<p>目前，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 10.08%) (GOOGL 9.90%) 最具吸引力的增長機會之一是通過其 Waymo 業務進入機器人出租車領域。這有潛力徹底改變出租車行業。去年，Waymo 每週平均完成 150,000 次出行，而隨着服務擴展到更多市場，這一數字在今年將進一步上升。</p>
<p>但儘管 Waymo 具有良好的潛力，我認為 Alphabet 在未來五年內剝離該業務的可能性非常高。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 已經在人工智能上投入巨資</h2>
<p>創建和維護一個不斷增長的機器人出租車車隊將是非常昂貴的。對 Alphabet 來説，風險在於隨着 Waymo 規模的擴大，Alphabet 的運營可能會變得更加複雜和昂貴。它已經在多個城市運營，包括洛杉磯、舊金山、奧斯丁和鳳凰城。然而，Waymo 最近宣佈了更多城市的擴展計劃，亞特蘭大、華盛頓特區和東京都在其近期擴展的市場名單上。</p>
<p>問題在於，隨着進入更多市場，Waymo 的成本將顯著上升，而此時 Alphabet 正在大力投資人工智能 (AI)。僅在今年，Alphabet 預計將在構建其 AI 基礎設施上花費 750 億美元。</p>
<p>在與許多其他科技公司進行的 AI 競爭中，Alphabet 正在努力保護其搜索主導地位——並且正在投資其 Gemini 聊天機器人，以確保即使用户依賴聊天機器人而非 Google 搜索，使用的也是 Gemini。該公司在其核心業務中面臨着相當大的風險，這是它過去不必擔心的。AI 聊天機器人可能為其他公司提供了一個機會，最終從 Alphabet 手中奪走一些有價值的市場份額和廣告支出。</p>
<h2>Waymo 可能為 Alphabet 解鎖數十億美元的價值</h2>
<p>通過剝離 Waymo，Alphabet 也可能為自己和投資者解鎖更多的價值。去年，Waymo 的估值據報道超過 450 億美元，基於最近的一輪融資。但隨着業務的擴展並覆蓋全國更多市場，Waymo 的估值在未來可能會大幅上升。</p>
<p>這筆資金可以幫助 Alphabet 追求其他與 AI 和其核心業務更為互補的收購。此外，通過剝離，Alphabet 還可能節省數十億美元，因為不必在擴展和發展 Waymo 的業務上花費更多資金。通過專注於各自的核心競爭力和優勢，企業有時可以在長期內實現比在同一框架下更大的效率和成果。</p>
<p>Alphabet 已經將 Waymo 帶到了這個階段，但更具吸引力的舉動可能是保留對這家汽車公司的股份，並讓其作為獨立實體運營。</p>
<h2>為什麼這對投資者來説可能是雙贏</h2>
<p>Waymo 的股票剝離可能讓投資者在兩個快速增長的業務中擁有股份：Alphabet 和 Waymo。如果你最終更喜歡其中一個，你可以隨時出售其中一個的持股。只需看看圍繞 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 及其機器人出租車的熱情，就能明白為什麼投資者可能會對 Waymo 的剝離感到興奮，因為該股票本身可能會產生大量的樂觀情緒，甚至可能吸引一些投資者遠離特斯拉，如果它能夠展示出更優越的業績。</p>
<p>現在，投資者必須接受整個包裹——包括 Alphabet 所有其他業務的 Alphabet。通過剝離 Waymo，投資者將有更多選擇，這可能導致兩個業務的合併估值遠高於 Alphabet 當前的估值。</p>
<p>無論最終發生什麼，你可能都想考慮購買並持有 Alphabet 股票，特別是考慮到其適度的估值；它的交易價格為其過去收益的 18 倍。無論公司是否剝離 Waymo，你都可以從其未來增長中受益。在最佳情況下，剝離確實發生，你的投資組合中將有兩隻出色的成長股。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>預計谷歌母公司 Alphabet 將在五年內剝離其 Waymo 機器人出租車業務，原因是運營成本上升和對人工智能的重磅投資。Waymo 目前的估值超過 450 億美元，正在擴展到新市場，這可能進一步提高其估值。剝離可能為 Alphabet 釋放價值，併為投資者提供在兩家快速增長公司的股份，可能導致兩者的估值都提高。無論結果如何，考慮到其適中的估值，Alphabet 的股票仍然是一個穩健的投資機會</p>

<p>One of the most intriguing growth opportunities for <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 10.08%) (GOOGL 9.90%) these days is in robotaxis, via its Waymo business. It has the potential to revolutionize the taxi industry. Last year, it averaged 150,000 trips per week, and that number is going to climb even higher this year, as the service expands into more markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 10.08%) (GOOGL 9.90%) 最具吸引力的增長機會之一是通過其 Waymo 業務進入機器人出租車領域。這有潛力徹底改變出租車行業。去年，Waymo 每週平均完成 150,000 次出行，而隨着服務擴展到更多市場，這一數字在今年將進一步上升。</p>
</div><p>But despite Waymo's promising potential, here's why I think it's highly likely that Alphabet will spin off the business within the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但儘管 Waymo 具有良好的潛力，我認為 Alphabet 在未來五年內剝離該業務的可能性非常高。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet is already spending heavily on artificial intelligence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 已經在人工智能上投入巨資</h2>
