<h2>伊朗，FOMC 会议纪要要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>积极的伊朗新闻继续提升风险偏好，但交易者希望在做出强烈承诺之前看到具体行动。</li>
<li>四月的 FOMC 会议纪要显示，美联储正在考虑放弃宽松偏向，这可能是今年晚些时候加息的前兆。</li>
<li>澳元/美元正在反弹至其五个月区间的中间位置，交易者在等待突破的催化剂。</li>
</ul>
<p>在一天的平静开始后，市场波动性在下午有所上升，主要受到（你猜对了）对伊朗潜在和平协议的希望以及最近 FOMC 会议纪要的推动。</p>
<p>在伊朗方面，特朗普总统宣称美国正处于与伊朗和平谈判的 “最后阶段”，而伊朗外长表示该国正在认真以善意追求谈判，重点是结束战争。实际上，我们之前已经看到过无数次这样的头条新闻，但没有真正的进展，但市场仍然对这些头条反应积极，油价在我们发稿时下跌了 6%，回到 100 美元附近。</p>
<p>与此同时，四月的 FOMC 会议纪要显示出普遍的鹰派倾向。官员们维持利率不变，但会议纪要显示，辩论已从下一次降息的时机转向政策是否足够紧缩。“许多” 参与者支持放弃声明中的宽松偏向，而 “多数” 人认为如果通胀保持过高，进一步加息是可能的。</p>
<p>根据彭博社的情绪评分，会议纪要是自 2023 年 7 月以来最鹰派的：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="937" height="521" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：彭博社</em></p>
<p>对于 FOMC 成员来说，主要担忧是关税、能源价格和其他成本压力可能使通胀高于目标，而劳动力市场仍然足够强劲，给美联储留出等待的空间。这种组合使委员会对去通胀的信心减弱。对于市场来说，关键的结论是近期降息的希望看起来更难以证明，而六月份的会议可能会带来更明确的双向信息：如果通胀数据未能改善，则维持更长时间，甚至再次收紧。</p>
<p>会议纪要应该在一定程度上支持收益率和美元，但市场目前仍更关注伊朗的发展。交易者还应注意，全球市值最大的公司 Nvidia（NVDA）将在市场收盘后发布财报，可能会影响更广泛的风险偏好，即使对于那些不直接交易股票的人。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>澳元技术分析：AUD/USD 4 小时图</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1585" height="800" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：Tradingview, StoneX</em></p>
<p>从 AUD/USD 的 4 小时图来看，汇率今天强劲反弹，受益于风险偏好的普遍恢复。该货币对已完成四月到五月反弹的 38.2% 回撤，接近 0.7100，现在正在恢复到其五周区间的中间位置，介于 0.7100 和 0.7270 之间。</p>
<p>从技术角度来看，只要 AUD/USD 保持在这个常见区间内，中性偏向是合适的。如果伊朗的敌对行动恢复，可能会对该货币对施加压力，并导致更深的回撤，向 0.7050 或 0.7000 逼近，如果 0.7100 支撑被打破，而达成和平的共同协议（更重要的是，霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放）可能会将 AUD/USD 推回到接近 0.7270 的三年高点的阻力位。</p>
<p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
<p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市场更新视频</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>并确保关注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>

<p>四月份的 FOMC 会议纪要显示出向鹰派立场的转变，讨论了放弃宽松偏向和在通胀保持高位时可能加息的可能性。关于伊朗和平谈判的积极消息提升了市场的风险偏好，推动 AUD/USD 反弹，正在其五个月的区间内恢复。交易者保持谨慎，等待 FOMC 货币政策和伊朗局势的具体进展</p>

