<ul>
<li>超大型油轮离开霍尔木兹海峡，压低原油和美国两年期国债收益率</li>
<li>美元/日元的相关性显示前端利差仍是主要驱动因素</li>
<li>市场关注 Koeda 的讲话，预计 2026 年将加息两次</li>
<li>在 159 上方的失败突破使美元/日元面临更深的回调风险</li>
</ul>
<h2>海湾新闻影响油价和收益率</h2>
<p>美元/日元仍然与油价和相对央行预期紧密相关，近期海湾地区的发展、BOJ 董事会成员 Koeda 的讲话以及即将发布的美国经济数据将继续主导该货币对的走势。</p>
<p>周三，原油、利率和美元/日元之间的联系再次显现，布伦特原油价格下跌约 6%，美国两年期国债收益率下降约八个基点，轻微施压该货币对。这一波动发生在多艘超大型油轮成功离开霍尔木兹海峡的报道之后，其中包括一艘载有科威特原油、前往韩国的油轮，该油轮在海湾滞留超过两个月，激发了人们对该地区实际供应流动可能逐渐改善的希望。</p>
<p>另有报道称，美国与伊朗的协议可能接近达成，这也可能加剧了这一波动，尽管交易员们在最近几周反复听到这一故事的不同版本，但迄今为止没有证据表明这将导致海峡的实质性重新开放。</p>
<h2>收益率差异仍然是关键</h2>
<p>这一反应进一步强化了美元/日元与短期收益率差异之间的紧密联系，特别是美国与日本之间的差异。相关性分析显示，该货币对与美国 - 日本两年期利差之间的关系在过去五天和 20 个交易日内分别保持在 0.92 和 0.73，均略强于与美国两年期国债收益率在同一时期的相关性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>这突显了相对央行预期对该货币对的重要性。尽管海湾地区的发展通过对原油价格和美联储定价的影响仍然重要，但日本央行方面的动态同样重要，这使得周四晚些时候 BOJ 董事会成员 Koeda 的讲话更加受到关注。</p>
<h2>Koeda 面临鹰派考验</h2>
<p>Koeda 被视为日本央行董事会中较为鹰派的成员之一，曾主张日本的实际利率仍然极低，并普遍支持进一步逐步的政策正常化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：彭博社</p>
<p>在她的讲话之前，隔夜指数掉期暗示 6 月加息 25 个基点的概率约为 78%，而到 7 月完全定价，第二次加息基本上在年末前已被定价。</p>
<p>对于日本央行来说，问题在于尽管政策制定者继续收紧政策，但其传达的信息往往显得谨慎和鸽派，限制了加息预期可持续建立的程度。为了从国内利率的角度加强日元，Koeda 可能需要传达更鹰派的信息，而不是市场习惯听到的谨慎语气。</p>
<h2>Warsh 可能最为重要</h2>
<p>除了 Koeda，未来 24 小时内的美国数据日历繁忙，但没有许多顶级发布。每周失业救济申请和初步 PMI 数据将吸引最多关注，因为它们可能影响美联储定价和前端国债收益率，尤其是期货目前暗示今年约有 13 个基点的收紧和到明年中期的 26 个基点。</p>
<p>虽然日本的 CPI 数据将在周五发布，但由于东京的通胀数据大约在三周前发布，因此现在很少产生重大惊喜。</p>
<p>实际上，进入周末最重要的事件可能来自华盛顿，而不是数据日历，市场将密切关注即将上任的美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 的讲话，特朗普将在周五的宣誓仪式上正式介绍他。</p>
<h2>159 的拒绝改变了基调</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>美元/日元在原油价格和美国前端收益率下降后，突破了过去两周的上升趋势，之前在 159 阻力位上方的突破未能成功。如果这一突破持续，可能表明该货币对正在进入一个新趋势。</p>
<p>目前，50 日移动平均线是需要立即关注的关键水平，若跌破将增加回调至 157.92 的风险，这是上周的突破区间。157 和 156 是更低的显著水平，后者尤其值得关注，因为在月初的干预相关流动中吸收了强劲的卖盘。</p>
<p>在上方，159.00 仍然重要，为交易者提供了两个附近的水平，以根据近期价格走势构建交易策略。如果该货币对显著突破 159.00，160 和 160.73 将成为关键关注水平。</p>
<p>振荡器发出的信息在方向偏好上大致中性，但考虑到该货币对在其他支持上涨的环境中未能维持在 159 上方的探测，近期的偏好是卖出反弹而不是买入回调。</p>

