<p>政策制定者預計增長放緩，失業率和通脹上升</p>
<p>現在的展望是利率削減減少，放鬆步伐放緩</p>
<p>特朗普七月關税截止日期帶來的風險依然存在</p>
<p>作者：霍華德·施奈德</p>
<p>華盛頓，6 月 20 日（路透社）——唐納德·特朗普總統在一月份的就職承諾 “美國的黃金時代現在開始” 在美聯儲官員的展望中仍未實現，他們目前認為他的政策正在減緩經濟，抬高失業率和通脹，並且由於尚未解決的關税爭論，前景變得更加不明朗，這可能在未來幾周帶來新的衝擊。美國中央銀行的反應是將計劃中的利率削減擱置，可能要等到秋季，同時在關税和其他政府優先事項的辯論展開時，預計未來的利率削減步伐將更為緩慢，最終達到更高的停止點。實際上，這將更高的借貸成本嵌入美聯儲政策制定者的展望中，以防範他們現在認為在未來幾個月通脹將高於特朗普第二次就職前的預期。這對特朗普來説並不是好消息，他曾稱美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾 “愚蠢”，因為沒有立即大幅削減利率。這對希望降低融資成本的美國消費者和購房者來説也同樣不受歡迎。而且這使得美聯儲在某種程度上與其他繼續降息的中央銀行步調不一致。</p>
<p>但這確實突顯了特朗普早期政策舉措，特別是關税，如何重塑了世界最大經濟體的短期展望，去年年底時被認為將繼續保持高於趨勢的增長、充分就業和通脹穩步下降至美聯儲 2% 的目標。政策制定者在六個月前預期的穩定利率削減系列已被更為謹慎的路徑所取代，他們在等待特朗普對關税的最終決定，並觀察就業市場、消費者支出和通脹的演變。鮑威爾在週三對記者表示：“我們感覺在夏季將會對關税有更多的瞭解。” 美聯儲在連續第四次會議上將基準隔夜利率維持在 4.25%-4.50% 的區間，併發布了新的預測，顯示到今年年底通脹將大幅上升，之後緩慢下降。特朗普抓住最近疲軟的通脹數據來主張降息，週四重申美聯儲應該將基準利率削減近一半，並在本週早些時候指出，歐洲中央銀行和其他央行已繼續放鬆貨幣政策。</p>
<p>但是，談到迄今為止實施的關税的影響時，鮑威爾表示：“我們沒有預期它們會在現在顯現出來，而它們確實沒有……我們將看到它們在未來幾個月的影響程度……這將影響我們的思考。”</p>
<p>信心不足 此時，投資者預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16-17 日的會議上降息，儘管這在很大程度上取決於鮑威爾在夏季觀察和等待期間發生的事情。特朗普最激進的關税計劃，即在四月初 “解放日” 宣佈對大多數貿易伙伴徵收的關税，在債券收益率飆升、股市下跌以及經濟學家開始預測美國經濟衰退後被推遲。暫停將於 7 月 9 日結束，包括歐盟在內的國家應在那之前達成協議，否則將面臨高達 50% 的進口關税。</p>
<p>迄今為止唯一完成的協議是與英國達成的有限協議。</p>
<p>儘管美聯儲本週的新政策聲明稱 “對經濟前景的不確定性自 5 月 6-7 日會議以來有所減弱”，當時圍繞貿易問題的波動仍然很強烈，但情況可能會因 7 月 9 日的截止日期而迅速改變。</p>
<p>“我們尚不清楚他們將會達成什麼，” 鮑威爾説。在上個月的會議上，美聯儲工作人員的預測認為今年經濟衰退的可能性 “幾乎與基線預測的放緩但持續增長一樣高”。</p>
<p>此後情況有所改善。鮑威爾在週三表示，經濟仍然 “穩健”，並補充説，隨着最嚴重關税風險的減弱，公司開始思考如何適應更温和的關税。</p>
<p>“企業在四月後也有些震驚……現在人們正在逐步適應，感覺與三個月前相比要積極和建設性得多，” 他説。股票價格也在上漲，推動美元地位下降的國債收益率飆升也有所緩解。</p>
<h3>前景黯淡</h3>
<p>但避免衰退與美聯儲在去年年底時的情況相去甚遠，當時它正接近於從 COVID-19 疫情時代的高通脹中實現 “軟着陸”。經濟處於充分就業狀態，穩步高於趨勢增長，通脹有望降至美聯儲的 2% 目標，中央銀行預計將穩步降低借貸成本。“美國經濟表現非常好，” 鮑威爾在美聯儲 12 月 17-18 日的會議後表示，那次會議上，工作人員和官員剛開始思考貿易戰的影響，而這場貿易戰的範圍遠超他們的預期。“前景相當光明。”</p>
<p>但自那以來前景已黯淡。在本週發佈的預測中，美聯儲政策制定者對國內生產總值增長的中位展望已降至 1.4%，遠低於去年 12 月預測的 2.1%，預計失業率將從當前的 4.2% 上升至年底的 4.5%。這將是自 2017 年初特朗普第一任期開始以來，除了疫情失業激增外的最高水平。</p>
<p>鮑威爾表示，曾經 “逐漸下降” 的通脹現在預計在今年上升至 3%，並將在 2026 年前保持在美聯儲目標的近半個百分點以上。</p>
<p>鮑威爾表示，勞動力市場依然穩健，但他警告説，這一評估可能會改變，政策制定者表示，如果就業情況惡化，他們的政策預期可能會迅速調整。</p>
<p>鮑威爾説：“勞動力需求正在減弱。裁員並不多，但工作創造也不多。如果你失業了，找到工作是很困難的……這是我們非常仔細關注的一個平衡，因為如果發生重大裁員，而找工作的比例仍然如此低，失業率將會很快上升。”</p>
<p>圖表 - 美聯儲利率前景上調</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="1058" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>圖表 - 美聯儲對 2025 年的看法</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="762" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png"/></p>
<p>圖表 - 利率與通脹</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1648" height="1170" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png"/></p>

<p>美聯儲官員預計經濟增長放緩、失業率上升和通貨膨脹，這與特朗普的經濟承諾相悖。由於關税辯論即將展開，利率削減暫時擱置，未來削減的路徑仍不確定。投資者預計在九月份會有一次降息，但由於即將進行的關税談判，仍存在不確定性。美聯儲主席鮑威爾指出，儘管經濟穩健，但自去年以來前景已變得暗淡，衰退風險依然存在。隨着企業適應不斷變化的關税條件，市場情緒變得更加積極</p>

<p>Policymakers project slower growth, higher unemployment and inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者預計增長放緩，失業率和通脹上升</p>
</div><p>Outlook is now for fewer interest rate cuts, slower pace of easing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的展望是利率削減減少，放鬆步伐放緩</p>
</div><p>Risks remain with Trump’s July tariff deadline coming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普七月關税截止日期帶來的風險依然存在</p>
