<p>兩位美聯儲官員可能會對政策決定表示異議</p><p>儘管特朗普施壓，美聯儲可能會將政策利率維持在 4.25%-4.50% 區間</p><p>最近的數據表明消費者支出強勁，但住房和建築領域疲軟</p><p>7 月 28 日（路透社）——美國中央銀行在特朗普總統的惱怒下，可能會在本週的政策會議上維持利率不變，但這並不意味着不會進行激烈的辯論，可能會有一位或兩位美聯儲官員罕見地表示異議，支持降低借貸成本。然而，美聯儲大多數政策制定者仍然擔心特朗普的關税可能會抵消將通脹恢復到中央銀行 2% 目標的進展，目前對勞動力市場的擔憂則相對較小。上週美國與日本達成的貿易協議，關税設定為 15%，以及與歐盟談判中類似税率的進展，使得整體進口關税最終可能遠低於特朗普在 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 宣佈的懲罰性水平。儘管如此，美國的關税仍處於 90 年來的最高水平，其影響開始在家庭消費中顯現。傢俱和服裝等商品價格的激增推動了 6 月份整體消費者通脹年化率達到 3.5%。</p><p>在經歷了 40 年來的高通脹後，政策制定者擔心快速上漲的價格可能會讓家庭 “感到恐慌”，正如芝加哥聯儲主席奧斯坦·古爾斯比有時所説的那樣，可能引發更廣泛的通脹螺旋上升。</p><p>雖然美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示這只是眾多可能情景之一，但他認為中央銀行可以等待更多信息再調整利率，尤其是在失業率為 4.1%，接近或低於充分就業的估計水平時。</p><p>其他數據以及特朗普更廣泛的經濟計劃的前景，包括減税和放松管制，邀請了對中央銀行政策制定的不同看法。</p><p>“考慮到（美聯儲官員克里斯托弗）沃勒與（美聯儲副主席米歇爾）鮑曼及其他 FOMC 參與者之間在短期政策前景上的明顯分歧，我們預計沃勒和鮑曼都將支持 25 個基點的降息，” 野村證券的分析師寫道，該公司是預測自 1993 年以來美聯儲官員首次雙重異議的華爾街公司之一。沃勒和鮑曼都是特朗普任命的美聯儲理事，特朗普曾嚴厲批評鮑威爾抵制白宮要求立即降息的要求，並在鮑威爾任期到明年 5 月到期之前提出解僱美聯儲主席的想法。上週，在一次罕見但緊張的訪問美聯儲總部期間，特朗普再次強調了降低利率的必要性，儘管他也表示不認為有必要解僱鮑威爾。</p><p>沃勒被提及為鮑威爾的可能接班人，他認為私營部門的就業增長接近停滯速度，並擔心在缺乏更寬鬆信貸條件的情況下，公司可能會轉向裁員。私營部門的招聘僅佔 6 月份 147,000 個美國就業崗位增幅的一半，沃勒表示其他數據表明，即使是這一數據也高估了真實增長。鮑曼也對勞動力市場惡化表示擔憂，並認為可能需要降息以防止這種情況。</p><p>兩人都對關税會導致持續通脹持懷疑態度。</p><p>包括波士頓聯儲主席蘇珊·柯林斯在內的其他幾位官員也認為，最近温和的價格上漲表明關税可能不會像早先認為的那樣推高通脹。</p><h3 id="dpiwdo60a">創紀錄的經濟</h3><p>在預計於週三發佈的美聯儲政策聲明之前，商務部預計將報告經濟活動在第二季度重新加速，總產出在未調整通脹的情況下首次超過 30 萬億美元。這可能會增強特朗普的自誇權利，他聲稱如果美聯儲降息，美國經濟將像火箭一樣騰飛。</p><p>但中央銀行家將對此持更模糊的看法。預計的增長是在第一季度 GDP 因搶先應對特朗普對美國貿易伙伴的進口關税而出現歷史性下降之後的反彈。“雖然進口的急劇逆轉將機械性地推動第二季度 GDP 增長，但關税引發的成本壓力、持續的政策不確定性、嚴重限制的移民和高企的利率共同抑制了就業、商業投資和家庭消費，” 安永 - 帕森諾的首席經濟學家格雷戈裏·達科寫道。“美國經濟繼續在複雜的交叉潮流中航行，掩蓋了其潛在動能的清晰讀數。” 消費者支出佔經濟總產出的三分之二，表現相對強勁，上個月零售銷售增長超出預期。</p><p>儘管家庭銀行賬户餘額同比下降，但摩根大通研究所上週的數據表明，整體現金儲備狀況有所改善。</p><p>美聯儲數據顯示，向消費者和企業提供的銀行信貸較去年同期首次上升超過兩年。類似地，貸款量和需求自 5 月底開始上升，此前自年初以來增長緩慢或沒有增長，達拉斯聯儲的調查顯示，銀行家預計到今年年底經濟活動和信貸需求將增加。另一個跡象表明經濟並未衰退，美聯儲數據顯示製造業產出在上個季度增長，儘管年化增速為 2.1%，低於第一季度的 3.7%。企業資源利用率的一個指標在 6 月份從 5 月份的 77.5% 上升至 77.6%。儘管如此，商業投資可能正在減弱。週五的數據表明，排除飛機的非國防資本品訂單在 6 月份意外下降 0.7%，因為企業對支出變得更加謹慎。</p><p>其他數據指向經濟疲軟，增強了少數派對近期降息的論點。</p><p>就業增長放緩，招聘範圍縮小，僅由少數幾個服務行業主導。失業後找工作變得更加困難。領取失業救濟金的人中，有一半至少在失業名單上待了兩個月半。</p><p>住房和建築行業顯然處於劣勢，受到 30 年期固定利率抵押貸款接近 7% 的拖累。整體建築支出已連續九個月下降，這是自 2007-2009 年金融危機以來未曾見過的情況，而 6 月份新建單户住宅開工量為近一年來最低。新房和二手房的銷售依然疲軟。</p><p>“疲軟的住房需求是利率仍然限制的有力證據，勞動力市場疲軟和高不確定性等因素可能也在抑制需求，” 花旗經濟學家寫道。</p><p>圖表-30 萬億美元的經濟</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a69eea70821e26310858bb0296e211f7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1118" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a69eea70821e26310858bb0296e211f7"/></figure><p>圖表 - 美國招聘行業已縮小至更少的行業</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f5f18e26604f4e136554695db6cd3ea7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1734" height="998" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f5f18e26604f4e136554695db6cd3ea7"/></figure><p>圖表 - 美國建築支出承壓</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afa63a36eb04f4314e03b86cce5ef7e2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1018" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afa63a36eb04f4314e03b86cce5ef7e2"/></figure><p>圖表 - 貸款上升</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/72d3b27476e0da22010acba38cf5f5e2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1042" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/72d3b27476e0da22010acba38cf5f5e2"/></figure><p>圖表 - 家庭現金</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e7e64fc2a4935e0f641201281aa54fb?