<p>[孟买] 伊朗战争给新兴亚洲市场带来了压力，推动一些货币和债券收益率向曾被认为不太可能的水平靠拢。</p>
<p>随着冲突的持续，一些分析师正在描绘更极端的看跌情景。这包括印度卢比贬值至每美元 100 印尼盾，印尼卢比滑落至 18000，菲律宾比索贬值至 65，因为高能源价格推动通货膨胀并对依赖进口的经济造成压力。</p>
<p>债券市场也感受到了压力。印度的基准收益率可能会测试 2022 年最后一次出现的高点，而菲律宾货币市场协会的负责人表示，收益率可能会上升至 8%，这是多年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>自战争于 2 月底爆发以来，亚洲经历了超过 40% 的原油价格飙升。印度、印尼和菲律宾感受到的痛苦最为明显，这些国家依赖外国资本来弥补经常账户赤字。美国国债收益率的上升进一步削弱了新兴市场资产的吸引力，迫使中央银行收紧政策，即使冲突带来的经济影响加深。</p>
<p>印尼已经采取措施捍卫卢比，中央银行在 5 月 20 日（星期三）意外宣布加息幅度超出市场预期，并承诺加大货币干预力度。</p>
<p>“如果能源价格继续上涨，进口成本相对于出口价格的恶化将继续对净石油进口国的货币施加压力，” Gamma 资产管理公司的全球宏观投资组合经理 Rajeev De Mello 表示。他还表示，较高的原油价格可能会伤害债券，因为它们会引发通货膨胀或扩大财政赤字，政府通过燃料补贴吸收部分冲击。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察，直接送达您的邮箱。</p>
<p>卢比、印尼卢比和比索是表现最差的新兴市场货币，自战争开始以来贬值幅度在 4.5% 到 6.5% 之间。</p>
<p>阿伯丁投资和大都会人寿投资管理公司等机构认为，卢比贬值至每美元 100 的可能性存在。星展银行已将其预测区间从 90-95 修订为 95-100。彭博社汇编的共识估计显示，到年底卢比将达到 94.75，而一年期美元 - 卢比远期合约在周三首次突破 100。</p>
<p>在东南亚，Gamma 的 De Mello 表示，如果油价继续上涨，比索可能会贬值至 65 以上。汇丰银行现在预计比索年底将达到 60.8，而之前的预测为 59.8，同时预计印尼卢比将达到 17,400，早前的估计为 17,300。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/92562a22cf0065787b30af7b5ebc89d39a925b8f4e374f1d5c2d1333040b5863/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/92562a22cf0065787b30af7b5ebc89d39a925b8f4e374f1d5c2d1333040b5863/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>战争动荡削弱亚洲储备，菲律宾和印度受影响最大</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/03ec3c01ae1d8fd0412bc5367d38380064cf87dd4914642623dd085364824b6a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/03ec3c01ae1d8fd0412bc5367d38380064cf87dd4914642623dd085364824b6a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>亚洲货币因人工智能热情和美伊和平希望而反弹</h3>
<p>BNY Mellon 的策略师 Wee Khoon Chong 在 5 月 13 日的报告中写道，卢比在短期内可能会滑落至 18000。彭博社的共识估计显示，比索年底将达到 60.3，印尼卢比将达到 17,100。</p>
<p>随着印尼的压力加大，普拉博沃·苏比安托总统在周三宣布计划加强对商品出口的国家控制。他估计该国每年通过 “泄漏” 损失高达 1500 亿美元，例如出口商未能申报货物的全部价值。</p>
<p>这些损失已经蔓延到该地区的本币债券，这些债券在战争爆发前曾受到全球投资者的青睐。彭博社的一个七个新兴亚洲经济体的平均 10 年期收益率指数自冲突开始以来上升了超过 120 个基点，为 2023 年 11 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>在周三的每周拍卖中，印度 364 天国债的收益率上涨幅度为近四年来最大。</p>
<h2>利率展望</h2>
<p>投资者开始预计印度将在中央银行于 6 月 5 日宣布下次利率决定时，跟随印尼和菲律宾收紧政策。根据渣打银行的数据显示，印度掉期目前预计未来一年将加息约 125 个基点。</p>
<p>在菲律宾，利率掉期预计在三个月内加息约 70 个基点，因为通货膨胀担忧加剧。4 月份消费者价格以三年来最快的速度上涨，增强了市场对中央银行 6 月会议上加息半个百分点的预期。</p>
<p>“我们绝对还没有看到最糟糕的情况，” 位于马尼拉的 eManagement 商业与市场服务公司的董事总经理 Jonathan Ravelas 表示。他预计如果冲突加剧，10 年期收益率将达到两位数，且比索将在未来六到十二个月贬值至 62-63，未来两年贬值至 65。</p>
<p>一些分析师认为，该地区比 1997 年亚洲金融危机时更能抵御冲击。根据野村证券的说法，今天的经济体拥有更大的外汇储备和更低的美元计价短期债务水平。</p>
<p>“尽管这些是非常具有挑战性的时期，但我们认为大多数亚洲经济体能够应对，” 野村证券亚太（日本除外）首席经济学家 Sonal Varma 表示。</p>
<p>然而，全球资金已从该地区撤回。自战争开始以来，印尼本币债券市场流出超过 5 亿美元，而印度则流出 12 亿美元，进一步加大了对货币和收益率的压力。彭博社</p>
<p>解码亚洲通讯：您的新全球秩序下导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯。直接送达您的邮箱。免费。</p>

