<p>沒有哪家公司比半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.96%) 更加受益於人工智能（AI）熱潮。如果你在 ChatGPT 發佈的那天（2022 年 11 月 30 日）投資了這家芯片製造商並持有至今，你的投資價值今天大約是原來的 10 倍。</p>
<p>在過去幾年中，包括 <strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Oracle</strong> 在內的科技巨頭們在其與 AI 相關的基礎設施上投入了數千億美元的資本支出，其中相當大的一部分用於為數據中心配備 Nvidia 的行業領先芯片。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="507" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 資本支出（TTM）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>這種前所未有的需求使得 Nvidia 的市值從 AI 革命初期的約 3450 億美元飆升至今天的超過 4 萬億美元。</p>
<p>在如此巨大的漲幅之後，自然會有人想知道 Nvidia 股票的最佳時光是否已經過去。畢竟，一隻飆升至如此高度的股票怎麼可能繼續上漲呢？</p>
<p>然而，就在懷疑者開始呼籲見頂之際，Nvidia 的管理層已採取措施，通過 600 億美元的承諾來支持股票的走勢。</p>
<p>對我來説，問題不在於 Nvidia 是否已經達到頂峯，而在於這個全球最有價值的公司是否才剛剛起步。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票是否被高估？</h2>
<p>Nvidia 的交易價格與其三年平均市銷率（P/S）相符，且顯著低於其在 AI 熱潮初期達到的峯值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，與之前 AI 狂熱時期的水平相比，Nvidia 股票可能看起來 “便宜”。不過，這種所謂的折扣是相對的。在 1990 年代末的互聯網泡沫期間，許多高飛股票的市銷率達到了 30 到 40 的倍數。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE 比率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>乍一看，Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）倍數似乎與其歷史平均水平和過去幾年的峯值相比大幅折扣。需要指出的細微差別是，AI 趨勢導致了 Nvidia 盈利能力的爆炸性增長。這意味着其市盈率中的分母（收益）大幅擴大。換句話説，Nvidia 當前的市盈率為 49 反映的是正常化的盈利能力，而不是投資者突然以較低的增長倍數來評估公司。</p>
<p>從絕對角度來看，Nvidia 的估值要求較高。但對於那些試圖判斷股票是否真的被高估的投資者來説，管理層的最新公告可能提供了一些見解。</p>
<h2>600 億（更多）理由關注 Nvidia</h2>
<p>在今年上半年，Nvidia 回購了 1.93 億股普通股，花費了 242 億美元。此外，在 8 月底的第二季度財報電話會議上，管理層公佈了一個更引人注目的舉措：董事會批准了額外的 600 億美元股票回購計劃。</p>
<p>這樣的回購通常被解讀為信心的投票。它們通常表明管理層相信公司的現金流是可持續的，並且回購自家股票是資本的最佳使用之一。但在 Nvidia 的情況下，可能還有更具戰略性的層面在發揮作用。</p>
<p>在過去幾年中，Nvidia 的增長敍事主要基於其芯片用於訓練大型語言模型（LLMs）和其他生成性 AI 工具。然而，展望未來，真正的上行空間將來自於它們在更先進應用中的使用，如機器人技術、量子計算和自主系統——每一個都代表着潛在的萬億市場。這些應用場景將需要更多的計算能力，這可能意味着 Nvidia 的下一代芯片架構。</p>
<p>雖然公司繼 Blackwell 之後的繼任者 Rubin 預計將在明年發貨，但 Nvidia 下一次大規模反彈的關鍵在於時機。</p>
<p>在這些新的複雜應用場景推動足夠的銷售以實質性改變 Nvidia 盈利能力的情況下，可能需要五到十年。在此期間，公司的增長可能會繼續——儘管速度較慢。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼新的股票回購計劃顯得特別聰明。通過在未來幾年內積極減少流通股數量，Nvidia 可以在 AI 敍事的過渡階段增強每股收益（EPS）的增長。實際上，新的回購計劃充當了一座橋樑——在 AI 時代的基礎設施浪潮在後台擴展的同時，保持 EPS 動能在短期內強勁。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODkwNjcwMi00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODkwNjcwMi00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>總的來説，Nvidia 處於一個有利的位置，可以從超大規模企業的 AI 基礎設施支出中獲得豐厚收益。同時，公司通過股票回購返還資本的能力突顯了其現金生成的強勁、管理層對回報股東的承諾，以及公司認為其股票仍然適當定價的觀點。</p>
<p>綜合來看，這些動態強調了我為何將 Nvidia 視為一個引人注目的買入和持有機會。隨着結構性增長驅動因素和以股東為中心的資本配置在其戰略路線圖的前沿，Nvidia 股票在 AI 領域仍然是一個不容錯過的機會。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>由於人工智能的繁榮，英偉達的市值從 3450 億美元飆升至超過 4 萬億美元，科技巨頭對其芯片進行了大量投資。儘管市場對高估值存在擔憂，英偉達的股票以 49 的正常市盈率交易，反映出強勁的盈利增長。該公司宣佈了一項 600 億美元的股票回購計劃，表明對可持續現金流的信心，並旨在在過渡階段提升每股收益增長。英偉達在持續的人工智能基礎設施支出中處於有利位置，未來的增長預計將來自機器人技術和量子計算等先進應用</p>

<p>No company has benefited more from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom than semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.96%). If you had invested in the chipmaker on the day that ChatGPT launched (Nov. 30, 2022) and held on, your stake today would be worth roughly 10 times as much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有哪家公司比半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.96%) 更加受益於人工智能（AI）熱潮。如果你在 ChatGPT 發佈的那天（2022 年 11 月 30 日）投資了這家芯片製造商並持有至今，你的投資價值今天大約是原來的 10 倍。</p>
