<p>TradingKey – 美聯儲於美國東部時間 12 月 10 日如預期將利率下調 25 個基點，決議以 9-3 的投票結果通過。這是六年來首次有三位官員表示異議，其中兩位反對降息，新任美聯儲理事 Smirlan 支持更大幅度的降息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1286" height="1246" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg"/></p>
<p>[美聯儲內部異議概述，來源：美聯儲]</p>
<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾多次表示，某種程度的分歧是正常的。他強調，這些分歧主要集中在兩個關鍵風險的相對權重和政策調整的節奏上。這種深入、尊重的辯論對美聯儲做出最佳決策至關重要，因此，這不會限制下次會議的任何政策選項，也不會產生任何先入為主的結果。</p>
<p>儘管降息符合市場預期，但投資者更關注美聯儲對明年利率的隱含指引。</p>
<p>鮑威爾指出，經過重複計算後，自四月以來，職位增長可能略微為負。他暗示勞動力市場可能比最初預期的要疲軟。值得注意的是，鮑威爾在過去兩次降息中越來越重視勞動力市場疲軟的影響。</p>
<p>此外，鮑威爾表示，沒有人將加息視為基線預期。反對降息的異議票數並未超過市場預期，鮑威爾的言論也比預期的 “鷹派” 程度低。這為市場注入了信心，同時為 2026 年的潛在降息定下了基調。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1600" height="1182" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg"/></p>
<p>[美聯儲點陣圖，來源：美聯儲]</p>
<p>華爾街普遍預計，美聯儲將在 2026 年大幅降息，降幅遠超點陣圖所示的 25 個基點。這一觀點基於對工資增長減弱的預期，以及在 2026 年上半年幾乎沒有通脹反彈跡象。</p>
<p>因此，2026 年降息的路徑仍然是市場共識，表明主流市場觀點顯著偏向鴿派，至少在美國勞工部下週發佈 10 月和 11 月就業數據之前。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，美聯儲仍在考慮通脹和就業市場哪個更具擔憂。如果未來幾個月的就業數據沒有顯示出顯著疲軟，1 月 FOMC 會議上不太可能進行基準利率調整。</p>
<p>其次，儘管通脹仍然高企，但當前數據並未顯示出持續上升的跡象，而是相對穩定。與持續的勞動力市場疲軟相比，就業數據的質量仍然是指導美聯儲是否降息的主導因素。</p>
<p>此外，在回答有關準備金水平和貨幣市場緊張的問題時，鮑威爾澄清，恢復資產負債表購買屬於技術性準備金管理，而非量化寬鬆。他重申，這些準備金管理購買（RMP）的目的是維持充足的準備金水平，防範季節性流動性波動（如 2026 年 4 月 15 日的税日衝擊），並支持長期經濟擴張的需求，與貨幣政策放鬆 “完全分開”。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

<p>美聯儲將利率下調 25 個基點，投票結果為 9 票贊成、3 票反對，顯示出內部顯著的分歧。美聯儲主席鮑威爾強調了辯論在決策中的重要性。投資者關注美聯儲對 2026 年的指引，預計由於工資增長疲軟和通脹穩定，將進一步降息。鮑威爾澄清了儲備管理與貨幣政策寬鬆是分開的。美聯儲的決定取決於即將發佈的就業數據和通脹擔憂</p>