</div><p>Creating and maintaining a growing fleet of robotaxis is going to be expensive. And the danger for Alphabet is that as Waymo grows in size, Alphabet's operations may get much more complex and costly amid that process. It's already operating in multiple cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix. However, Waymo has recently announced plans for more cities, with Atlanta, Washington, D.C., and Tokyo being on the list of markets it wants to expand into in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>創建和維護一個不斷增長的機器人出租車車隊將是非常昂貴的。對 Alphabet 來説，風險在於隨着 Waymo 規模的擴大，Alphabet 的運營可能會變得更加複雜和昂貴。它已經在多個城市運營，包括洛杉磯、舊金山、奧斯丁和鳳凰城。然而，Waymo 最近宣佈了更多城市的擴展計劃，亞特蘭大、華盛頓特區和東京都在其近期擴展的市場名單上。</p>
</div><p>The problem is that by expanding into more markets, Waymo's costs are going to rise significantly at a time when Alphabet is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI). This year alone, Alphabet expects to spend $75 billion on building out its AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於，隨着進入更多市場，Waymo 的成本將顯著上升，而此時 Alphabet 正在大力投資人工智能 (AI)。僅在今年，Alphabet 預計將在構建其 AI 基礎設施上花費 750 億美元。</p>
</div><p>In the midst of an AI battle involving many other tech companies, Alphabet is looking to protect its search dominance -- and it's investing in its Gemini chatbot to ensure that at least if users are relying on chatbots rather than Google Search, it's Gemini that they are using. The company is facing a considerable risk in its core business, one that it hasn't had to worry about in the past. AI chatbots could give other companies a way to finally wrestle away some valuable market share and ad spend from Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在與許多其他科技公司進行的 AI 競爭中，Alphabet 正在努力保護其搜索主導地位——並且正在投資其 Gemini 聊天機器人，以確保即使用户依賴聊天機器人而非 Google 搜索，使用的也是 Gemini。該公司在其核心業務中面臨着相當大的風險，這是它過去不必擔心的。AI 聊天機器人可能為其他公司提供了一個機會，最終從 Alphabet 手中奪走一些有價值的市場份額和廣告支出。</p>
</div><h2>Waymo may unlock billions in value for Alphabet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Waymo 可能為 Alphabet 解鎖數十億美元的價值</h2>
</div><p>By spinning off Waymo, Alphabet may also be able to unlock a lot more value for itself and investors. Last year, Waymo was reportedly estimated to be worth more than $45 billion, based on a recent funding round. But with the business expanding and reaching more markets throughout the country, it's probable that Waymo's valuation will go much higher in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過剝離 Waymo，Alphabet 也可能為自己和投資者解鎖更多的價值。去年，Waymo 的估值據報道超過 450 億美元，基於最近的一輪融資。但隨着業務的擴展並覆蓋全國更多市場，Waymo 的估值在未來可能會大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>That money could help Alphabet pursue other acquisitions that are more complementary to AI and its core operations. Plus, by spinning it off, the company may also be able to save billions by not having to spend more money in expanding and growing Waymo's business. By focusing on their core competencies and strengths, individually, businesses can sometimes achieve greater efficiencies and results in the long run than if they are all under the same umbrella.