<p>沃倫·巴菲特以在正確的時刻做出正確的投資決策而聞名，這幫助 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 在近 60 年內超越了市場。這位不隨波逐流的億萬富翁最近做出了一些引人注目的舉動，這可能會讓你想知道他是否知道一些華爾街不知道的事情。</p>
<p>答案是……是的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwMDUvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMS10bWYtMjAxNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwMDUvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMS10bWYtMjAxNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的可口可樂投資</h2>
<p>在深入細節之前，先簡單説明一下為什麼投資者常常向巴菲特尋求建議。作為董事長，他引導伯克希爾哈撒韋自 1965 年以來實現了近 20% 的年複合增長率，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 則僅增長了 10%。巴菲特通過投資於合理或甚至便宜估值的優質公司，並持有多年，達成了這一目標。他策略的完美例子是他在 1980 年代末決定購買 <strong>可口可樂</strong>(KO 1.39%)。</p>
<p>那時，可口可樂的價格合理，交易價格約為過去 12 個月收益的 20 倍。從那時起，巴菲特從該股票的表現和股息支付中獲得了巨大的收益。巴菲特表示，他從可口可樂獲得的股息從 1994 年最後一次購買股票時的 7500 萬美元增加到 2022 年的 7.04 億美元。自巴菲特開始購買以來，該股票的價格已經飆升了四位數。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png"/></p>
<p>KO 總回報價格數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>這一投資以及許多其他投資幫助巴菲特將伯克希爾哈撒韋的投資組合擴大到 2580 億美元，因此投資者想要了解巴菲特的下一步行動並可能跟隨他並不奇怪。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的近期舉動</h2>
<p>現在，讓我們回到巴菲特最近的引人注目的舉動。去年，巴菲特將他在 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.04%) 的頭寸減少了 67%，並在第四季度結束了他在追蹤標準普爾 500 的兩個基金中的頭寸——<strong>先鋒標準普爾 500 ETF</strong> 和 <strong>SPDR 標準普爾 500 ETF 信託</strong>。</p>
<p>這一切發生在整體市場飆升之際，標準普爾 500、<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 去年均實現了增長。</p>
<p>考慮到這一切，巴菲特究竟知道華爾街不知道什麼？巴菲特可能知道高估值會早晚趕上市場，這可能促使他鎖定一些來自其長期持有的蘋果的收益，甚至減少他對標準普爾 500 的敞口。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，標準普爾 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率去年飆升超過 36，這是自 1950 年代末標準普爾 500 作為 500 家公司基準推出以來僅發生過兩次的情況。Shiller CAPE 比率是一個可靠的估值工具，因為它衡量了 10 年期間的價格和每股收益，以平滑由各種市場條件引起的波動。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png"/></p>
<p>標準普爾 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，當華爾街的大多數人專注於市場的動能時，巴菲特可能在關注一些始終是他策略關鍵的東西：價格。隨着估值飆升，這位億萬富翁知道重大回調即將到來——他為此做好了準備。</p>
<h2>市場面臨的壓力</h2>
<p>巴菲特的舉動證明是明智的，因為指數只需要幾個不確定因素就將它們推入了今年早些時候的負值區域。特朗普總統對進口徵税的計劃引發了對經濟和企業收益影響的擔憂，而混合的經濟數據也加劇了這種擔憂。與此同時，蘋果的股票因擔心進口關税會影響增長而暴跌——該公司大部分 iPhone 在中國生產。</p>
<p>當然，巴菲特並沒有水晶球，因此他並不知道這些特定的問題會出現，但他可能知道任何逆風都會因估值水平而對市場造成挑戰。儘管估值有所下降，但仍未達到促使巴菲特在第一季度進行重大購買的水平。他最大的舉動包括增加對 <strong>康斯特 ellation Brands</strong> 和 <strong>Pool Corp</strong> 的現有頭寸。</p>
<p>那麼，你如何利用巴菲特的智慧來提升自己的投資組合呢？主要信息是避免以任何價格購買股票或僅僅因為指數上漲而急於進入市場。要跟隨巴菲特的腳步，考慮每隻股票的個體情況，關注特定公司的盈利實力和競爭優勢，一旦以合理的價格購買，就長期持有。每一項舉動都應幫助你在股票市場中隨着時間的推移最大化獲勝的潛力。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

