<p>2026 年 5 月 20 日下午 4:18（东部夏令时间）-- 多伦多证券交易所周三收复了前两天失去的 500 多点，CIBC 表示 “使加拿大央行进入紧缩政策的门槛高于市场预期”，因为人们担心更高的利率将提高许多公司的借贷成本，并在经济需要它们来刺激增长时使消费者和企业处于边缘。</p>
<p>S&amp;P/TSX 综合指数上涨 420.59 点，涨幅为 1.25%，收于 34,161.82 点。大多数行业上涨，基础金属上涨 2.5%，受益于黄金价格的上涨。相比之下，电池金属指数下跌 4.9%，能源板块下跌 2.3%。</p>
<p>关于利率的前景，CIBC 资本市场经济学家 Avery Shenfeld 和 Andrew Grantham 发布了一份题为《谁真正害怕通胀，加拿大央行还是美联储？》的报告。</p>
<p>CIBC 的两位经济学家指出，飙升的油价以及通过现已关闭的霍尔木兹海峡运输的铝、氦气和其他供应品的价格上涨，使市场关注全球增长的下行风险，以及更直接的通胀上行风险。这导致市场将之前对美联储今年降息的预期替换为加息的可能性，并预计在年底前加拿大将加息约两次，每次 25 个基点。但他们也问道，这两家央行中哪一家现在应该更害怕通胀，当前政策变化的相对定价是否合理？</p>
<p>CIBC 目前的利率预测显示，两家央行将在较长一段时间内维持利率不变，尽管该行已在 12 月为美联储预留了一个 25 个基点的降息，但这取决于战争的早期结束。CIBC 的两位经济学家指出，加拿大央行的表述表明，在下半年油价压力减轻的情况下，它不会考虑在任何情况下加息，前提是霍尔木兹海峡的运输恢复。</p>
<p>但由于这一地缘政治结果并非确定，投资者将考虑一种情景，即更持久的冲突使原油价格在今年年底前保持在三位数。Shenfeld 和 Grantham 表示，他们的分析表明，在这种情况下，美国面临更广泛的通胀螺旋风险，而加拿大则不太可能比美联储更早、更激进地加息。</p>
<p>CIBC 表示，从更远的角度来看，情况可能会有所不同。如果原油价格大幅上涨，可能对加拿大经济是积极的，而不是消极的，因为这可能会刺激能源部门的资本支出。或者在 CIBC 的基本情况下，如果油价回到每桶 75 美元，该行预计到 2027 年底，加拿大央行可能会将利率提高到 2.75%，前提是贸易谈判的有利结果减少了对出口和商业资本支出的拖累，并开始降低失业率。但至少在今年，加拿大央行进入紧缩政策的门槛高于市场预期，至少相对于美联储的情况而言，CIBC 补充道。</p>
<p>BMO 资本市场同时指出，在本周消费者价格指数发布的同时，4 月份的新住房价格指数显示，5 月份的住房成本进一步放缓。仅房屋部分在 4 月份下降了 0.6%，是自 2009 年以来的最大降幅。按此计算，价格仍比去年低 3.5%。该行还指出，随着市场继续消化大量新库存和待上线项目，前景并不乐观。</p>
<p>另外，BMO 指出，租金增长也在继续放缓，尽管进展比其在实际情况中看到的要慢，因为消费者价格指数反映了转向更便宜租约等方面的延迟。在这里，该行表示，只要移民控制使需求增长远低于供应，向下的压力将持续存在。“总体而言，住房仍然是经济面临能源和其他资源进一步挑战时的关键通缩压力来源，” 它补充道。</p>
<p>在商品方面，周三下午黄金价格上涨，因为国债收益率和美元下跌。6 月份交割的黄金上涨 25.90 美元，至每盎司 4,537.10 美元。</p>
<p>但西德克萨斯中质原油在美国总统特朗普表示与伊朗的谈判已进入最后阶段，并威胁如果无法达成协议将恢复攻击后，价格大幅下跌。7 月份交割的 WTI 原油收盘下跌 5.89 美元，报每桶 98.26 美元，而 7 月份布伦特原油最后报下跌 6.18 美元，至 105.10 美元。</p>
<p>MT Newswires 不提供投资建议。未经授权的复制是严格禁止的。</p>