</div><p>Over the last few years, tech giants including <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Oracle</strong> have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures into their AI-related infrastructure -- a significant fraction of which has gone toward equipping data centers with Nvidia's industry-leading chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，包括 <strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Oracle</strong> 在內的科技巨頭們在其與 AI 相關的基礎設施上投入了數千億美元的資本支出，其中相當大的一部分用於為數據中心配備 Nvidia 的行業領先芯片。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 資本支出（TTM）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This unprecedented demand has propelled Nvidia's market value from about $345 billion at the dawn of the AI revolution to more than $4 trillion today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種前所未有的需求使得 Nvidia 的市值從 AI 革命初期的約 3450 億美元飆升至今天的超過 4 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>After gains of this magnitude, it's natural to wonder if the best days for Nvidia stock are already in the rear-view mirror. After all, how could a stock that has skyrocketed to such a height keep climbing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此巨大的漲幅之後，自然會有人想知道 Nvidia 股票的最佳時光是否已經過去。畢竟，一隻飆升至如此高度的股票怎麼可能繼續上漲呢？</p>
</div><p>Yet just as skeptics are beginning to call a top, Nvidia's management has moved to support the stock's trajectory with a $60 billion commitment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，就在懷疑者開始呼籲見頂之際，Nvidia 的管理層已採取措施，通過 600 億美元的承諾來支持股票的走勢。</p>
</div><p>To me, the question isn't whether Nvidia has peaked, but whether the world's most valuable company is just getting started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，問題不在於 Nvidia 是否已經達到頂峯，而在於這個全球最有價值的公司是否才剛剛起步。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock overvalued?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票是否被高估？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia is trading in line with its three-year average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio and significantly below the peak it hit during the early days of the AI boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的交易價格與其三年平均市銷率（P/S）相符，且顯著低於其在 AI 熱潮初期達到的峯值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So Nvidia stock may appear &#34;cheap&#34; compared to where it stood during prior periods of AI euphoria. That said, the so-called discount is relative. During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, many high-flying stocks peaked at P/S multiples in the 30 to 40 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，與之前 AI 狂熱時期的水平相比，Nvidia 股票可能看起來 “便宜”。不過，這種所謂的折扣是相對的。在 1990 年代末的互聯網泡沫期間，許多高飛股票的市銷率達到了 30 到 40 的倍數。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PE 比率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>At first glance, Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple looks deeply discounted to both its historical average and its peak levels over the last few years. The nuance to point out here is that the AI trend has led to explosive growth in Nvidia's profitability. This means that the denominator in its P/E ratio (earnings) has expanded dramatically. In other words, Nvidia's current P/E of 49 reflects normalized profitability rather than investors suddenly valuing the company at a less aggressive growth multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）倍數似乎與其歷史平均水平和過去幾年的峯值相比大幅折扣。需要指出的細微差別是，AI 趨勢導致了 Nvidia 盈利能力的爆炸性增長。這意味着其市盈率中的分母（收益）大幅擴大。換句話説，Nvidia 當前的市盈率為 49 反映的是正常化的盈利能力，而不是投資者突然以較低的增長倍數來評估公司。</p>
</div><p>On an absolute basis, Nvidia's valuation is demanding. But for investors who are trying to determine whether the shares are truly overvalued, management's latest announcement may offer some insight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從絕對角度來看，Nvidia 的估值要求較高。但對於那些試圖判斷股票是否真的被高估的投資者來説，管理層的最新公告可能提供了一些見解。</p>
</div><h2>60 billion (more) reasons to pay attention to Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>600 億（更多）理由關注 Nvidia</h2>
</div><p>During the first half of the year, Nvidia repurchased 193 million shares of its common stock for $24.2 billion. Moreover, on its second-quarter earnings call in late August, management unveiled an even more striking move: The board of directors approved an additional $60 billion stock buyback program.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年上半年，Nvidia 回購了 1.93 億股普通股，花費了 242 億美元。此外，在 8 月底的第二季度財報電話會議上，管理層公佈了一個更引人注目的舉措：董事會批准了額外的 600 億美元股票回購計劃。</p>
