<p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>當中央銀行沒有官方數據時，投資者應該怎麼做</p>
<p>本週美聯儲的發言將比以往任何時候都更為重要。</p>
<p>當中央銀行在盲目飛行時該怎麼辦？</p>
<p>美國股市正受到與科技相關的樂觀情緒的推動，這種情緒在整個年度中都在推動市場。標準普爾 500 指數（S&amp;P 500 SPX）和納斯達克綜合指數（Nasdaq COMP）因與人工智能相關的股票而上漲，包括英偉達（Nvidia，NVDA）和超微（AMD，AMD）——無視美國政府停擺帶來的不適。</p>
<p>但在這種狂歡的表面之下，關於下一個重大宏觀經濟事件的焦慮正在加劇：聯邦公開市場委員會的十月會議。</p>
<p>這次會議定於 10 月 28 日至 29 日舉行，正值美聯儲必須在沒有完整政府數據的情況下決定貨幣政策的時刻。這不僅對美聯儲提出了操作性問題，也提出了哲學性問題：當中央銀行在盲目飛行時該怎麼辦？</p>
<p>這並非沒有先例。美國曆史上最長的政府停擺發生在 2018 年底，並持續到 2019 年初，持續了 35 天。那次停擺也延遲了政府數據的發佈，迫使美聯儲使用私營部門的代理數據和基於市場的指標。</p>
<p>這一次風險可能更大：美國經濟正在放緩，財政政策動盪不安，貨幣政策已經緊縮。做錯事情或發出錯誤信號可能會擾亂市場，不必要地收緊金融條件，或導致通貨膨脹重新加速。</p>
<p>幾乎所有關於本週美聯儲會議的猜測都集中在美聯儲是否會將關鍵利率下調 0.25%（25 個基點）。市場參與者將此視為基本情景，但美聯儲使用的措辭和語氣將是最重要的。</p>
<p>如果美聯儲降息但繼續採取鷹派言辭，市場可能會下跌。股票最初會因降息而歡慶，但美聯儲對持續通脹威脅的任何謹慎態度都會推高實際收益率和美元指數（DXY），使成長型股票陷入困境。在這種情況下，依賴實際收益率壓縮的黃金（GC00）將會下跌，而高貝塔股票的保證金頭寸將迅速被平倉。</p>
<p>另一方面，若美聯儲降息 0.25% 並伴隨鴿派評論，市場可能會將其視為寬鬆週期的開始。如果美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾及其團隊強調下行風險——包括勞動市場條件的放緩或全球經濟的疲軟——市場將大幅上漲。美元將下跌，黃金將突破上漲，股票和加密貨幣的風險偏好將飆升。</p>
<p>這就是 “軟着陸加流動性” 的情景，也是市場多頭所押注的方向。</p>
<p>還有可能出現更強有力的美聯儲舉措——0.50%（50 個基點）的降息。這隻有在私人數據或金融市場困境表明情況比預期更糟時才會發生。</p>
<p>如此規模的干預將表明美聯儲意識到即將到來的衰退危險或信貸扭曲。如果伴隨鴿派言辭，這樣的舉動將引發風險資產（股票、加密貨幣、黃金）的狂歡反應——幾乎所有資產都會上漲。但如此大膽的舉動也可能引發恐慌，認為美聯儲意識到了一些公眾未能察覺的事情。在這種情況下，初始的激增將被防禦性再平衡所跟隨，特別是如果投資者開始積極尋找系統性弱點的跡象。</p>
<p>另一個尚未深入探討的結果是美聯儲維持利率不變，同時發佈鴿派指引。這將是一種經典的 “觀望” 策略，特別是如果停擺延遲了太多經濟數據，無法證明立即採取行動的必要性。美聯儲可以説，實際上是 “我們現在不降息，但如果情況惡化，我們會準備好降息。” 這種立場可能會受到股市的歡迎，具體取決於指引的可信度。但如果市場將暫停解讀為恐懼或猶豫，波動性將急劇上升。</p>
<p>如果鮑威爾傳達的信息對最終發佈的數據過於謹慎，或對投資者所預期的情況過於激進，反應可能會非常劇烈。</p>
<p>最後，市場的末日情景：美聯儲維持利率不變併發出鷹派信號。這種信息在通脹數據滯後但在美聯儲的替代追蹤指標中仍然令人不安時是合理的——或者如果工資增長和住房通脹沒有迅速降温。</p>
<p>如果鮑威爾提到諸如 “通脹持續”、“過早寬鬆” 或 “金融條件過於寬鬆” 等術語，市場將解讀為降息的前景不久將來不會出現。在這種情況下，準備好在標準普爾 500 指數（S&amp;P 500 SPX）中出現急劇拋售，美元上漲，黃金疲軟，以及在高槓杆交易中出現極度困擾。</p>
<p>美聯儲的發言將比以往任何時候都更為重要。由於官方失業率、消費者物價指數（CPI）和工資數據可能缺失，鮑威爾可能會更加依賴 “軟” 指標，包括 ISM 調查、失業救濟申請和基於市場的通脹預期。這是個問題。這些代理數據往往波動性大且滯後。而這就是風險所在——如果鮑威爾傳達的信息對最終發佈的數據過於謹慎，或對投資者所預期的情況過於激進，反應可能會非常劇烈。</p>
<p>政治與政策</p>
<p>在政策要求之上，政治正在助長這種狂熱。政府停擺持續的時間越長，經濟摩擦就越大。聯邦工作人員的薪水延遲、合同延遲、建築項目停工——這些二次影響將開始在收益、消費者數據和情緒中顯現。</p>
<p>在緊張局勢高漲的情況下，即使美聯儲降息也可能不足以緩解恐懼。投資者需要積極準備應對所有這些可能性——不僅僅是預期的那一個。這意味着要關注實際收益率、波動率指數和外匯頭寸。</p>
<p>黃金仍然是非對稱環境中最好的對沖工具之一，特別是在美聯儲過度調整或不再掌控敍事時。對於股票，要挑剔。避免追逐指數。關注那些具有定價能力、穩健資產負債表和低利率敏感性的公司。</p>
<p>美聯儲的工作從來都不是簡單的。但當它必須在沒有所有儀表盤工具的情況下駕馭全球最大經濟體時，這就變得更加困難。市場預期經濟將實現軟着陸。美聯儲是否支持或破壞這種看法取決於它所説的話，而不是它所做的事。</p>
<p>Naeem Aslam 是倫敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投資官。</p>
<p>更多：在通脹如此高的情況下，美聯儲怎麼可能再次降息？</p>
<p>另請閲讀：美國股市的估值幾乎在歷史上任何時候都更高——幾乎所有指標都如此。</p>
<p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>2011 年 10 月 27 日 2011ET</p>

<p>即將於 10 月 28 日至 29 日召開的聯邦公開市場委員會會議至關重要，因為美聯儲在美國政府持續停擺的情況下，無法獲得完整的政府數據來調整貨幣政策。投資者正在猜測可能會有 0.25% 的降息，市場反應將取決於美聯儲的語氣。鴿派立場可能會提振市場，而鷹派信號則可能導致拋售。美聯儲的決定可能會對股票、美元和黃金產生重大影響，情景包括降息到維持當前利率並提供謹慎的指導</p>