纽蒙特矿业

山东黄金

中金黄金

<p>多伦多证券交易所首次在三天内收盘上涨，涨幅为 420.59 点，收于 34,161.82 点。CIBC 指出，尽管存在通胀担忧，加拿大央行可能不会像市场预期的那样尽快加息。同时，房价下跌，导致通货紧缩压力加大。黄金价格上涨，而在地缘政治紧张局势下，原油价格大幅下跌。CIBC 的分析表明，对加息持谨慎态度，潜在的加息取决于全球经济状况</p>

<p>04:18 PM EDT, 05/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday recovered much of the 500-plus points lost over the prior two sessions as CIBC said &#34;the bar to get the Bank of Canada into a tightening stance is higher than the market thinks&#34;, amid fears higher rates would lift borrowing costs for many companies and sideline them and consumers when they are needed to help spur the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 5 月 20 日下午 4:18（东部夏令时间）-- 多伦多证券交易所周三收复了前两天失去的 500 多点，CIBC 表示 “使加拿大央行进入紧缩政策的门槛高于市场预期”，因为人们担心更高的利率将提高许多公司的借贷成本，并在经济需要它们来刺激增长时使消费者和企业处于边缘。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P/TSX Composite Index closed up 420.59 points, or 1.25%. to 34,161.82. with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up 2.5%, helped by elevated gold. In contrast, the Battery Metals Index was down 4.9% and Energy was 2.3% lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P/TSX 综合指数上涨 420.59 点，涨幅为 1.25%，收于 34,161.82 点。大多数行业上涨，基础金属上涨 2.5%，受益于黄金价格的上涨。相比之下，电池金属指数下跌 4.9%，能源板块下跌 2.3%。</p>
</div><p>On the outlook for rates, CIBC Capital Markets economists Avery Shenfeld and Andrew Grantham published a note titled 'Who really fears inflation, the Bank of Canada or the Fed?'.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于利率的前景，CIBC 资本市场经济学家 Avery Shenfeld 和 Andrew Grantham 发布了一份题为《谁真正害怕通胀，加拿大央行还是美联储？》的报告。</p>
</div><p>Soaring oil prices, alongside price hikes for aluminum, helium and other supplies shipped through the now shuttered Strait of Hormuz, have markets looking at downside risks to global growth, and more immediately, upside risks to inflation, the CIBC pair noted. That's seen markets replace earlier expectations for a Fed rate cut this year with the possibility of a hike, and price in roughly two 25 basis point increases in Canada before year end, they said. But, they also asked, which of those central banks should be in greater fear of inflation these days, and does current relative pricing for policy changes make sense?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 的两位经济学家指出，飙升的油价以及通过现已关闭的霍尔木兹海峡运输的铝、氦气和其他供应品的价格上涨，使市场关注全球增长的下行风险，以及更直接的通胀上行风险。这导致市场将之前对美联储今年降息的预期替换为加息的可能性，并预计在年底前加拿大将加息约两次，每次 25 个基点。但他们也问道，这两家央行中哪一家现在应该更害怕通胀，当前政策变化的相对定价是否合理？</p>
</div><p>CIBC's current rate forecast has both central banks on hold for an extended period, although the bank has penciled in a quarter point rate cut for the Fed in December that is conditional on an early end to the war. The Bank of Canada's own language, suggests it will not be looking to hike rates this year in any scenario that sees the pressure from oil prices abating in the second half of the year on a resumption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the CIBC duo noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 目前的利率预测显示，两家央行将在较长一段时间内维持利率不变，尽管该行已在 12 月为美联储预留了一个 25 个基点的降息，但这取决于战争的早期结束。CIBC 的两位经济学家指出，加拿大央行的表述表明，在下半年油价压力减轻的情况下，它不会考虑在任何情况下加息，前提是霍尔木兹海峡的运输恢复。</p>
</div><p>But with that geopolitical outcome by no means certain, investors will put some weight on a scenario in which a more protracted conflict sees triple-digit crude prices extending from here to the end of the year, Shenfeld and Grantham said. Their analysis suggest the United States would be more at risk of a broader inflationary spiral than Canada in that scenario, making it unlikely the BoC would be hiking first and more aggressively than the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由于这一地缘政治结果并非确定，投资者将考虑一种情景，即更持久的冲突使原油价格在今年年底前保持在三位数。Shenfeld 和 Grantham 表示，他们的分析表明，在这种情况下，美国面临更广泛的通胀螺旋风险，而加拿大则不太可能比美联储更早、更激进地加息。</p>