</div><p>Such buybacks are often interpreted as a vote of confidence. They typically signal that management believes that a company's cash flows are sustainable and that repurchasing its own stock is one of the best uses of capital. But in Nvidia's case, there may be a more strategic layer at play here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這樣的回購通常被解讀為信心的投票。它們通常表明管理層相信公司的現金流是可持續的，並且回購自家股票是資本的最佳使用之一。但在 Nvidia 的情況下，可能還有更具戰略性的層面在發揮作用。</p>
</div><p>For much of the last few years, Nvidia's growth narrative has been anchored on its chips being used for the training of large language models (LLMs) and other generative AI tools. Looking ahead, however, the real upside will stem from their use in more advanced applications, such as robotics, quantum computing, and autonomous systems -- each of which represents a potential trillion-dollar market. These use cases will require more computing power, which will likely mean next-generation chip architectures from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，Nvidia 的增長敍事主要基於其芯片用於訓練大型語言模型（LLMs）和其他生成性 AI 工具。然而，展望未來，真正的上行空間將來自於它們在更先進應用中的使用，如機器人技術、量子計算和自主系統——每一個都代表着潛在的萬億市場。這些應用場景將需要更多的計算能力，這可能意味着 Nvidia 的下一代芯片架構。</p>
</div><p>While the company's successor to Blackwell, dubbed Rubin, is expected to ship next year, the catch with Nvidia's next massive rally will come down to timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然公司繼 Blackwell 之後的繼任者 Rubin 預計將在明年發貨，但 Nvidia 下一次大規模反彈的關鍵在於時機。</p>
</div><p>It could be five to 10 years before these new, sophisticated use cases are driving enough sales to materially transform Nvidia's profitability profile. In the interim, the company's growth will likely continue -- albeit at a slower pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這些新的複雜應用場景推動足夠的銷售以實質性改變 Nvidia 盈利能力的情況下，可能需要五到十年。在此期間，公司的增長可能會繼續——儘管速度較慢。</p>
</div><p>This is why the new stock buyback program looks particularly savvy. By aggressively reducing its outstanding share count over the next few years, Nvidia can bolster its earnings per share (EPS) growth during this transitional phase of the AI narrative. In effect, the new buyback program acts as a bridge -- keeping EPS momentum robust in the near term while the infrastructure wave of the AI era scales up in the background.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼新的股票回購計劃顯得特別聰明。通過在未來幾年內積極減少流通股數量，Nvidia 可以在 AI 敍事的過渡階段增強每股收益（EPS）的增長。實際上，新的回購計劃充當了一座橋樑——在 AI 時代的基礎設施浪潮在後台擴展的同時，保持 EPS 動能在短期內強勁。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODkwNjcwMi00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831812%2Fgettyimages-1158906702-4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>All told, Nvidia is positioned to benefit handsomely from the secular tailwinds of AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers. At the same time, the company's ability to return capital through stock buybacks highlights the strength of its cash generation, management's commitment to rewarding shareholders, and the company's view that its stock remains appropriately priced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，Nvidia 處於一個有利的位置，可以從超大規模企業的 AI 基礎設施支出中獲得豐厚收益。同時，公司通過股票回購返還資本的能力突顯了其現金生成的強勁、管理層對回報股東的承諾，以及公司認為其股票仍然適當定價的觀點。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these dynamics underscore why I see Nvidia as a compelling opportunity to buy and hold. With structural growth drivers and shareholder-friendly capital allocation at the forefront of its strategic roadmap, the stock remains a no-brainer opportunity in the AI realm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，這些動態強調了我為何將 Nvidia 視為一個引人注目的買入和持有機會。隨着結構性增長驅動因素和以股東為中心的資本配置在其戰略路線圖的前沿，Nvidia 股票在 AI 領域仍然是一個不容錯過的機會。</p>
</div>

Think Nvidia Stock Is Too Expensive? Here Are 60 Billion Reasons to Consider Changing Your Mind

- 英偉達因人工智能熱潮市值從 3450 億美元增至 4 萬億美元。  
- 公司宣佈 600 億美元股票回購計劃，顯示管理層對未來增長的信心。  
- 英偉達在 AI 基礎設施支出中受益，未來增長潛力巨大。  

覺得英偉達的股票價格過高？這裏有 600 億個理由讓你重新考慮