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<p>周四，黄金价格变化不大，投资者在美国与伊朗达成协议的前景与持续的通胀担忧以及长期高利率的背景下进行权衡。</p>
<p>现货黄金在上午晚些时候的交易中报每盎司 4,534.69 美元，较前一交易日下跌 0.2%。</p>
<p>这一走势是在周三黄金上涨超过 1% 之后出现的，当时金价创下两周以来的最大单日涨幅。</p>
<p>纽约商业交易所 6 月交割的美国黄金期货最近报每盎司 4,536.70 美元，较本交易日下跌 8.10 美元，或 0.2%。</p>
<p>这种平淡的交易反映出市场处于两种对立力量之间。</p>
<p>对华盛顿与德黑兰可能达成协议的乐观情绪缓解了部分对油价驱动的通胀担忧，而不断上升的国债收益率则继续对黄金等无收益资产施加压力。</p>
<h2>伊朗谈判缓解通胀担忧</h2>
<p>在特朗普总统表示与伊朗的谈判已进入最后阶段后，投资者情绪有所改善，市场对达成协议的希望提高，可能会缓解该地区的紧张局势。</p>
<p>局势缓和可能会减轻对油价的压力，自伊朗冲突在 2 月底爆发以来，油价一直是通胀预期的主要驱动因素。</p>
<p>较高的油价往往会加剧更广泛的价格压力，增强紧缩货币政策的必要性，降低黄金的吸引力。</p>
<p>OANDA 的高级市场分析师 Kelvin Wong 表示，关于谈判的最新评论有助于改善黄金的市场情绪。</p>
<p>“在特朗普表示双方已进入和平协议的最后阶段后，市场对黄金的情绪转为积极，” Wong 说。</p>
<p>尽管如此，市场仍然保持谨慎。</p>
<p>自冲突开始以来，黄金价格已下跌超过 14%，因为能源价格上涨加剧了通胀风险，并强化了利率可能长期维持在高位的预期。</p>
<h2>国债收益率对黄金施加压力</h2>
<p>10 年期国债收益率在上午晚些时候的交易中上升至 2.418%，高于周三纽约交易结束时的 2.364%。</p>
<p>较高的长期收益率增加了持有黄金的机会成本，因为黄金不支付利息。</p>
<p>这种动态限制了黄金延续涨幅的能力，即使地缘政治风险继续支撑避险需求。</p>
<p>Wong 表示，自 3 月初以来美国国债收益率的中期上升可能会在短期内限制黄金的任何大幅上涨。</p>
<p>市场也在逐渐提高对美联储进一步收紧政策的可能性评估。</p>
<p>根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，交易员预计 12 月加息 25 个基点的概率为 39%。</p>
<p>美联储 4 月会议的纪要显示，大多数政策制定者认为，如果通胀持续高于中央银行 2% 的目标，或者条件发展到需要采取额外行动的程度，进一步收紧政策是合理的。</p>
<h2>白银、铂金和钯金下跌</h2>
<p>其他贵金属的交易价格也有所下跌。</p>
<p>7 月白银期货在 Comex 上报每盎司 75.40 美元，较前一交易日下跌 0.8%。</p>
<p>7 月铂金期货下跌 0.7%，报每盎司 1,936.10 美元，而 8 月钯金期货下跌 0.4%，报每盎司 1,365.12 美元。</p>
<h2>黄金前景依然脆弱</h2>
<p>在短期内，黄金预计将继续承压，因为投资者关注收益率的方向、美联储的政策信号以及美国与伊朗谈判的最新进展。</p>
<p>OANDA 预计黄金的阻力位在 4,645 美元附近，支撑位在 4,456 美元。</p>
<p>Wong 表示，黄金难以找到更坚实的支撑，因为它夹在对潜在伊朗协议的乐观情绪与紧缩利率环境的拖累之间。</p>
<p>作为一种无收益资产，黄金通常在利率下降时表现更好。</p>
<p>随着市场仍在为美联储进一步收紧政策的可能性做准备，任何持续的反弹可能需要更明确的证据表明通胀风险正在减轻，国债收益率正在稳定。</p>
<p>这篇文章最初出现在 Invezz 上，标题为 “黄金变化不大，交易者权衡伊朗谈判与美联储利率风险”。</p>