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1016" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e7e64fc2a4935e0f641201281aa54fb"/></figure>

<p>預計美聯儲將維持利率在 4.25%-4.50% 的區間，儘管面臨特朗普總統的壓力，且有兩位州長主張降息。最近的經濟數據表明消費者支出強勁，但住房和建築領域存在弱點。美聯儲對由於高關税帶來的通脹風險保持謹慎，而一些州長則對勞動力市場的惡化表示擔憂。即將發佈的 GDP 報告預計將顯示經濟增長，但整體經濟前景仍存在不確定性</p>

<p>Two Fed governors may dissent on policy decision</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩位美聯儲官員可能會對政策決定表示異議</p>
</div><p>Fed likely to leave policy rate in 4.25%-4.50% range despite Trump’s pressure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管特朗普施壓，美聯儲可能會將政策利率維持在 4.25%-4.50% 區間</p>
</div><p>Recent data showed strong consumer spending, weakness in housing and construction</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的數據表明消費者支出強勁，但住房和建築領域疲軟</p>
</div><p>July 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump’s chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting this week, but that’s not to say there won’t be a vigorous debate, with one if not two Federal Reserve governors possibly casting a rare dissent in support of lower borrowing costs. The majority of Fed policymakers, though, remain concerned that Trump’s tariffs could undo progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal, outweighing for now worries about the labor market. The trade deal struck between the U.S. and Japan last week, with tariffs set at 15%, and reported progress for a similar rate in talks with the European Union make it more likely that import duties overall will end up well below the punishing levels Trump announced on his April 2 “Liberation Day.” Even so, U.S. tariffs are at their highest level in 90 years, and the effects are starting to show up in household purchases. A surge in prices of goods like furnishings and apparel helped drive overall consumer inflation to an annualized 3.5% pace in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 28 日（路透社）——美國中央銀行在特朗普總統的惱怒下，可能會在本週的政策會議上維持利率不變，但這並不意味着不會進行激烈的辯論，可能會有一位或兩位美聯儲官員罕見地表示異議，支持降低借貸成本。然而，美聯儲大多數政策制定者仍然擔心特朗普的關税可能會抵消將通脹恢復到中央銀行 2% 目標的進展，目前對勞動力市場的擔憂則相對較小。上週美國與日本達成的貿易協議，關税設定為 15%，以及與歐盟談判中類似税率的進展，使得整體進口關税最終可能遠低於特朗普在 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 宣佈的懲罰性水平。儘管如此，美國的關税仍處於 90 年來的最高水平，其影響開始在家庭消費中顯現。傢俱和服裝等商品價格的激增推動了 6 月份整體消費者通脹年化率達到 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>So soon after a bout of 40-year-high inflation, policymakers fear fast-rising prices could “freak out” households, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sometimes phrases it, triggering a wider inflationary spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了 40 年來的高通脹後，政策制定者擔心快速上漲的價格可能會讓家庭 “感到恐慌”，正如芝加哥聯儲主席奧斯坦·古爾斯比有時所説的那樣，可能引發更廣泛的通脹螺旋上升。</p>