<p>By Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>Here's what investors should do when the central bank doesn't have official data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當中央銀行沒有官方數據時，投資者應該怎麼做</p>
</div><p>What the Fed says this week will matter more than ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週美聯儲的發言將比以往任何時候都更為重要。</p>
</div><p>What is a central bank to do when it is flying blind?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當中央銀行在盲目飛行時該怎麼辦？</p>
</div><p>The U.S. stock market is being powered by the same tech-heavy optimism that has driven momentum all year. The S&amp;P 500 SPX and Nasdaq COMP have been lifted by AI-related stocks including Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) - brushing aside the discomfort of the U.S. government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股市正受到與科技相關的樂觀情緒的推動，這種情緒在整個年度中都在推動市場。標準普爾 500 指數（S&amp;P 500 SPX）和納斯達克綜合指數（Nasdaq COMP）因與人工智能相關的股票而上漲，包括英偉達（Nvidia，NVDA）和超微（AMD，AMD）——無視美國政府停擺帶來的不適。</p>
</div><p>But beneath the surface of this euphoria lies growing anxiety about the next big macroeconomic event: the October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在這種狂歡的表面之下，關於下一個重大宏觀經濟事件的焦慮正在加劇：聯邦公開市場委員會的十月會議。</p>
</div><p>That meeting - set for Oct. 28-29 - comes at a time when the Federal Reserve has to decide on monetary policy without the full panoply of government data it would ordinarily rely on. This poses not just operational questions for the Fed, but also philosophical ones: What is a central bank to do when it is flying blind?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這次會議定於 10 月 28 日至 29 日舉行，正值美聯儲必須在沒有完整政府數據的情況下決定貨幣政策的時刻。這不僅對美聯儲提出了操作性問題，也提出了哲學性問題：當中央銀行在盲目飛行時該怎麼辦？</p>
</div><p>This is not without precedent. The longest U.S. government shutdown came in late 2018 and carried into early 2019, lasting 35 days. That one delayed government data too, forcing the Fed to use private-sector proxies and market-based indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並非沒有先例。美國曆史上最長的政府停擺發生在 2018 年底，並持續到 2019 年初，持續了 35 天。那次停擺也延遲了政府數據的發佈，迫使美聯儲使用私營部門的代理數據和基於市場的指標。</p>
</div><p>This time the risks may be greater: The U.S. economy is slowing, fiscal policy is in turmoil and monetary policy is already tight. Doing the wrong thing or sending the wrong signal could unsettle markets, tighten financial conditions unnecessarily or allow inflation to reaccelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一次風險可能更大：美國經濟正在放緩，財政政策動盪不安，貨幣政策已經緊縮。做錯事情或發出錯誤信號可能會擾亂市場，不必要地收緊金融條件，或導致通貨膨脹重新加速。</p>
</div><p>Almost all the conjecture heading into this week's Fed meeting is focused on whether the Fed will lower the key rate by 0.25%, or 25 basis points. Market participants are seeing this as the base-case scenario, but the wording and tone the Fed uses will be most important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾乎所有關於本週美聯儲會議的猜測都集中在美聯儲是否會將關鍵利率下調 0.25%（25 個基點）。市場參與者將此視為基本情景，但美聯儲使用的措辭和語氣將是最重要的。</p>