紫金矿业

纽蒙特矿业

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

<p>黄金价格保持稳定，投资者考虑到美国与伊朗之间潜在的协议，同时面临持续的通胀担忧和高利率。现货黄金报每盎司 4,534.69 美元，下跌 0.2%，此前一天上涨了 1%。市场受到对伊朗谈判的乐观情绪和国债收益率上升的影响，后者增加了持有黄金的机会成本。其他贵金属也出现下跌，银、铂金和钯金价格均有所下降。黄金的前景依然脆弱，正处于地缘政治乐观情绪与限制性利率环境之间的挣扎</p>

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<p>Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed the prospect of a US-Iran agreement against persistent inflation concerns and a higher-for-longer interest rate backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，黄金价格变化不大，投资者在美国与伊朗达成协议的前景与持续的通胀担忧以及长期高利率的背景下进行权衡。</p>
</div><p>Spot gold traded at $4,534.69 an ounce in late morning action, down 0.2% from the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货黄金在上午晚些时候的交易中报每盎司 4,534.69 美元，较前一交易日下跌 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>The move followed a gain of more than 1% on Wednesday, when bullion posted its strongest daily advance in two weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一走势是在周三黄金上涨超过 1% 之后出现的，当时金价创下两周以来的最大单日涨幅。</p>
</div><p>US gold futures for June delivery were recently at $4,536.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $8.10, or 0.2%, for the session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约商业交易所 6 月交割的美国黄金期货最近报每盎司 4,536.70 美元，较本交易日下跌 8.10 美元，或 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>The muted trading reflected a market caught between two opposing forces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种平淡的交易反映出市场处于两种对立力量之间。</p>
</div><p>Optimism around a possible agreement between Washington and Tehran helped ease some concerns over oil-driven inflation, while rising Treasury yields continued to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对华盛顿与德黑兰可能达成协议的乐观情绪缓解了部分对油价驱动的通胀担忧，而不断上升的国债收益率则继续对黄金等无收益资产施加压力。</p>
</div><h2>Iran talks temper inflation fears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊朗谈判缓解通胀担忧</h2>
</div><p>Investor sentiment improved after President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were in the final stages, raising hopes that a deal could reduce tensions in the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普总统表示与伊朗的谈判已进入最后阶段后，投资者情绪有所改善，市场对达成协议的希望提高，可能会缓解该地区的紧张局势。</p>
</div><p>A de-escalation could ease pressure on oil prices, which have been a key driver of inflation expectations since the Iran conflict began in late February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>局势缓和可能会减轻对油价的压力，自伊朗冲突在 2 月底爆发以来，油价一直是通胀预期的主要驱动因素。</p>
</div><p>Higher oil prices tend to feed into broader price pressures, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy and reducing gold’s appeal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的油价往往会加剧更广泛的价格压力，增强紧缩货币政策的必要性，降低黄金的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said the latest comments around the negotiations had helped sentiment toward gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OANDA 的高级市场分析师 Kelvin Wong 表示，关于谈判的最新评论有助于改善黄金的市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>“After Trump’s remarks that both sides are at the final stages of the peace agreement, sentiment turned positive on gold,” Wong said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在特朗普表示双方已进入和平协议的最后阶段后，市场对黄金的情绪转为积极，” Wong 说。</p>
</div><p>Still, the market remained cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，市场仍然保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Since the start of the conflict, gold has fallen more than 14% as higher energy prices fuelled inflation risks and reinforced expectations that interest rates could stay elevated for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自冲突开始以来，黄金价格已下跌超过 14%，因为能源价格上涨加剧了通胀风险，并强化了利率可能长期维持在高位的预期。</p>
</div><h2>Treasury yields keep pressure on bullion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>国债收益率对黄金施加压力</h2>
</div><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.418% in late morning trading, up from 2.364% in late New York trading on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债收益率在上午晚些时候的交易中上升至 2.418%，高于周三纽约交易结束时的 2.364%。</p>
</div><p>Higher long-term yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not pay interest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的长期收益率增加了持有黄金的机会成本，因为黄金不支付利息。</p>
