<p>在 8 月 22 日的傑克遜霍爾會議上，美聯儲主席鮑威爾維持利率不變，但提到 “可以考慮降息”。雖然表面上似乎沒有變化，但市場立即做出了反應。從美國 10 年期國債收益率來看，利率在講話前已經呈下降趨勢，但在他發言期間，從 <strong>4.31% → 4.25%</strong> 急劇下跌。</p>
<p>** 來源：TradingView 美國政府債券 10 年期收益率 8/22/25 **</p>
<p>這裏需要認識的關鍵點是，收益率下降意味着債券需求上升。債券收益率與債券價格呈反向移動。當機構大量購買國債時，價格上漲，收益率必須下降，因為票息保持不變。因此，收益率的急劇下降可以解讀為機構因預期降息而觸發的購買。這使得分析市場情緒和機構資金流動在這一事件中的重要性。</p>
<h2><strong>來自機構流動的線索</strong></h2>
<p>傑克遜霍爾會議前後國債的購買並非巧合。<strong>全球宏觀基金和對沖基金</strong> 率先行動。甚至在鮑威爾發言之前，他們已經擴大了長期國債頭寸，已經將降息預期納入考慮。CME FedWatch 數據證實了這一點：自 7 月就業報告發布以來，市場一直在持續定價 80% 以上的降息概率。</p>
<p><strong>地方機構（養老金、保險公司）</strong> 也參與其中，儘管更為謹慎。他們的購買可能是出於資產負債管理（ALM）的原因，以將負債與長期資產匹配。但結合降息預期，他們的購買以確保其頭寸進一步加大了收益率的下降。</p>
<p><strong>量化基金</strong> 在其模型檢測到收益率下降後，很可能緊隨其後，迅速轉向成長股指數期貨。這不僅僅是趨勢跟隨，而是將債券價格信號與股票行業輪動相聯繫的算法交易。因此，國債的反彈蔓延到了科技和半導體股票。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse ETF 圖表確認了成長股 ETF 的機構資金流入。</p>
<p>** 來源：TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 圖表 [QQQ, SPY, VOO] **</p>
<p>不過，仍需保持謹慎。機構流動並不保證長期方向。一些交易可能是對沖或回補空頭，這可能不會持續很長時間。對於散户投資者來説，最好將其視為對降息考慮的短期市場反應，直到正式的 9 月降息公告。</p>
<p>總之，傑克遜霍爾會議並沒有改變政策，但將市場轉移到了 “降息信念區”。機構首先通過國債行動，股票（特別是以成長股為基礎的 ETF）隨之而來。對於散户投資者來説，關鍵的收穫是與機構流動保持一致，但要管理風險，並在不確定事件之前分批進入。</p>
<h2><strong>宏觀與流動：機構支持的利率策略</strong></h2>
<p><em><strong>國債收益率作為領先指標</strong></em> 10 年期收益率是衡量 “機構情緒” 的最相關方式。請注意，收益率在鮑威爾發言之前就已經在變化。這是養老金和宏觀基金的預期佈局的證據。對於散户投資者來説，在美聯儲事件之前監測國債收益率提供了市場在公告後可能走向的路線圖。</p>
<p>如果收益率在事件之前穩步下降，這表明機構購買勢頭和成長股反彈的更高概率，而平穩或反彈的收益率則表明降息預期較弱以及短期股票修正的風險。這一框架不僅適用於債券，也適用於股票、外匯和商品。</p>
<p><em><strong>機構增加對成長股的敞口</strong></em> 在降息週期中，利率敏感的行業如大型科技、人工智能和半導體往往受益最大。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse 數據顯示，機構流入以成長為重點的 ETF，反映出旨在防禦性平衡機構的上行捕獲的策略。這種基於流動的決策是散户投資者可以積極監測和對齊的。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性編輯。</em></strong></p>

