<p>量子計算已經取得了一些進展，但還沒有達到能夠對比特幣網絡及相關錢包構成威脅的程度。</p>
<p>根據 Blockstream 的首席執行官亞當·巴克（Adam Back）所説，目前的量子計算機無法使比特幣崩潰。</p>
<p>他駁斥了一篇聲稱唯一能將比特幣從 87,000 美元崩潰到 3 美元的原因是能夠破解錢包和整個網絡的量子計算機的帖子。</p>
<p>上個月，巴克表示，量子計算機在未來 20 到 40 年內才能穩定並對比特幣構成威脅。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>不過，在風險變得真實之前，網絡可能已經安全。事實上，Blockstream 的研究人員已經在開發將比特幣網絡升級為量子安全網絡的提案。</p>
<p>然而，並不是每個人都認為這一威脅距離我們還有二十年。</p>
<h2>為什麼量子安全的比特幣是緊迫的</h2>
<p>或許，關於量子計算風險最直言不諱的投資者是 Capriole Investments 的首席執行官查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）。根據他的説法，今年比特幣在價格表現上落後於黃金，正是因為這種風險。</p>
<p>他補充説，最佳解決方案是在 2026 年達成共識，使比特幣網絡具備抗量子攻擊的能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>從某種角度來看，量子計算機與當前的經典計算機不同，因為它們利用所謂的量子比特（qubits），而不是典型的基於 0 和 1 操作的固態芯片。然而，目前它們的創建、擴展和防止錯誤（如過熱）都非常困難。</p>
<p>到目前為止，IBM 有一個約 1000 個量子比特的工作原型，而谷歌和微軟分別實現了 50 個和 8 個量子比特。可惜的是，錯誤率極高。</p>
<p>要破解當前的比特幣加密，量子計算機必須至少具備 2500 個邏輯穩定的量子比特，並且能夠連續運行數天而不出錯。這就是為什麼像亞當·巴克這樣的專家將這一威脅視為長期問題，而不是立即或中期風險。</p>
<h2>比特幣持有者尋求相對安全</h2>
<p>事實上，推動量子計算機的頂級公司如果在沒有適當保護措施的情況下開發出量子計算機，將面臨風險。基於這一前提，即使是 Strategy 的創始人邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）也淡化了量子計算機對比特幣構成的中期威脅。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“谷歌和微軟不會向你出售能夠破解現代加密的量子計算機，因為這會摧毀他們、美國政府和銀行系統。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>與此同時，一些頂級持有者已經從最新格式（taproot，紫色）遷移到更具抗性的比特幣地址（Segwit，藍色）。</p>
<p>根據比特幣分析師威利·吳（Willy Woo）的説法，如果地址不被重複使用，Segwit 可以減少 “量子長程攻擊”。</p>
<p>自 2024 年以來，Segwit 地址的數量一直在增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>加密專家認為，量子計算機可能需要幾十年才能破解比特幣網絡。</em></li>
<li><em>一些投資者已經遷移到相對安全的 Segwit 地址。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

<p>Blockstream 的首席執行官亞當·巴克（Adam Back）駁斥了關於量子計算機可能會迅速崩潰比特幣的説法。他認為，目前的量子技術尚不夠先進，無法威脅比特幣網絡。雖然像查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）這樣的人將量子威脅視為緊迫問題，但巴克認為，量子計算機要真正構成風險還需要 20 到 40 年。目前正在進行努力，使比特幣具備抗量子攻擊的能力，一些投資者已經開始轉向更安全的比特幣地址</p>

<p>Quantum computing has made some progress, but not to the extent that it could pose a threat to the Bitcoin network and related wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算已經取得了一些進展，但還沒有達到能夠對比特幣網絡及相關錢包構成威脅的程度。</p>
</div><p>According to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a cypherpunk who was once mistaken for Satoshi, quantum computers right now can’t crash BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Blockstream 的首席執行官亞當·巴克（Adam Back）所説，目前的量子計算機無法使比特幣崩潰。</p>
</div><p>He discredited a post that claimed that the only thing that could crash BTC by 99% from $87k to $3 is a quantum computer capable of cracking wallets and the entire network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他駁斥了一篇聲稱唯一能將比特幣從 87,000 美元崩潰到 3 美元的原因是能夠破解錢包和整個網絡的量子計算機的帖子。</p>
</div><p>Last month, Back said that quantum computers could only become stable and pose a threat to BTC in the next 20-40 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月，巴克表示，量子計算機在未來 20 到 40 年內才能穩定並對比特幣構成威脅。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>Still, the network could be secure by the time the risk becomes real. In fact, Blockstream researchers are already developing proposals for upgrading the Bitcoin network to a quantum-secure one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，在風險變得真實之前，網絡可能已經安全。事實上，Blockstream 的研究人員已經在開發將比特幣網絡升級為量子安全網絡的提案。</p>
</div><p>However, not everyone believes the threat is two decades away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，並不是每個人都認為這一威脅距離我們還有二十年。</p>
</div><h2>Why quantum-secure BTC is urgent</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼量子安全的比特幣是緊迫的</h2>
</div><p>Perhaps one of the most vocal investors about the risks of quantum computing is Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments. According to him, BTC has lagged behind gold in terms of price performance this year because of the risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或許，關於量子計算風險最直言不諱的投資者是 Capriole Investments 的首席執行官查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）。根據他的説法，今年比特幣在價格表現上落後於黃金，正是因為這種風險。</p>
