<p>市场评论员 <strong>The Kobeissi Letter</strong> 在周四警告称，由于与伊朗冲突相关的干扰，肥料成本飙升，食品价格可能进一步上涨，并分享了 DoubleLine Capital LP 对此问题的最新评论。</p>
<p>该市场评论账户表示，随着全球肥料价格自战争开始以来上涨了 44%，食品将变得&#34;更加昂贵&#34;，目前已达到自 2022 年以来的最高水平。该账户补充道，约三分之一的全球贸易肥料通过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡目前实际上处于关闭状态。</p>
<p>&#34;我们相信，全球食品通货膨胀的新一波即将来临，&#34; The Kobeissi Letter 在 X 平台上发布的帖子中表示。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>食品将变得更加昂贵：</p>
<p>自伊朗战争开始以来，全球肥料价格上涨了 44%，达到了自 2022 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>这发生在约 33% 的全球贸易肥料通过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡目前实际上处于关闭状态。</p>
<p>这包括… pic.twitter.com/cg9Kbf6eAT</p>
<p>— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) 2026 年 5 月 20 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>该账户还指出，霍尔木兹海峡的干扰影响了全球 23% 的氨贸易、34% 的尿素供应和近 20% 的磷酸盐供应。彭博农业子指数追踪包括小麦、玉米、大豆、糖、咖啡和棉花在内的农作物期货价格，自冲突升级以来也上涨了约 9%。</p>
<p>DoubleLine 的评论引用了世界银行商品价格数据，显示自战争开始以来，肥料价格上涨了 44%，而彭博农业子指数上涨了 9%。评论警告称，肥料成本的上升可能会压缩农场利润，减少肥料使用，并最终收紧未来的作物供应。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>黄仁勋表示 Nvidia 正在推动 Uber 在 30 个城市进入万亿美元自动驾驶机会</strong></p>
<h2>肥料成本飙升</h2>
<p>DoubleLine Capital LP 最近的&#34;Between the Lines&#34;评论警告称，肥料价格上涨的速度远快于农业产出价格，挤压农民，消费者在杂货店看到的影响尚未显现。</p>
<p>评论指出，肥料、燃料、运输和种子成本正在上升，而作物价格并未上涨到足以抵消更高的生产费用。</p>
<p>DoubleLine 还警告称，农民可能会减少肥料使用或转向对肥料需求较少的作物以保护利润。这可能会减少未来的作物产量，并在今年晚些时候收紧食品供应。</p>
<h2>食品通货膨胀担忧</h2>
<p>经济学家 <strong>Justin Wolfers</strong> 也在周三警告称，<strong>食品通货膨胀风险正在加剧，因为肥料</strong> 供应仍然受到霍尔木兹海峡周围干扰的影响。</p>
<p>&#34;现在的大故事是石油。下一个故事是食品，&#34; Wolfers 在 X 平台上写道。</p>
<p>根据早期报告，较高的肥料成本已经将尿素价格推高至每公吨约 900 美元，达到了自 2022 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>世界银行此前警告称，如果干扰持续，肥料价格可能在 2026 年再上涨 31%，这可能加剧全球食品不安全，并对农场盈利能力施加压力。</p>
<h2>全球食品价格上涨</h2>
<p>最新的肥料价格飙升发生在全球食品价格已经呈上升趋势之际。</p>
<p>本月早些时候，粮农组织表示，其 <strong>食品价格指数在 4 月连续第三个月上涨</strong>，主要受到植物油、谷物和肉类价格上涨的推动。</p>
<p>该机构还提到，高肥料成本和与霍尔木兹海峡相关的干扰是未来小麦生产和农业供应的风险。</p>
<p><strong>西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）</strong> 在新闻发布时上涨 1.17%，至每桶 99.41 美元，而 <strong>布伦特原油</strong> 上涨 1.08%，至每桶 106.2 美元，进一步加大了对肥料和农业投入成本的压力。</p>
<p><em><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>特朗普在一名共和党国会议员誓言要 “杀死” 18 亿美元司法部基金后发出隐晦威胁——“结果不会太好……”</strong></p>
<p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock</em></p>