</div><p>Should the Fed reduce rates but continue hawkish rhetoric, markets might sell off. Stocks would initially celebrate the reduction, but any Fed caution about a persistent inflation menace would inflate real yields and the U.S. dollar DXY, putting growth stocks in trouble. Gold (GC00), which lives on real-yield compression, would decline under these circumstances, and margin positioning would be quickly unwound in high-beta stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美聯儲降息但繼續採取鷹派言辭，市場可能會下跌。股票最初會因降息而歡慶，但美聯儲對持續通脹威脅的任何謹慎態度都會推高實際收益率和美元指數（DXY），使成長型股票陷入困境。在這種情況下，依賴實際收益率壓縮的黃金（GC00）將會下跌，而高貝塔股票的保證金頭寸將迅速被平倉。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a 0.25% rate cut with dovish commentary would likely be viewed as the beginning of an easing cycle. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell and team highlight risks on the downside - including softening labor-market conditions or weakness in the economy globally - markets would pop much higher. The dollar would fall, gold would break to the upside and risk appetite for equities and crypto would go through the ceiling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，若美聯儲降息 0.25% 並伴隨鴿派評論，市場可能會將其視為寬鬆週期的開始。如果美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾及其團隊強調下行風險——包括勞動市場條件的放緩或全球經濟的疲軟——市場將大幅上漲。美元將下跌，黃金將突破上漲，股票和加密貨幣的風險偏好將飆升。</p>
</div><p>This is the &#34;soft landing plus liquidity&#34; scenario, and what the market bulls are betting on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是 “軟着陸加流動性” 的情景，也是市場多頭所押注的方向。</p>
</div><p>There is also a chance for a more forceful Fed move - a 0.50% (50-basis-point) reduction. This would be done only if private data or financial-market distress indicates things are breaking faster than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有可能出現更強有力的美聯儲舉措——0.50%（50 個基點）的降息。這隻有在私人數據或金融市場困境表明情況比預期更糟時才會發生。</p>
</div><p>An intervention on that scale would indicate the Fed recognizes imminent recession danger or credit distortions. If accompanied by dovish rhetoric, such a move would induce a euphoric response for risk assets - stocks, crypto, gold - nearly everything goes up. But such a bold move could also stoke panic that the Fed recognizes something the general public doesn't. In that scenario, the initial surge would be followed by a defensive rebalancing, particularly if investors start searching hard for hints of systemic weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此規模的干預將表明美聯儲意識到即將到來的衰退危險或信貸扭曲。如果伴隨鴿派言辭，這樣的舉動將引發風險資產（股票、加密貨幣、黃金）的狂歡反應——幾乎所有資產都會上漲。但如此大膽的舉動也可能引發恐慌，認為美聯儲意識到了一些公眾未能察覺的事情。在這種情況下，初始的激增將被防禦性再平衡所跟隨，特別是如果投資者開始積極尋找系統性弱點的跡象。</p>
