<p>李丹，華爾街洞察</p>
<p>美聯儲會議紀要顯示，在上個月底的貨幣政策會議上，政策制定者在是否在 12 月降息的問題上嚴重分歧。認為今年沒有必要降息的人數未達到多數，但超過了支持降息的人數。一些中間派將根據數據做出決定。關於減少資產負債表的量化緊縮（QT）行動，幾乎達成一致意見認為應該停止。關於金融穩定的風險，有人擔心股市出現無序下跌。</p>
<p>美聯儲於 11 月 19 日東部時間發佈的會議紀要指出：“在討論貨幣政策的短期方向時，與會者對美聯儲委員會（FOMC）12 月會議上最可能的政策決定表達了非常不同的看法。大多數與會者認為，隨着委員會逐漸轉向更中性的政策立場，進一步降息可能是合適的。” “然而，一些人表示，他們可能不認為在 12 月會議上進一步降息 25 個基點是合適的。一些與會者評估，如果在接下來的兩次會議之間的經濟發展符合他們的預期，12 月進一步降息可能更為合適。” “許多與會者表示，基於他們的經濟展望，維持當前利率至年底可能是合適的。” 所有與會者一致認為，貨幣政策不是靜態的，而是受到各種最新數據、不斷變化的經濟展望和風險平衡的影響。媒體指出，在美聯儲會議紀要中常用的所謂計數術語中，“許多” 一詞代表的人數少於 “多數/大多數”。因此，上述聲明表明，在上一次 FOMC 會議上，反對在 12 月再次降息的人仍然是少數。被稱為 “新美聯儲發言人” 的資深美聯儲記者 Nick Timiraos 指出，會議紀要提到 “許多” 官員認為 12 月降息沒有必要，超過了認為降息更可能的官員人數。然而，大多數官員仍然認為，無論是否在 12 月，都應該在未來進行降息。總的來説，大多數美聯儲官員認為未來會降息，無論何時。這包括將根據數據決定是否在 12 月降息的中間派；許多人認為今年不需要進一步降息，而一些人認為降息是合適的。反對 12 月降息的陣營並不代表多數，但其人數超過了支持 12 月降息的陣營。FOMC 在 10 月 29 日會議後發佈的聲明顯示，FOMC 決定連續第二次將利率下調 25 個基點，但 12 名投票者中有兩名反對這一決定。與以往不同，這次在降息幅度和是否繼續降息的問題上存在分歧。在反對者中，特朗普總統挑選的新任州長 Milan 仍希望降息 50 個基點，而堪薩斯城聯儲主席 Schmid 支持維持利率不變。許多人認為，今年的關税增加對整體通脹的影響有限。大多數人認為降息可能加劇通脹風險。美聯儲內部的鷹派觀點在會議紀要中得到了反映，提到在討論風險管理考慮時，大多數與會者認為 FOMC 轉向更中性政策立場將有助於避免勞動市場條件的顯著惡化。“許多與會者還認為，考慮到今年關税增加的證據越來越多，可能對整體通脹的影響有限，委員會應適當放寬政策立場，以應對就業的下行風險。” 大多數與會者指出，在持續高通脹和勞動市場緩慢降温的背景下，進一步降息可能加劇持續高通脹的風險，或者可能被誤解為對 2% 通脹目標缺乏承諾。一些人擔心，如果市場突然重新評估人工智能的前景，可能會出現股市崩盤。會議紀要顯示，在討論金融穩定風險時，一些美聯儲官員對 “金融市場資產的高估值” 表示擔憂。會議紀要指出：“一些與會者評論了金融市場資產高估值的問題，幾位與會者強調了股價無序下跌的風險，尤其是如果市場突然重新評估與人工智能（AI）相關技術的前景。” 幾位與會者還提到了與高企業債務相關的風險。這些擔憂反映出美聯儲在制定貨幣政策時，不僅關注通脹和就業，還密切關注金融穩定。幾乎一致支持結束資產負債表縮減；許多人支持增加短期債務持有比例。上次會議的 FOMC 聲明指出，決定於 12 月 1 日結束資產負債表縮減計劃。這意味着自 2022 年 6 月 1 日開始的資產負債表縮減計劃將在三年半後結束。美聯儲的公告顯示，在 12 月停止資產負債表縮減後，從美聯儲的機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）中贖回的本金將再投資於短期美國國債，以替代到期的 MBS 持有。週三發佈的會議紀要顯示，“幾乎所有” 與會者認為在 12 月 1 日停止資產負債表縮減是合適的，換句話説，他們都認為這一決定是可以接受的。一些市場參與者此前擔心，美聯儲延遲停止資產負債表縮減可能導致由於流動性壓力而引發隔夜融資利率波動。會議紀要指出，與會者一致認為，近期貨幣市場條件的收緊表明資產負債表縮減接近尾聲。“許多與會者指出，更高比例的短期國債持有將為美聯儲提供更多靈活性，以應對準備金要求或非準備金負債的變化，從而幫助維持充足的準備金水平。” 被稱為 “新美聯儲發言人” 的資深美聯儲記者 Nick Timiraos 寫道，10 月的降息決定引發了對可能在 12 月降息的強烈反對。在他的文章中，Timiraos 強調，會議紀要顯示 FOMC 內部對 12 月下次會議的政策決定存在強烈分歧。這使得越來越多的美聯儲政策制定者——或許是一個狹窄的多數——對 12 月降息感到不安。他指出，這是多年來 FOMC 對下次會議的最大分歧。Timiraos 指出，會議紀要顯示幾位美聯儲官員在當時反對 10 月的降息決定，可能包括一些在今年 FOMC 會議上沒有投票權的地區聯儲主席。支持降息的其他官員也表示，他們可以接受不採取行動，突顯出委員會內部分歧的嚴重性。Timiraos 進一步指出，無論 12 月會議的決定如何，大多數美聯儲官員認為未來需要進一步降息。</p>

<p>美聯儲會議紀要顯示，政策制定者之間對 12 月降息存在嚴重分歧。雖然許多人認為降息沒有必要，但他們仍然是少數。大多數官員預計未來會降息，中間派則根據數據做出決定。擔憂包括通脹風險和股市穩定性。聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）轉向中性政策立場，旨在防止勞動力市場惡化。紀要強調了資產高估的擔憂和潛在的股市風險</p>

<p>Li Dan, Wall Street Insights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李丹，華爾街洞察</p>
</div><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that at the monetary policy meeting at the end of last month, policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December. The number of people who believed that there was no need to cut interest rates this year did not reach a majority, but it exceeded the number of people who supported cutting interest rates. Some centrists would decide based on the data. Regarding the quantitative tightening (QT) action to reduce the balance sheet (quantitative tightening), there was almost unanimous agreement that it should be stopped. Regarding the risks to financial stability, some people were worried about a disorderly decline in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲會議紀要顯示，在上個月底的貨幣政策會議上，政策制定者在是否在 12 月降息的問題上嚴重分歧。認為今年沒有必要降息的人數未達到多數，但超過了支持降息的人數。一些中間派將根據數據做出決定。關於減少資產負債表的量化緊縮（QT）行動，幾乎達成一致意見認為應該停止。關於金融穩定的風險，有人擔心股市出現無序下跌。</p>