EMXC

Vanguard富时新兴市场指数ETF

印度 MSCI ETF - iShares

印尼 MSCI ETF - iShares

iShares MSCI新兴市场ETF

AVEM

菲律宾指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>正在进行的伊朗战争对新兴亚洲市场施加了重大压力，印度卢比、印尼盾和菲律宾比索等货币面临极端的看跌情景。分析师预测，卢比可能会贬值至每美元 100，而债券收益率预计将大幅上升。高能源价格正在推动通货膨胀，并给依赖进口的经济体带来压力，这促使中央银行考虑收紧政策。尽管面临挑战，一些分析师认为，与过去的危机相比，亚洲经济体在抵御冲击方面的定位更为稳健</p>

<p>[MUMBAI] The Iran war is piling pressure on emerging Asian markets, pushing some currencies and bond yields towards levels once considered unlikely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[孟买] 伊朗战争给新兴亚洲市场带来了压力，推动一些货币和债券收益率向曾被认为不太可能的水平靠拢。</p>
</div><p>As the conflict drags on, some analysts are mapping out more extreme bearish scenarios. That includes India’s rupee weakening to 100 per US dollar, the Indonesian rupiah sliding to 18,000, and the Philippine peso depreciating to 65 as high energy prices fuel inflation and weigh on import-dependent economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着冲突的持续，一些分析师正在描绘更极端的看跌情景。这包括印度卢比贬值至每美元 100 印尼盾，印尼卢比滑落至 18000，菲律宾比索贬值至 65，因为高能源价格推动通货膨胀并对依赖进口的经济造成压力。</p>
</div><p>Bond markets are also feeling the strain. Benchmark yields in India may test peaks last seen in 2022, while the head of the money market association in the Philippines says yields may climb towards 8 per cent, a multi-year high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券市场也感受到了压力。印度的基准收益率可能会测试 2022 年最后一次出现的高点，而菲律宾货币市场协会的负责人表示，收益率可能会上升至 8%，这是多年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Asia is reeling from a more than 40 per cent surge in crude prices since the war broke out in late February. The pain is being felt most acutely in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, which rely on foreign capital to fund current-account deficits. Rising US Treasury yields have further dent the appeal of emerging-market assets, pressuring central banks to tighten policy even as the economic fallout from the conflict deepens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争于 2 月底爆发以来，亚洲经历了超过 40% 的原油价格飙升。印度、印尼和菲律宾感受到的痛苦最为明显，这些国家依赖外国资本来弥补经常账户赤字。美国国债收益率的上升进一步削弱了新兴市场资产的吸引力，迫使中央银行收紧政策，即使冲突带来的经济影响加深。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia has already moved to defend the rupiah, with the central bank surprising markets on Wednesday (May 20) with a larger-than-expected rate hike and a pledge to step up currency intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼已经采取措施捍卫卢比，中央银行在 5 月 20 日（星期三）意外宣布加息幅度超出市场预期，并承诺加大货币干预力度。</p>
</div><p>“The deterioration in import costs relative to export prices will continue to weigh on the currencies of net oil importers” if energy prices continue to rise, said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gamma Asset Management. Higher crude prices may also hurt bonds, as they stoke inflation or widen fiscal deficits where authorities absorb part of the shock through fuel subsidies, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果能源价格继续上涨，进口成本相对于出口价格的恶化将继续对净石油进口国的货币施加压力，” Gamma 资产管理公司的全球宏观投资组合经理 Rajeev De Mello 表示。他还表示，较高的原油价格可能会伤害债券，因为它们会引发通货膨胀或扩大财政赤字，政府通过燃料补贴吸收部分冲击。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
