<p>沒有辦法確切知道股市何時會有大幅波動。有時，早晨或交易日中會發布意外消息，這可能會使市場朝一個方向急劇波動。</p>
<p>另一方面，有些日子我們可以預測市場的波動性高於平均水平，其中一個例子是美聯儲發佈貨幣政策決策的日子。雖然無法提前知道市場會以積極還是消極的方式反應，但在美聯儲會議日，市場上漲或下跌的幅度通常會高於平均水平。</p>
<p>隨着下次美聯儲會議定於十月最後一週舉行，並於 10 月 29 日（星期三）結束，投資者應該瞭解以下信息。</p>
<h2>市場的預期</h2>
<p>根據最近的經濟數據，以及美聯儲官員的評論和上次會議的紀要，投資者普遍預計美聯儲將在十月會議結束時再次降息。</p>
<p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，該工具顯示期貨市場中已計入的利率變動，聯邦基金利率降低 25 個基點（0.25%）的概率為 94.6%。沒有降息的概率為 5.4%。同樣重要的是要意識到，儘管美聯儲在技術上可以採取其他措施，例如降息 50 個基點，但這兩種概率加起來為 100%——因此投資者並未考慮其他任何現實的可能性。</p>
<h2>可能影響市場的因素</h2>
<p>在美聯儲會議後，有四個主要因素可能會影響股市，我們逐一來看：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>利率決定</strong>-當然，如果美聯儲採取除了降息 25 個基點以外的任何行動，這將對投資者來説是一個重大驚喜，並可能影響市場。具體來説，如果美聯儲讓投資者感到意外，完全不降息，這幾乎肯定會對股票產生負面影響。</li>
<li><strong>經濟預測</strong>-美聯儲的政策制定機構——聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）成員會發布對 GDP 增長、失業率和未來利率的預測。但這僅在_每隔一次的美聯儲會議_上進行，而在十月不會發生。</li>
<li><strong>聲明</strong>-與利率決定一起，FOMC 會發布一份聲明來解釋其決定。世界上幾乎沒有任何文件的語言受到如此嚴格的審查。即使是微小的措辭變化也可能被解讀為未來降息概率的指標。</li>
<li><strong>新聞發佈會</strong>-在 FOMC 會議結束和利率決定公佈後不久，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將舉行新聞發佈會，回答有關美聯儲決定及其背景的問題。鮑威爾的評論無疑會影響市場，即使利率決定和聲明如預期那樣。</li>
</ul>
<p>還值得注意的是，這些因素是相互關聯的，某一領域看似負面的消息可能會被其他地方的好消息抵消。例如，如果美聯儲在十月決定維持利率不變，但在聲明中表示 2026 年將有更多降息，而不是目前預期的那樣，這可能被視為積極的發展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1leHByZXNzaW9uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtbGFwdG9wLTIwMjIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1leHByZXNzaW9uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtbGFwdG9wLTIwMjIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>雖然幾乎可以肯定我們將在本月底再次降息，但美聯儲聲明的內容和鮑威爾的新聞發佈會內容仍然無法預測，可能會對市場產生影響。10 月 29 日，我們將在下午 2 點獲得美聯儲最新的貨幣政策見解，當時將公佈利率決定，這可能會成為股市中一個激動人心的日子。</p>

<p>即將於 10 月 29 日召開的美聯儲會議預計將對股市產生重大影響，目前市場對降息 25 個基點的概率為 94.6%。投資者正密切關注美聯儲的利率決定、經濟預測、聲明以及美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的新聞發佈會，因為這些因素可能導致市場波動性高於平均水平。雖然預計會降息，但市場的反應將取決於美聯儲溝通的具體內容以及會議期間可能出現的任何意外情況</p>

