A $特斯拉(TSLA.US)/SpaceX merger makes no sense mathematically for TSLA shareholders unless there are huge cost or revenue synergies for $特斯拉(TSLA.US). The 35% dilution is just too great given the relative P/E differences. This is the same reason the idea of a combined enterprise with all of Elon’s businesses didn’t fly last time.
The math is pretty straightforward: If TSLA contributes its $1.5T market cap at a 200x P/E and SpaceX contributes its $800B market cap equity at a 400x P/E, the combined company would have $2.3T market cap, To make the math work, TSLA would dilute its shareholders by issuing 35% new shares ($800B / $2.3B), and the combined company would show $8B adj net income (TSLA $6B, SpaceX $2B). IMO many existing TSLA institutional shareholders would balk at the uncertainty of 25% profits coming from space travel/communications and sell their shares. Every TSLA shareholder knows that TSLA is no longer just an EV company, but Energy, Autonomy, and Robots are at least profitable and can be modeled analytically.The industrial logic of a TSLA/SpaceX merger escapes me. I get that a deal makes Elon’s empire easier to manage since TSLA can fund SpaceX’s negative cash flows but that’s not TSLA shareholders’ concern. While it’s true we no longer own TSLA shares so have no horse in this race, my past warnings to TSLA shareholders (TSLA would not sell 20M cars/year by 2030, other mnfrs would master unsupervised autonomy at the same time as TSLA) proved correct and so should afford some credibility that I know what I’m talking about. $特斯拉(TSLA.US) has now underperformed Nasdaq for 5 years (TSLA +48% vs NDX +90%) including over the past year (TSLA +12% vs NDX +20%). We use 1- and 5-year measurement periods because those are the most common periods used by Bloomberg users, as you can see by the Bloomberg default periods at the bottom of the graphs below.本文版权归属原作者/机构所有。
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