的州长斯蒂芬·米兰，再次对降息表示异议。与此同时，另外三位则对政策声明中继续使用暗示美联储仍可能降息的语言表示异议。</p>
<p>这三位——以及会议后几周的其他人——指出，通胀远高于美联储 2% 的目标，并且由于美国和以色列主导的对伊朗的战争加剧了价格压力，预计在短期内将进一步偏离这一目标。这场冲突使油价上涨超过 50%，最新的消费者和批发通胀数据显示，价格压力已开始超出能源领域。</p>
<p>他们还指出，失业率稳定以及两个月强于预期的就业增长表明，劳动力市场仍然具有韧性，不需要降低利率来支撑。</p>
<p>在鲍威尔担任主席的八年后，沃什将在 6 月 16 日至 17 日召开他的第一次美联储会议，预计不会有利率变化，当然也不会降息。</p>
<p>事实上，美国和全球债券市场越来越反映出一种信念，即美联储和其他主要中央银行将在不久的将来提高利率，以应对战争引发的通胀。2 年期美国国债收益率，作为美联储政策预期的代理指标，从 2 月 27 日美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭前的 3.40% 以下，飙升至周二超过 4.10% 的 15 个月高点。</p>
<p>与此同时，路透社周二的一项调查显示，经济学家对今年降息的预期发生了重大转变，预计到 12 月降息的比例已降至不足 50%，而一个月前这一比例为三分之二。大约一半的受访者认为今年利率不会变化，还有少数受访者预计至少会加息一次。</p>
<p>（丹·伯恩斯报道；千寿编辑）</p>

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<p>美联储官员因伊朗战争加剧的通胀担忧，越来越倾向于加息。四月份会议的纪要显示，大多数官员认为如果通胀持续高于 2% 的目标，可能需要收紧政策。美联储的短期政策利率保持不变，但政策制定者之间的分歧表明，立场正向更鹰派转变。即将上任的主席凯文·沃什在通胀压力上升的情况下，将面临倡导降低利率的挑战</p>