西方石油

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

德银原油基金 - PowerShares

<p>美元/日元仍受油价和中央银行预期的影响，特别是日本银行董事会成员小田即将发表的讲话。近期布伦特原油和美国国债收益率的下降使得美元/日元变得脆弱，难以突破 159 的阻力位。市场关注小田的鹰派立场以及即将上任的美联储主席沃什的言论，交易员们预计可能会加息。需要关注的关键水平是 157.92 的支撑位和 159.00 的阻力位，短期内倾向于在反弹时卖出</p>

<ul>
<li>Supertankers exit Hormuz, hammering crude and US two-year yields lower</li>
<li>USD/JPY correlations show front-end spreads remain the key driver</li>
<li>Koeda speech in focus with two BOJ hikes priced in 2026</li>
<li>Failed breaks above 159 leave USD/JPY vulnerable to deeper retracement</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>超大型油轮离开霍尔木兹海峡，压低原油和美国两年期国债收益率</li>
<li>美元/日元的相关性显示前端利差仍是主要驱动因素</li>
<li>市场关注 Koeda 的讲话，预计 2026 年将加息两次</li>
<li>在 159 上方的失败突破使美元/日元面临更深的回调风险</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Gulf headlines hit oil and yields</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>海湾新闻影响油价和收益率</h2>
</div><p>USD/JPY remains heavily tied to oil prices and relative central bank expectations, leaving developments in the Gulf, a speech from BOJ board member Koeda, and upcoming US economic data set to remain in the driving seat for the pair in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元仍然与油价和相对央行预期紧密相关，近期海湾地区的发展、BOJ 董事会成员 Koeda 的讲话以及即将发布的美国经济数据将继续主导该货币对的走势。</p>
</div><p>The linkages between crude, rates and USD/JPY were on full display again on Wednesday as Brent crude fell around 6% and US two-year Treasury yields dropped roughly eight basis points, weighing modestly on the pair. The moves followed reports that several supertankers had successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, including a vessel carrying Kuwaiti crude bound for South Korea that had been stranded in the Gulf for more than two months, fuelling hopes that physical supply flows from the region may gradually start to improve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，原油、利率和美元/日元之间的联系再次显现，布伦特原油价格下跌约 6%，美国两年期国债收益率下降约八个基点，轻微施压该货币对。这一波动发生在多艘超大型油轮成功离开霍尔木兹海峡的报道之后，其中包括一艘载有科威特原油、前往韩国的油轮，该油轮在海湾滞留超过两个月，激发了人们对该地区实际供应流动可能逐渐改善的希望。</p>
</div><p>Separate reports that another US-Iran deal may be close likely added to the move, although traders have heard variations of that storyline repeatedly in recent weeks with little evidence so far that it will lead to a meaningful reopening of the strait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另有报道称，美国与伊朗的协议可能接近达成，这也可能加剧了这一波动，尽管交易员们在最近几周反复听到这一故事的不同版本，但迄今为止没有证据表明这将导致海峡的实质性重新开放。</p>
</div><h2>Yield differentials remain king</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益率差异仍然是关键</h2>
</div><p>The reaction reinforced how heavily USD/JPY remains tied to short-end yield differentials, particularly between the US and Japan. Correlation analysis shows the relationship between the pair and US-Japan two-year spreads remained extremely strong over the past five and 20 trading days at 0.92 and 0.73 respectively, both slightly stronger than the correlation with outright US two-year Treasury yields over the same periods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反应进一步强化了美元/日元与短期收益率差异之间的紧密联系，特别是美国与日本之间的差异。相关性分析显示，该货币对与美国 - 日本两年期利差之间的关系在过去五天和 20 个交易日内分别保持在 0.92 和 0.73，均略强于与美国两年期国债收益率在同一时期的相关性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094125-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>That underlines the importance of relative central bank expectations for the pair. While developments in the Gulf continue to matter through their influence on crude prices and Fed pricing, the BOJ side of the equation also remains important, putting additional emphasis on remarks from BOJ board member Junko Koeda later Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这突显了相对央行预期对该货币对的重要性。尽管海湾地区的发展通过对原油价格和美联储定价的影响仍然重要，但日本央行方面的动态同样重要，这使得周四晚些时候 BOJ 董事会成员 Koeda 的讲话更加受到关注。</p>
</div><h2>Koeda faces hawkish test</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Koeda 面临鹰派考验</h2>
</div><p>Koeda is viewed as one of the more hawkish members on the BOJ board, having previously argued Japan’s real interest rates remain extremely low while sounding broadly supportive of further gradual policy normalisation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Koeda 被视为日本央行董事会中较为鹰派的成员之一，曾主张日本的实际利率仍然极低，并普遍支持进一步逐步的政策正常化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094143-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：彭博社</p>
