<p>（重複週五首次發佈的故事）</p>
<p>投資者預計本月美聯儲會議上有可能降息半個百分點</p>
<p>美國 8 月份就業增長遠低於預期</p>
<p>報告發布後股市波動，美元下滑</p>
<p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf 和 Davide Barbuscia</p>
<p>紐約，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在一份意外疲軟的美國就業報告顯示經濟放緩後，投資者認為需要加快貨幣寬鬆，包括本月降息的可能性增加。在週五的就業報告發布之前，投資者已經普遍預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的會議上將基準利率下調 25 個基點，這是九個月以來的首次降息。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上個月的講話為這樣的降息奠定了基礎，指出了勞動力市場的風險。</p>
<p>但在數據顯示美國 8 月份新增就業崗位僅為 22,000 個，遠低於預期後，市場定價開始為可能的更大幅度的降息（半個百分點）留出空間，同時預計整體寬鬆將持續到 2025 年。</p>
<p>“這是連續兩份令人失望的就業報告，確實表明經濟正在減弱，” Cresset Capital 的創始合夥人兼首席投資官 Jack Ablin 表示。“如果將此與鮑威爾主席偏向於充分就業而非價格穩定的立場結合起來，這確實暗示美聯儲可能會採取比最初計劃更大的行動。”</p>
<p>近期低利率的前景一直支撐着股市，但在週五的報告發布後，股市出現波動。數據發佈後，股指期貨最初上漲，隨後轉為下跌。基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）最後下跌 0.5%。</p>
<p>“如果投資者關注美聯儲的政策削減，那麼這可能會支持股市，” Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投資官 Jim Baird 表示。</p>
<p>“如果投資者將其視為勞動力狀況和失業率進一步惡化的前兆，可能會導致經濟進一步放緩，那對股市來説就不是好消息。”</p>
<p>投資者紛紛湧入美國國債，導致短期和長期收益率均下滑。基準美國 10 年期國債收益率降至 4.06%，為約五個月來的最低水平。同時，在外匯市場上，加速降息的前景使美元指數（.DXY）跌至近六週低點。</p>
<p>“我們發現 G10 外匯市場的前端名義收益率正在交易。這就是為什麼在就業數據低於預期後，美元下跌，” 宏觀研究和戰略公司 Macro Hive 的研究員 Benjamin Ford 表示。</p>
<p>截至週五下午，美聯儲基金期貨顯示本月降息 50 個基點的概率為 10%，而降息 25 個基點的概率為 90%，根據 LSEG 的數據。</p>
<p>當美聯儲在 2024 年 9 月開始降息週期時，中央銀行以半個百分點的降息開始，US Bank 的投資級銷售和交易負責人 Blair Shwedo 指出。</p>
<p>“所以我想市場正在回顧這一點，並意識到美聯儲並不害怕以更激進的 50 個基點降息開始，” Shwedo 説。</p>
<p>Siebert Financial 的首席投資官 Mark Malek 表示，50 個基點的降息 “將為（股市）提供順風”。</p>
<p>“這無疑會對大型成長股形成提振，併為投資者承擔更多風險提供綠燈，” Malek 表示。</p>
<p>50 個基點的降息可能導致國債曲線前端的空頭頭寸 “投降”，這可能加劇債市的波動，Crown Agents Investment Management 的固定收益負責人 Slawomir Soroczynski 表示。更激進的寬鬆前景也可能進一步加劇對通脹的擔憂。目前的通脹率仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標，鮑威爾和其他美聯儲官員一直擔心特朗普總統的關税可能導致價格上漲。</p>
<p>“鮑威爾的擔憂是，關税的不確定性仍然存在，他知道從通脹的角度來看，風險情緒的上升肯定會推動資產價格通脹，” Penn Mutual Asset Management 的投資組合經理 George Cipolloni 表示。“現在這是否會推動消費者價格通脹？這就是拉鋸戰。”</p>
<p>並不是所有人都相信在就業數據發佈後會有大幅降息。8 月份是一個 “嘈雜的月份”，數據往往會被向上修正，Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management 的首席執行官 Phil Blancato 表示。</p>
<p>在美聯儲會議之前，還會有更多數據發佈，特別是下週四的 8 月份消費者物價指數報告，將提供關於通脹趨勢的另一個解讀。</p>
<p>“通脹仍然是一個主要問題，並未因經濟增長放緩而得到遏制，” Simcorp 的投資決策研究董事總經理 Melissa Brown 表示。</p>
<p>即時觀點：美國 8 月份就業增長急劇放緩，失業率小幅上升 這裏</p>

