<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 1.99%），截至目前，其前瞻性股息收益率為 14.3%，是市場上收益最高的股票之一。它還每月支付股息。</p>
<p>這個鉅額股息看起來很誘人，但它可持續嗎？讓我們深入探討 AGNC 的商業模式，看看它是高收益陷阱還是可行的收入投資。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEyNTcvd2F0ZXJpbmctY29pbnMtbmV4dC10by1waWdneS1iYW5rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEyNTcvd2F0ZXJpbmctY29pbnMtbmV4dC10by1waWdneS1iYW5rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 不是傳統的房地產投資信託</h2>
<p>AGNC 是一家房地產投資信託（REIT）。但與傳統 REIT 不同——傳統 REIT 購買物業、出租並與投資者分配租金收入——AGNC 並不購買任何房地產。相反，它是一家抵押貸款 REIT（mREIT），通過發放自己的抵押貸款和購買抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）來產生利息收入。</p>
<p>與傳統 REIT 一樣，AGNC 必須支付至少 90% 的税前淨收入，以維持有利的税率。但傳統 REIT 通常通過調整後的運營資金（FFO）來衡量其利潤，而 mREIT 則通過每股淨利差和美元滾動收入來評估其盈利能力。</p>
<p>淨利差是指其抵押貸款和 MBS 所賺取的收益減去融資該資產的成本。它通過出售待公告（TBA）MBS 以在當前月份交付，同時同意在未來月份購買類似的 MBS（相同的發行人、期限或票息）來產生美元滾動收入。</p>
<p>利率上升通常會提升這兩個數字。但在過去一年中，隨着利率下降，AGNC 的淨利差和每股美元滾動收入，以及其每股有形淨資產價值（評估其基礎資產的價值）均有所下降。</p>
<p>| 指標 | 2023 年第四季度 | 2024 年第一季度 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 |
| <strong>每股淨利差和美元滾動收入</strong> | $0.60 | $0.58 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 |
| <strong>每股有形淨資產價值</strong> | $8.70 | $8.84 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 |</p>
<p>數據來源：AGNC。</p>
<p>在整個年度中，AGNC 的淨利差和美元滾動收入下降了 28%，降至每股$1.88，因為美聯儲三次降低了基準利率。但這仍然足以覆蓋其每股$1.44 的股息。</p>
<h2>但隨着利率下降，它能維持如此高的收益嗎？</h2>
<p>AGNC 的商業模式看起來可能有風險，但它將 89.4% 的 733 億美元投資組合分配給由房利美、房地美或政府國民抵押協會支持的機構 MBS 資產。這種強有力的政府支持應該能保護它免受重大抵押貸款危機的影響。其風險較高的新 TBA 抵押貸款僅佔其投資組合的 9.4%。</p>
<p>對於 2025 年，分析師預計 AGNC 的淨利差和美元滾動收入將下降 15%，降至每股$1.60，因為利率將繼續下降。這仍將覆蓋其每股$1.44 的前瞻性股息，但投資者可能會對更大的降息感到謹慎。</p>
<p>AGNC 似乎對這種情況並不太擔心。在最近的電話會議上，首席執行官彼得·費德里科表示，公司對 2025 年的機構 MBS 仍持&#34;非常積極的展望&#34;，因為美聯儲&#34;終於改變了其限制性貨幣政策立場，並開始將短期利率恢復到中性水平的過程。&#34;</p>
<p>換句話説，AGNC 不希望利率保持過高，因為這會抑制房地產市場並使發放新抵押貸款變得更加困難，但他們也不希望利率降得過低，以免減少其淨利差收入。因此，較慢的降息——這可能是現實，因為美國總統唐納德·特朗普不可預測的關税、地緣政治緊張局勢和持續的通貨膨脹為經濟帶來了阻力——實際上可能會緩解衝擊，使 AGNC 能夠支持其高股息收益率。</p>
<h2>AGNC 的 14.3% 股息看起來可持續……目前</h2>
<p>AGNC 的 14.3% 收益率看起來極其高，但在可預見的未來應該保持可持續。它的估值也顯得偏低：每股$10 的交易價格，僅為其 2025 年預計的每股淨利差和美元滾動收入的 6 倍。</p>
<p>如此高的收益率和低估值應該限制其下行潛力，但投資者不應僅僅買入後就忘記它。相反，他們應該密切關注利率，並觀察其如何影響抵押貸款市場。如果利率快速飆升或下降，AGNC 可能會失去平衡，被迫削減其高額股息。</p>

美國資本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 提供高達 14.3% 的前瞻性股息收益率，但由於利率波動，其可持續性受到質疑。作為一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託（REIT），AGNC 通過抵押貸款和抵押貸款支持證券產生收入，其投資組合中有相當一部分是由政府機構擔保的。儘管最近淨利差和美元滾動收入有所下降，但分析師預測，只要利率不會大幅下降，它仍然可以維持其股息。投資者被建議密切關注利率變化，因為快速波動可能會影響 AGNC 維持股息的能力</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC 1.99%), with a forward dividend yield of 14.3% as of this writing, is one of the market's highest-yielding stocks. It also pays monthly dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 1.99%），截至目前，其前瞻性股息收益率為 14.3%，是市場上收益最高的股票之一。它還每月支付股息。</p>
</div><p>That massive dividend might look tempting, but is it sustainable? Let's dig deeper into AGNC's business model to see if it's a high-yield trap or a viable income investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個鉅額股息看起來很誘人，但它可持續嗎？讓我們深入探討 AGNC 的商業模式，看看它是高收益陷阱還是可行的收入投資。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEyNTcvd2F0ZXJpbmctY29pbnMtbmV4dC10by1waWdneS1iYW5rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811257%2Fwatering-coins-next-to-piggy-bank.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AGNC isn't a traditional REIT</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 不是傳統的房地產投資信託</h2>