</div><p>Ahead of her speech, overnight index swaps imply around a 78% chance of a 25 basis point BOJ rate hike in June with a full move priced by July, while a second increase is essentially priced by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在她的讲话之前，隔夜指数掉期暗示 6 月加息 25 个基点的概率约为 78%，而到 7 月完全定价，第二次加息基本上在年末前已被定价。</p>
</div><p>The issue for the BOJ is that while policymakers continue to tighten policy, its messaging has often come across as cautious and dovish, limiting the extent to which tightening expectations have been able to build sustainably. To strengthen the yen from a domestic rates perspective, Koeda will likely need to deliver a more hawkish message rather than the cautious tone markets have become accustomed to hearing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于日本央行来说，问题在于尽管政策制定者继续收紧政策，但其传达的信息往往显得谨慎和鸽派，限制了加息预期可持续建立的程度。为了从国内利率的角度加强日元，Koeda 可能需要传达更鹰派的信息，而不是市场习惯听到的谨慎语气。</p>
</div><h2>Warsh may matter most</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Warsh 可能最为重要</h2>
</div><p>Beyond Koeda, the US data calendar over the next 24 hours is busy without featuring many top-tier releases. Weekly jobless claims and flash PMI data will attract the most attention given their potential influence on Fed pricing and front-end Treasury yields, especially with futures currently implying around 13 basis points of tightening this year and 26 basis points by the middle of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 Koeda，未来 24 小时内的美国数据日历繁忙，但没有许多顶级发布。每周失业救济申请和初步 PMI 数据将吸引最多关注，因为它们可能影响美联储定价和前端国债收益率，尤其是期货目前暗示今年约有 13 个基点的收紧和到明年中期的 26 个基点。</p>
</div><p>While Japanese CPI data is due Friday, it rarely generates major surprises nowadays given Tokyo inflation data arrives roughly three weeks earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然日本的 CPI 数据将在周五发布，但由于东京的通胀数据大约在三周前发布，因此现在很少产生重大惊喜。</p>
</div><p>Realistically, the most important event heading into the weekend may come from Washington rather than the data calendar, with markets set to closely watch remarks from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh when Donald Trump formally unveils him during Friday’s swearing-in ceremony.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，进入周末最重要的事件可能来自华盛顿，而不是数据日历，市场将密切关注即将上任的美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 的讲话，特朗普将在周五的宣誓仪式上正式介绍他。</p>
</div><h2>159 rejections shift tone</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>159 的拒绝改变了基调</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260521094119-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>USD/JPY has broken the uptrend it had been sitting in over the past fortnight following the decline in crude prices and front-end US yields, having struggled to break above 159 resistance in the days beforehand. Should the break stick, it suggests the pair may be entering a new trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元在原油价格和美国前端收益率下降后，突破了过去两周的上升趋势，之前在 159 阻力位上方的突破未能成功。如果这一突破持续，可能表明该货币对正在进入一个新趋势。</p>
</div><p>Right now, the 50DMA is the key level to monitor immediately beneath where the pair now trades, with a move below increasing the risk of a retracement back towards 157.92, the breakout zone from last week. 157 and 156 are notable levels further down, the latter especially given it absorbed strong offers during suspected intervention-related flows around the turn of the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，50 日移动平均线是需要立即关注的关键水平，若跌破将增加回调至 157.92 的风险，这是上周的突破区间。157 和 156 是更低的显著水平，后者尤其值得关注，因为在月初的干预相关流动中吸收了强劲的卖盘。</p>
</div><p>On the topside, 159.00 remains important, providing traders with two nearby levels to construct setups around depending on how near-term price action evolves. If the pair were to push meaningfully above 159.00, 160 and 160.73 become the key levels to watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上方，159.00 仍然重要，为交易者提供了两个附近的水平，以根据近期价格走势构建交易策略。如果该货币对显著突破 159.00，160 和 160.73 将成为关键关注水平。</p>
</div><p>The message from the oscillators is broadly neutral when it comes to directional bias, but given the pair struggled to hold probes above 159 in an environment that was otherwise supportive for upside, the preference is to sell rallies rather than buy dips in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>振荡器发出的信息在方向偏好上大致中性，但考虑到该货币对在其他支持上涨的环境中未能维持在 159 上方的探测，近期的偏好是卖出反弹而不是买入回调。</p>
</div>

USD/JPY Outlook: Hormuz hopes hit crude as traders eye Koeda, Warsh

Forex

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

2 倍做空彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

美元/日元前景：霍尔木兹的希望影响原油，交易员关注小枝和沃什