</div><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday, November 19th, Eastern Time, stated: &#34;In discussing the near-term direction of monetary policy, participants expressed very different views on the most likely policy decision at the December meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC). Most participants believed that further rate cuts might be appropriate as the Committee gradually shifts to a more neutral policy stance.&#34; &#34;However, some suggested that they might not believe a further 25 basis point rate cut would be appropriate at the December meeting. Some participants assessed that if economic developments between the next two meetings met their expectations, a further rate cut in December might be more appropriate.&#34; &#34;Many participants indicated that, based on their economic outlook, maintaining the current interest rate for the remainder of the year might be appropriate.&#34; All participants agreed that monetary policy is not static but is influenced by various latest data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. Media outlets pointed out that in the so-called counting terminology commonly used in Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the word &#34;many&#34; represents fewer people than &#34;most/majority.&#34; Therefore, the above statement shows that those opposing another rate cut in December were still a minority at the last FOMC meeting. Nick Timiraos, a senior Fed reporter known as the &#34;new Fed mouthpiece,&#34; pointed out that the minutes mentioned &#34;many&#34; officials who believed a rate cut in December was unnecessary, exceeding the number of officials who thought a rate cut was more likely. However, most officials still believed that a rate cut should be made in the future, regardless of whether it is in December. In summary, overall, most Federal Reserve officials believe that interest rates will be cut in the future, regardless of when. This includes centrists who will decide whether to cut rates in December based on data; many believe that no further rate cuts are necessary this year, while several believe that a rate cut is appropriate. The camp advocating against a December rate cut does not represent a majority, but its number exceeds that of the camp supporting a December rate cut. The FOMC's statement released after its October 29th meeting showed that the FOMC decided to cut rates for the second consecutive time by 25 basis points, but two of the 12 voters opposed this decision. Unlike previous instances, this time there was disagreement on both the magnitude of the rate cut and whether to continue. Among the opponents, President Trump's handpicked new governor, Milan, still hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid supports keeping rates unchanged. Many believe that tariff increases this year will have a limited impact on overall inflation. Most believe that interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks. The hawkish view within the Federal Reserve is reflected in the minutes statement, which mentions that when discussing risk management considerations, most participants believed that the FOMC's shift to a more neutral policy stance would help avoid a significant deterioration in labor market conditions. &#34;Many participants also believed that, given mounting evidence that tariff increases this year may have a limited impact on overall inflation, the Committee should appropriately ease its policy stance to address downside risks to employment.