<ul>
<li><em>Raoul Pal 的 “香蕉區” 預測比特幣的整合階段，然後轉變為 “香蕉奇點”</em></li>
<li><em>特朗普就職前的比特幣價格走勢可能引發反彈或恐慌性拋售。</em></li>
</ul>
<p>比特幣 [BTC] 最近的價格走勢引發了人們的關注，在短暫跌破 $92,500 後反彈至 $94,000 以上。這一波動的走勢讓許多投資者在市場不確定性加劇的情況下對這款加密貨幣的下一步方向產生了疑問。</p>
<h2>Raoul Pal 對當前市場狀況的看法</h2>
<p>在最近的一期播客中，Real Vision 創始人 Raoul Pal 為討論增添了獨特的視角，他提出了 “香蕉區” 的概念。Pal 進一步通過在 X（前身為 Twitter）上的一篇帖子闡述了這一觀點，含糊地表示，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“我們仍然處於香蕉區。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>這讓社區對這對比特幣的軌跡意味着什麼充滿了猜測。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp"/></p>
<p>來源：Raoul Pal/X</p>
<p>作為背景，Pal 的 “香蕉區” 概念描述了加密貨幣價格的快速上漲，其價格軌跡在圖表上呈現出香蕉的形狀。</p>
<p>Pal 進一步解釋説，市場目前處於整合階段，緊隨其後的是他所稱的 “香蕉區第一階段”，該階段以去年的價格突破為標誌。</p>
<p>他將這一階段與 2016-2017 年加密貨幣繁榮期間的市場條件進行了比較。</p>
<h2>山寨幣季節即將來臨嗎？</h2>
<p>Pal 認為這一整合階段不會持續太久，他預計市場將很快過渡到 “香蕉區第二階段”，他將其描述為 “香蕉奇點”——他預測這一階段將引發山寨幣季節。</p>
<p>根據 BlockchainCenter.net 的最新更新，山寨季節仍然是一個遙遠的前景，因為當前指數為 51——這表明尚未進入山寨季節。</p>
<p>在這一階段，正如 Pal 指出，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“一切都在上漲（隨後是更大的整合）。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Pal 還建議，市場最終將進入 “香蕉區第三階段”，他將其描述為 “集中階段”。在這裏，核心贏家會爆發並創造更高的高點。預計這一階段將標誌着週期的最後一次上漲，部分加密貨幣將達到新高。</p>
<p>與此相關，AMBCrypto 使用 IntoTheBlock 數據的分析顯示，91.82% 的比特幣持有者 “處於盈利狀態”，持有的代幣價值超過其原始購買價格。</p>
<p>這一壓倒性的數字表明瞭市場的看漲情緒，進一步支持了價格上漲的預期。相反，只有 4.52% 的 BTC 持有者 “處於虧損狀態”，持有的代幣價值低於其購買價格。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp"/></p>
<p>來源：IntoTheBlock</p>
<p>鑑於比特幣在市場中的領先地位，這一勢頭表明更廣泛的加密市場可能會隨之而動，大多數資產有望在不久的將來迎來反彈。</p>
<h2>特朗普入主白宮會永久改變加密市場動態嗎？</h2>
<p>因此，隨着比特幣在 1 月 20 日特朗普總統就職前面臨關鍵時刻，其價格軌跡仍然不確定。鑑於即將發生的事件，分析師認為，如果 BTC 能夠在就職前或之後守住 $88,000 的水平，可能會出現強勁反彈。</p>
<p>另一方面，若跌破 $88,000，可能會引發短期持有者的恐慌性拋售，可能會進一步壓低價格。</p>
<p>因此，值得等待看看接下來會發生什麼。尤其是市場在為波動性和可能影響比特幣近期前景的政治事件做好準備。</p>