<p>TradingKey – The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, US Eastern Time, as widely anticipated, with the resolution passing by a 9-3 vote. This marked the first time in six years that three officials dissented, with two arguing against a rate cut and newly appointed Fed Governor Smirlan favoring a larger reduction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey – 美聯儲於美國東部時間 12 月 10 日如預期將利率下調 25 個基點，決議以 9-3 的投票結果通過。這是六年來首次有三位官員表示異議，其中兩位反對降息，新任美聯儲理事 Smirlan 支持更大幅度的降息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg"/></p>
<p>[Fed Internal Dissent Overview, Source: Federal Reserve]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[美聯儲內部異議概述，來源：美聯儲]</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that a certain degree of disagreement is normal. He emphasized that these differences primarily center on the relative weighting of two key risks and the pacing of policy adjustments. Such thorough, respectful debate is crucial for the Fed to make optimal decisions, and therefore, it will not constrain any policy options for the next meeting, nor will it create any preconceived outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾多次表示，某種程度的分歧是正常的。他強調，這些分歧主要集中在兩個關鍵風險的相對權重和政策調整的節奏上。這種深入、尊重的辯論對美聯儲做出最佳決策至關重要，因此，這不會限制下次會議的任何政策選項，也不會產生任何先入為主的結果。</p>
</div><p>While the rate cut met market expectations, investors focused more on the Fed's implicit guidance for next year's interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管降息符合市場預期，但投資者更關注美聯儲對明年利率的隱含指引。</p>
</div><p>Powell indicated that, after accounting for duplicate counting, job growth might have been slightly negative since April. He suggested the labor market could be weaker than initially projected. Notably, Powell has increasingly weighed the impact of labor market weakness during the past two rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾指出，經過重複計算後，自四月以來，職位增長可能略微為負。他暗示勞動力市場可能比最初預期的要疲軟。值得注意的是，鮑威爾在過去兩次降息中越來越重視勞動力市場疲軟的影響。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Powell stated that no one anticipates a rate hike as a baseline expectation. The number of dissenting votes against the cut did not exceed market expectations, and Powell's remarks were less &#34;hawkish&#34; than anticipated. This injected confidence into the market and simultaneously set the tone for potential rate cuts in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，鮑威爾表示，沒有人將加息視為基線預期。反對降息的異議票數並未超過市場預期，鮑威爾的言論也比預期的 “鷹派” 程度低。這為市場注入了信心，同時為 2026 年的潛在降息定下了基調。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg"/></p>
<p>[FED Dot Plot, Source: Federal Reserve]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[美聯儲點陣圖，來源：美聯儲]</p>
</div><p>Wall Street widely projects that the Fed will cut rates by significantly more than the 25 basis points indicated by the dot plot in 2026. This view is based on expectations of weakening wage growth and little sign of an inflation rebound in the first half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街普遍預計，美聯儲將在 2026 年大幅降息，降幅遠超點陣圖所示的 25 個基點。這一觀點基於對工資增長減弱的預期，以及在 2026 年上半年幾乎沒有通脹反彈跡象。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the path for rate cuts in 2026 remains the market consensus, indicating a significantly more dovish mainstream market view, at least until the U.S. Labor Department releases October and November employment data next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，2026 年降息的路徑仍然是市場共識，表明主流市場觀點顯著偏向鴿派，至少在美國勞工部下週發佈 10 月和 11 月就業數據之前。</p>
</div><p>It should be noted that the Fed is still deliberating whether inflation or the job market poses a greater concern. If employment data in the coming months does not show significant weakening, a benchmark interest rate adjustment is unlikely at the January FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，美聯儲仍在考慮通脹和就業市場哪個更具擔憂。如果未來幾個月的就業數據沒有顯示出顯著疲軟，1 月 FOMC 會議上不太可能進行基準利率調整。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, despite inflation remaining elevated, current data does not indicate a sustained increase but rather relative stability. Compared to persistent labor market weakness, the quality of employment data remains the dominant factor guiding the Fed's decision on whether to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，儘管通脹仍然高企，但當前數據並未顯示出持續上升的跡象，而是相對穩定。與持續的勞動力市場疲軟相比，就業數據的質量仍然是指導美聯儲是否降息的主導因素。</p>
</div><p>In addition, when addressing questions about reserve levels and money market tensions, Powell clarified that the resumption of balance sheet purchases constitutes technical reserve management, not quantitative easing. He reiterated that these Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) aim to maintain ample reserve levels, guard against seasonal liquidity fluctuations (such as the April 15, 2026 tax day shock), and support long-term economic expansion needs, remaining &#34;completely separate&#34; from monetary policy easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，在回答有關準備金水平和貨幣市場緊張的問題時，鮑威爾澄清，恢復資產負債表購買屬於技術性準備金管理，而非量化寬鬆。他重申，這些準備金管理購買（RMP）的目的是維持充足的準備金水平，防範季節性流動性波動（如 2026 年 4 月 15 日的税日衝擊），並支持長期經濟擴張的需求，與貨幣政策放鬆 “完全分開”。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

2026 年是降息還是加息？以下是美聯儲在今天的聯邦公開市場委員會會議上所傳達的信號