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這筆資金可以幫助 Alphabet 追求其他與 AI 和其核心業務更為互補的收購。此外，通過剝離，Alphabet 還可能節省數十億美元，因為不必在擴展和發展 Waymo 的業務上花費更多資金。通過專注於各自的核心競爭力和優勢，企業有時可以在長期內實現比在同一框架下更大的效率和成果。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet has gotten Waymo to this point, but the more compelling move may be to retain a stake in the car company and let it operate as a separate entity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 已經將 Waymo 帶到了這個階段，但更具吸引力的舉動可能是保留對這家汽車公司的股份，並讓其作為獨立實體運營。</p>
</div><h2>Why this could be a win-win for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼這對投資者來説可能是雙贏</h2>
</div><p>A stock spinoff of Waymo could allow investors to have a stake in two fast-growing businesses: Alphabet and Waymo. And if you end up preferring one over the other, you could always sell your holdings in one of them. You only have to look at the excitement around <strong>Tesla</strong> and its robotaxis to see why investors may be thrilled with a Waymo spinoff as the stock could generate a lot of bullishness itself, and may even lure some investors away from Tesla if it's able to demonstrate superior results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 的股票剝離可能讓投資者在兩個快速增長的業務中擁有股份：Alphabet 和 Waymo。如果你最終更喜歡其中一個，你可以隨時出售其中一個的持股。只需看看圍繞 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 及其機器人出租車的熱情，就能明白為什麼投資者可能會對 Waymo 的剝離感到興奮，因為該股票本身可能會產生大量的樂觀情緒，甚至可能吸引一些投資者遠離特斯拉，如果它能夠展示出更優越的業績。</p>
</div><p>Right now, investors have to take the whole package -- Alphabet with all of its other businesses. By spinning off Waymo, investors will have more choice, and that could result in a much higher valuation for the two businesses combined rather than where Alphabet sits today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，投資者必須接受整個包裹——包括 Alphabet 所有其他業務的 Alphabet。通過剝離 Waymo，投資者將有更多選擇，這可能導致兩個業務的合併估值遠高於 Alphabet 當前的估值。</p>
</div><p>Regardless of what ends up happening, you may want to consider buying and holding Alphabet stock, especially given its modest valuation; it's trading at 18 times its trailing earnings. Either way, whether the company spins off Waymo or it doesn't, you can stand to benefit from its future growth. Under the best-case scenario, a spin-off does end up taking place and you'll have two terrific growth stocks in your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論最終發生什麼，你可能都想考慮購買並持有 Alphabet 股票，特別是考慮到其適度的估值；它的交易價格為其過去收益的 18 倍。無論公司是否剝離 Waymo，你都可以從其未來增長中受益。在最佳情況下，剝離確實發生，你的投資組合中將有兩隻出色的成長股。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Alphabet Will Spin Off Waymo Within 5 Years

- Alphabet 的 Waymo 業務在機器人出租車領域有巨大增長潛力。  
- Waymo 去年每週平均完成 150,000 次出行，計劃擴展至更多城市。  
- 分拆 Waymo 可能為 Alphabet 解鎖更高估值，並讓投資者受益於兩家快速增長的公司。

預測：Alphabet 將在五年內分拆 Waymo