<p>WASHINGTON, May 20 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials' concerns about inflation being stoked by the Iran war intensified last month, with a growing number open to a possible rate hike, in a sign that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will inherit an increasingly hawkish crew of central bankers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，5 月 20 日（路透社）- 联邦储备官员对伊朗战争引发的通胀担忧在上个月加剧，越来越多的人对可能加息持开放态度，这表明即将上任的主席凯文·沃什将接手一支日益鹰派的中央银行团队。</p>
</div><p>A majority of Fed policymakers at their April 28-29 meeting felt &#34;some policy firming would likely become appropriate&#34; if inflation stays persistently above the central bank's 2% target, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据周三发布的会议纪要，大多数美联储政策制定者在 4 月 28 日至 29 日的会议上认为，如果通胀持续高于中央银行 2% 的目标，&#34;某种政策收紧可能会变得合适&#34;。</p>
</div><p>&#34;To address this possibility, many participants indicated that they would have preferred removing the language from the postmeeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee's future interest rate decisions,&#34; minutes of the meeting said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会议纪要指出，&#34;为了应对这种可能性，许多与会者表示，他们更希望在会后声明中删除暗示委员会未来利率决策可能方向的宽松偏向的语言。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Moreover policymakers &#34;generally judged&#34; they would need to keep the policy rate steady for longer than previously anticipated, the minutes said, with a &#34;vast majority&#34; noting an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to their 2% goal even as they &#34;generally expected&#34; stable labor market conditions in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，政策制定者&#34;普遍判断&#34;他们需要比之前预期更长时间保持政策利率稳定，会议纪要指出，&#34;绝大多数&#34;与会者注意到通胀可能需要更长时间才能回到 2% 的目标，即使他们&#34;普遍预期&#34;近期劳动力市场条件将保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, while several policymakers did feel a rate cut would be appropriate once inflation eases, that was fewer than the &#34;many&#34; who felt that way at the March meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，尽管几位政策制定者确实认为一旦通胀缓解，加息将是合适的，但这一人数少于 3 月份会议上认为如此的&#34;许多&#34;人。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Rate hikes are back on the table,&#34; said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. &#34;The committee is getting more hawkish as Kevin Warsh joins.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;加息再次被提上日程，&#34;TradeStation 的全球市场策略主管大卫·拉塞尔表示。&#34;随着凯文·沃什的加入，委员会变得更加鹰派。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The readout of the most divided Fed policy meeting in a generation added critical detail about shifts in two blocs of Fed officials waiting to greet Warsh - a growing one wary of the inflation arising from the war in Iran and of any talk of future rate cuts, and a diminishing one still leaning toward lowering borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次美联储政策会议的分歧是几十年来最为明显的，增加了关于两派官员的关键细节，他们在等待沃什的到来——一派对伊朗战争引发的通胀感到担忧，并对未来降息的任何讨论持谨慎态度，另一派则仍倾向于降低借贷成本。</p>
</div><p>The main culprit for the further hawkish drift among policymakers was - again - the inflation pressures that have been aggravated by the U.S.-Israel-led war against Iran. The nearly three-month-old conflict has driven up energy prices and fanned cost pressures across a widening array of goods and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者鹰派倾向进一步加剧的主要原因再次是——由美国和以色列主导的对伊朗的战争加剧了通胀压力。这场近三个月的冲突推动了能源价格上涨，并加剧了越来越多商品和服务的成本压力。</p>
</div><p>The minutes showed that April's meeting - the last chaired by Jerome Powell - was the second in a row to feature more policymakers feeling a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation were to remain above target than at the immediately prior policy gathering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会议纪要显示，4 月份的会议——由杰罗姆·鲍威尔主持的最后一次会议——是连续第二次有更多政策制定者认为如果通胀保持在目标之上，加息可能是合适的，超过了上一次政策会议的情况。</p>
</div><p>Warsh, who says he relishes a &#34;good family fight&#34; and has himself laid out arguments in favor of lower interest rates, will be sworn in as Fed chair at a White House ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump, who appointed him and who has been explicit in his demands for deep rate cuts. The minutes showed just how hard it will be to prevail in an argument for easier policy, though Trump himself has recently downplayed those expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什表示他喜欢&#34;良好的家庭争吵&#34;，并且自己也提出了支持降低利率的论点，他将在白宫的仪式上宣誓就任美联储主席，特朗普总统主持了这一仪式，特朗普明确要求大幅降息。然而，会议纪要显示，推动更宽松政策的论点将面临多么艰难的挑战，尽管特朗普最近已淡化了这些期望。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting body, left its short-term policy rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% last month, but four policymakers dissented, the most since 1992.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联邦公开市场委员会，即美联储的利率决策机构，上个月将短期政策利率维持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的区间不变，但有四位政策制定者表示异议，这是自 1992 年以来最多的。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the dissents were mixed. One official - Governor Stephen Miran, another Trump appointee who will leave the Fed on Friday to vacate a seat for Warsh - dissented in favor, again, of a rate cut. Three others, meanwhile, dissented over the continued use of language in the accompanying policy statement that suggests the Fed still may cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，异议意见各不相同。一位官员——特朗普的另一位任命者、将于周五离开美联储以为沃什腾出席位的州长斯蒂芬·米兰，再次对降息表示异议。与此同时，另外三位则对政策声明中继续使用暗示美联储仍可能降息的语言表示异议。</p>
</div><p>Those three - and others in the weeks since the meeting - point to inflation that is running well above the Fed's 2% target and likely to move further away from it in the near term thanks to widening price pressures aggravated by the U.S-Israeli-led war on Iran. The conflict has sent oil prices up by more than 50%, and the latest consumer and wholesale inflation data show price pressures have begun widening beyond the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三位——以及会议后几周的其他人——指出，通胀远高于美联储 2% 的目标，并且由于美国和以色列主导的对伊朗的战争加剧了价格压力，预计在短期内将进一步偏离这一目标。这场冲突使油价上涨超过 50%，最新的消费者和批发通胀数据显示，价格压力已开始超出能源领域。</p>
</div><p>They also note a steady jobless rate and two months of stronger-than-expected job creation indicate the employment market remains resilient and is not in need of lower interest rates to prop it up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们还指出，失业率稳定以及两个月强于预期的就业增长表明，劳动力市场仍然具有韧性，不需要降低利率来支撑。</p>
</div><p>After eight years with Powell at the helm, Warsh will convene his first Fed meeting on June 16-17 with no prospect seen for a change in rates, and certainly not a cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鲍威尔担任主席的八年后，沃什将在 6 月 16 日至 17 日召开他的第一次美联储会议，预计不会有利率变化，当然也不会降息。</p>
</div><p>U.S. and global bond markets, in fact, increasingly reflect a conviction that the Fed and other top central banks will be lifting interest rates before long to lean against war-induced inflation. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, a proxy for Fed policy expectations, has shot from just below 3.40% on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran, to a 15-month high above 4.10% on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，美国和全球债券市场越来越反映出一种信念，即美联储和其他主要中央银行将在不久的将来提高利率，以应对战争引发的通胀。2 年期美国国债收益率，作为美联储政策预期的代理指标，从 2 月 27 日美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭前的 3.40% 以下，飙升至周二超过 4.10% 的 15 个月高点。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, a Reuters poll on Tuesday showed a hefty shift among economists away from previously solid expectations for rate cuts this year, with fewer than 50% now projecting a reduction by December, down from two-thirds just a month earlier. Roughly half see no change in rates this year, and a handful of respondents penciled in at least one rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，路透社周二的一项调查显示，经济学家对今年降息的预期发生了重大转变，预计到 12 月降息的比例已降至不足 50%，而一个月前这一比例为三分之二。大约一半的受访者认为今年利率不会变化，还有少数受访者预计至少会加息一次。</p>
</div><p>(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（丹·伯恩斯报道；千寿编辑）</p>
</div>

Fed minutes show more policymakers open to a rate hike

- 美联储官员对伊朗战争引发的通胀表示担忧，倾向于加息。  
- 会议纪要显示，大多数与会者认为需收紧政策应对高通胀。  
- 短期政策利率维持在 3.50% 至 3.75%，但观点分歧明显。

美联储纪要显示更多政策制定者倾向于支持加息