可口可樂

<p>沃倫·巴菲特的投資策略在近 60 年中始終超越市場。最近，他將自己在蘋果公司的股份減少了 67%，並退出了兩個標準普爾 500 指數 ETF，這表明他預期由於高估值市場將出現回調。巴菲特的長期成功源於以合理的價格投資於優質公司，這一點在他對可口可樂的投資中得到了體現，該投資帶來了可觀的回報。投資者被鼓勵採取類似的方法，關注個別股票的基本面，而不是市場趨勢</p>

<p>Warren Buffett is known for generally making the right investing decisions at the right moment, and that's helped <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> beat the market for nearly 60 years. The billionaire, who doesn't follow the crowd, made a couple of standout moves in recent times, and this may prompt you to ask whether he knows something Wall Street doesn't.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特以在正確的時刻做出正確的投資決策而聞名，這幫助 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 在近 60 年內超越了市場。這位不隨波逐流的億萬富翁最近做出了一些引人注目的舉動，這可能會讓你想知道他是否知道一些華爾街不知道的事情。</p>
</div><p>The answer is... yes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答案是……是的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwMDUvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMS10bWYtMjAxNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823005%2Fwarren-buffett-1-tmf-2015.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's Coca-Cola investment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的可口可樂投資</h2>
</div><p>Before diving into the details, a quick note about why investors often look to Buffett for advice. As chairman, he's guided Berkshire Hathaway to a compounded annual gain of nearly 20% since 1965, and this is as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index delivered a 10% increase. Buffett's done this by investing in quality companies trading for reasonable or even bargain valuations and holding onto them for many years. A perfect example of his strategy is his decision to buy <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>(KO 1.39%) in the late 1980s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入細節之前，先簡單説明一下為什麼投資者常常向巴菲特尋求建議。作為董事長，他引導伯克希爾哈撒韋自 1965 年以來實現了近 20% 的年複合增長率，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 則僅增長了 10%。巴菲特通過投資於合理或甚至便宜估值的優質公司，並持有多年，達成了這一目標。他策略的完美例子是他在 1980 年代末決定購買 <strong>可口可樂</strong>(KO 1.39%)。</p>
</div><p>At that time, it was reasonably priced, trading for around 20x trailing-12-month earnings. Since then, Buffett has gained tremendously from the stock's performance and dividend payments. Buffett says his dividend from Coca-Cola increased from $75 million in 1994 when he last purchased the shares to $704 million in 2022. The stock has soared in the quadruple digits since the start of Buffett's purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那時，可口可樂的價格合理，交易價格約為過去 12 個月收益的 20 倍。從那時起，巴菲特從該股票的表現和股息支付中獲得了巨大的收益。巴菲特表示，他從可口可樂獲得的股息從 1994 年最後一次購買股票時的 7500 萬美元增加到 2022 年的 7.04 億美元。自巴菲特開始購買以來，該股票的價格已經飆升了四位數。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png"/></p>
<p>KO Total Return Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KO 總回報價格數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This and many other investments have helped Buffett grow the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio to $258 billion, so it's not surprising that investors want to know about Buffett's next steps -- and potentially follow them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一投資以及許多其他投資幫助巴菲特將伯克希爾哈撒韋的投資組合擴大到 2580 億美元，因此投資者想要了解巴菲特的下一步行動並可能跟隨他並不奇怪。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's recent moves</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的近期舉動</h2>
</div><p>Now, let's get back to Buffett's latest standout moves. The billionaire throughout last year reduced his position by 67% in his top holding, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.04%), and in the fourth quarter closed out his positions in two funds that track the S&amp;P 500 -- the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> and the <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，讓我們回到巴菲特最近的引人注目的舉動。去年，巴菲特將他在 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.04%) 的頭寸減少了 67%，並在第四季度結束了他在追蹤標準普爾 500 的兩個基金中的頭寸——<strong>先鋒標準普爾 500 ETF</strong> 和 <strong>SPDR 標準普爾 500 ETF 信託</strong>。</p>
