<p>正如傳奇投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）常説，投資的一個重要部分是理解宏觀經濟環境。宏觀環境的一個重要部分是由美聯儲主導的貨幣政策驅動的，美聯儲有能力提高和降低利率，並影響經濟中的貨幣供應。</p>
<p>當美聯儲通過降低利率和增加貨幣供應來放鬆貨幣政策時，這通常是投資者買入股票的信號。當美聯儲提高利率並收緊貨幣供應時，投資者應該保持警惕，儘管股市沒有絕對的黑白之分。這就是為什麼你經常會聽到策略師説：“不要與美聯儲對抗。”</p>
<p>在最近的一次演講中，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）表示，美聯儲正在考慮在未來幾個月內 “打破酒會的歡樂氣氛”。這可能會引發股票的大幅波動。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgwNDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgwNDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>準備打破酒會的歡樂氣氛</h2>
<p>1955 年，美聯儲主席威廉·麥克切斯尼·馬丁（William McChesney Martin）在一次演講中表示，美聯儲 “就像一個監護人，在派對真正熱起來的時候下令撤走酒會的飲料。”</p>
<p>這個表達後來被廣泛使用，成為描述貨幣政策的一種方式。當美聯儲 “撤走酒會的飲料” 時，指的是該機構通過提高利率或量化緊縮（QT）來收緊貨幣政策，量化緊縮是指美聯儲減少其資產負債表上的債券持有量，從而有效地從經濟中移除資金。而 “打破酒會的歡樂氣氛” 則是相反的，當美聯儲降低利率並通過量化寬鬆（QE）向經濟注入資金時。</p>
<p>儘管市場表現強勁，但美聯儲在過去幾年中一直在撤走酒會的飲料——或者至少減少了一些飲料。這包括自 2022 年開始的激進加息行動，以及在疫情高峰期間美聯儲採取的所有措施導致其資產負債表膨脹後，進行的量化緊縮。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>如上所示，在疫情開始之前，美聯儲的資產負債表上大約有 4 萬億美元的資產，這主要是由於 2008-09 年大蕭條後發生的所有量化寬鬆。這個數字在 2022 年初翻了一番，因為美聯儲採取了重大措施來支撐經濟，而經濟在疫情最嚴重時基本關閉了幾個月，並短暫經歷了失業率飆升。</p>
<p>然而，美聯儲最終開始了量化緊縮，並在降低資產負債表上的資產方面取得了顯著進展，目前約為 6.6 萬億美元。此外，請記住，美聯儲在 2024 年開始降低利率。由於對高通脹的不確定性，該機構在今年大部分時間內暫停了行動，但在 9 月份恢復了降息。</p>
<p>儘管許多人仍在爭論美聯儲是否真的需要降息，以及未來降息的次數，鮑威爾在 10 月 14 日於費城全國商業經濟學協會會議上的演講中似乎讓投資者感到意外，他暗示美聯儲可能很快會暫停量化緊縮：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我們長期以來的計劃是在儲備水平略高於我們認為與充足儲備條件一致的水平時停止資產負債表的縮減。我們可能在未來幾個月接近這一點，我們正在密切監測一系列指標以指導這一決定。一些跡象已經開始出現，流動性條件正在逐漸收緊，包括回購利率的一般上升，以及在特定日期上更明顯但暫時的壓力。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>儘管美聯儲的資產負債表仍然比疫情前的水平高出約 2.5 萬億美元，但鮑威爾明確表示，正常化美聯儲的資產負債表並不一定意味着回到疫情前的水平。美聯儲還希望避免 2019 年在美聯儲首次進行量化緊縮時發生的事件。銀行儲備過低，短期回購市場的收益率（銀行用來有效管理短期流動性的市場）大幅飆升。這迫使美聯儲恢復量化緊縮，並向回購市場注入數百億資金。</p>
<h2>為什麼這可能引發股票的大幅波動</h2>
<p>簡單來説，經濟中流通的資金越多，進入金融資產的可能性就越大。許多專家將多年來的鉅額量化寬鬆歸因於住房價格和股市等其他資產的激增。</p>
<p>雖然這並不完美，但在更廣泛的基準 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong>、美聯儲的資產負債表和 M2 貨幣供應量之間似乎確實存在某種相關性。M2 是衡量美國流動資產總量的指標，包括現金、支票和儲蓄賬户餘額，以及貨幣市場基金和存款證等其他短期賬户。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX 數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>重要的是要理解，美聯儲並沒有重新啓動量化寬鬆，至少目前還沒有。但是，如果該機構結束量化緊縮，這將使經濟中留存更多資金。結合降息，美聯儲將會 “打破酒會的歡樂氣氛”，這在歷史上對股票是有利的。</p>
<p>當然，投資者還必須考慮其他因素，包括市場的高估值以及人工智能行業是否能夠繼續增長。這就是為什麼投資者可能希望繼續進行定投。無論如何，量化緊縮的結束應該為股票創造一個更有利的環境，以便進行下一輪上漲。</p>