<p>投資者預計在一份疲弱的就業報告發布後，美國將採取更激進的降息措施，該報告顯示 8 月份僅新增 22,000 個就業崗位。這增加了美聯儲即將召開的會議上降息半個百分點的可能性。儘管降息前景支撐了股票市場，但市場反應卻喜憂參半，標準普爾 500 指數下跌了 0.5%。由於投資者轉向美國國債，美元指數也跌至近六週低點。關於通脹的擔憂依然存在，給美聯儲的決策過程帶來了複雜性</p>

<p>(Repeats story first published on Friday)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重複週五首次發佈的故事）</p>
</div><p>Investors anticipate chance of half-point cut at Fed meeting later in month</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者預計本月美聯儲會議上有可能降息半個百分點</p>
</div><p>US job growth in August comes in much weaker than expected</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國 8 月份就業增長遠低於預期</p>
</div><p>Stocks waver after report, dollar slides</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告發布後股市波動，美元下滑</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf and Davide Barbuscia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf 和 Davide Barbuscia</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - After a surprisingly weak U.S. payrolls report that underscored that the economy is slowing, investors see the need for accelerated monetary easing, including an increased chance of a jumbo interest rate cut this month. Heading into Friday’s employment report, investors were already widely projecting the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate by a standard quarter-point at its September 16-17 meeting, in what would be its first reduction in nine months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had set the stage for such a cut in remarks last month that pointed to risks in the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在一份意外疲軟的美國就業報告顯示經濟放緩後，投資者認為需要加快貨幣寬鬆，包括本月降息的可能性增加。在週五的就業報告發布之前，投資者已經普遍預計美聯儲將在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的會議上將基準利率下調 25 個基點，這是九個月以來的首次降息。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上個月的講話為這樣的降息奠定了基礎，指出了勞動力市場的風險。</p>
</div><p>But after data showed U.S. jobs grew by a paltry 22,000 in August, well below estimates, market pricing began making room for the possibility of a heftier half-percentage-point reduction, while more easing is now expected through 2025 overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在數據顯示美國 8 月份新增就業崗位僅為 22,000 個，遠低於預期後，市場定價開始為可能的更大幅度的降息（半個百分點）留出空間，同時預計整體寬鬆將持續到 2025 年。</p>
</div><p>“This is two disappointing jobs reports in a row and certainly makes the case for a weakening economy,” said Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. “If you combine that with Chairman Powell’s bias toward full employment rather than price stability, it does suggest that the Fed could go more than originally planned.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是連續兩份令人失望的就業報告，確實表明經濟正在減弱，” Cresset Capital 的創始合夥人兼首席投資官 Jack Ablin 表示。“如果將此與鮑威爾主席偏向於充分就業而非價格穩定的立場結合起來，這確實暗示美聯儲可能會採取比最初計劃更大的行動。”</p>
</div><p>The prospect of lower interest rates has been a support for stocks in recent weeks but equities wavered after Friday’s report. Stock futures jumped initially after the data, before reversing course. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) was last down 0.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期低利率的前景一直支撐着股市，但在週五的報告發布後，股市出現波動。數據發佈後，股指期貨最初上漲，隨後轉為下跌。基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）最後下跌 0.5%。</p>
</div><p>“If investors are focused on Fed policy cuts, then that could be supportive of the stock market,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果投資者關注美聯儲的政策削減，那麼這可能會支持股市，” Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投資官 Jim Baird 表示。</p>
</div><p>“If investors are instead looking at it as a precursor to further slippage in labor conditions and job losses and perhaps an economy that softens up further from here, that’s not good news for stocks.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果投資者將其視為勞動力狀況和失業率進一步惡化的前兆，可能會導致經濟進一步放緩，那對股市來説就不是好消息。”</p>
</div><p>Investors piled in to U.S. Treasuries, sending both short and long-term yields lower. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 4.06%, its lowest in about five months. Meanwhile, in foreign exchange markets, the prospect of accelerated rate cuts sank the dollar index (.DXY) to a near six-week low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者紛紛湧入美國國債，導致短期和長期收益率均下滑。基準美國 10 年期國債收益率降至 4.06%，為約五個月來的最低水平。同時，在外匯市場上，加速降息的前景使美元指數（.DXY）跌至近六週低點。</p>