</div><p>Yet another underexplored outcome is the Fed holding rates steady while issuing dovish guidance. This would be a classic &#34;wait-and-see&#34; approach, particularly if the shutdown delays too much economic data to justify immediate action. The Fed could say, in effect, &#34;We're not cutting now, but we're prepared to if conditions worsen.&#34; That sort of stance could be well received by equity markets, depending on how credible the guidance is. But if markets interpret the pause as fear or indecision, volatility would rise sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個尚未深入探討的結果是美聯儲維持利率不變，同時發佈鴿派指引。這將是一種經典的 “觀望” 策略，特別是如果停擺延遲了太多經濟數據，無法證明立即採取行動的必要性。美聯儲可以説，實際上是 “我們現在不降息，但如果情況惡化，我們會準備好降息。” 這種立場可能會受到股市的歡迎，具體取決於指引的可信度。但如果市場將暫停解讀為恐懼或猶豫，波動性將急劇上升。</p>
</div><p>If Powell delivers a message too cautious for the data that eventually comes out, or too aggressive for what investors are bracing for, the reaction could be violent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果鮑威爾傳達的信息對最終發佈的數據過於謹慎，或對投資者所預期的情況過於激進，反應可能會非常劇烈。</p>
</div><p>And lastly, the doomsday scenario for markets: The Fed keeps rates unchanged and sends a hawkish signal. This is the type of message that would be reasonable if inflation data is lagging but still too uncomfortable in the Fed's alternative trackers - or if wage growth and shelter inflation have not cooled quickly enough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，市場的末日情景：美聯儲維持利率不變併發出鷹派信號。這種信息在通脹數據滯後但在美聯儲的替代追蹤指標中仍然令人不安時是合理的——或者如果工資增長和住房通脹沒有迅速降温。</p>
</div><p>Should Powell refer to such terms as &#34;inflation persistence,&#34; &#34;premature easing&#34; or &#34;financial conditions too loose,&#34; markets will interpret it as the message that rate cuts are not on the horizon anytime soon. In that event, prepare for a precipitous selloff in the S&amp;P 500 SPX, a rising dollar, weakness in gold and extreme distress in highly leveraged trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果鮑威爾提到諸如 “通脹持續”、“過早寬鬆” 或 “金融條件過於寬鬆” 等術語，市場將解讀為降息的前景不久將來不會出現。在這種情況下，準備好在標準普爾 500 指數（S&amp;P 500 SPX）中出現急劇拋售，美元上漲，黃金疲軟，以及在高槓杆交易中出現極度困擾。</p>
</div><p>What the Fed says will matter more than ever. With official unemployment, CPI and wage data potentially missing, Powell may lean more heavily on &#34;soft&#34; indicators including ISM surveys, jobless claims and market-based inflation expectations. That's problematic. These proxies are often volatile and backward-looking. And that's where the risk lies - if Powell delivers a message too cautious for the data that eventually comes out, or too aggressive for what investors are bracing for, the reaction could be violent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的發言將比以往任何時候都更為重要。由於官方失業率、消費者物價指數（CPI）和工資數據可能缺失，鮑威爾可能會更加依賴 “軟” 指標，包括 ISM 調查、失業救濟申請和基於市場的通脹預期。這是個問題。這些代理數據往往波動性大且滯後。而這就是風險所在——如果鮑威爾傳達的信息對最終發佈的數據過於謹慎，或對投資者所預期的情況過於激進，反應可能會非常劇烈。</p>