標普 500 指數

<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近的評論暗示貨幣政策可能發生變化，這可能會對股市產生重大影響。歷史上，當美聯儲通過降低利率和增加貨幣供應來放鬆貨幣政策時，這通常會向投資者發出買入股票的信號。相反，收緊措施可能會導致投資者保持謹慎。鮑威爾暗示可能會暫停量化緊縮，這可能會導致經濟中的流動性增加，隨着更多資金流入金融資產，可能會引發股票價格的重大波動</p>

<p>As legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller often says, a big part of investing involves understanding the macroeconomic environment. A big part of the macro environment is driven by monetary policy led by the Federal Reserve, which has the power to increase and decrease interest rates and influence the money supply in the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如傳奇投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）常説，投資的一個重要部分是理解宏觀經濟環境。宏觀環境的一個重要部分是由美聯儲主導的貨幣政策驅動的，美聯儲有能力提高和降低利率，並影響經濟中的貨幣供應。</p>
</div><p>When the Fed is easing monetary policy by lowering rates and increasing the money supply, that's often a signal for investors to buy stocks. When the Fed is increasing interest rates and tightening the money supply, investors should be wary, although nothing in the stock market is black and white. This is why you'll often hear strategists say, &#34;Don't fight the Fed.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當美聯儲通過降低利率和增加貨幣供應來放鬆貨幣政策時，這通常是投資者買入股票的信號。當美聯儲提高利率並收緊貨幣供應時，投資者應該保持警惕，儘管股市沒有絕對的黑白之分。這就是為什麼你經常會聽到策略師説：“不要與美聯儲對抗。”</p>
</div><p>In a recent speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is thinking about spiking the punch bowl in the coming months. It could trigger a big move for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一次演講中，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）表示，美聯儲正在考慮在未來幾個月內 “打破酒會的歡樂氣氛”。這可能會引發股票的大幅波動。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgwNDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838048%2Fperson-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Preparing to spike the punch bowl</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>準備打破酒會的歡樂氣氛</h2>
</div><p>In 1955, Fed Chair William McChesney Martin said during a speech that the Fed &#34;is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1955 年，美聯儲主席威廉·麥克切斯尼·馬丁（William McChesney Martin）在一次演講中表示，美聯儲 “就像一個監護人，在派對真正熱起來的時候下令撤走酒會的飲料。”</p>
</div><p>The expression would go on to stick and serve as a way to describe monetary policy. When the Fed &#34;takes away the punch bowl,&#34; that refers to the agency tightening monetary policy through higher interest rates or quantitative tightening (QT), which is when the Fed reduces the bond holdings on its balance sheet and effectively removes money from the economy. &#34;Spiking the punch bowl&#34; is the opposite, when the Fed lowers rates and pumps money into the economy through quantitative easing (QE).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個表達後來被廣泛使用，成為描述貨幣政策的一種方式。當美聯儲 “撤走酒會的飲料” 時，指的是該機構通過提高利率或量化緊縮（QT）來收緊貨幣政策，量化緊縮是指美聯儲減少其資產負債表上的債券持有量，從而有效地從經濟中移除資金。而 “打破酒會的歡樂氣氛” 則是相反的，當美聯儲降低利率並通過量化寬鬆（QE）向經濟注入資金時。</p>
</div><p>While you wouldn't know it by how strong the market has been, the Fed has been taking away the punch bowl -- or at least removing some punch -- over the past few years. This includes an intense interest rate hiking campaign starting in 2022, and QT to reduce the Fed's balance sheet after it swelled up due to all the actions the Fed took during the pandemic's height.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管市場表現強勁，但美聯儲在過去幾年中一直在撤走酒會的飲料——或者至少減少了一些飲料。這包括自 2022 年開始的激進加息行動，以及在疫情高峰期間美聯儲採取的所有措施導致其資產負債表膨脹後，進行的量化緊縮。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As you can see above, the Fed had about $4 trillion of assets on its balance sheet right before the start of the pandemic, which was mostly due to all the QE that occurred after the Great Recession in 2008-09. That number more than doubled in early 2022 after the Fed took significant actions to shore up the economy, which essentially closed for several months during the worst of the pandemic, and briefly experienced a surge in unemployment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上所示，在疫情開始之前，美聯儲的資產負債表上大約有 4 萬億美元的資產，這主要是由於 2008-09 年大蕭條後發生的所有量化寬鬆。這個數字在 2022 年初翻了一番，因為美聯儲採取了重大措施來支撐經濟，而經濟在疫情最嚴重時基本關閉了幾個月，並短暫經歷了失業率飆升。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fed eventually began QT and has made significant progress in lowering assets on its balance sheet to about $6.6 trillion. Also, keep in mind that the Fed began lowering interest rates in 2024. The agency went on pause for most of this year, due to uncertainty about elevated inflation, but resumed cutting in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美聯儲最終開始了量化緊縮，並在降低資產負債表上的資產方面取得了顯著進展，目前約為 6.6 萬億美元。此外，請記住，美聯儲在 2024 年開始降低利率。由於對高通脹的不確定性，該機構在今年大部分時間內暫停了行動，但在 9 月份恢復了降息。</p>
