<p>美聯儲在通脹持續高企的情況下減弱鴿派傾向</p>
<p>投資者在滯脹威脅下對風險資產保持謹慎</p>
<p>市場對自去年 12 月以來首次降息的反應平淡</p>
<p>美聯儲內部的分歧預計將增加市場波動性</p>
<p>作者：Davide Barbuscia 和 Suzanne McGee</p>
<p>紐約，9 月 18 日（路透社）- 隨着美聯儲恢復降息併為進一步寬鬆打開大門，但又以通脹高企的警告來減弱其信息，投資者似乎將面臨未來幾個月的波動局面，這讓未來政策調整的速度充滿疑慮。</p>
<p>一些投資者現在對快速降低借貸成本的實現不再那麼確定，這可能會抑制對股票和債券因政策寬鬆而獲得強勁提振的樂觀情緒。美聯儲內部對未來利率路徑的多種觀點進一步增加了不確定性。</p>
<p>“我們在這裏有一種相對謹慎的、並不完全防禦性的看法，” 富蘭克林鄧普頓投資公司全球投資策略師 Larry Hatheway 表示，這種看法 “得到了美聯儲信息的強化”。</p>
<p>Hatheway 補充説，市場上許多人可能會對美聯儲缺乏清晰和方向感感到略微失望，因為美聯儲沒有明確支持市場對一系列降息的預期，而是強調了逐次會議、依賴數據的方法。</p>
<p>在週三的會議上，美聯儲將政策利率下調 25 個基點至 4%-4.25% 的區間，這是自去年 12 月以來的首次降息，並表示將逐步放寬政策，以應對日益嚴重的勞動力市場擔憂。同時，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾強調了政策制定者面臨的 “挑戰性局面”，指出通脹風險偏向上行，失業風險偏向下行。</p>
<p>儘管最近數據顯示 8 月份失業率攀升至 4.3% 且就業人數增長遠低於預期，但這些評論仍然抑制了市場的樂觀情緒。對截至 3 月的基準就業數據的急劇下調也進一步加重了勞動力市場失去動力的觀點，增強了未來多次降息的理由。</p>
<p>美聯儲在週三發佈的更新季度經濟預測中，包括在被稱為 “點陣圖” 的圖表中發佈的利率預測，與 6 月份會議的 “點” 相比，反映出對今年更多寬鬆的預期，預計在年底前將有 50 個基點的降息。</p>
<p>與此同時，美聯儲的預測仍然預計今年年底通脹將達到 3%，遠高於美聯儲 2% 的目標，而其對經濟增長的預測略微上調至 1.6%，而 6 月份為 1.4%。</p>
<p>“市場可能會歡迎寬鬆的傾向，但信息仍然是微妙的，遠未完全轉向，” Janus Henderson Investors 的全球短期流動性負責人兼投資組合經理 Dan Siluk 表示。</p>
<p>納斯達克和標準普爾 500 指數在會議前接近歷史高點，但在週三的波動交易中收盤下跌。</p>
<p>國債收益率與債券價格呈反向關係，上漲，2 年期收益率當天上漲 4 個基點至 3.55%，基準 10 年期收益率上漲約 7 個基點至 4.09%。收益率曲線在最近幾周趨於平坦，長期和短期收益率之間的差距因降息預期而縮小。</p>
<p>“美聯儲處於一個困難的境地，” Brandywine Global Investment Management 的投資組合經理 Jack McIntyre 表示。“他們預期滯脹，或者説更高的通脹和疲弱的勞動力市場。這對金融資產來説並不是一個良好的環境。”</p>
<p>滯脹風險依然存在，美國消費者價格在 8 月份因住房和食品成本上升而上漲，這是七個月以來的最大漲幅，導致通脹年同比增幅達到自 1 月份以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>加上勞動力市場條件的軟化，更高的通脹引發了對滯脹的擔憂——這是一種令人擔憂的經濟增長緩慢和高通脹的組合，這在 1970 年代困擾着美國，可能會使美聯儲在大幅降息以支持就業市場時面臨困難。</p>
<p>“這遠不是 1970 年代的滯脹，但在邊際上支持了對股票和債券回報的更保守展望，” Angeles Investments 的首席投資官 Michael Rosen 表示。</p>
<p>美聯儲週三的寬鬆轉變也在特朗普總統政府對美聯儲施加持續壓力以降息後受到審視。</p>
<p>特朗普提名的經濟顧問 Stephen Miran 於週二宣誓就職美聯儲理事會，並對美聯儲的 25 個基點降息決定表示唯一異議，主張應進行更大幅度的 50 個基點降息。</p>
<p>市場還需應對美聯儲的 “點陣圖”，顯示出廣泛的預測，其中一位參與者預計年末利率為 4.4%，高於新的 4.00%-4.25% 區間。另一方面，一位政策制定者將年末政策利率下調至 2.9%。</p>
<p>“我認為市場在消化他們獲得的所有信息時遇到了困難。顯然，這並沒有給任何人提供清晰的視野，” Vanguard 的高級美國經濟學家 Josh Hirt 表示。</p>
<p>“委員會成員之間存在如此大的分歧，導致不確定性加大，” Hirt 補充道，增加的不同交叉潮流 “可能導致更大的波動性。”</p>
<p>政策制定者預計將如何引導利率</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4mjztuw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="912" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4mjztuw"/></p>