&#34; Most participants pointed out that against the backdrop of persistently high inflation and a slowly cooling labor market, further interest rate cuts could exacerbate the risk of persistent high inflation, or could be misinterpreted as a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation target. Some worried about a potential stock market crash if the market suddenly reassessed the prospects of AI. The minutes show that in discussions about financial stability risks, some Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about “overvaluation of assets in financial markets.” The minutes state: “Some participants commented on the issue of overvaluation of assets in financial markets, and several participants emphasized the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices, especially if the market suddenly reassesses the prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) related technologies.” A couple of participants also mentioned the risks associated with high corporate debt. These concerns reflect that the Federal Reserve, in formulating monetary policy, not only focuses on inflation and employment but also closely monitors financial stability. Almost unanimous support for ending balance sheet reduction; many support increasing the proportion of short-term debt holdings. The FOMC statement from the last meeting indicated that it decided to end the balance sheet reduction program on December 1st. This means that the balance sheet reduction program, which began on June 1, 2022, will end after three and a half years. The Fed's announcement shows that after stopping balance sheet reduction in December, the principal redeemed from the Fed's agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will be reinvested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities, replacing maturing MBS holdings. The meeting minutes released this Wednesday show that &#34;almost all&#34; of the participants believed that stopping balance sheet reduction on December 1st was appropriate, or in other words, they all believed that this decision was acceptable. Some market participants had previously worried that the Fed's delay in stopping balance sheet reduction could lead to fluctuations in overnight funding rates due to liquidity pressures. The minutes stated that participants unanimously agreed that the recent tightening of money market conditions indicated that the balance sheet reduction was nearing its end. &#34;Many participants noted that a higher proportion of short-term Treasury holdings would provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility to respond to changes in reserve requirements or non-reserve liabilities, thereby helping to maintain adequate reserve levels.