</div><p>AGNC is a real estate investment trust (REIT). But unlike traditional REITs -- which buy properties, rent them out, and split the rental income with their investors -- AGNC doesn't buy any real estate. Instead, it's a mortgage REIT (mREIT) which originates its own mortgages and purchases mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to generate its interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家房地產投資信託（REIT）。但與傳統 REIT 不同——傳統 REIT 購買物業、出租並與投資者分配租金收入——AGNC 並不購買任何房地產。相反，它是一家抵押貸款 REIT（mREIT），通過發放自己的抵押貸款和購買抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）來產生利息收入。</p>
</div><p>Like traditional REITs, AGNC must pay out at least 90% of its pre-tax net income to maintain a favorable tax rate. But while traditional REITs usually measure their profits with their adjusted funds from operations (FFO), mREITs gauge their profitability through their net spread and dollar roll income per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與傳統 REIT 一樣，AGNC 必須支付至少 90% 的税前淨收入，以維持有利的税率。但傳統 REIT 通常通過調整後的運營資金（FFO）來衡量其利潤，而 mREIT 則通過每股淨利差和美元滾動收入來評估其盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>The net spread refers to the yield earned on its mortgages and MBS minus the costs of funding that asset. It generates its dollar roll income by selling its to-be-announced (TBA) MBS for delivery in the current month as it simultaneously agrees to buy a similar MBS (the same issuer, term, or coupon) in a future month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨利差是指其抵押貸款和 MBS 所賺取的收益減去融資該資產的成本。它通過出售待公告（TBA）MBS 以在當前月份交付，同時同意在未來月份購買類似的 MBS（相同的發行人、期限或票息）來產生美元滾動收入。</p>
</div><p>Rising interest rates usually boost both of these figures. But over the past year, AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income per share, along with its tangible net book value per share (which values its underlying assets), dipped as interest rates fell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率上升通常會提升這兩個數字。但在過去一年中，隨着利率下降，AGNC 的淨利差和每股美元滾動收入，以及其每股有形淨資產價值（評估其基礎資產的價值）均有所下降。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
| <strong>Net Spread and Dollar Roll Income per Share</strong> | $0.60 | $0.58 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 |
| <strong>Tangible Net Book Value per Share</strong> | $8.70 | $8.84 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指標 | 2023 年第四季度 | 2024 年第一季度 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 |
| <strong>每股淨利差和美元滾動收入</strong> | $0.60 | $0.58 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 |
| <strong>每股有形淨資產價值</strong> | $8.70 | $8.84 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 |</p>
</div><p>Data source: AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：AGNC。</p>
</div><p>For the full year, AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income dropped 28% to $1.88 per share as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates three times. But that still comfortably covered its $1.44 in dividends per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在整個年度中，AGNC 的淨利差和美元滾動收入下降了 28%，降至每股$1.88，因為美聯儲三次降低了基準利率。但這仍然足以覆蓋其每股$1.44 的股息。</p>
</div><h2>But can it maintain that high yield as interest rates decline?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但隨着利率下降，它能維持如此高的收益嗎？</h2>
