<div id="readability-page-1">Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to keep interest rates steady at the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year, but economists say he could strike a more dovish tone as the labor market showed mixed signs. Following the delayed release of September's employment data, Bank of America economists said the rising unemployment rate makes a &#34;dovish hold&#34; the most likely outcome for December. The U.S. economy added 119,000 non-farm payrolls, sharply reversing the downwardly revised 4,000 job loss for August, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. &#34;The u-rate rose to 4.440% in Sep from 4.324% in Aug and 4.117% in Jun. This is a substantial pickup,&#34; said Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra. She also noted the surprising 33,000 downward revision to the last two months of data, with August revised down from a 22,000 gain to a 4,000 loss. <h2>A Fed Divided: Hawks vs. Doves</h2> The new data deepens the split within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). According to Bank of America's read, doves on the committee will emphasize the 32-basis-point increase in unemployment over the past three months, viewing it as the clearest indicator of rising labor-market slack. Hawks, on the other hand, may highlight the strong payroll beat, stable income growth and increased labor force participation as evidence that the labor market isn't cooling fast enough to justify another rate cut, especially with inflation still above the 2% target. &#34;The September jobs data won't do much to resolve the disagreement on the FOMC,&#34; Mishra said, suggesting Powell may signal flexibility while keeping rates steady for now. <h2>Markets Align With ‘Dovish Hold' View </h2> &#34;A December cut is still not our base case, but it's a closer call now given the u-rate jump,&#34; Mishra said. &#34;A ‘dovish hold' might be a good compromise for Powell given the mixed bag September report.&#34; Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, said the September Fed minutes characterized the labor market as undergoing a &#34;very gradual cooling,&#34; but that view looks overly optimistic in light of the latest data. Adams highlighted how policymakers will miss the official November employment report ahead of their next meeting, relying instead on private estimates, just as they did when deciding to cut rates in October. &#34;Payrolls rose more than expected, but the trend still looks modest after downward revisions to July and August,&#34; Adams said. He added that while the Fed has been downplaying the odds of another cut, this report &#34;prods them in the other direction.&#34; Despite lingering concerns over stock market valuations, tariff-driven inflation, and climate-related food price pressures, Comerica now sees a rate cut in December as more likely than not. <h2>What Is The Bond Market Saying? </h2> Rate cut odds for December ticked higher on Thursday, with Fed futures now implying a 37% probability—up from around 25% before the September jobs report. Treasury yields eased modestly in response to the data, with the 2-year yield slipping 3 basis points to 3.56%, while the 10-year yield also fell 3 basis points to 4.11%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF rose 0.3%, on pace to break a two-day losing streak. Read Next: <ul> <li>The Fed Is Split – And A December Rate Cut Moves Further Away</li> </ul> Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney. </div>

美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾預計將在今年最後一次美聯儲會議上維持利率不變，可能會採取温和的語氣，因為勞動力市場信號混雜。九月份的就業數據表明，失業率上升至 4.4%，為 2021 年十月以來的最高水平，儘管新增就業人數有所增加。經濟學家認為 “温和維持” 的可能性較大，聯邦公開市場委員會內部意見分歧。市場對十二月降息的預期增加，國債收益率略微回落

Powell Set For A 'Dovish Hold' In December, Economists Say After Jobs Data

- 美聯儲主席鮑威爾預計將在年末會議上維持利率不變。  
- 經濟學家認為，因就業市場信號混雜，鮑威爾可能採取更温和的語氣。  
- 失業率上升至 4.4%，為 2021 年 10 月以來最高，增加了降息的可能性。

經濟學家在就業數據公佈後表示，鮑威爾將在 12 月採取 ‘鴿派維持’ 的立場