安德森斯

阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰

AGRO

<p>食品通胀风险正在上升，因为自伊朗冲突开始以来，化肥价格上涨了 44%，达到了自 2022 年以来的最高水平。霍尔木兹海峡的干扰影响了全球化肥贸易的很大一部分，进一步推动了这些价格的上涨。分析师警告称，化肥成本的上升可能会压缩农场利润，并减少未来的作物产量，从而导致食品供应紧张和消费者价格上涨</p>

<p>Market commentator <strong>The Kobeissi Letter</strong> on Thursday warned that food prices could rise further as fertilizer costs surge amid disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, sharing a recent DoubleLine Capital LP commentary on the issue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场评论员 <strong>The Kobeissi Letter</strong> 在周四警告称，由于与伊朗冲突相关的干扰，肥料成本飙升，食品价格可能进一步上涨，并分享了 DoubleLine Capital LP 对此问题的最新评论。</p>
</div><p>The market commentary account said food is set to become &#34;even more expensive&#34; as global fertilizer prices have surged 44% since the start of the war, reaching the highest level since 2022. The account added that roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该市场评论账户表示，随着全球肥料价格自战争开始以来上涨了 44%，食品将变得&#34;更加昂贵&#34;，目前已达到自 2022 年以来的最高水平。该账户补充道，约三分之一的全球贸易肥料通过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡目前实际上处于关闭状态。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We believe a new wave of global food inflation is imminent,&#34; The Kobeissi Letter said in a post on X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们相信，全球食品通货膨胀的新一波即将来临，&#34; The Kobeissi Letter 在 X 平台上发布的帖子中表示。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Food is set to become even more expensive:</p>
<p>World fertilizer prices have surged +44% since the start of the Iran War, to the highest since 2022.</p>
<p>This comes as ~33% of globally traded fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.</p>
<p>This includes… pic.twitter.com/cg9Kbf6eAT</p>
<p>— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 20, 2026</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>食品将变得更加昂贵：</p>
<p>自伊朗战争开始以来，全球肥料价格上涨了 44%，达到了自 2022 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>这发生在约 33% 的全球贸易肥料通过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡目前实际上处于关闭状态。</p>
<p>这包括… pic.twitter.com/cg9Kbf6eAT</p>
<p>— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) 2026 年 5 月 20 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The account also noted that the Strait of Hormuz disruption affects 23% of global ammonia trade, 34% of urea supply and nearly 20% of phosphate supply. The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex, which tracks futures prices for crops including wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee and cotton, has also risen about 9% since the conflict escalated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该账户还指出，霍尔木兹海峡的干扰影响了全球 23% 的氨贸易、34% 的尿素供应和近 20% 的磷酸盐供应。彭博农业子指数追踪包括小麦、玉米、大豆、糖、咖啡和棉花在内的农作物期货价格，自冲突升级以来也上涨了约 9%。</p>
</div><p>The DoubleLine commentary cited World Bank Commodities Price Data showing fertilizer prices have surged 44% since the start of the war, while the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex has risen 9%. The commentary warned that rising fertilizer costs could pressure farm margins, reduce fertilizer usage and eventually tighten future crop supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DoubleLine 的评论引用了世界银行商品价格数据，显示自战争开始以来，肥料价格上涨了 44%，而彭博农业子指数上涨了 9%。评论警告称，肥料成本的上升可能会压缩农场利润，减少肥料使用，并最终收紧未来的作物供应。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Jensen Huang Says Nvidia Is Powering Uber's Push Into Trillion-Dollar Self-Driving Opportunity Across 30 Cities</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>黄仁勋表示 Nvidia 正在推动 Uber 在 30 个城市进入万亿美元自动驾驶机会</strong></p>
</div><h2>Fertilizer Costs Surge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>肥料成本飙升</h2>
