<p>最近發佈的美聯儲七月會議紀要確認，支持強硬通脹立場的官員仍然掌控局面，選擇維持利率不變，以監測關税對經濟的影響。</p>
<h2>更大的通脹風險推動鷹派立場？</h2>
<p>委員會大多數參與者認為，通脹的上行風險是其兩個主要風險中更大的一個。</p>
<p>這一鷹派立場出現在貿易政策的外部壓力繼續使經濟前景複雜化之際。根據一位分析師的説法，關税是使通脹成為中央銀行首要關注因素的主要因素。</p>
<p>“通脹仍然是美聯儲官員關注的焦點，因為關税仍然對經濟和通脹的上升構成風險，”<strong>Eric Teal</strong>，Comerica Wealth Management 的首席投資官表示。</p>
<p>Teal 指出，八月份進口的有效關税率上升至約 16%。這一情緒在美聯儲的內部討論中得到了反映，參與者觀察到 “去通脹似乎停滯不前，關税對商品價格通脹施加了上行壓力。”</p>
<h2>通脹風險超過失業風險</h2>
<p>將聯邦基金利率維持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的目標區間的決定並非一致通過，顯示出委員會內部日益加大的分歧。<strong>Michelle W. Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher J. Waller</strong> 兩位理事均投票反對該決定，傾向於將目標區間下調 25 個基點。</p>
<p>他們的立場與總統 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 最近的要求一致，後者在社交媒體上批評中央銀行損害了住房行業，堅稱 “沒有通脹”，並呼籲 “大幅降息”。</p>
<p>然而，多數意見佔了上風。<strong>Chris Zaccarelli</strong>，Northlight Asset Management 的首席投資官表示，會議紀要清楚地表明瞭美聯儲為何沒有降息。他説，這一決定是因為 “大多數官員認為更高通脹的風險超過了更高失業的風險。”</p>
<h2>所有目光聚焦傑克遜霍爾、八月 CPI 和九月美聯儲決策</h2>
<p>隨着七月決定的解釋，所有目光現在轉向美聯儲九月的下一次會議。</p>
<p>Zaccarelli 建議，主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 可能會在即將到來的傑克遜霍爾研討會上 “保持低調”，強調美聯儲仍然依賴數據，並需要在做出下一步行動之前查看關鍵的就業和通脹報告。</p>
<p>為期三天的經濟政策研討會將於 8 月 21 日星期四開始，並持續到 8 月 23 日。2025 年研討會的主題是 “轉型中的勞動市場：人口統計、生產力與宏觀經濟政策。”</p>
<p><strong>價格走勢</strong></p>
<p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分別跟蹤標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克 100 指數，週四在盤前交易中下跌。根據 Benzinga Pro 的數據，SPY 下跌 0.17%，報 637.03 美元，而 QQQ 下跌 0.088%，報 565.40 美元。</p>
<p><strong>下一步閲讀</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mohamed El-Erian 抨擊 ‘向後看’ 的 Powell，質疑美聯儲 2% 的通脹目標——‘太晚了’</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>免責聲明：</em></strong> <em>本內容部分由 AI 工具生成，並由 Benzinga 編輯審核和發佈。</em></p>
<p><em>來源：Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/ Imagn</em></p>

<p>美聯儲 7 月會議紀要顯示，鷹派官員將通脹控制置於優先地位，在關税擔憂加劇的情況下維持利率。分析師指出，有效關税已達到 16%，這增加了通脹風險。委員會內部出現分歧，一些成員主張降息，但大多數成員因通脹擔憂超過失業風險而傾向於維持利率不變。現在的關注點轉向即將召開的 9 月會議和關鍵經濟數據的發佈</p>