</div><p>By Howard Schneider</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：霍華德·施奈德</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s inauguration promise in January that “the golden age of America begins right now” remains unfulfilled in the outlook of Federal Reserve officials who so far see his policies slowing the economy, raising unemployment and inflation, and clouding the horizon with a still-unresolved tariff debate that could deliver a fresh shock in coming weeks. The U.S. central bank’s response has been to put planned interest rate cuts on hold until perhaps the fall while the debates over tariffs and other administration priorities unfold, and to project a slower eventual pace of rate cuts to a higher stopping point. Effectively it embeds steeper borrowing costs into Fed policymakers’ outlook to insure against inflation they now see as higher in coming months than they did before Trump took office for a second time. That isn’t welcome news for Trump, who has called Fed Chair Jerome Powell “stupid” for not slashing rates immediately. It is no more welcome for U.S. consumers and homebuyers hoping for lower financing costs. And it puts the Fed somewhat out of step with other central banks that continue to lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓，6 月 20 日（路透社）——唐納德·特朗普總統在一月份的就職承諾 “美國的黃金時代現在開始” 在美聯儲官員的展望中仍未實現，他們目前認為他的政策正在減緩經濟，抬高失業率和通脹，並且由於尚未解決的關税爭論，前景變得更加不明朗，這可能在未來幾周帶來新的衝擊。美國中央銀行的反應是將計劃中的利率削減擱置，可能要等到秋季，同時在關税和其他政府優先事項的辯論展開時，預計未來的利率削減步伐將更為緩慢，最終達到更高的停止點。實際上，這將更高的借貸成本嵌入美聯儲政策制定者的展望中，以防範他們現在認為在未來幾個月通脹將高於特朗普第二次就職前的預期。這對特朗普來説並不是好消息，他曾稱美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾 “愚蠢”，因為沒有立即大幅削減利率。這對希望降低融資成本的美國消費者和購房者來説也同樣不受歡迎。而且這使得美聯儲在某種程度上與其他繼續降息的中央銀行步調不一致。</p>
</div><p>But it does highlight how much Trump’s early policy moves, particularly on tariffs, have reshaped the short-term outlook for the world’s largest economy, which at the end of last year was seen on track for continued above-trend growth, full employment and inflation steadily falling to the Fed’s 2% target. The steady series of rate cuts policymakers anticipated just six months ago has been replaced with a more tentative path as they wait for Trump’s final decisions on tariffs and watch how the job market, consumer spending and inflation evolve. “We feel like we’re going to learn a great deal more over the summer on tariffs,” Powell told reporters on Wednesday after the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the fourth straight meeting, and issued new projections showing inflation rising substantially by the end of this year and coming down slowly after that point. Trump has latched on to recent weak inflation readings to argue for rate cuts, reiterating on Thursday that the Fed should slash its benchmark rate nearly in half and noting earlier in the week that the European Central Bank and others had kept easing monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這確實突顯了特朗普早期政策舉措，特別是關税，如何重塑了世界最大經濟體的短期展望，去年年底時被認為將繼續保持高於趨勢的增長、充分就業和通脹穩步下降至美聯儲 2% 的目標。政策制定者在六個月前預期的穩定利率削減系列已被更為謹慎的路徑所取代，他們在等待特朗普對關税的最終決定，並觀察就業市場、消費者支出和通脹的演變。鮑威爾在週三對記者表示：“我們感覺在夏季將會對關税有更多的瞭解。” 美聯儲在連續第四次會議上將基準隔夜利率維持在 4.25%-4.50% 的區間，併發布了新的預測，顯示到今年年底通脹將大幅上升，之後緩慢下降。特朗普抓住最近疲軟的通脹數據來主張降息，週四重申美聯儲應該將基準利率削減近一半，並在本週早些時候指出，歐洲中央銀行和其他央行已繼續放鬆貨幣政策。</p>
