<p>花旗发布报告，对黄金短期趋势保持谨慎态度，因为霍尔木兹海峡的持续关闭和能源价格飙升导致投资者购买减少。市场担心风险规避情绪引发卖压，这与黄金的历史先例一致。在强劲的投资需求和人民币走强的支持下，中国的黄金进口支出仍保持在每年约 3000 亿美元的历史高位，帮助黄金价格维持在历史标准的高位。然而，这并未改变投资需求下降的关键负面转变，特别是在印度。该银行推测，中国以外的零售市场可能正经历类似趋势。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡长期僵局带来的通胀压力加剧了市场对美联储将加息的预期，从而通过更高的实际利率和强势美元对黄金价格施加压力。花旗对黄金的短期看法保持谨慎，设定零至三个月的黄金价格目标为每盎司 4300 美元。如果出现重大风险规避事件，黄金价格可能会远低于这一水平。</p>
<p>花旗表示，只要霍尔木兹海峡部分或大部分关闭，至少在市场完全消化这一因素之前，将对黄金保持谨慎态度。然而，该银行最终寻求在更长的时间范围内进行买入。当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势最终缓解时，花旗的新基本情景现在指向 7 月，当前对黄金的宏观逆风，如高实际利率和强势美元，预计将减弱，黄金价格可能会触底反弹。</p>
<p>在霍尔木兹海峡更长期关闭和能源价格持续高企（非基本情景）的情况下，市场担忧可能会从 “通胀无衰退” 转向 “滞涨”，这是任何中央银行面临的最坏情况，因为高频美国经济数据仍然普遍强劲。在滞涨时期，股票和债券的回报历史上通常为负，而贵金属则提供了强劲的正回报。世界黄金协会最新的 2026 年第一季度数据显示，黄金条和金币的需求强劲，珠宝需求韧性十足，中央银行需求回升。同时，全球最大的两个黄金消费市场中国和印度由于当地政策变化和货币走势相反，需求趋势出现分歧。</p>

花旗

山东黄金

<p>花旗对短期黄金趋势持谨慎态度，原因是通胀压力和霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致投资者购买减少。尽管中国的黄金进口仍然高企，但印度需求下降引发担忧。该银行预计美联储可能加息，这将对黄金价格产生负面影响。花旗设定未来三个月黄金价格目标为每盎司 4,300 美元，并预计在风险规避时期可能出现更低价格。从长期来看，他们预计一旦宏观逆风减弱，黄金将会反弹</p>

<p>Citi issued a report maintaining a cautious stance on the short-term trend of gold, as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and surging energy prices have led to reduced investor buying. The market is concerned about risk-off sentiment triggering selling pressure, which is consistent with historical precedents for gold. Supported by resilient investment demand and a stronger RMB, Chinas spending on gold imports has remained near a historical high of around USD300 billion per year, helping gold prices stay at elevated levels by historical standards. However, this has not altered the key negative shift of declining investment demand, particularly in India. The bank speculates that retail markets outside China may be experiencing a similar trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗发布报告，对黄金短期趋势保持谨慎态度，因为霍尔木兹海峡的持续关闭和能源价格飙升导致投资者购买减少。市场担心风险规避情绪引发卖压，这与黄金的历史先例一致。在强劲的投资需求和人民币走强的支持下，中国的黄金进口支出仍保持在每年约 3000 亿美元的历史高位，帮助黄金价格维持在历史标准的高位。然而，这并未改变投资需求下降的关键负面转变，特别是在印度。该银行推测，中国以外的零售市场可能正经历类似趋势。</p>
</div><p>Inflation pressure stemming from the prolonged stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz has fueled market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, thereby exerting pressure on gold prices through higher real interest rates and a strong USD. Citi maintains a cautious view on gold in the short term and sets a zero- to three-month gold price target of USD4,300 per ounce. In the event of a major risk-off episode, gold prices could fall well below this level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡长期僵局带来的通胀压力加剧了市场对美联储将加息的预期，从而通过更高的实际利率和强势美元对黄金价格施加压力。花旗对黄金的短期看法保持谨慎，设定零至三个月的黄金价格目标为每盎司 4300 美元。如果出现重大风险规避事件，黄金价格可能会远低于这一水平。</p>
</div><p>Citi stated that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially or largely closed, it will stay cautious on gold, at least until the market fully digests this factor. Nevertheless, the bank ultimately seeks to buy over a longer horizon. When tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eventually ease with Citis new base case now pointing to July current macro headwinds for gold, such as high real interest rates and a strong USD, are expected to moderate, and gold prices are likely to bottom out and rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗表示，只要霍尔木兹海峡部分或大部分关闭，至少在市场完全消化这一因素之前，将对黄金保持谨慎态度。然而，该银行最终寻求在更长的时间范围内进行买入。当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势最终缓解时，花旗的新基本情景现在指向 7 月，当前对黄金的宏观逆风，如高实际利率和强势美元，预计将减弱，黄金价格可能会触底反弹。</p>
</div><p>Under a scenario of a more prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and persistently higher energy prices (a non-base case), market concerns may shift from &#34;inflation without recession&#34; as high-frequency US economic data remain broadly resilient to &#34;stagflation,&#34; the worst-case scenario for any central bank. Historically, during stagflationary periods, returns on equities and bonds have been negative, while precious metals have delivered strongly positive returns. The World Gold Councils latest 1Q26 data showed robust demand for gold bars and coins, resilient jewelry demand, and a rebound in central bank demand. Meanwhile, the worlds two largest gold consumption markets China and India have seen divergent demand trends due to differing local policy changes and opposite currency movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在霍尔木兹海峡更长期关闭和能源价格持续高企（非基本情景）的情况下，市场担忧可能会从 “通胀无衰退” 转向 “滞涨”，这是任何中央银行面临的最坏情况，因为高频美国经济数据仍然普遍强劲。在滞涨时期，股票和债券的回报历史上通常为负，而贵金属则提供了强劲的正回报。世界黄金协会最新的 2026 年第一季度数据显示，黄金条和金币的需求强劲，珠宝需求韧性十足，中央银行需求回升。同时，全球最大的两个黄金消费市场中国和印度由于当地政策变化和货币走势相反，需求趋势出现分歧。</p>
</div>

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花旗银行表示，通胀压力提高了市场对加息的预期；同时对短期黄金走势保持谨慎态度