</div><p>AGNC's business model might seem risky, but it allocates 89.4% of its $73.3 billion portfolio to Agency MBS assets, which are backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. That firm government support should shield it from a major mortgage crisis. Its riskier new TBA mortgages only account for 9.4% of its portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 的商業模式看起來可能有風險，但它將 89.4% 的 733 億美元投資組合分配給由房利美、房地美或政府國民抵押協會支持的機構 MBS 資產。這種強有力的政府支持應該能保護它免受重大抵押貸款危機的影響。其風險較高的新 TBA 抵押貸款僅佔其投資組合的 9.4%。</p>
</div><p>For 2025, analysts expect AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income to decline 15% to $1.60 per share as interest rates keep dropping. That will still cover its forward dividend of $1.44 per share, but investors might be wary of bigger rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 2025 年，分析師預計 AGNC 的淨利差和美元滾動收入將下降 15%，降至每股$1.60，因為利率將繼續下降。這仍將覆蓋其每股$1.44 的前瞻性股息，但投資者可能會對更大的降息感到謹慎。</p>
</div><p>AGNC doesn't seem too concerned about that scenario. During its latest conference call, CEO Peter Federico said the company still had a &#34;very positive outlook for Agency MBS&#34; in 2025 as the Fed had &#34;finally shifted its restrictive monetary policy stance and began the process of returning short term rates to a neutral level.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 似乎對這種情況並不太擔心。在最近的電話會議上，首席執行官彼得·費德里科表示，公司對 2025 年的機構 MBS 仍持&#34;非常積極的展望&#34;，因為美聯儲&#34;終於改變了其限制性貨幣政策立場，並開始將短期利率恢復到中性水平的過程。&#34;</p>
</div><p>In other words, AGNC doesn't want interest rates to stay too high, since they'll chill the real estate market and make it harder to originate new mortgages, but they also don't want them to drop so low that they reduce its net spread income. Therefore, slower rate cuts -- which might now be a reality as U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and sticky inflation generate headwinds for the economy -- could actually cushion the blow and enable AGNC to support its high dividend yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，AGNC 不希望利率保持過高，因為這會抑制房地產市場並使發放新抵押貸款變得更加困難，但他們也不希望利率降得過低，以免減少其淨利差收入。因此，較慢的降息——這可能是現實，因為美國總統唐納德·特朗普不可預測的關税、地緣政治緊張局勢和持續的通貨膨脹為經濟帶來了阻力——實際上可能會緩解衝擊，使 AGNC 能夠支持其高股息收益率。</p>
</div><h2>AGNC's 14.3% dividend looks sustainable... for now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 的 14.3% 股息看起來可持續……目前</h2>
</div><p>AGNC's 14.3% yield might seem ridiculously high, but it should remain sustainable for the foreseeable future. It also looks undervalued: At $10 a share, it trades at just 6 times its projected net spread and dollar roll income per share for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 的 14.3% 收益率看起來極其高，但在可預見的未來應該保持可持續。它的估值也顯得偏低：每股$10 的交易價格，僅為其 2025 年預計的每股淨利差和美元滾動收入的 6 倍。</p>
</div><p>That high yield and low valuation should limit its downside potential, but investors shouldn't just buy it and forget about it. Instead, they should closely monitor interest rates and see how they affect the mortgage market. If interest rates spike or drop too quickly, AGNC could lose its balance and be forced to slash its high dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此高的收益率和低估值應該限制其下行潛力，但投資者不應僅僅買入後就忘記它。相反，他們應該密切關注利率，並觀察其如何影響抵押貸款市場。如果利率快速飆升或下降，AGNC 可能會失去平衡，被迫削減其高額股息。</p>
</div>

這隻股票高達 14.3% 的股息收益率能否持續下去？