<h2>Iran, FOMC Minutes Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊朗，FOMC 会议纪要要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Positive Iran headlines continue to boost risk appetite, but traders will want to see concrete action before committing too strongly.</li>
<li>The April FOMC minutes show that the Fed is considering dropping its easing bias, a potential precursor to raising interest rates later this year.</li>
<li>AUD/USD is bouncing back to the middle of its 5-month range as traders wait for a catalyst for a breakout</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>积极的伊朗新闻继续提升风险偏好，但交易者希望在做出强烈承诺之前看到具体行动。</li>
<li>四月的 FOMC 会议纪要显示，美联储正在考虑放弃宽松偏向，这可能是今年晚些时候加息的前兆。</li>
<li>澳元/美元正在反弹至其五个月区间的中间位置，交易者在等待突破的催化剂。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>After a quiet start to the day, market volatility has picked up in the afternoon, driven by (you guessed it) hopes of potential peace deal in Iran and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一天的平静开始后，市场波动性在下午有所上升，主要受到（你猜对了）对伊朗潜在和平协议的希望以及最近 FOMC 会议纪要的推动。</p>
</div><p>On the Iran front, President Trump proclaimed that the US was in “final stages” of peace talks with Iran, and Iran’s Foreign Minister said that the country was pursuing the path of negotiations with seriousness in good faith and the “focus is on ending the war.” Realistically, we’ve seen this type of headline countless times before with no real progress, but markets continue to react positively to the headlines, with oil prices falling by -6% back toward $100 as we go to press.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗方面，特朗普总统宣称美国正处于与伊朗和平谈判的 “最后阶段”，而伊朗外长表示该国正在认真以善意追求谈判，重点是结束战争。实际上，我们之前已经看到过无数次这样的头条新闻，但没有真正的进展，但市场仍然对这些头条反应积极，油价在我们发稿时下跌了 6%，回到 100 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the April FOMC minutes showed a generally hawkish lean. Officials held rates steady, but the minutes show that the debate has moved away from timing the next cut and toward whether policy is restrictive enough. “Many” participants backed dropping the statement’s easing bias, and “a majority” saw further rate increases as possible if inflation stays too high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，四月的 FOMC 会议纪要显示出普遍的鹰派倾向。官员们维持利率不变，但会议纪要显示，辩论已从下一次降息的时机转向政策是否足够紧缩。“许多” 参与者支持放弃声明中的宽松偏向，而 “多数” 人认为如果通胀保持过高，进一步加息是可能的。</p>
</div><p>According to Bloomberg’s sentiment score, the minutes were the most hawkish they’ve been since July 2023:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社的情绪评分，会议纪要是自 2023 年 7 月以来最鹰派的：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：彭博社</em></p>
</div><p>For FOMC members, the main worry was that tariffs, energy prices and other cost pressures could keep inflation above target, while the labor market remains firm enough to give the Fed room to wait. That mix leaves the Committee sounding less confident that disinflation is on track. For markets, the key takeaway is that near-term cut hopes look harder to justify, and the June meeting may bring a more explicitly two-sided message: hold for longer, or even tighten again, if the inflation data fail to improve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 FOMC 成员来说，主要担忧是关税、能源价格和其他成本压力可能使通胀高于目标，而劳动力市场仍然足够强劲，给美联储留出等待的空间。这种组合使委员会对去通胀的信心减弱。对于市场来说，关键的结论是近期降息的希望看起来更难以证明，而六月份的会议可能会带来更明确的双向信息：如果通胀数据未能改善，则维持更长时间，甚至再次收紧。</p>
</div><p>The minutes should support yields and the dollar at the margin, but the market remains more attuned to developments in Iran for now. Traders should also note that Nvidia (NVDA), the largest company on the planet by market capitalization, reports earnings after the market close and could impact broader risk appetite, even for those who are not trading stocks directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会议纪要应该在一定程度上支持收益率和美元，但市场目前仍更关注伊朗的发展。交易者还应注意，全球市值最大的公司 Nvidia（NVDA）将在市场收盘后发布财报，可能会影响更广泛的风险偏好，即使对于那些不直接交易股票的人。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-AUD-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>Australian Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳元技术分析：AUD/USD 4 小时图</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260520152212-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Tradingview, StoneX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Tradingview, StoneX</em></p>
</div><p>Looking at the 4-hour chart of the AUD/USD, rates are bouncing back strongly today, benefitting from the general recovery in risk appetite. The pair has completed a 38.2% retracement of the April-May rally near 0.7100 and is now recovering to the middle of its 5-week range between 0.7100 and 0.7270.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 AUD/USD 的 4 小时图来看，汇率今天强劲反弹，受益于风险偏好的普遍恢复。该货币对已完成四月到五月反弹的 38.2% 回撤，接近 0.7100，现在正在恢复到其五周区间的中间位置，介于 0.7100 和 0.7270 之间。</p>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, a neutral bias is appropriate as long as AUD/USD remains within that well-trodden range. A resumption of hostilities in Iran could weigh on the pair and lead to a deeper retracement toward 0.7050 or 0.7000 if 0.7100 support breaks, whereas a mutually-agreed path to peace (and more importantly, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz) would likely drive AUD/USD back toward resistance at the 3-year high near 0.7270.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，只要 AUD/USD 保持在这个常见区间内，中性偏向是合适的。如果伊朗的敌对行动恢复，可能会对该货币对施加压力，并导致更深的回撤，向 0.7050 或 0.7000 逼近，如果 0.7100 支撑被打破，而达成和平的共同协议（更重要的是，霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放）可能会将 AUD/USD 推回到接近 0.7270 的三年高点的阻力位。</p>
</div><p><em>-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
</div><p><em>Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos</em> <em>on YouTube</em> <em>and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市场更新视频</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>并确保关注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
</div>

FOMC 纪要转向鹰派，澳元/美元从区间低点反弹