</div><p>A recent &#34;Between the Lines&#34; commentary from DoubleLine Capital LP warned that fertilizer prices are rising much faster than agricultural output prices, squeezing farmers before consumers see the effects at grocery stores.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DoubleLine Capital LP 最近的&#34;Between the Lines&#34;评论警告称，肥料价格上涨的速度远快于农业产出价格，挤压农民，消费者在杂货店看到的影响尚未显现。</p>
</div><p>The commentary said fertilizer, fuel, freight and seed costs are rising while crop prices have not increased enough to offset higher production expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>评论指出，肥料、燃料、运输和种子成本正在上升，而作物价格并未上涨到足以抵消更高的生产费用。</p>
</div><p>DoubleLine also warned that farmers may reduce fertilizer usage or shift toward less fertilizer-intensive crops to protect margins. That could reduce future crop yields and tighten food supply later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DoubleLine 还警告称，农民可能会减少肥料使用或转向对肥料需求较少的作物以保护利润。这可能会减少未来的作物产量，并在今年晚些时候收紧食品供应。</p>
</div><h2>Food Inflation Concerns</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>食品通货膨胀担忧</h2>
</div><p>Economist <strong>Justin Wolfers</strong> also warned Wednesday that <strong>food inflation risks are building as fertilizer</strong> supplies remain exposed to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家 <strong>Justin Wolfers</strong> 也在周三警告称，<strong>食品通货膨胀风险正在加剧，因为肥料</strong> 供应仍然受到霍尔木兹海峡周围干扰的影响。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The big story right now is oil. The next story is food,&#34; Wolfers wrote on X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;现在的大故事是石油。下一个故事是食品，&#34; Wolfers 在 X 平台上写道。</p>
</div><p>Higher fertilizer costs have already pushed urea prices to approximately $900 per metric ton, the highest level since 2022, according to earlier reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据早期报告，较高的肥料成本已经将尿素价格推高至每公吨约 900 美元，达到了自 2022 年以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>The World Bank previously warned fertilizer prices could rise another 31% in 2026 if disruptions continue, potentially worsening global food insecurity and pressuring farm profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界银行此前警告称，如果干扰持续，肥料价格可能在 2026 年再上涨 31%，这可能加剧全球食品不安全，并对农场盈利能力施加压力。</p>
</div><h2>Global Food Prices Rise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>全球食品价格上涨</h2>
</div><p>The latest fertilizer surge comes as global food prices were already trending higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的肥料价格飙升发生在全球食品价格已经呈上升趋势之际。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this month, the Food and Agriculture Organization said its <strong>Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April</strong>, driven by gains in vegetable oils, cereals and meat prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候，粮农组织表示，其 <strong>食品价格指数在 4 月连续第三个月上涨</strong>，主要受到植物油、谷物和肉类价格上涨的推动。</p>
</div><p>The agency also cited high fertilizer costs and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz as risks to future wheat production and agricultural supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该机构还提到，高肥料成本和与霍尔木兹海峡相关的干扰是未来小麦生产和农业供应的风险。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)</strong> crude oil grew 1.17% to $99.41/barrel at press time, while <strong>Brent crude</strong> surged 1.08% to $106.2/barrel, adding further pressure to fertilizer and agricultural input costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）</strong> 在新闻发布时上涨 1.17%，至每桶 99.41 美元，而 <strong>布伦特原油</strong> 上涨 1.08%，至每桶 106.2 美元，进一步加大了对肥料和农业投入成本的压力。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Trump Issues Thinly Veiled Threat After One GOP Congressman Vows To 'Kill' $1.8 Billion DOJ Fund— 'Doesn't Work Out Too Well…'</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>特朗普在一名共和党国会议员誓言要 “杀死” 18 亿美元司法部基金后发出隐晦威胁——“结果不会太好……”</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Image via Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源于 Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

新的食品通胀冲击可能即将来临，而化肥价格则是预警信号