</div><p>That dynamic has limited bullion’s ability to extend gains, even as geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态限制了黄金延续涨幅的能力，即使地缘政治风险继续支撑避险需求。</p>
</div><p>Wong said the medium-term rise in US Treasury yields since early March was likely to cap any sharp upside in gold in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wong 表示，自 3 月初以来美国国债收益率的中期上升可能会在短期内限制黄金的任何大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>Markets are also assigning a growing probability to further Federal Reserve tightening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场也在逐渐提高对美联储进一步收紧政策的可能性评估。</p>
</div><p>According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 39% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，交易员预计 12 月加息 25 个基点的概率为 39%。</p>
</div><p>Minutes from the Fed’s April meeting showed that a majority of policymakers saw some further policy firming as likely to be warranted if inflation remained above the central bank’s 2% target or if conditions evolved in a way that required additional action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储 4 月会议的纪要显示，大多数政策制定者认为，如果通胀持续高于中央银行 2% 的目标，或者条件发展到需要采取额外行动的程度，进一步收紧政策是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>Silver, platinum and palladium decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>白银、铂金和钯金下跌</h2>
</div><p>Other precious metals also traded lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他贵金属的交易价格也有所下跌。</p>
</div><p>July silver futures were at $75.40 an ounce on Comex, down 0.8% from the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月白银期货在 Comex 上报每盎司 75.40 美元，较前一交易日下跌 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>July platinum futures fell 0.7% to $1,936.10 an ounce, while August palladium futures slipped 0.4% to $1,365.12 an ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月铂金期货下跌 0.7%，报每盎司 1,936.10 美元，而 8 月钯金期货下跌 0.4%，报每盎司 1,365.12 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Gold outlook remains fragile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金前景依然脆弱</h2>
</div><p>In the near term, gold is expected to remain under pressure as investors track the direction of yields, the Fed’s policy signals and updates on the US-Iran talks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期内，黄金预计将继续承压，因为投资者关注收益率的方向、美联储的政策信号以及美国与伊朗谈判的最新进展。</p>
</div><p>OANDA sees resistance for gold near $4,645, with support around $4,456.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OANDA 预计黄金的阻力位在 4,645 美元附近，支撑位在 4,456 美元。</p>
</div><p>Wong said bullion was struggling to find a firmer footing because it was caught between optimism over a potential Iran deal and the drag from a restrictive rate environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wong 表示，黄金难以找到更坚实的支撑，因为它夹在对潜在伊朗协议的乐观情绪与紧缩利率环境的拖累之间。</p>
</div><p>As a non-yielding asset, gold typically performs better when interest rates are falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一种无收益资产，黄金通常在利率下降时表现更好。</p>
</div><p>With markets still preparing for the possibility of further Fed tightening, any sustained rally may require clearer evidence that inflation risks are easing and Treasury yields are stabilising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市场仍在为美联储进一步收紧政策的可能性做准备，任何持续的反弹可能需要更明确的证据表明通胀风险正在减轻，国债收益率正在稳定。</p>
</div><p>The post Gold little changed as traders weigh Iran talks, Fed rate risks appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章最初出现在 Invezz 上，标题为 “黄金变化不大，交易者权衡伊朗谈判与美联储利率风险”。</p>
</div>

Gold little changed as traders weigh Iran talks, Fed rate risks

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Kinross Gold

中金黄金

山东黄金

易方达黄金矿-R

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

2 倍做多小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

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2 倍做空金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

黄金 ETF - iShares

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黄金 ETF - SPDR

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

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黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

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实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

2 倍做空小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

芝加哥商品交易所

黄金价格几乎没有变化，交易员正在权衡伊朗谈判和美联储利率风险