</div><p>“We find G10 FX is trading with front-end nominal yields. That’s why the dollar dropped after weaker-than-expected payrolls,” said Benjamin Ford, researcher at macro research and strategy firm Macro Hive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們發現 G10 外匯市場的前端名義收益率正在交易。這就是為什麼在就業數據低於預期後，美元下跌，” 宏觀研究和戰略公司 Macro Hive 的研究員 Benjamin Ford 表示。</p>
</div><p>Fed fund futures as of Friday afternoon were baking in a 10% chance of a 50 basis-point reduction later this month, with the 90% balance of probability on a 25 bp cut, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至週五下午，美聯儲基金期貨顯示本月降息 50 個基點的概率為 10%，而降息 25 個基點的概率為 90%，根據 LSEG 的數據。</p>
</div><p>When the Fed started its cutting cycle in September 2024, the central bank began with a half-percentage-point reduction, noted Blair Shwedo, head of investment grade sales and trading at US Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當美聯儲在 2024 年 9 月開始降息週期時，中央銀行以半個百分點的降息開始，US Bank 的投資級銷售和交易負責人 Blair Shwedo 指出。</p>
</div><p>“So I would imagine the market is looking back at that and realizing the Fed is not scared to start out with a more aggressive 50 bp cut,” Shwedo said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所以我想市場正在回顧這一點，並意識到美聯儲並不害怕以更激進的 50 個基點降息開始，” Shwedo 説。</p>
</div><p>Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, said a 50 basis-point move “would add a tailwind to the (stock) market.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Siebert Financial 的首席投資官 Mark Malek 表示，50 個基點的降息 “將為（股市）提供順風”。</p>
</div><p>“It would definitely be a boost for the megacap growth stocks, and a green light for investors to take on more risk,” Malek said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這無疑會對大型成長股形成提振，併為投資者承擔更多風險提供綠燈，” Malek 表示。</p>
</div><p>A 50 basis-point cut could lead to the “capitulation” of short bets for the front-end part of the Treasury curve, which may exacerbate volatility in the bond market, said Slawomir Soroczynski, head of fixed income at Crown Agents Investment Management. The prospect of more aggressive easing could also further raise fears about inflation. Current inflation rates are still above the Fed’s 2% target and Powell and other Fed officials have been wary that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50 個基點的降息可能導致國債曲線前端的空頭頭寸 “投降”，這可能加劇債市的波動，Crown Agents Investment Management 的固定收益負責人 Slawomir Soroczynski 表示。更激進的寬鬆前景也可能進一步加劇對通脹的擔憂。目前的通脹率仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標，鮑威爾和其他美聯儲官員一直擔心特朗普總統的關税可能導致價格上漲。</p>
</div><p>“Powell’s concern is there’s still tariff uncertainty, and he knows that from an inflation standpoint the increase in risk sentiment will certainly spur asset price inflation,” said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. “Now will it spur consumer price inflation? That’s the tug of war.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鮑威爾的擔憂是，關税的不確定性仍然存在，他知道從通脹的角度來看，風險情緒的上升肯定會推動資產價格通脹，” Penn Mutual Asset Management 的投資組合經理 George Cipolloni 表示。“現在這是否會推動消費者價格通脹？這就是拉鋸戰。”</p>
</div><p>Not everyone was convinced a hefty cut was coming after the jobs data. August is a “noisy month” with figures that tend to get revised higher, said Phil Blancato, chief executive officer of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>並不是所有人都相信在就業數據發佈後會有大幅降息。8 月份是一個 “嘈雜的月份”，數據往往會被向上修正，Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management 的首席執行官 Phil Blancato 表示。</p>
</div><p>And more data will come ahead of the Fed meeting, in particular next Thursday’s August Consumer Price Index report that offers another read on inflation trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲會議之前，還會有更多數據發佈，特別是下週四的 8 月份消費者物價指數報告，將提供關於通脹趨勢的另一個解讀。</p>
</div><p>“Inflation is still a major concern and is not being tamed by the slower economic growth,” said Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decision research at Simcorp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通脹仍然是一個主要問題，並未因經濟增長放緩而得到遏制，” Simcorp 的投資決策研究董事總經理 Melissa Brown 表示。</p>
</div><p>Instant view: US job growth slows sharply in August, unemployment rate ticks higher here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即時觀點：美國 8 月份就業增長急劇放緩，失業率小幅上升 這裏</p>
</div>

Investors look for more aggressive US rate cuts after weak jobs data

- 美國 8 月就業增長遠低於預期，僅增加 22,000 個職位。  
- 投資者預計美聯儲本月可能進行 50 個基點的降息。  
- 降息預期導致美元指數下滑至近六週低點。  

在疲軟的就業數據公佈後，投資者希望美國採取更激進的降息措施