<p>There's no way to know for sure when the stock market is going to have a big day. Sometimes, there is unexpected news released in the morning or even during the trading day that can move the market sharply in one direction or the other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有辦法確切知道股市何時會有大幅波動。有時，早晨或交易日中會發布意外消息，這可能會使市場朝一個方向急劇波動。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, there are some days that we can predict above-average volatility in the market, and one example of this is days when the Federal Reserve releases its monetary policy decisions. While it's impossible to know ahead of time whether the market will react in a positive or negative way, it's quite common to see the market rise or fall by an above-average percentage on Fed meeting days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，有些日子我們可以預測市場的波動性高於平均水平，其中一個例子是美聯儲發佈貨幣政策決策的日子。雖然無法提前知道市場會以積極還是消極的方式反應，但在美聯儲會議日，市場上漲或下跌的幅度通常會高於平均水平。</p>
</div><p>With the next Fed meeting scheduled to take place in the last week of October and to wrap up on Wednesday, Oct. 29, here's what investors should know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着下次美聯儲會議定於十月最後一週舉行，並於 10 月 29 日（星期三）結束，投資者應該瞭解以下信息。</p>
</div><h2>What the market expects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場的預期</h2>
</div><p>After recent economic data, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials and the minutes from the last meeting, investors are widely expecting the Fed to cut rates again at the conclusion of its October meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據最近的經濟數據，以及美聯儲官員的評論和上次會議的紀要，投資者普遍預計美聯儲將在十月會議結束時再次降息。</p>
</div><p>According to the CME FedWatch tool, which shows the interest rate moves priced into futures markets, there is a 94.6% chance that the federal funds rate will be lowered by a quarter of a percentage point (25 basis points). There is a 5.4% chance that there will be no interest rate cut. It's also important to realize that while the Fed could technically do something else entirely, like cut rates by half a percent, these two probabilities add up to 100% -- so investors aren't considering anything else as a realistic possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CME FedWatch 工具，該工具顯示期貨市場中已計入的利率變動，聯邦基金利率降低 25 個基點（0.25%）的概率為 94.6%。沒有降息的概率為 5.4%。同樣重要的是要意識到，儘管美聯儲在技術上可以採取其他措施，例如降息 50 個基點，但這兩種概率加起來為 100%——因此投資者並未考慮其他任何現實的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>What could move the market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能影響市場的因素</h2>
</div><p>There are four main things that could potentially move the stock market after a Fed meeting, so let's take them one at a time:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲會議後，有四個主要因素可能會影響股市，我們逐一來看：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>The rate decision</strong>-Of course, if the Fed does anything besides a quarter-percent rate cut, it would be a big surprise to investors and would likely move the market. Specifically, if the Fed surprised investors by not cutting rates at all, it would almost certainly be a negative catalyst for stocks.</li>
<li><strong>The economic projections</strong>-The members of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), which is the policy-making arm of the Fed, release their projections for GDP growth, unemployment, and future interest rates. But this is only done at <em>every other Fed meeting</em> and will not happen in October.</li>
<li><strong>The statement</strong>-Along with its interest rate decision, the FOMC releases a statement justifying its decision. And there are few documents anywhere in the world whose language is quite as scrutinized. Even minor wording changes can be interpreted as indicators of future rate cut probabilities.</li>
<li><strong>The press conference</strong>-Shortly after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting and the announcement of the interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference where he'll take questions about the Fed's decision and the circumstances around it. Powell's comments can certainly move the market, even if the rate decision and statement are as expected.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>利率決定</strong>-當然，如果美聯儲採取除了降息 25 個基點以外的任何行動，這將對投資者來説是一個重大驚喜，並可能影響市場。具體來説，如果美聯儲讓投資者感到意外，完全不降息，這幾乎肯定會對股票產生負面影響。</li>
<li><strong>經濟預測</strong>-美聯儲的政策制定機構——聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）成員會發布對 GDP 增長、失業率和未來利率的預測。但這僅在_每隔一次的美聯儲會議_上進行，而在十月不會發生。</li>
<li><strong>聲明</strong>-與利率決定一起，FOMC 會發布一份聲明來解釋其決定。世界上幾乎沒有任何文件的語言受到如此嚴格的審查。即使是微小的措辭變化也可能被解讀為未來降息概率的指標。</li>
<li><strong>新聞發佈會</strong>-在 FOMC 會議結束和利率決定公佈後不久，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將舉行新聞發佈會，回答有關美聯儲決定及其背景的問題。鮑威爾的評論無疑會影響市場，即使利率決定和聲明如預期那樣。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>It's also worth noting that these work in combination with one another, and seemingly negative news in one area could be offset by good news elsewhere. For example, if the Fed decides to leave rates alone in October but indicates in the statement that more rate cuts are coming in 2026 than are currently expected, it could be perceived as a positive development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還值得注意的是，這些因素是相互關聯的，某一領域看似負面的消息可能會被其他地方的好消息抵消。例如，如果美聯儲在十月決定維持利率不變，但在聲明中表示 2026 年將有更多降息，而不是目前預期的那樣，這可能被視為積極的發展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1leHByZXNzaW9uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtbGFwdG9wLTIwMjIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836545%2Fshocked-expression-looking-at-laptop-2022.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While it's nearly certain that we'll get another rate cut at the end of this month, the contents of the Fed's statement and Powell's press conference are anyone's guess and could certainly move the market. On Oct. 29, we'll get the latest insights into monetary policy from the Fed starting at 2pm when the rate decision is revealed, and it could turn into an exciting day in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然幾乎可以肯定我們將在本月底再次降息，但美聯儲聲明的內容和鮑威爾的新聞發佈會內容仍然無法預測，可能會對市場產生影響。10 月 29 日，我們將在下午 2 點獲得美聯儲最新的貨幣政策見解，當時將公佈利率決定，這可能會成為股市中一個激動人心的日子。</p>
</div>

Why Oct. 29 Could Be a Big Day for the Stock Market

- 投資者預計美聯儲將在 10 月會議上再次降息，概率為 94.6%。  
- 美聯儲的利率決策、經濟預測、聲明和新聞發佈會可能影響市場波動。  
- 10 月 29 日的會議將揭示最新貨幣政策，可能引發股市劇烈波動。  

為什麼 10 月 29 日可能會成為股市的一個重要日子