&#34; Nick Timiraos, a senior Fed reporter known as the &#34;new Fed mouthpiece,&#34; wrote that the October rate cut decision triggered strong opposition to a possible December rate cut. In his article, Timiraos emphasizes that the minutes show strong disagreement within the FOMC regarding the policy decision for its next meeting in December. This has made a growing number of Fed policymakers—perhaps a narrow majority—uneasy about a December rate cut. He points out that this is the largest division within the FOMC regarding its next meeting in years. Timiraos notes that the minutes show several Fed officials opposed the October rate cut decision at the time, possibly including some regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights at FOMC meetings this year. Other officials who supported the rate cut also indicated they could accept inaction, highlighting the severity of the internal divisions within the committee. Timiraos further notes that regardless of the decision at the December meeting, most Fed officials believe further rate cuts are necessary in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲於 11 月 19 日東部時間發佈的會議紀要指出：“在討論貨幣政策的短期方向時，與會者對美聯儲委員會（FOMC）12 月會議上最可能的政策決定表達了非常不同的看法。大多數與會者認為，隨着委員會逐漸轉向更中性的政策立場，進一步降息可能是合適的。” “然而，一些人表示，他們可能不認為在 12 月會議上進一步降息 25 個基點是合適的。一些與會者評估，如果在接下來的兩次會議之間的經濟發展符合他們的預期，12 月進一步降息可能更為合適。” “許多與會者表示，基於他們的經濟展望，維持當前利率至年底可能是合適的。” 所有與會者一致認為，貨幣政策不是靜態的，而是受到各種最新數據、不斷變化的經濟展望和風險平衡的影響。媒體指出，在美聯儲會議紀要中常用的所謂計數術語中，“許多” 一詞代表的人數少於 “多數/大多數”。因此，上述聲明表明，在上一次 FOMC 會議上，反對在 12 月再次降息的人仍然是少數。被稱為 “新美聯儲發言人” 的資深美聯儲記者 Nick Timiraos 指出，會議紀要提到 “許多” 官員認為 12 月降息沒有必要，超過了認為降息更可能的官員人數。然而，大多數官員仍然認為，無論是否在 12 月，都應該在未來進行降息。總的來説，大多數美聯儲官員認為未來會降息，無論何時。這包括將根據數據決定是否在 12 月降息的中間派；許多人認為今年不需要進一步降息，而一些人認為降息是合適的。反對 12 月降息的陣營並不代表多數，但其人數超過了支持 12 月降息的陣營。FOMC 在 10 月 29 日會議後發佈的聲明顯示，FOMC 決定連續第二次將利率下調 25 個基點，但 12 名投票者中有兩名反對這一決定。與以往不同，這次在降息幅度和是否繼續降息的問題上存在分歧。在反對者中，特朗普總統挑選的新任州長 Milan 仍希望降息 50 個基點，而堪薩斯城聯儲主席 Schmid 支持維持利率不變。許多人認為，今年的關税增加對整體通脹的影響有限。大多數人認為降息可能加劇通脹風險。美聯儲內部的鷹派觀點在會議紀要中得到了反映，提到在討論風險管理考慮時，大多數與會者認為 FOMC 轉向更中性政策立場將有助於避免勞動市場條件的顯著惡化。“許多與會者還認為，考慮到今年關税增加的證據越來越多，可能對整體通脹的影響有限，委員會應適當放寬政策立場，以應對就業的下行風險。” 大多數與會者指出，在持續高通脹和勞動市場緩慢降温的背景下，進一步降息可能加劇持續高通脹的風險，或者可能被誤解為對 2% 通脹目標缺乏承諾。一些人擔心，如果市場突然重新評估人工智能的前景，可能會出現股市崩盤。會議紀要顯示，在討論金融穩定風險時，一些美聯儲官員對 “金融市場資產的高估值” 表示擔憂。會議紀要指出：“一些與會者評論了金融市場資產高估值的問題，幾位與會者強調了股價無序下跌的風險，尤其是如果市場突然重新評估與人工智能（AI）相關技術的前景。” 幾位與會者還提到了與高企業債務相關的風險。這些擔憂反映出美聯儲在制定貨幣政策時，不僅關注通脹和就業，還密切關注金融穩定。幾乎一致支持結束資產負債表縮減；許多人支持增加短期債務持有比例。上次會議的 FOMC 聲明指出，決定於 12 月 1 日結束資產負債表縮減計劃。這意味着自 2022 年 6 月 1 日開始的資產負債表縮減計劃將在三年半後結束。美聯儲的公告顯示，在 12 月停止資產負債表縮減後，從美聯儲的機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）中贖回的本金將再投資於短期美國國債，以替代到期的 MBS 持有。週三發佈的會議紀要顯示，“幾乎所有” 與會者認為在 12 月 1 日停止資產負債表縮減是合適的，換句話説，他們都認為這一決定是可以接受的。一些市場參與者此前擔心，美聯儲延遲停止資產負債表縮減可能導致由於流動性壓力而引發隔夜融資利率波動。會議紀要指出，與會者一致認為，近期貨幣市場條件的收緊表明資產負債表縮減接近尾聲。“許多與會者指出，更高比例的短期國債持有將為美聯儲提供更多靈活性，以應對準備金要求或非準備金負債的變化，從而幫助維持充足的準備金水平。” 被稱為 “新美聯儲發言人” 的資深美聯儲記者 Nick Timiraos 寫道，10 月的降息決定引發了對可能在 12 月降息的強烈反對。在他的文章中，Timiraos 強調，會議紀要顯示 FOMC 內部對 12 月下次會議的政策決定存在強烈分歧。這使得越來越多的美聯儲政策制定者——或許是一個狹窄的多數——對 12 月降息感到不安。他指出，這是多年來 FOMC 對下次會議的最大分歧。Timiraos 指出，會議紀要顯示幾位美聯儲官員在當時反對 10 月的降息決定，可能包括一些在今年 FOMC 會議上沒有投票權的地區聯儲主席。支持降息的其他官員也表示，他們可以接受不採取行動，突顯出委員會內部分歧的嚴重性。Timiraos 進一步指出，無論 12 月會議的決定如何，大多數美聯儲官員認為未來需要進一步降息。</p>
</div>

The Fed meeting minutes revealed serious disagreement: many believed a December rate cut was inappropriate.

- 美聯儲會議紀要顯示，官員對 12 月降息意見分歧。  
- 大多數官員認為未來降息是必要的，但反對降息的少數派人數增加。  
- 會議一致同意於 12 月 1 日結束資產負債表縮減。

美聯儲會議紀要揭示了嚴重的分歧：許多與會者認為 12 月降息是不合適的