<p>Recently released minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting confirm that officials favoring a tough stance on inflation remain in control, opting to hold interest rates steady as they monitor the economic impact of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近發佈的美聯儲七月會議紀要確認，支持強硬通脹立場的官員仍然掌控局面，選擇維持利率不變，以監測關税對經濟的影響。</p>
</div><h2>Hawkish Stance Fueled By Greater Inflation Risks?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更大的通脹風險推動鷹派立場？</h2>
</div><p>A majority of the committee's participants judged that the upside risk to inflation was the greater of its two primary risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委員會大多數參與者認為，通脹的上行風險是其兩個主要風險中更大的一個。</p>
</div><p>This hawkish position comes as external pressures from trade policy continue to complicate the economic outlook. According to one analyst, tariffs are a primary factor keeping inflation a top-tier concern for the central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一鷹派立場出現在貿易政策的外部壓力繼續使經濟前景複雜化之際。根據一位分析師的説法，關税是使通脹成為中央銀行首要關注因素的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Inflation remains on the front burner for Fed officials as tariffs still pose a risk to the economy and a pickup in inflation,&#34; said <strong>Eric Teal</strong>, Chief Investment Officer for Comerica Wealth Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通脹仍然是美聯儲官員關注的焦點，因為關税仍然對經濟和通脹的上升構成風險，”<strong>Eric Teal</strong>，Comerica Wealth Management 的首席投資官表示。</p>
</div><p>Teal noted that the effective tariff rate on imports rose to about 16% in August. This sentiment is mirrored in the Fed's internal discussion, where participants observed that “disinflation appeared to have stalled, with tariffs putting upward pressure on goods price inflation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Teal 指出，八月份進口的有效關税率上升至約 16%。這一情緒在美聯儲的內部討論中得到了反映，參與者觀察到 “去通脹似乎停滯不前，關税對商品價格通脹施加了上行壓力。”</p>
</div><h2>Inflation Risk Outweighs Unemployment Risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通脹風險超過失業風險</h2>
</div><p>The decision to keep the federal funds rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% was not unanimous, revealing a growing split within the committee. Governors <strong>Michelle W. Bowman</strong> and <strong>Christopher J. Waller</strong> both voted against the decision, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將聯邦基金利率維持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的目標區間的決定並非一致通過，顯示出委員會內部日益加大的分歧。<strong>Michelle W. Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher J. Waller</strong> 兩位理事均投票反對該決定，傾向於將目標區間下調 25 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Their position aligns with recent demands from President <strong>Donald Trump</strong>, who has criticized the central bank on social media for hurting the housing industry, insisting that “There is no Inflation” and calling for a “major Rate Cut”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們的立場與總統 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 最近的要求一致，後者在社交媒體上批評中央銀行損害了住房行業，堅稱 “沒有通脹”，並呼籲 “大幅降息”。</p>
</div><p>However, the majority view prevailed. <strong>Chris Zaccarelli</strong>, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management, said the minutes clearly show why the Fed didn’t cut rates. The decision was made &#34;because the majority of officials thought the risk of higher inflation outweighed the risk of higher unemployment,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，多數意見佔了上風。<strong>Chris Zaccarelli</strong>，Northlight Asset Management 的首席投資官表示，會議紀要清楚地表明瞭美聯儲為何沒有降息。他説，這一決定是因為 “大多數官員認為更高通脹的風險超過了更高失業的風險。”</p>
</div><h2>All Eyes On Jackson Hole, August CPI, And September Fed Decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>所有目光聚焦傑克遜霍爾、八月 CPI 和九月美聯儲決策</h2>
</div><p>With the July decision explained, all eyes now turn to the Fed's next meeting in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着七月決定的解釋，所有目光現在轉向美聯儲九月的下一次會議。</p>
</div><p>Zaccarelli suggested that Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> is likely to “keep his cards close to his vest” at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, emphasizing that the Fed remains data dependent and will need to see key jobs and inflation reports before making its next move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zaccarelli 建議，主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 可能會在即將到來的傑克遜霍爾研討會上 “保持低調”，強調美聯儲仍然依賴數據，並需要在做出下一步行動之前查看關鍵的就業和通脹報告。</p>
</div><p>The three-day Economic Policy Symposium begins on Thursday, Aug. 21, and will go on till Aug. 23. The theme for the 2025 symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為期三天的經濟政策研討會將於 8 月 21 日星期四開始，並持續到 8 月 23 日。2025 年研討會的主題是 “轉型中的勞動市場：人口統計、生產力與宏觀經濟政策。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Price Action</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>價格走勢</strong></p>
</div><p>The <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ, which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was down 0.17% at $637.03, while the QQQ declined 0.088% to $565.40, according to Benzinga Pro data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分別跟蹤標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克 100 指數，週四在盤前交易中下跌。根據 Benzinga Pro 的數據，SPY 下跌 0.17%，報 637.03 美元，而 QQQ 下跌 0.088%，報 565.40 美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>下一步閲讀</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Mohamed El-Erian Slams ‘Backward-Looking’ Powell, Question’s Fed’s 2% Inflation Target—’Being Too Late’</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Mohamed El-Erian 抨擊 ‘向後看’ 的 Powell，質疑美聯儲 2% 的通脹目標——‘太晚了’</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免責聲明：</em></strong> <em>本內容部分由 AI 工具生成，並由 Benzinga 編輯審核和發佈。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/ Imagn</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/ Imagn</em></p>
</div>

Fed Minutes Reveal Hawkish Officials Still In Control: Economist Says 16% Effective Tariffs Put Inflation 'On The Front Burner'

- 美聯儲七月會議紀要顯示，官員們傾向於維持利率不變以監測關税影響。  
- 大多數委員會成員認為，通脹上行風險大於失業風險。  
- 關注即將召開的傑克遜霍爾研討會及九月的美聯儲決策。  

美聯儲紀要顯示鷹派官員仍然掌控局面：經濟學家表示，16% 的有效關税將通脹問題 ‘推到前台’