</div><p>While Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that is only one of many possible scenarios, he has argued the central bank can wait to learn more before adjusting rates, especially with a 4.1% unemployment rate near or below estimates of full employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示這只是眾多可能情景之一，但他認為中央銀行可以等待更多信息再調整利率，尤其是在失業率為 4.1%，接近或低於充分就業的估計水平時。</p>
</div><p>Other data and the outlook amid Trump’s broader economic program, including tax cuts and deregulation, invite differing views on the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他數據以及特朗普更廣泛的經濟計劃的前景，包括減税和放松管制，邀請了對中央銀行政策制定的不同看法。</p>
</div><p>“Considering the clear divergence in the near-term policy outlook between (Fed Governor Christopher) Waller and (Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle) Bowman and the other FOMC participants, we expect both Waller and Bowman to dissent in favor of a 25-bp (basis-point) cut,” wrote analysts at Nomura Securities, one of several Wall Street firms predicting the first double dissent from Fed governors since 1993. Both Waller and Bowman were appointed to the Board of Governors by Trump, who has excoriated Powell for resisting the White House’s demand for an immediate rate cut and broached the idea of firing the Fed chief before his term expires next May. Last week, during a rare but tense visit to the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, Trump once again pressed the case for lower rates, though he also said he didn’t think it was necessary to fire Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考慮到（美聯儲官員克里斯托弗）沃勒與（美聯儲副主席米歇爾）鮑曼及其他 FOMC 參與者之間在短期政策前景上的明顯分歧，我們預計沃勒和鮑曼都將支持 25 個基點的降息，” 野村證券的分析師寫道，該公司是預測自 1993 年以來美聯儲官員首次雙重異議的華爾街公司之一。沃勒和鮑曼都是特朗普任命的美聯儲理事，特朗普曾嚴厲批評鮑威爾抵制白宮要求立即降息的要求，並在鮑威爾任期到明年 5 月到期之前提出解僱美聯儲主席的想法。上週，在一次罕見但緊張的訪問美聯儲總部期間，特朗普再次強調了降低利率的必要性，儘管他也表示不認為有必要解僱鮑威爾。</p>
</div><p>Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Powell, sees private-sector job growth nearing stall speed and fears companies could turn to layoffs in the absence of easier credit conditions. Private-sector hiring accounted for just half of the gain of 147,000 U.S. jobs in June, and Waller says other data suggests even that reading overestimates the true increase. Bowman has also expressed worries about labor market deterioration and feels a rate cut may be needed to prevent it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃勒被提及為鮑威爾的可能接班人，他認為私營部門的就業增長接近停滯速度，並擔心在缺乏更寬鬆信貸條件的情況下，公司可能會轉向裁員。私營部門的招聘僅佔 6 月份 147,000 個美國就業崗位增幅的一半，沃勒表示其他數據表明，即使是這一數據也高估了真實增長。鮑曼也對勞動力市場惡化表示擔憂，並認為可能需要降息以防止這種情況。</p>
</div><p>Both are skeptical tariffs will lead to persistent inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩人都對關税會導致持續通脹持懷疑態度。</p>
</div><p>Several others, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, also see recent muted price increases as suggesting tariffs may not push up inflation as much as earlier thought.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括波士頓聯儲主席蘇珊·柯林斯在內的其他幾位官員也認為，最近温和的價格上漲表明關税可能不會像早先認為的那樣推高通脹。</p>
</div><h3>RECORD-BREAKING ECONOMY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>創紀錄的經濟</h3>