標普 500 指數

<p>美聯儲最近的降息使投資者保持謹慎，因為通脹仍然是一個問題。美聯儲將利率下調了 25 個基點，至 4%-4.25% 的區間，但由於通脹持續高企以及美聯儲內部意見不一，降低未來降息的預期。市場反應平淡，納斯達克和標準普爾 500 指數收盤下跌。對滯脹的擔憂依然存在， complicating the Fed's ability to support the labor market. 美聯儲的預測顯示出逐步放鬆的週期，但關於未來政策調整的速度仍然存在不確定性</p>

<p>Fed tempers dovish tilt as inflation remains sticky</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在通脹持續高企的情況下減弱鴿派傾向</p>
</div><p>Investors cautious on risk assets amid stagflation threat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者在滯脹威脅下對風險資產保持謹慎</p>
</div><p>Market reaction muted to first rate cut since December</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場對自去年 12 月以來首次降息的反應平淡</p>
</div><p>Disagreement within Fed expected to add to volatility</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲內部的分歧預計將增加市場波動性</p>
</div><p>By Davide Barbuscia and Suzanne McGee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Davide Barbuscia 和 Suzanne McGee</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Investors look set to face a volatile few months ahead after the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts and opened the door to further easing but tempered its message with warnings of sticky inflation, sowing doubt over the pace of future policy adjustments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，9 月 18 日（路透社）- 隨着美聯儲恢復降息併為進一步寬鬆打開大門，但又以通脹高企的警告來減弱其信息，投資者似乎將面臨未來幾個月的波動局面，這讓未來政策調整的速度充滿疑慮。</p>
</div><p>Some investors are now less certain that a rapid shift to lower borrowing costs will materialize, potentially dampening optimism that stocks and bonds would get a strong lift from easier policy. Adding to the uncertainty was a wide variety of views within the Fed on the future path of rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投資者現在對快速降低借貸成本的實現不再那麼確定，這可能會抑制對股票和債券因政策寬鬆而獲得強勁提振的樂觀情緒。美聯儲內部對未來利率路徑的多種觀點進一步增加了不確定性。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve had a rather cautious, not necessarily fully defensive… view here for a while,” which was “reinforced” by the Fed’s message, said Larry Hatheway, global investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們在這裏有一種相對謹慎的、並不完全防禦性的看法，” 富蘭克林鄧普頓投資公司全球投資策略師 Larry Hatheway 表示，這種看法 “得到了美聯儲信息的強化”。</p>
</div><p>Hatheway added that many in the market would likely be slightly disappointed at the lack of clarity and direction from the Fed, which stopped short of endorsing market expectations for a clear string of rate cuts, emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hatheway 補充説，市場上許多人可能會對美聯儲缺乏清晰和方向感感到略微失望，因為美聯儲沒有明確支持市場對一系列降息的預期，而是強調了逐次會議、依賴數據的方法。</p>
</div><p>At Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, its first cut since December, and signaled a gradual easing cycle in response to mounting labor market concerns. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted “a challenging situation” for policymakers, noting that risks to inflation were tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週三的會議上，美聯儲將政策利率下調 25 個基點至 4%-4.25% 的區間，這是自去年 12 月以來的首次降息，並表示將逐步放寬政策，以應對日益嚴重的勞動力市場擔憂。同時，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾強調了政策制定者面臨的 “挑戰性局面”，指出通脹風險偏向上行，失業風險偏向下行。</p>
</div><p>The comments dampened market optimism despite a much hoped-for dovish shift after recent data that showed unemployment climbing to 4.3% in August and payrolls growing far less than expected. A steep downward revision to benchmark jobs figures for the year through March also recently added weight to the view that the labor market is losing steam, bolstering the case for multiple rate cuts ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管最近數據顯示 8 月份失業率攀升至 4.3% 且就業人數增長遠低於預期，但這些評論仍然抑制了市場的樂觀情緒。對截至 3 月的基準就業數據的急劇下調也進一步加重了勞動力市場失去動力的觀點，增強了未來多次降息的理由。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. central bank’s release on Wednesday of updated quarterly economic projections, including rate forecasts issued in a chart known as the “dot plot”, reflected expectations of more easing this year when compared to the ‘dots’ from the June meeting, with 50 basis points in cuts seen before year end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在週三發佈的更新季度經濟預測中，包括在被稱為 “點陣圖” 的圖表中發佈的利率預測，與 6 月份會議的 “點” 相比，反映出對今年更多寬鬆的預期，預計在年底前將有 50 個基點的降息。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the Fed’s projections still put inflation ending this year at 3%, well above the central bank’s 2% target, while its projection for economic growth was slightly higher at 1.6% versus 1.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美聯儲的預測仍然預計今年年底通脹將達到 3%，遠高於美聯儲 2% 的目標，而其對經濟增長的預測略微上調至 1.6%，而 6 月份為 1.4%。</p>
</div><p>“Markets may welcome the easing bias, but the messaging remains nuanced and far from a full pivot,” said Dan Siluk, head of global short duration and liquidity, and a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市場可能會歡迎寬鬆的傾向，但信息仍然是微妙的，遠未完全轉向，” Janus Henderson Investors 的全球短期流動性負責人兼投資組合經理 Dan Siluk 表示。</p>
