<p>海通国际发布报告称，古茗 (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%) 空头头寸为 5103 万美元；比例为 35.012%。该公司最近召开了 2026 年合作伙伴大会。该券商认为，公司短期内高基数压力逐渐显现，但中长期增长战略明确，扩展空间充足。在近期运营方面，整体表现仍在正常范围内，但同店压力客观存在。5 月至 8 月的时期将是关键，公司将采取多项措施控制同店销售的下降。从 4 月到 5 月，由于天气因素和外卖需求下降速度超出预期，同店增长环比放缓，加盟商利润略有下降。然而，通过回归堂食策略和通过提高线上价格缩小外卖价格差距，公司改善了线上线下渠道的有效收入收集。加盟商利润仍然可观。外卖需求下降速度快于预期，外卖占总销售额的约 50% 至 55%。</p>
<p>在产品类别方面，咖啡已成为一个重要的增量细分市场。在 2026 年第一季度，咖啡占总杯数销售的 15% 至 20%，每家门店的日均销售量之前约为 60 到 80 杯，目前约为 80 到 90 杯。年末目标为每家门店每天 120 杯。早餐场景也是一个纯增量业务。该券商认为，第六代门店的推出与消费者习惯的变化及公司的未来商业战略相一致。</p>
<p>在成本方面，油价以及仓储和物流的短期干扰仍在可控范围内。原材料结构相对多样化，茉莉花等某些原料的成本下降，加上持续的降本增效，可以帮助抵消压力。为了推动年度三大业务举措，公司计划将 2025 年的加盟折扣和装修支持、外卖促销、咖啡扩展以及新产品发布和活动的补贴从人民币 2.3 亿元增加到 2026 年的 3 亿元。品牌推广和用户增长投资将从 2025 年的 3 亿元上升到 2026 年的 4 亿元。全年利润指引保持稳定。</p>
<p>关于行业竞争，茶饮行业继续呈现多层次价格和品牌共存的局面，领先企业之间的竞争相对稳定。中档品牌从千家门店扩展到万家门店将面临更大的供应链管理、区域扩展和运营挑战。该券商预计 2026 年将是咖啡竞争加剧的第一年。虽然咖啡价格在短期内不太可能反弹，但整体市场将扩大，产品供应将更加多样化。公司在咖啡细分市场已经具备一定的先发优势。</p>
<p>该券商基本维持 2026-2028 年的收入预测，分别为人民币 165 亿元、205 亿元和 245 亿元，年增长率为 28%、24% 和 20%。调整后的净利润预计为人民币 32.4 亿元、40.1 亿元和 50.1 亿元，年增长率为 26%、24% 和 25%，调整后的净利润率为 19.6%、19.6% 和 20.4%。维持 2026 年 20 倍市盈率估值，相应的合理目标市值为 736 亿港元。目标价从 30.8 港元上调至 31.7 港元，维持跑赢大市评级。(ha/da)(香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 5 月 21 日 16:25。)</p>

古茗

<p>海通国际已将古茗的目标价格从 30.8 港元上调至 31.7 港元，维持 “跑赢大市” 评级。报告强调，尽管面临短期压力，古茗仍有明确的中长期增长战略。公司计划增强特许经营支持并扩展咖啡业务，预计在 2026-2028 年间实现稳定的利润指引和显著的收入增长</p>