</div><p>But, referring to the impact of the tariffs imposed so far, Powell said “we hadn’t expected them to show up much by now, and they haven’t … We will see the extent to which they do over coming months … That’s going to inform our thinking.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，談到迄今為止實施的關税的影響時，鮑威爾表示：“我們沒有預期它們會在現在顯現出來，而它們確實沒有……我們將看到它們在未來幾個月的影響程度……這將影響我們的思考。”</p>
</div><p>LITTLE CONFIDENCE At this point, investors expect the Fed to cut rates at its September 16-17 meeting, though much will depend on what happens during Powell’s summer of watching and waiting. The most aggressive of Trump’s tariff plans, levies on most trading partners announced on “Liberation Day” in early April, were postponed after bond yields spiked, stocks dropped, and economists began penciling in a U.S. recession. The pause ends on July 9, with countries, including those in the European Union’s combined trading bloc, supposed to negotiate deals by then or face steep import levies - 50% in the case of the EU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信心不足 此時，投資者預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16-17 日的會議上降息，儘管這在很大程度上取決於鮑威爾在夏季觀察和等待期間發生的事情。特朗普最激進的關税計劃，即在四月初 “解放日” 宣佈對大多數貿易伙伴徵收的關税，在債券收益率飆升、股市下跌以及經濟學家開始預測美國經濟衰退後被推遲。暫停將於 7 月 9 日結束，包括歐盟在內的國家應在那之前達成協議，否則將面臨高達 50% 的進口關税。</p>
</div><p>The only completed deal so far is a limited agreement with Britain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迄今為止唯一完成的協議是與英國達成的有限協議。</p>
</div><p>Though the Fed’s new policy statement this week said “uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished” since its May 6-7 meeting, when volatility around the trade issue was still intense, the situation could change quickly based on the July 9 deadline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美聯儲本週的新政策聲明稱 “對經濟前景的不確定性自 5 月 6-7 日會議以來有所減弱”，當時圍繞貿易問題的波動仍然很強烈，但情況可能會因 7 月 9 日的截止日期而迅速改變。</p>
</div><p>“We don’t yet know with any confidence where they will settle out,” Powell said. At the meeting last month, a Fed staff projection regarded a recession this year to be “almost as likely as the baseline forecast” of slowing but ongoing growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們尚不清楚他們將會達成什麼，” 鮑威爾説。在上個月的會議上，美聯儲工作人員的預測認為今年經濟衰退的可能性 “幾乎與基線預測的放緩但持續增長一樣高”。</p>
</div><p>The situation has since improved somewhat. Powell on Wednesday said the economy remains “solid,” adding that as the risk of the most severe tariffs has abated, companies have begun to puzzle through how they might adapt to more modest levies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此後情況有所改善。鮑威爾在週三表示，經濟仍然 “穩健”，並補充説，隨着最嚴重關税風險的減弱，公司開始思考如何適應更温和的關税。</p>
</div><p>“Businesses were in a bit of a shock after April too … There’s a very different feeling now that people are working their way through this … It feels much more positive and constructive than it did three months ago,” he said. Prices of equities have marched higher as well, and the spike in Treasury yields that drove talk of the diminished status of the dollar has also eased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“企業在四月後也有些震驚……現在人們正在逐步適應，感覺與三個月前相比要積極和建設性得多，” 他説。股票價格也在上漲，推動美元地位下降的國債收益率飆升也有所緩解。</p>
</div><h3>DIMMER OUTLOOK</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>前景黯淡</h3>
