Earnings reports of the four major tech stocks this week, some buyer expectations

$微软(MSFT.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Wed, 4/30

4.4% implied move. MSFT OVER realized the move in the last 2 qtrs, but UNDER realized in the 6 of the 7 qtrs prior to that.

Numbers typically hit at 4PM EST, call is at 5:30PM.
MSFT provides guidance ON THE CALL

LATERALS SO FAR? NOW, SAP were better; AI/Data Center color/data points from VRT, CEG, TSM, APH all encouraging.

MSFT BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP

Q3 Azure growth constant currency – 30.8% (guide was 31-32% cc)
Q3 Office365 growth – 14%
Q4 guide on Azure cc growth – 31.3% (flat to 1pt of accel)…Brad is at 30.5% next qtr, having trimmed it a bit in his preview
FY25 Capex – $85B
FY26 Capex – $95.3B
FY25 GAAP EPS – $13.17
FY26 GAAP EPS – $15.17

QUESTION. If on this call, MSFT talks down future capex spend - do you find that bullish for MSFT shares? – about 30% said yes (with caveat on Azure strength), 70% said no

$Meta(META.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Wed, 4/30

7% implied move. META has UNDER-realized the implied move for the last 3 qtrs, and in 5 of the last 7 qtrs.

Numbers typically hit at 4:05PM EST; call at 5PM.
META provides guidance IN THE RELEASE (and add’l color on call)

LATERALS SO FAR? GOOGL 10% search growth was above 7-8% bogeys, don’t guide, but tone was solid; Ad Agencies mostly not “seeing it yet” and numbers OK (but often the last to know)

$Meta(META.US) BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP
Q1 Total Reported Rev Growth – 14.3% (Street at 13.5%)….

Q1 GAAP EPS – $5.21
Q2 Total Reported Rev Guidance – $43.86B, 12.3% (slightly below Street at 13.2%)….

FY25 Total Expense guide – $115.23B midpoint (current guide is $114-119B, midpoint $116.5B)…
FY25 Capex guide – $63.11B (current guide $60-65B)…
FY26 Capex – $69B….
2025 EPS – $25.78
2026 EPS – $28.45
QUESTION. What is your bull case ’26 EPS and bull case P/E multiple? – average $727 PO

$亚马逊(AMZN.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Thurs, 5/1

6% implied move. AMZN UNDER realized the last 2 qtrs, but there’s no big trend, vacillating between over/under realizing over the past 3 years.

Numbers typically hit at 4:01PM EST; call is at 5PM.
AMZN provides quarterly guidance IN THE RELEASE

AMZN BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP
AMZN Q1 Rev Growth – 8.7%
Q1 GAAP EBIT – $18.3B (Street at $17.5B)
Q1 AWS Revs/Growth – 17.6% (Street at 17%)
Q2 Rev Guide – 8.3% (below Street at 9.3%)
Q2 GAAP EBIT Guide – $17.9B (in-line with Street)…our feel is the true buyside is LOWER….more $16B-$17B mid point, Justin expects them to guide $12B-$17B, below the Street clearly
Q2 AWS Revs/Growth – 17.4%
2025 GAAP EBIT – $82.4B
2026 GAAP EBIT – $101.7B
2025 Capex – $105.7B
2026 Capex – $115.1B

$苹果(AAPL.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Thurs, 5/1

4% implied move. AAPL has UNDER realized implied moves (which were all 4% as well) in the last 3 qtrs and in the majority of quarters offer the past 5 years.

Numbers typically hit at 4:30PM EST, call is at 5PM
AAPL guides quarterly guidance on the call

AAPL BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP

Q2 Total Revenue Growth – 4.3%
Q2 iPhone Sales – $45.9B, roughly flat
Q2 Service Revenue Growth – $26.2B, +10%
Q3 Total Revenue – $91.7B, 7% (above Street at 4%)
FY25 GAAP EPS – $7.32
FY25 iPhone Rev Growth – 2%
FY26 GAAP EPS – $8.15
FY26 iPhone Rev Growth – 5-10%, wide range, Tariff uncertainty

Source: Knowledge Planet