</div><p>Get the insights delivered to your inbox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察，直接送达您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>The rupiah, rupee and the peso have been among the worst-performing emerging-market currencies, falling between 4.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent since the war began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卢比、印尼卢比和比索是表现最差的新兴市场货币，自战争开始以来贬值幅度在 4.5% 到 6.5% 之间。</p>
</div><p>Aberdeen Investments and MetLife Investment Management are among those that see the possibility of the rupee weakening to 100 per US dollar. DBS has revised its forecast range to 95-100 from 90-95. The consensus estimate compiled by Bloomberg shows 94.75 by year-end, while the one-year US dollar-rupee forward breached 100 for the first time on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿伯丁投资和大都会人寿投资管理公司等机构认为，卢比贬值至每美元 100 的可能性存在。星展银行已将其预测区间从 90-95 修订为 95-100。彭博社汇编的共识估计显示，到年底卢比将达到 94.75，而一年期美元 - 卢比远期合约在周三首次突破 100。</p>
</div><p>In South-east Asia, Gamma’s De Mello said the peso could weaken beyond 65 if oil prices continue to climb. HSBC now expects the peso to end the year at 60.8, compared with its previous forecast of 59.8, while projecting the rupiah to hit 17,400 from an earlier estimate of 17,300.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在东南亚，Gamma 的 De Mello 表示，如果油价继续上涨，比索可能会贬值至 65 以上。汇丰银行现在预计比索年底将达到 60.8，而之前的预测为 59.8，同时预计印尼卢比将达到 17,400，早前的估计为 17,300。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/92562a22cf0065787b30af7b5ebc89d39a925b8f4e374f1d5c2d1333040b5863/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/92562a22cf0065787b30af7b5ebc89d39a925b8f4e374f1d5c2d1333040b5863?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>War turmoil saps Asian reserves with Philippines, India hit most</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>战争动荡削弱亚洲储备，菲律宾和印度受影响最大</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/03ec3c01ae1d8fd0412bc5367d38380064cf87dd4914642623dd085364824b6a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/03ec3c01ae1d8fd0412bc5367d38380064cf87dd4914642623dd085364824b6a?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Asian currencies rally on AI enthusiasm, US-Iran peace hopes</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>亚洲货币因人工智能热情和美伊和平希望而反弹</h3>
</div><p>BNY Mellon strategist Wee Khoon Chong wrote in a May 13 note that the rupiah could slide to 18,000 in the near term. Bloomberg consensus estimates see the peso ending the year at 60.3 and the rupiah at 17,100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNY Mellon 的策略师 Wee Khoon Chong 在 5 月 13 日的报告中写道，卢比在短期内可能会滑落至 18000。彭博社的共识估计显示，比索年底将达到 60.3，印尼卢比将达到 17,100。</p>
</div><p>As strains on Indonesia mounted, President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday announced plans to tighten state control over commodity exports. He estimated the country loses as much as US$150 billion annually through “leaks” such as under-invoicing, where exporters fail to declare the full value of shipments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着印尼的压力加大，普拉博沃·苏比安托总统在周三宣布计划加强对商品出口的国家控制。他估计该国每年通过 “泄漏” 损失高达 1500 亿美元，例如出口商未能申报货物的全部价值。</p>