</div><p>The Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 had gone into the meeting close to record highs, but closed lower in choppy trading on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>納斯達克和標準普爾 500 指數在會議前接近歷史高點，但在週三的波動交易中收盤下跌。</p>
</div><p>Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, rose, with two-year yields up four basis points on the day at 3.55% and benchmark 10-year yields up by about seven basis points to 4.09%. The yield curve had been flattening in recent weeks, with the gap between long-dated and short-dated yields decreasing on expectations of rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國債收益率與債券價格呈反向關係，上漲，2 年期收益率當天上漲 4 個基點至 3.55%，基準 10 年期收益率上漲約 7 個基點至 4.09%。收益率曲線在最近幾周趨於平坦，長期和短期收益率之間的差距因降息預期而縮小。</p>
</div><p>“The Fed is in a tough spot,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “They expect stagflation, or higher inflation and a weaker labor market. That is not a great environment for financial assets.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美聯儲處於一個困難的境地，” Brandywine Global Investment Management 的投資組合經理 Jack McIntyre 表示。“他們預期滯脹，或者説更高的通脹和疲弱的勞動力市場。這對金融資產來説並不是一個良好的環境。”</p>
</div><p>STAGFLATION RISKS LINGER U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, resulting in the biggest year-on-year increase in inflation since January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滯脹風險依然存在，美國消費者價格在 8 月份因住房和食品成本上升而上漲，這是七個月以來的最大漲幅，導致通脹年同比增幅達到自 1 月份以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Combined with softening labor market conditions, higher inflation has sparked fears of stagflation - a worrying mix of sluggish growth and high inflation that haunted the U.S. in the 1970s and that could complicate the Fed’s ability to support the jobs market with hefty rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加上勞動力市場條件的軟化，更高的通脹引發了對滯脹的擔憂——這是一種令人擔憂的經濟增長緩慢和高通脹的組合，這在 1970 年代困擾着美國，可能會使美聯儲在大幅降息以支持就業市場時面臨困難。</p>
</div><p>“This is far from the stagflation of the 1970s, but at the margin argues for a more conservative outlook for returns on stocks and bonds,” said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這遠不是 1970 年代的滯脹，但在邊際上支持了對股票和債券回報的更保守展望，” Angeles Investments 的首席投資官 Michael Rosen 表示。</p>
</div><p>The Fed’s shift to easing on Wednesday was also being scrutinized after relentless pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on the Fed to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲週三的寬鬆轉變也在特朗普總統政府對美聯儲施加持續壓力以降息後受到審視。</p>
</div><p>Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee and economic adviser, was sworn in to the Fed’s Board of Governors on Tuesday and registered the lone dissent to the Fed’s quarter-point cut decision, instead arguing for a bigger half-point reduction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普提名的經濟顧問 Stephen Miran 於週二宣誓就職美聯儲理事會，並對美聯儲的 25 個基點降息決定表示唯一異議，主張應進行更大幅度的 50 個基點降息。</p>
</div><p>Markets were also left to contend with the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ showing a wide variety of forecasts, with one participant penciling in a 4.4% year-end rate, above the new 4.00%–4.25% range. At the other end, one policymaker marked down a year-end policy rate of 2.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場還需應對美聯儲的 “點陣圖”，顯示出廣泛的預測，其中一位參與者預計年末利率為 4.4%，高於新的 4.00%-4.25% 區間。另一方面，一位政策制定者將年末政策利率下調至 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>“I think the market was having trouble digesting all the information they got. Certainly, it did not give anyone a tremendous line of sight” into how Fed policymakers are approaching decision-making, said Josh Hirt, senior U.S. economist at Vanguard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我認為市場在消化他們獲得的所有信息時遇到了困難。顯然，這並沒有給任何人提供清晰的視野，” Vanguard 的高級美國經濟學家 Josh Hirt 表示。</p>
</div><p>“There is such disagreement amongst the committee members that there is some heightened uncertainty,” Hirt added, and greater volatility “is one potential consequence of this increased number of different cross currents.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“委員會成員之間存在如此大的分歧，導致不確定性加大，” Hirt 補充道，增加的不同交叉潮流 “可能導致更大的波動性。”</p>
</div><p>Where policymakers expect to steer interest rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者預計將如何引導利率</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4mjztuw" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4mjztuw"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Fed's rate cut comes with caveats, leaving investors lukewarm

- 美聯儲首次降息 25 個基點至 4%-4.25% 區間，未來政策調整存疑。  
- 投資者對風險資產保持謹慎，擔憂滯脹風險加劇。  
- 市場反應平淡，因美聯儲內部對未來利率路徑存在分歧。  

分析 - 美聯儲的降息附帶條件，使投資者反應平淡