</div><p>Politics vs. policy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政治與政策</p>
</div><p>Above the policy imperatives, politics is fueling the frenzy. The longer the government shutdown continues, the more economic friction is caused. Paychecks delayed for federal workers, delayed contracts, halted construction projects - these second-order effects will start showing up in earnings, consumer data and sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政策要求之上，政治正在助長這種狂熱。政府停擺持續的時間越長，經濟摩擦就越大。聯邦工作人員的薪水延遲、合同延遲、建築項目停工——這些二次影響將開始在收益、消費者數據和情緒中顯現。</p>
</div><p>With tensions running high, even a Fed cut may not be enough to soothe fears. Investors need to be actively gearing up for all these possibilities - not just the expected one. That entails following through on real yields, volatility indexes and FX positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在緊張局勢高漲的情況下，即使美聯儲降息也可能不足以緩解恐懼。投資者需要積極準備應對所有這些可能性——不僅僅是預期的那一個。這意味着要關注實際收益率、波動率指數和外匯頭寸。</p>
</div><p>Gold is still one of the best hedges in asymmetric environments, especially if the Fed overcorrects or is no longer in control of the narrative. With stocks, be picky. Avoid chasing the index. Look at firms with pricing power, solid balance sheets and low interest-rate sensitivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金仍然是非對稱環境中最好的對沖工具之一，特別是在美聯儲過度調整或不再掌控敍事時。對於股票，要挑剔。避免追逐指數。關注那些具有定價能力、穩健資產負債表和低利率敏感性的公司。</p>
</div><p>The Fed's job is never straightforward. But when it has to navigate the largest economy in the world without having all the dashboard tools, that is exponentially harder. The market expects a soft landing for the economy. Whether the Fed supports or shatters that perception depends on what it says, not what it does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的工作從來都不是簡單的。但當它必須在沒有所有儀表盤工具的情況下駕馭全球最大經濟體時，這就變得更加困難。市場預期經濟將實現軟着陸。美聯儲是否支持或破壞這種看法取決於它所説的話，而不是它所做的事。</p>
</div><p>Naeem Aslam is chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets in London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Naeem Aslam 是倫敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投資官。</p>
</div><p>More: How can the Fed be cutting interest rates again with inflation running so high?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：在通脹如此高的情況下，美聯儲怎麼可能再次降息？</p>
</div><p>Also read: The stock market is more overvalued than at almost any time in U.S. history - by virtually any measure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：美國股市的估值幾乎在歷史上任何時候都更高——幾乎所有指標都如此。</p>
</div><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>10-27-25 2011ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2011 年 10 月 27 日 2011ET</p>
</div>

美聯儲有充分的理由在十月進行降息，但投資者應做好準備應對任何可能發生的情況