</div><p>The losses have spread to local currency bonds in the region, which had been favoured by global investors before the war. A Bloomberg index of average 10-year yields across seven emerging Asia economies has risen over 120 basis points from the start of the conflict, its highest since November 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些损失已经蔓延到该地区的本币债券，这些债券在战争爆发前曾受到全球投资者的青睐。彭博社的一个七个新兴亚洲经济体的平均 10 年期收益率指数自冲突开始以来上升了超过 120 个基点，为 2023 年 11 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>At a weekly auction on Wednesday, yields on India’s 364-day treasury bill jumped the most in about four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周三的每周拍卖中，印度 364 天国债的收益率上涨幅度为近四年来最大。</p>
</div><h2>Rate outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率展望</h2>
</div><p>Investors are starting to expect India to follow Indonesia and the Philippines in tightening policy when the central bank announces its next rate decision on Jun 5. Indian swaps are now pricing in about 125 basis points of hikes over the next year, according to Standard Chartered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者开始预计印度将在中央银行于 6 月 5 日宣布下次利率决定时，跟随印尼和菲律宾收紧政策。根据渣打银行的数据显示，印度掉期目前预计未来一年将加息约 125 个基点。</p>
</div><p>In the Philippines, interest-rate swaps are pricing in about 70 basis points of hikes over a three-month period as inflation concerns mount. Consumer prices rose in April at the fastest pace in three years, strengthening expectations for a half-point increase at the central bank’s June meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在菲律宾，利率掉期预计在三个月内加息约 70 个基点，因为通货膨胀担忧加剧。4 月份消费者价格以三年来最快的速度上涨，增强了市场对中央银行 6 月会议上加息半个百分点的预期。</p>
</div><p>“We definitely haven’t seen the worst,” said Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Services in Manila. He sees 10-year yields hitting double digits if the conflict worsens, and the peso weakening to 62-63 over the next six to 12 months, and to 65 over two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们绝对还没有看到最糟糕的情况，” 位于马尼拉的 eManagement 商业与市场服务公司的董事总经理 Jonathan Ravelas 表示。他预计如果冲突加剧，10 年期收益率将达到两位数，且比索将在未来六到十二个月贬值至 62-63，未来两年贬值至 65。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts argue the region is better positioned to withstand shocks than before, such as during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The economies today have larger foreign-exchange reserves and lower levels of dollar-denominated short-term debt, according to Nomura.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师认为，该地区比 1997 年亚洲金融危机时更能抵御冲击。根据野村证券的说法，今天的经济体拥有更大的外汇储备和更低的美元计价短期债务水平。</p>
</div><p>“While these are very challenging times, we think most Asian economies can navigate through it,” said Sonal Varma, Nomura’s chief economist for Asia ex-Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管这些是非常具有挑战性的时期，但我们认为大多数亚洲经济体能够应对，” 野村证券亚太（日本除外）首席经济学家 Sonal Varma 表示。</p>
</div><p>Still, global funds have pulled back from the region. Since the war began, more than US$500 million has exited Indonesia’s local bond market, while India has seen outflows of US$1.2 billion, reinforcing pressure on currencies and yields. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，全球资金已从该地区撤回。自战争开始以来，印尼本币债券市场流出超过 5 亿美元，而印度则流出 12 亿美元，进一步加大了对货币和收益率的压力。彭博社</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>解码亚洲通讯：您的新全球秩序下导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯。直接送达您的邮箱。免费。</p>
</div>

伊朗战争引发亚洲货币和债券的极端熊市情景