</div><p>Ahead of the scheduled release on Wednesday of the Fed’s policy statement, the Commerce Department is widely expected to report that economic activity reaccelerated in the second quarter, pushing total output above $30 trillion in non-inflation-adjusted terms for the first time. That may shore up Trump’s bragging rights to what he says is a U.S. economy that would take off like a rocket if only the Fed cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在預計於週三發佈的美聯儲政策聲明之前，商務部預計將報告經濟活動在第二季度重新加速，總產出在未調整通脹的情況下首次超過 30 萬億美元。這可能會增強特朗普的自誇權利，他聲稱如果美聯儲降息，美國經濟將像火箭一樣騰飛。</p>
</div><p>But central bankers will see it as more ambiguous. The expected increase follows a first-quarter drop in GDP from a historic rush to front-run Trump’s tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners. “While a sharp reversal in imports will mechanically boost Q2 GDP, tariff-induced cost pressures, persistent policy uncertainty, severely curtailed immigration, and elevated interest rates are collectively dampening employment, business investment and household consumption,” wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “The U.S. economy continues to navigate a complex set of cross-currents, obscuring a clear reading of its underlying momentum.” Consumer spending, accounting for two-thirds of economic output, has been reasonably strong, with retail sales rising more than expected last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但中央銀行家將對此持更模糊的看法。預計的增長是在第一季度 GDP 因搶先應對特朗普對美國貿易伙伴的進口關税而出現歷史性下降之後的反彈。“雖然進口的急劇逆轉將機械性地推動第二季度 GDP 增長，但關税引發的成本壓力、持續的政策不確定性、嚴重限制的移民和高企的利率共同抑制了就業、商業投資和家庭消費，” 安永 - 帕森諾的首席經濟學家格雷戈裏·達科寫道。“美國經濟繼續在複雜的交叉潮流中航行，掩蓋了其潛在動能的清晰讀數。” 消費者支出佔經濟總產出的三分之二，表現相對強勁，上個月零售銷售增長超出預期。</p>
</div><p>Though household bank account balances are lower on a year-over-year basis, data from the JPMorganChase Institute last week suggests overall cash reserves are in better shape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管家庭銀行賬户餘額同比下降，但摩根大通研究所上週的數據表明，整體現金儲備狀況有所改善。</p>
</div><p>Bank credit extended to consumers and businesses is up from the prior year for the first time in more than two years, Fed data shows. Similarly, loan volume and demand rose beginning in late May after sluggish or no growth since the year began, a Dallas Fed survey shows, and bankers expect increased economic activity and rising credit demand through the end of this year. In another sign the economy isn’t rolling over, Fed data shows manufacturing output grew last quarter, albeit by a slower 2.1% annualized pace than the first quarter’s 3.7% pace. A measure of how fully firms are using their resources edged up to 77.6% in June from 77.5% in May. Still, business investment may be faltering. Data on Friday showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft unexpectedly dropped 0.7% in June as firms grew more cautious about spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲數據顯示，向消費者和企業提供的銀行信貸較去年同期首次上升超過兩年。類似地，貸款量和需求自 5 月底開始上升，此前自年初以來增長緩慢或沒有增長，達拉斯聯儲的調查顯示，銀行家預計到今年年底經濟活動和信貸需求將增加。另一個跡象表明經濟並未衰退，美聯儲數據顯示製造業產出在上個季度增長，儘管年化增速為 2.1%，低於第一季度的 3.7%。企業資源利用率的一個指標在 6 月份從 5 月份的 77.5% 上升至 77.6%。儘管如此，商業投資可能正在減弱。週五的數據表明，排除飛機的非國防資本品訂單在 6 月份意外下降 0.7%，因為企業對支出變得更加謹慎。</p>