<p>在傑克遜霍爾會議上，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示可能會降息，導致美國 10 年期國債收益率從 4.31% 降至 4.25%。這一下降表明債券需求增加，因為機構投資者預期降息，開始購買國債。全球宏觀基金和對沖基金擴大了多頭頭寸，而地方機構則採取了防禦性參與。隨之而來的國債反彈影響了科技和半導體股票。散户投資者應與機構資金流動保持一致，同時管理風險，因為市場正轉向 “降息信念區”。在美聯儲公告之前，監測國債收益率可以指導投資策略</p>

<p>At the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, Fed Chair Powell held rates steady but mentioned that &#34;rate cuts could be considered.&#34; While there appeared to be no change on the surface, markets reacted instantly. As seen in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the rate had already been trending lower before the speech, but during his remarks it plunged from <strong>4.31% → 4.25%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月 22 日的傑克遜霍爾會議上，美聯儲主席鮑威爾維持利率不變，但提到 “可以考慮降息”。雖然表面上似乎沒有變化，但市場立即做出了反應。從美國 10 年期國債收益率來看，利率在講話前已經呈下降趨勢，但在他發言期間，從 <strong>4.31% → 4.25%</strong> 急劇下跌。</p>
</div><p>** Source : TradingView US Gov Bond 10yr yield 8/22/25**</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>** 來源：TradingView 美國政府債券 10 年期收益率 8/22/25 **</p>
</div><p>The key point here to recognize is that falling yields equals rising bond demand. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When institutions buy Treasuries in bulk, prices go up, and yields must fall since the coupon stays the same. Thus, the sharp drop can be interpreted as institutional buying triggered by expectations of rate cuts. That makes it essential to analyze both market sentiment and institutional flows around this event.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏需要認識的關鍵點是，收益率下降意味着債券需求上升。債券收益率與債券價格呈反向移動。當機構大量購買國債時，價格上漲，收益率必須下降，因為票息保持不變。因此，收益率的急劇下降可以解讀為機構因預期降息而觸發的購買。這使得分析市場情緒和機構資金流動在這一事件中的重要性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Clues from Institutional Flows</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>來自機構流動的線索</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Treasury buying before and after Jackson Hole meeting wasn't a coincidence. <strong>Global macro funds and hedge funds</strong> moved first. Even before Powell's speech, they had already expanded long Treasury positions, having priced in rate-cut expectations. CME FedWatch data confirms this: Markets had been consistently pricing in an 80%+ probability of cuts ever since the July employment report was released</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傑克遜霍爾會議前後國債的購買並非巧合。<strong>全球宏觀基金和對沖基金</strong> 率先行動。甚至在鮑威爾發言之前，他們已經擴大了長期國債頭寸，已經將降息預期納入考慮。CME FedWatch 數據證實了這一點：自 7 月就業報告發布以來，市場一直在持續定價 80% 以上的降息概率。</p>
</div><p><strong>Local institutions (pensions, insurers)</strong> also joined in, though more defensively. Their purchases were likely for ALM (asset-liability management) reasons to match liabilities with longer-duration assets. But when combined with rate-cut expectations, their buying to secure their position amplified the yield drop</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>地方機構（養老金、保險公司）</strong> 也參與其中，儘管更為謹慎。他們的購買可能是出於資產負債管理（ALM）的原因，以將負債與長期資產匹配。但結合降息預期，他們的購買以確保其頭寸進一步加大了收益率的下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Quant funds</strong> most likely followed once their models detected falling yields, promptly pivoting into growth stock index futures. This wasn't just trend-following but algorithmic trading that links bond price signals with equity sector rotations. As a result, the Treasury rally spilled over into tech and semiconductor stocks. TradePulse ETF charts from August 22 confirm institutional inflows across growth-stock ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>量化基金</strong> 在其模型檢測到收益率下降後，很可能緊隨其後，迅速轉向成長股指數期貨。這不僅僅是趨勢跟隨，而是將債券價格信號與股票行業輪動相聯繫的算法交易。因此，國債的反彈蔓延到了科技和半導體股票。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse ETF 圖表確認了成長股 ETF 的機構資金流入。</p>