<p>Haitong International issued a report stating that GUMING (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%)  Short selling $51.03M; Ratio 35.012%  recently held its 2026 Partner Conference. The broker believes the companys short-term high base pressure is gradually emerging, but its medium- to long-term growth strategy is clear with ample room for expansion. In terms of near-term operations, overall performance remains within a normal range, while same-store pressure objectively exists. The period from May to August will be critical, and the company will adopt multiple measures to control the decline in same-store sales. From April to May, due to weather factors and a faster-than-expected decline in food delivery demand, same-store growth slowed on a QoQ basis, and franchisee profits saw a slight decrease. However, through a return-to-dine-in strategy and narrowing delivery price gaps by raising online prices, the company improved effective revenue collection across online and offline channels. Franchisee profits remain considerable. Delivery demand has declined faster than previously expected, with delivery accounting for about 50% to 55% of total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海通国际发布报告称，古茗 (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%) 空头头寸为 5103 万美元；比例为 35.012%。该公司最近召开了 2026 年合作伙伴大会。该券商认为，公司短期内高基数压力逐渐显现，但中长期增长战略明确，扩展空间充足。在近期运营方面，整体表现仍在正常范围内，但同店压力客观存在。5 月至 8 月的时期将是关键，公司将采取多项措施控制同店销售的下降。从 4 月到 5 月，由于天气因素和外卖需求下降速度超出预期，同店增长环比放缓，加盟商利润略有下降。然而，通过回归堂食策略和通过提高线上价格缩小外卖价格差距，公司改善了线上线下渠道的有效收入收集。加盟商利润仍然可观。外卖需求下降速度快于预期，外卖占总销售额的约 50% 至 55%。</p>
</div><p>In terms of product categories, coffee has become an important incremental segment. In 1Q26, coffee accounted for 15% to 20% of total cups sold, with daily sales per store previously at about 60 to 80 cups and currently around 80 to 90 cups. The year-end target is 120 cups per store per day. The breakfast scenario is also a purely incremental business. The broker believes the rollout of sixth-generation stores aligns with changes in consumer habits and the companys future business strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在产品类别方面，咖啡已成为一个重要的增量细分市场。在 2026 年第一季度，咖啡占总杯数销售的 15% 至 20%，每家门店的日均销售量之前约为 60 到 80 杯，目前约为 80 到 90 杯。年末目标为每家门店每天 120 杯。早餐场景也是一个纯增量业务。该券商认为，第六代门店的推出与消费者习惯的变化及公司的未来商业战略相一致。</p>
</div><p>On the cost side, there are short-term disruptions from oil prices and warehousing and logistics, but these remain manageable overall. The raw material structure is relatively diversified, and declining costs of certain ingredients such as jasmine flowers, along with ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, can help offset pressures. To drive its three main business initiatives for the year, the company plans to increase subsidies for franchise discounts and renovation support, delivery promotion, coffee expansion, and new product launches and campaigns from RMB230 million in 2025 to RMB300 million in 2026. Brand promotion and user growth investment will rise from RMB300 million in 2025 to RMB400 million in 2026. Full-year profit guidance remains stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在成本方面，油价以及仓储和物流的短期干扰仍在可控范围内。原材料结构相对多样化，茉莉花等某些原料的成本下降，加上持续的降本增效，可以帮助抵消压力。为了推动年度三大业务举措，公司计划将 2025 年的加盟折扣和装修支持、外卖促销、咖啡扩展以及新产品发布和活动的补贴从人民币 2.3 亿元增加到 2026 年的 3 亿元。品牌推广和用户增长投资将从 2025 年的 3 亿元上升到 2026 年的 4 亿元。全年利润指引保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>Regarding industry competition, the tea beverage sector continues to feature multiple price tiers and brands coexisting, with relatively stable competition among leading players. Mid-tier brands expanding from over one thousand stores to ten thousand stores will face significantly greater challenges in supply chain management, regional expansion, and operations. The broker expects 2026 to mark the first year of intense competition in coffee. While coffee prices are unlikely to rebound in the short term, the overall market will expand and product supply will become more diverse. The company already has a certain first-mover advantage in the coffee segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于行业竞争，茶饮行业继续呈现多层次价格和品牌共存的局面，领先企业之间的竞争相对稳定。中档品牌从千家门店扩展到万家门店将面临更大的供应链管理、区域扩展和运营挑战。该券商预计 2026 年将是咖啡竞争加剧的第一年。虽然咖啡价格在短期内不太可能反弹，但整体市场将扩大，产品供应将更加多样化。公司在咖啡细分市场已经具备一定的先发优势。</p>
</div><p>The broker largely maintains its 2026-2028 revenue forecasts at RMB16.5 billion, RMB20.5 billion and RMB24.5 billion, representing YoY growth of 28%, 24% and 20%, respectively. Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB3.24 billion, RMB4.01 billion and RMB5.01 billion, representing YoY growth of 26%, 24% and 25%, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 19.6%, 19.6% and 20.4%. Maintaining a 20x PE valuation for 2026, the corresponding reasonable target market capitalization is HKD73.6 billion. The TP is raised from HKD30.8 to HKD31.7, with an Outperform rating maintained. (ha/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-21 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该券商基本维持 2026-2028 年的收入预测，分别为人民币 165 亿元、205 亿元和 245 亿元，年增长率为 28%、24% 和 20%。调整后的净利润预计为人民币 32.4 亿元、40.1 亿元和 50.1 亿元，年增长率为 26%、24% 和 25%，调整后的净利润率为 19.6%、19.6% 和 20.4%。维持 2026 年 20 倍市盈率估值，相应的合理目标市值为 736 亿港元。目标价从 30.8 港元上调至 31.7 港元，维持跑赢大市评级。(ha/da)(香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 5 月 21 日 16:25。)</p>
</div>

海通国际将古茗的目标价上调至 31.7 港元，并维持其跑赢大市的评级