GBTC

<p>Raoul Pal 的 “香蕉區” 概念表明，比特幣正處於一個整合階段，可能會進入一個潛在的山寨幣季節。比特幣最近反彈至 94,000 美元以上，這在市場不確定性中引發了對其未來方向的質疑。Pal 預計將過渡到 “香蕉奇點”，這可能會觸發山寨幣季節。目前數據顯示，91.82% 的比特幣持有者處於盈利狀態，表明市場情緒看漲。即將舉行的唐納德·特朗普總統就職典禮可能會影響比特幣的價格，分析師密切關注 88,000 美元的水平，以尋找反彈或拋售的跡象</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Raoul Pal’s “Banana Zone” predicts Bitcoin’s consolidation phase, before transitioning into “Banana Singularity”</em></li>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s price action ahead of Trump’s inauguration could trigger a rebound or panic sell-off.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Raoul Pal 的 “香蕉區” 預測比特幣的整合階段，然後轉變為 “香蕉奇點”</em></li>
<li><em>特朗普就職前的比特幣價格走勢可能引發反彈或恐慌性拋售。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC]’s recent price action has sparked intrigue as it rebounded above $94,000, after briefly dipping below $92,500. This volatile movement has left many investors questioning the cryptocurrency’s next direction amid growing market uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC] 最近的價格走勢引發了人們的關注，在短暫跌破 $92,500 後反彈至 $94,000 以上。這一波動的走勢讓許多投資者在市場不確定性加劇的情況下對這款加密貨幣的下一步方向產生了疑問。</p>
</div><h2>Raoul Pal on current market condition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Raoul Pal 對當前市場狀況的看法</h2>
</div><p>Adding a unique perspective to the discussion, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal introduced the concept of the “Banana Zone” during a recent podcast. Pal further elaborated on this idea through a post on X (formerly Twitter), cryptically stating,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一期播客中，Real Vision 創始人 Raoul Pal 為討論增添了獨特的視角，他提出了 “香蕉區” 的概念。Pal 進一步通過在 X（前身為 Twitter）上的一篇帖子闡述了這一觀點，含糊地表示，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“We are still in the Banana Zone.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“我們仍然處於香蕉區。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This has left the community buzzing with speculation about what this means for Bitcoin’s trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這讓社區對這對比特幣的軌跡意味着什麼充滿了猜測。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: Raoul Pal/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Raoul Pal/X</p>
</div><p>For context, Pal’s concept of the “Banana Zone” describes a rapid surge in the cryptocurrency’s price, one where the price trajectory resembles the shape of a banana on a chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為背景，Pal 的 “香蕉區” 概念描述了加密貨幣價格的快速上漲，其價格軌跡在圖表上呈現出香蕉的形狀。</p>
</div><p>Pal further explained that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, following what he calls “Banana Zone Phase 1,” which was marked by last year’s price breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pal 進一步解釋説，市場目前處於整合階段，緊隨其後的是他所稱的 “香蕉區第一階段”，該階段以去年的價格突破為標誌。</p>
</div><p>He compared this phase to the market conditions seen during the 2016-2017 cryptocurrency boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他將這一階段與 2016-2017 年加密貨幣繁榮期間的市場條件進行了比較。</p>
</div><h2>Is altcoin season around the corner?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>山寨幣季節即將來臨嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Pal believes this consolidation stage won’t last much longer and he anticipates the market will soon transition into “Banana Zone Phase 2,” which he describes as “Banana Singularity” — A phase he predicts will trigger an altcoin season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pal 認為這一整合階段不會持續太久，他預計市場將很快過渡到 “香蕉區第二階段”，他將其描述為 “香蕉奇點”——他預測這一階段將引發山寨幣季節。</p>
</div><p>According to the latest update from BlockchainCenter.net, the altseason is still a distant prospect, as the current index stands at 51 – A sign that it is not yet the altseason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 BlockchainCenter.net 的最新更新，山寨季節仍然是一個遙遠的前景，因為當前指數為 51——這表明尚未進入山寨季節。</p>
</div><p>During this phase, as Pal points out,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這一階段，正如 Pal 指出，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“everything goes up (followed by a bigger consolidation).”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“一切都在上漲（隨後是更大的整合）。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Pal also suggested that the market will eventually enter “Banana Zone Phase 3,” which he describes as the “concentration phase.” Here, the core winners explode and make much higher highs. This phase is expected to mark the final surge in the cycle, with select cryptocurrencies reaching new peaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pal 還建議，市場最終將進入 “香蕉區第三階段”，他將其描述為 “集中階段”。在這裏，核心贏家會爆發並創造更高的高點。預計這一階段將標誌着週期的最後一次上漲，部分加密貨幣將達到新高。</p>
</div><p>In line with this, an analysis by AMBCrypto using IntoTheBlock data revealed that a substantial 91.82% of Bitcoin holders were “in the money,” holding tokens worth more than their original purchase price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此相關，AMBCrypto 使用 IntoTheBlock 數據的分析顯示，91.82% 的比特幣持有者 “處於盈利狀態”，持有的代幣價值超過其原始購買價格。</p>
</div><p>This overwhelming figure indicated a bullish market sentiment, further supporting expectations of a price surge. Conversely, only 4.52% of BTC holders were “out of the money,” holding tokens valued lower than their purchase price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一壓倒性的數字表明瞭市場的看漲情緒，進一步支持了價格上漲的預期。相反，只有 4.52% 的 BTC 持有者 “處於虧損狀態”，持有的代幣價值低於其購買價格。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: IntoTheBlock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：IntoTheBlock</p>
</div><p>Given Bitcoin’s lead in the market, this momentum suggested that the broader crypto market will likely follow suit, with a majority of the assets poised for a rally in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於比特幣在市場中的領先地位，這一勢頭表明更廣泛的加密市場可能會隨之而動，大多數資產有望在不久的將來迎來反彈。</p>
</div><h2>Will Trump’s entry to the White House change crypto market dynamics for good?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普入主白宮會永久改變加密市場動態嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Thus, as Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January, its price trajectory remains uncertain. Given the upcoming events, analysts believe that if BTC manages to defend the $88k-level before or after the inauguration, a strong rebound could follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，隨着比特幣在 1 月 20 日特朗普總統就職前面臨關鍵時刻，其價格軌跡仍然不確定。鑑於即將發生的事件，分析師認為，如果 BTC 能夠在就職前或之後守住 $88,000 的水平，可能會出現強勁反彈。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a dip below $88k might trigger a panic sell-off by the STH (short-term holder) cohort, potentially driving the price even lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，若跌破 $88,000，可能會引發短期持有者的恐慌性拋售，可能會進一步壓低價格。</p>
</div><p>Thus, it is worth waiting to see what happens next. Especially as the market braces for volatility and the unfolding political events that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，值得等待看看接下來會發生什麼。尤其是市場在為波動性和可能影響比特幣近期前景的政治事件做好準備。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin and ‘Banana Zones’ to give way to altcoin season, ‘crypto singularity?’

Amb Crypto

比特幣和 ‘香蕉區’ 將讓位於山寨幣季節，‘加密奇點？’