<p>加密貨幣投機者普遍相信 <strong>美聯儲</strong> 將在週三將利率下調 25 個基點。</p>
<h2>交易已成定局？</h2>
<p>截至目前，在去中心化預測平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong> 上，降息 25 個基點的概率為 98%。另一方面，利率維持在當前 4.00% 至 4.25% 區間的概率僅為 1%。</p>
<p>目前已有超過 2.08 億美元的賭注押在這一結果上。市場的最終結果將取決於美聯儲在 10 月會議後的聲明。</p>
<p>請注意，美國居民目前被禁止使用基於 <strong>Polygon</strong>(CRYPTO: POL) 的平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong>，但預計不久將開始運營。</p>
<p>與此同時，在聯邦監管的平台 <strong>Kalshi</strong> 上，投注者看到 25 個基點降息的概率為 98%。</p>
<p>這些賭注與 CME FedWatch 追蹤器的結果大致一致，該追蹤器顯示美聯儲在會議後宣佈降息 25 個基點的概率為 99.9%。</p>
<h2>鮑威爾會轉向鴿派嗎？</h2>
<p>有趣的是，<strong>Polymarket</strong> 上 12 月降息的概率也相當高，達 85%。</p>
<p>牛津經濟研究院的 <strong>Ryan Sweet</strong> 指出，持續的政府停擺已擾亂了關鍵經濟數據的發佈，這種情況可能促使美聯儲考慮再次降息，以避免在數據驅動的決策中落後。</p>
<p>注意力也將轉向美聯儲主席 <strong>傑羅姆·鮑威爾</strong> 的政策聲明。美國銀行經濟學家 <strong>阿迪提亞·巴哈夫</strong> 預計，鮑威爾會因缺乏政府數據而故意保持模糊。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Andrii Yalanskyi，來自 Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>貨幣市場期待可預測的鮑威爾和不可預測的特朗普</strong></li>
</ul>

<p>加密貨幣投注者對美聯儲將在週三降息 25 個基點的信心非常高，Polymarket 顯示這一結果的概率為 98%。對此結果的投注金額超過 2.08 億美元。CME FedWatch 追蹤器也顯示降息的概率為 99.9%。此外，12 月降息的概率為 85%。分析師指出，持續的政府停擺可能會影響美聯儲的決策，而由於缺乏經濟數據，市場對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的聲明保持謹慎預期</p>

<p>Cryptocurrency punters are largely confident that the <strong>Federal Reserve</strong> will slash interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密貨幣投機者普遍相信 <strong>美聯儲</strong> 將在週三將利率下調 25 個基點。</p>
</div><h2>A Done Deal?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交易已成定局？</h2>
</div><p>As of this writing, the odds of a quarter-point reduction stood at 98% on the decentralized prediction platform <strong>Polymarket</strong>. On the other hand, there was only a 1% chance that the rates would stay at their current range of 4.00% to 4.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，在去中心化預測平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong> 上，降息 25 個基點的概率為 98%。另一方面，利率維持在當前 4.00% 至 4.25% 區間的概率僅為 1%。</p>
</div><p>More than $208 million has been wagered on the outcome already. The market’s resolution will depend on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following its October meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前已有超過 2.08 億美元的賭注押在這一結果上。市場的最終結果將取決於美聯儲在 10 月會議後的聲明。</p>
</div><p>Note that U.S. residents are currently barred from using <strong>Polymarket</strong>, a <strong>Polygon</strong>(CRYPTO: POL)-based platform, but it is expected to start operations in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請注意，美國居民目前被禁止使用基於 <strong>Polygon</strong>(CRYPTO: POL) 的平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong>，但預計不久將開始運營。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, bettors on the federally-regulated platform <strong>Kalshi</strong> saw a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，在聯邦監管的平台 <strong>Kalshi</strong> 上，投注者看到 25 個基點降息的概率為 98%。</p>
</div><p>These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which showed a 99.9% chance of the central bank announcing a 25 basis point cut after the meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些賭注與 CME FedWatch 追蹤器的結果大致一致，該追蹤器顯示美聯儲在會議後宣佈降息 25 個基點的概率為 99.9%。</p>
</div><h2>Will Powell Turn Dovish?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鮑威爾會轉向鴿派嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Interestingly, the odds of a December rate cut were also significantly high on Polymarket, at 85%,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，<strong>Polymarket</strong> 上 12 月降息的概率也相當高，達 85%。</p>
</div><p>Oxford Economics' <strong>Ryan Sweet</strong> noted that the ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic data and that the situation might prompt the Fed to consider another rate cut to avoid falling behind in data-driven decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>牛津經濟研究院的 <strong>Ryan Sweet</strong> 指出，持續的政府停擺已擾亂了關鍵經濟數據的發佈，這種情況可能促使美聯儲考慮再次降息，以避免在數據驅動的決策中落後。</p>
</div><p>Attention will also shift to the Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell’s</strong> policy statement. Bank of America economist <strong>Aditya Bhave</strong> expects Powell to keep things intentionally vague due to the absence of government data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>注意力也將轉向美聯儲主席 <strong>傑羅姆·鮑威爾</strong> 的政策聲明。美國銀行經濟學家 <strong>阿迪提亞·巴哈夫</strong> 預計，鮑威爾會因缺乏政府數據而故意保持模糊。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo Courtesy: Andrii Yalanskyi on Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Andrii Yalanskyi，來自 Shutterstock.com</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Currency Market Looks To Predictable Powell And Unpredictable Trump</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>貨幣市場期待可預測的鮑威爾和不可預測的特朗普</strong></li>
</ul>
</div>

Rate Cuts A Foregone Conclusion? Polymarket Bettors Convinced Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve Will Slash On Wednesday

- 加密貨幣投資者預計美聯儲將下調利率 25 個基點，概率達 98%。  
- 超過 2.08 億美元已在此結果上下注，市場將關注美聯儲會議後的聲明。  
- 經濟學家認為政府停擺可能促使美聯儲考慮進一步降息。  

降息是否已成定局？Polymarket 的投注者確信由傑羅姆·鮑威爾領導的美聯儲將在週三降息