</div><p>This happened as the overall market soared, with the S&amp;P 500, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, and the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> each posting a gain last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一切發生在整體市場飆升之際，標準普爾 500、<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 去年均實現了增長。</p>
</div><p>With all of this in mind, what exactly does Buffett know that Wall Street doesn't? Buffett likely knew that high valuations would catch up with the market sooner rather than later, and that could have prompted him to lock in some gains from his long-term holding, Apple, and even cut his exposure to the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這一切，巴菲特究竟知道華爾街不知道什麼？巴菲特可能知道高估值會早晚趕上市場，這可能促使他鎖定一些來自其長期持有的蘋果的收益，甚至減少他對標準普爾 500 的敞口。</p>
</div><p>It's important to note that the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio surged past the level of 36 last year, something it only did two other times since the late 1950s when the S&amp;P 500 launched as a 500-company benchmark. The Shiller CAPE ratio is a sound valuation tool since it measures price and earnings per share over a 10-year period to smooth out bumps caused by various market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，標準普爾 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率去年飆升超過 36，這是自 1950 年代末標準普爾 500 作為 500 家公司基準推出以來僅發生過兩次的情況。Shiller CAPE 比率是一個可靠的估值工具，因為它衡量了 10 年期間的價格和每股收益，以平滑由各種市場條件引起的波動。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So, while most of Wall Street focused on the market's momentum, Buffett might have been looking at something that, as mentioned, has always been key to his strategy: price. And as valuations soared, the billionaire knew a major pullback was ahead -- and he prepared for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，當華爾街的大多數人專注於市場的動能時，巴菲特可能在關注一些始終是他策略關鍵的東西：價格。隨着估值飆升，這位億萬富翁知道重大回調即將到來——他為此做好了準備。</p>
</div><h2>What's weighed on the market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場面臨的壓力</h2>
</div><p>Buffett's moves turned out to be wise, as indexes only needed a couple of uncertainties to push them into negative territory earlier this year. President Donald Trump's plan to tax imports stirred up concern about the impact on the economy and corporate earnings, and mixed economic data added to that. Meanwhile, Apple shares plummeted amid fears that import tariffs would hurt growth -- the company makes most of its iPhones in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的舉動證明是明智的，因為指數只需要幾個不確定因素就將它們推入了今年早些時候的負值區域。特朗普總統對進口徵税的計劃引發了對經濟和企業收益影響的擔憂，而混合的經濟數據也加劇了這種擔憂。與此同時，蘋果的股票因擔心進口關税會影響增長而暴跌——該公司大部分 iPhone 在中國生產。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Buffett doesn't have a crystal ball, so he didn't know that these particular troubles would arise, but he may have known that any headwind would prove challenging for the market due to the level of valuations. Though valuations have come down somewhat, they still aren't at levels that have prompted Buffett to make significant purchases in Q1. His biggest moves included adding to his current positions in <strong>Constellation Brands</strong> and <strong>Pool Corp</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，巴菲特並沒有水晶球，因此他並不知道這些特定的問題會出現，但他可能知道任何逆風都會因估值水平而對市場造成挑戰。儘管估值有所下降，但仍未達到促使巴菲特在第一季度進行重大購買的水平。他最大的舉動包括增加對 <strong>康斯特 ellation Brands</strong> 和 <strong>Pool Corp</strong> 的現有頭寸。</p>
</div><p>So, how can you use this Buffett wisdom to boost your own portfolio? The main message is avoid buying a stock for any price or rushing into the market just because indexes are rising. To follow in Buffett's footsteps, consider each stock individually, focus on the earnings strength and competitive advantages of the particular company, and once you buy at a reasonable price, hold on for the long term. Each of these moves should help you maximize your potential for a stock market victory over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，你如何利用巴菲特的智慧來提升自己的投資組合呢？主要信息是避免以任何價格購買股票或僅僅因為指數上漲而急於進入市場。要跟隨巴菲特的腳步，考慮每隻股票的個體情況，關注特定公司的盈利實力和競爭優勢，一旦以合理的價格購買，就長期持有。每一項舉動都應幫助你在股票市場中隨着時間的推移最大化獲勝的潛力。</p>
</div>

Does Warren Buffett Know Something Wall Street Doesn't?

- 巴菲特通過投資優質公司實現了近 60 年的市場超越。  
- 他最近減少了對蘋果的持股，並關閉了 S&P 500 的相關基金。  
- 這些舉動表明他預見到市場高估值將導致回調。  

沃倫·巴菲特是否知道一些華爾街所不知的事情？