</div><p>Other data points to a weakening economy, bolstering the minority argument for rate cuts soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他數據指向經濟疲軟，增強了少數派對近期降息的論點。</p>
</div><p>Employment growth has slowed and hiring breadth is narrowing, led by just a few service-providing sectors. Finding a job after losing one is getting harder. Half of those collecting unemployment benefits remain on the jobless rolls for at least two-and-a-half months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業增長放緩，招聘範圍縮小，僅由少數幾個服務行業主導。失業後找工作變得更加困難。領取失業救濟金的人中，有一半至少在失業名單上待了兩個月半。</p>
</div><p>And the housing and construction sectors are clearly on the back foot, feeling the drag of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering near 7%. Overall construction spending has fallen for nine straight months - a streak unseen since the 2007-2009 financial crisis - and new single-family home starts were the lowest in nearly a year in June. Sales of new and existing homes remain anemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住房和建築行業顯然處於劣勢，受到 30 年期固定利率抵押貸款接近 7% 的拖累。整體建築支出已連續九個月下降，這是自 2007-2009 年金融危機以來未曾見過的情況，而 6 月份新建單户住宅開工量為近一年來最低。新房和二手房的銷售依然疲軟。</p>
</div><p>“Weak housing demand is convincing evidence that rates are still restrictive, with factors like a softening labor market and high uncertainty possibly also weighing on demand,” Citi economists wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“疲軟的住房需求是利率仍然限制的有力證據，勞動力市場疲軟和高不確定性等因素可能也在抑制需求，” 花旗經濟學家寫道。</p>
</div><p>Graphic-A $30 trillion economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表-30 萬億美元的經濟</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/814362aedb97c9578e968336272bb9c3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/814362aedb97c9578e968336272bb9c3"/></p>
<p>Graphic-U.S. hiring has narrowed to fewer industries</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 美國招聘行業已縮小至更少的行業</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afd9c72f246fa60143601bc85f42d9cf?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afd9c72f246fa60143601bc85f42d9cf"/></p>
<p>Graphic-U.S. construction spending under pressure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 美國建築支出承壓</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/320ba15adc00683cf98452f9cc8acc0f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/320ba15adc00683cf98452f9cc8acc0f"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Lending on the rise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 貸款上升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bf5068f95decd7f41789888b6e3867ce?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bf5068f95decd7f41789888b6e3867ce"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Household cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表 - 家庭現金</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ef666953f5fa3aa0df80f092a6959e2a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ef666953f5fa3aa0df80f092a6959e2a"/></p>

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged as it sifts through mixed economic data

- 美聯儲可能在政策會議上維持利率在 4.25%-4.50% 區間不變。  
- 兩位美聯儲官員可能會對降息表示異議，反映出政策分歧。  
- 消費支出強勁，但住房和建築領域疲軟，經濟前景複雜。  

美聯儲預計將維持利率不變，因為它正在分析混合的經濟數據