</div><p>While many still debate whether or not the Fed actually needs to be cutting rates, and how many times going forward, Powell seemed to surprise investors in a speech on Oct. 14 at the National Association for Business Economics Conference in Philadelphia when he suggested the Fed may soon pause QT:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管許多人仍在爭論美聯儲是否真的需要降息，以及未來降息的次數，鮑威爾在 10 月 14 日於費城全國商業經濟學協會會議上的演講中似乎讓投資者感到意外，他暗示美聯儲可能很快會暫停量化緊縮：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision. Some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, including a general firming of repo rates along with more noticeable but temporary pressures on selected dates.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我們長期以來的計劃是在儲備水平略高於我們認為與充足儲備條件一致的水平時停止資產負債表的縮減。我們可能在未來幾個月接近這一點，我們正在密切監測一系列指標以指導這一決定。一些跡象已經開始出現，流動性條件正在逐漸收緊，包括回購利率的一般上升，以及在特定日期上更明顯但暫時的壓力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>While the Fed's balance sheet is still roughly $2.5 trillion above pre-pandemic levels, Powell made it clear that normalizing the Fed's balance sheet does not necessarily mean returning to pre-pandemic levels. The Fed also wants to avoid an incident like what happened in 2019 during the Fed's first go at QT. Bank reserves got too low, and yields in the short-term repo market, which banks use to effectively manage short-term liquidity, spiked significantly. This forced the Fed to revert to QT and inject tens of billions into the repo market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美聯儲的資產負債表仍然比疫情前的水平高出約 2.5 萬億美元，但鮑威爾明確表示，正常化美聯儲的資產負債表並不一定意味着回到疫情前的水平。美聯儲還希望避免 2019 年在美聯儲首次進行量化緊縮時發生的事件。銀行儲備過低，短期回購市場的收益率（銀行用來有效管理短期流動性的市場）大幅飆升。這迫使美聯儲恢復量化緊縮，並向回購市場注入數百億資金。</p>
</div><h2>Why it could trigger a big move in stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼這可能引發股票的大幅波動</h2>
</div><p>The simple way to think about it is that the more money there is circulating through the economy, the more likely it is to work its way into financial assets. Many experts attribute the epic amounts of QE over the years to the surge in housing prices and the stock market, among other assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，經濟中流通的資金越多，進入金融資產的可能性就越大。許多專家將多年來的鉅額量化寬鬆歸因於住房價格和股市等其他資產的激增。</p>
</div><p>While it's not perfect, there definitely seems to be some correlation in the broader benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index, the Fed's balance sheet, and M2 money supply. M2 is a measure of total U.S. liquid assets, including cash on hand, checking and savings account balances, and other short-term accounts like money market funds and certificates of deposit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這並不完美，但在更廣泛的基準 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong>、美聯儲的資產負債表和 M2 貨幣供應量之間似乎確實存在某種相關性。M2 是衡量美國流動資產總量的指標，包括現金、支票和儲蓄賬户餘額，以及貨幣市場基金和存款證等其他短期賬户。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^SPX 數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>It's important to understand that the Fed is not restarting QE, at least not yet. But if the agency winds down QT, that will leave more money in the economy. Combined with interest rate cuts, the Fed would be spiking the punch bowl, which has historically been good for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是要理解，美聯儲並沒有重新啓動量化寬鬆，至少目前還沒有。但是，如果該機構結束量化緊縮，這將使經濟中留存更多資金。結合降息，美聯儲將會 “打破酒會的歡樂氣氛”，這在歷史上對股票是有利的。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there are other factors investors must consider as well, including the market's elevated valuation and whether the artificial intelligence sector can continue to run. That's why investors may want to continue with dollar-cost averaging for now. Regardless, the end of QT should create a more favorable environment for stocks to make the next leg higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，投資者還必須考慮其他因素，包括市場的高估值以及人工智能行業是否能夠繼續增長。這就是為什麼投資者可能希望繼續進行定投。無論如何，量化緊縮的結束應該為股票創造一個更有利的環境，以便進行下一輪上漲。</p>
</div>

Fed Chair Jerome Powell May Soon Spike the Punch Bowl. It Could Trigger a Big Move for Stocks

- 美聯儲的貨幣政策對投資者至關重要。  
- 美聯儲可能暫停量化緊縮，影響市場流動性。  
- 結束量化緊縮將為股票市場創造更有利的環境。  

美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾可能很快會撤走刺激措施。這可能會引發股市的大幅波動