</div><p>** Source : TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 chart[QQQ, SPY, VOO] **</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>** 來源：TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 圖表 [QQQ, SPY, VOO] **</p>
</div><p>Still, caution is warranted. Institutional flows don't guarantee long-term direction. Some trades may be hedges or short-covering which may not last long term. For retail investors, it's better to treat it as short term market reaction to the consideration for rate cuts until the official September rate-cut announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，仍需保持謹慎。機構流動並不保證長期方向。一些交易可能是對沖或回補空頭，這可能不會持續很長時間。對於散户投資者來説，最好將其視為對降息考慮的短期市場反應，直到正式的 9 月降息公告。</p>
</div><p>In short, Jackson Hole meeting didn't change policy, but it shifted the market into a &#34;rate-cut conviction zone.&#34; Institutions moved first via Treasuries, and equities(particularly growth stocks backed ETFs) followed. For retail investors, the key takeaway is to align with institutional flows, but with managed risk, and staggered entries ahead of uncertain events.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，傑克遜霍爾會議並沒有改變政策，但將市場轉移到了 “降息信念區”。機構首先通過國債行動，股票（特別是以成長股為基礎的 ETF）隨之而來。對於散户投資者來説，關鍵的收穫是與機構流動保持一致，但要管理風險，並在不確定事件之前分批進入。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Macro Meets Flows: A Rate Strategy Backed by Institutions</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏觀與流動：機構支持的利率策略</strong></h2>
</div><p><em><strong>Treasury yields as a leading indicator</strong></em> The 10-year yield is the most relevant way to gauge &#34;institutional sentiment&#34;. Note that yields were moving before Powell even spoke. Evidence of anticipatory positioning by pensions, and macro funds. For retail investors, monitoring Treasury yields before Fed events provides a roadmap of where markets might head post-announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>國債收益率作為領先指標</strong></em> 10 年期收益率是衡量 “機構情緒” 的最相關方式。請注意，收益率在鮑威爾發言之前就已經在變化。這是養老金和宏觀基金的預期佈局的證據。對於散户投資者來説，在美聯儲事件之前監測國債收益率提供了市場在公告後可能走向的路線圖。</p>
</div><p>If yields fall steadily before an event, it signals institutional buying momentum and a higher probability of a growth-stock rally, whereas flat or rebounding yields suggest weaker rate-cut expectations and the risk of a short-term equity correction. A framework that applies not only to bonds but also to equities, FX, and commodities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果收益率在事件之前穩步下降，這表明機構購買勢頭和成長股反彈的更高概率，而平穩或反彈的收益率則表明降息預期較弱以及短期股票修正的風險。這一框架不僅適用於債券，也適用於股票、外匯和商品。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Institutions increasing exposure to growth stocks</strong></em> In a rate-cut cycle, rate-sensitive sectors such as Big Tech, AI, and semiconductors tend to benefit the most. TradePulse data from August 22 shows institutional inflows into growth-focused ETFs, reflecting strategies designed to balance defensively against upside capture from the institutions. This flow based decision making is something that retail investors can actively monitor and align with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>機構增加對成長股的敞口</strong></em> 在降息週期中，利率敏感的行業如大型科技、人工智能和半導體往往受益最大。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse 數據顯示，機構流入以成長為重點的 ETF，反映出旨在防禦性平衡機構的上行捕獲的策略。這種基於流動的決策是散户投資者可以積極監測和對齊的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自未付費的外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性編輯。</em></strong></p>
</div>

After the Jackson Hole Meeting: What US Treasuries Bonds And Institutional Flows Are Telling Us

- 美聯儲主席鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾會議上維持利率不變，暗示可能考慮降息。  
- 會議後，10 年期國債收益率從 4.31% 降至 4.25%，顯示機構買入預期。  
- 投資者應關注國債收益率變化，以把握市場動向和風險管理。  

傑克遜霍爾會議後：美國國債和機構資金流動透露了哪些信息