</div><p>The best solution, he added, is to reach a consensus in 2026 and make the Bitcoin network quantum-resistant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，最佳解決方案是在 2026 年達成共識，使比特幣網絡具備抗量子攻擊的能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>For perspective, quantum computers differ from current classical computers because they utilize the so-called qubits instead of typical solid-state chips that operate on 0 and 1. However, they are currently difficult to create, scale, and shield from errors (such as overheating).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從某種角度來看，量子計算機與當前的經典計算機不同，因為它們利用所謂的量子比特（qubits），而不是典型的基於 0 和 1 操作的固態芯片。然而，目前它們的創建、擴展和防止錯誤（如過熱）都非常困難。</p>
</div><p>So far, IBM has a working prototype with about 1000 qubits, while Google and Microsoft have managed 50 and 8 qubits, respectively. Alas, the error rates have been extremely high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，IBM 有一個約 1000 個量子比特的工作原型，而谷歌和微軟分別實現了 50 個和 8 個量子比特。可惜的是，錯誤率極高。</p>
</div><p>To crack the current Bitcoin cryptography, a quantum computer must have at least 2,500 logical and stable qubits that can operate for days without errors. That’s why experts like Adam Back view the threat as a long-term issue, rather than an immediate or mid-term risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要破解當前的比特幣加密，量子計算機必須至少具備 2500 個邏輯穩定的量子比特，並且能夠連續運行數天而不出錯。這就是為什麼像亞當·巴克這樣的專家將這一威脅視為長期問題，而不是立即或中期風險。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin holders seek relative security</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣持有者尋求相對安全</h2>
</div><p>In fact, most of the top firms that are pushing for quantum computers will be at risk if they develop one without proper safeguards.Based on this premise, even Strategy founder Michael Saylor has downplayed the mid-term threats posed by quantum computers to Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，推動量子計算機的頂級公司如果在沒有適當保護措施的情況下開發出量子計算機，將面臨風險。基於這一前提，即使是 Strategy 的創始人邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）也淡化了量子計算機對比特幣構成的中期威脅。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Google and Microsoft won’t sell you a quantum computer that cracks modern cryptography because it’ll destroy them, the US government, and the banking system.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“谷歌和微軟不會向你出售能夠破解現代加密的量子計算機，因為這會摧毀他們、美國政府和銀行系統。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In the meantime, some top holders are already migrating to more resistant Bitcoin addresses (Segwit, blue) from the latest format (taproot, purple).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，一些頂級持有者已經從最新格式（taproot，紫色）遷移到更具抗性的比特幣地址（Segwit，藍色）。</p>
</div><p>According to BTC analyst Willy Woo, Segwit reduces “quantum long range attacks” if the address is not reused.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據比特幣分析師威利·吳（Willy Woo）的説法，如果地址不被重複使用，Segwit 可以減少 “量子長程攻擊”。</p>
</div><p>The number of Segwit addresses has been increasing since 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2024 年以來，Segwit 地址的數量一直在增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Cryptography experts believe that it could take decades for quantum computers to crack the Bitcoin network.</em></li>
<li><em>Some investors have already migrated to relatively secure Segwit addresses.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>加密專家認為，量子計算機可能需要幾十年才能破解比特幣網絡。</em></li>
<li><em>一些投資者已經遷移到相對安全的 Segwit 地址。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Adam Back 駁斥了可能導致比特幣市場崩潰的量子計算恐懼、疑慮和不確定性（FUD）