</div><p>Further afield, things could look a bit different, according to CIBC. A very extended rise in crude prices might be more of a positive for the Canadian economy than a negative, if it triggered an acceleration in energy-sector capital spending. Or, in CIBC's base case, with a return to US$75/bbl oil prices, the bank could see the BoC nudging interest rates up to 2.75% by the end of 2027 if a favorable outcome in trade talks reduces the drag on exports and business capital spending and begins to lower unemployment. But for this year at least, the bar to get the Bank of Canada into a tightening stance is higher than the market thinks, at least relative to what the case would be for the Fed, CIBC added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 表示，从更远的角度来看，情况可能会有所不同。如果原油价格大幅上涨，可能对加拿大经济是积极的，而不是消极的，因为这可能会刺激能源部门的资本支出。或者在 CIBC 的基本情况下，如果油价回到每桶 75 美元，该行预计到 2027 年底，加拿大央行可能会将利率提高到 2.75%，前提是贸易谈判的有利结果减少了对出口和商业资本支出的拖累，并开始降低失业率。但至少在今年，加拿大央行进入紧缩政策的门槛高于市场预期，至少相对于美联储的情况而言，CIBC 补充道。</p>
</div><p>BMO Capital Markets noted at the same time as the consumer price index was released this week, April's New Housing Price Index pointed to further deceleration in shelter costs for May. The house-only portion, which feeds directly into homeowners' replacement costs, fell 0.6% in April alone, the largest drop since 2009. By this measure, prices remain 3.5% below year-ago levels. And, the bank also noted, there's little relief on the horizon as the market continues to digest a glut of new inventory and a backlog of projects coming online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BMO 资本市场同时指出，在本周消费者价格指数发布的同时，4 月份的新住房价格指数显示，5 月份的住房成本进一步放缓。仅房屋部分在 4 月份下降了 0.6%，是自 2009 年以来的最大降幅。按此计算，价格仍比去年低 3.5%。该行还指出，随着市场继续消化大量新库存和待上线项目，前景并不乐观。</p>
</div><p>Separately, BMO noted, rent growth also continues to decelerate, although progress is slower than what it has seen on the ground as the CPI reflects delays in things like switching to cheaper leases. Here, the bank said, it looks like the downside pressure will remain as long as immigration controls keep demand growing much slower than supply. &#34;Altogether, housing continues to be a key source of disinflationary pressure as the economy faces further challenges in energy and other resources,&#34; it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外，BMO 指出，租金增长也在继续放缓，尽管进展比其在实际情况中看到的要慢，因为消费者价格指数反映了转向更便宜租约等方面的延迟。在这里，该行表示，只要移民控制使需求增长远低于供应，向下的压力将持续存在。“总体而言，住房仍然是经济面临能源和其他资源进一步挑战时的关键通缩压力来源，” 它补充道。</p>
</div><p>Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Wednesday as treasury yields and the dollar fell. Gold for June delivery was upUS $25.90 to US$4,537.10 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品方面，周三下午黄金价格上涨，因为国债收益率和美元下跌。6 月份交割的黄金上涨 25.90 美元，至每盎司 4,537.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower after as U.S. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages while threatening to renew attacks if a deal cannot be reached. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $5.89 to settle at US$98.26 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$6.18 to US$105.10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但西德克萨斯中质原油在美国总统特朗普表示与伊朗的谈判已进入最后阶段，并威胁如果无法达成协议将恢复攻击后，价格大幅下跌。7 月份交割的 WTI 原油收盘下跌 5.89 美元，报每桶 98.26 美元，而 7 月份布伦特原油最后报下跌 6.18 美元，至 105.10 美元。</p>
</div><p>MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MT Newswires 不提供投资建议。未经授权的复制是严格禁止的。</p>
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TSX 收盘：该指数在连续三次交易中首次收高