</div><p>But skirting a recession is a large step from where the Fed was at the end of last year, when it was in sight of a “soft landing” from the high inflation of the COVID-19 pandemic era. The economy was at full employment and steadily growing above trend, inflation was on track to fall to the Fed’s 2% target, and the central bank expected to steadily ease borrowing costs. “The U.S. economy is just performing very, very well,” Powell said after the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting, a session at which staff and officials had just begun thinking through the implications of a trade war that became much bigger in scope than they expected. “The outlook is pretty bright.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但避免衰退與美聯儲在去年年底時的情況相去甚遠，當時它正接近於從 COVID-19 疫情時代的高通脹中實現 “軟着陸”。經濟處於充分就業狀態，穩步高於趨勢增長，通脹有望降至美聯儲的 2% 目標，中央銀行預計將穩步降低借貸成本。“美國經濟表現非常好，” 鮑威爾在美聯儲 12 月 17-18 日的會議後表示，那次會議上，工作人員和官員剛開始思考貿易戰的影響，而這場貿易戰的範圍遠超他們的預期。“前景相當光明。”</p>
</div><p>It has dimmed since then. In projections issued this week, Fed policymakers’ median outlook for gross domestic product growth had fallen to 1.4%, well below trend, from the 2.1% projected in December, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from the current 4.2% to 4.5% by the end of the year. That would be the highest level, outside of the pandemic unemployment spike, since early 2017, when Trump’s first term was starting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自那以來前景已黯淡。在本週發佈的預測中，美聯儲政策制定者對國內生產總值增長的中位展望已降至 1.4%，遠低於去年 12 月預測的 2.1%，預計失業率將從當前的 4.2% 上升至年底的 4.5%。這將是自 2017 年初特朗普第一任期開始以來，除了疫情失業激增外的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Inflation that Powell said had been “grinding down” is now anticipated to rise to 3% this year and remain nearly half a percentage point above the Fed’s target through 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾表示，曾經 “逐漸下降” 的通脹現在預計在今年上升至 3%，並將在 2026 年前保持在美聯儲目標的近半個百分點以上。</p>
</div><p>The job market remains solid, Powell said, but he cautioned that assessment could change, and policymakers have said that their policy expectations could shift quickly if employment falters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾表示，勞動力市場依然穩健，但他警告説，這一評估可能會改變，政策制定者表示，如果就業情況惡化，他們的政策預期可能會迅速調整。</p>
</div><p>“Labor demand is softening,” Powell said. “There’s not a lot of layoffs, but there’s not a lot of job creation. If you’re out of work, it is hard to find a job … That is an equilibrium we watch very, very carefully because if there were to be significant layoffs and the job-finding rate were to remain this low, you would have an increase in unemployment fairly quickly.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾説：“勞動力需求正在減弱。裁員並不多，但工作創造也不多。如果你失業了，找到工作是很困難的……這是我們非常仔細關注的一個平衡，因為如果發生重大裁員，而找工作的比例仍然如此低，失業率將會很快上升。”</p>
</div><p>Graphic-The Fed rate outlook shifts higher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 美聯儲利率前景上調</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Fed views of 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 美聯儲對 2025 年的看法</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Rates and inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 利率與通脹</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png"/></p>

Trump's economic 'golden age' meets Fed's brass tacks

- 美聯儲預測經濟增長放緩，失業率和通脹上升。  
- 特朗普的關税政策影響經濟前景，導致利率下調計劃推遲。  
- 預計 2025 年 GDP 增長率降至 1.4%，失業率升至 4.5%。

特朗普的經濟 “黃金時代” 遭遇美聯儲的實際問題