<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>美聯儲正在爭論通貨膨脹……就好像他們知道自己在説什麼一樣。</p>
<p>根據特朗普團隊的説法，通貨膨脹已經被擊敗。特朗普總統的經濟顧問之一，斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）認為，“基於市場的” 通貨膨脹實際上接近 2%，儘管官方的通貨膨脹指標（消費者價格指數 CPI 和個人消費支出 PCE）接近 3%。他公開呼籲美聯儲將利率下調 0.5%，而不是通常的 0.2%。</p>
<p>相比之下，許多其他美聯儲官員擔心通貨膨脹並沒有得到控制。他們指出無數指標表明通貨膨脹並沒有達到美聯儲所偏好的 2% 的目標。事實上，通貨膨脹壓力在數據中正在_擴大_，幾乎一半（47%）的核心個人消費支出組成部分的年同比增幅超過 3%。</p>
<p>這怎麼可能？兩組聰明的人如何能對同一數據有如此不同的看法？</p>
<p>答案是 <strong>美國的通貨膨脹數據是一場笑話，已經持續多年。</strong> 因此，美聯儲當前的通貨膨脹辯論基本上是一羣白領知識分子在爭論他們對像牙仙子這樣的虛構實體的解讀。</p>
<p>關於通貨膨脹數據的一些更嚴重的問題：</p>
<ol>
<li>住房的測量是數據中最大的組成部分，這些數據是美聯儲發明的_估算_，而不是基於市場的測量。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>數據不包括食品或能源價格，因為畢竟，誰真的需要這些來生存呢？</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>數據經過如此處理和修飾，以至於聲稱醫療保險成本每年僅上漲 2%-5%。我還沒有遇到過一個人，他們的保險成本上漲得如此緩慢。</li>
</ol>
<p>等等。</p>
<p>現實是，美國的所有通貨膨脹數據都是為了做一件事：<strong>低估真實的通貨膨脹率，以掩蓋美國生活水平在幾十年來的下降。</strong></p>
<p>這個事實每天都在我們面前，但媒體或美聯儲中沒有人有體面地公開承認這一點。</p>
<p>在 1950 年代，大多數家庭只需一位家長工作就能過得很好。如今，通常兩位家長都工作，並且家庭還有抵押貸款、信用卡債務、汽車貸款和可能的學生貸款。</p>
<p>如果通貨膨脹接近聲稱的水平，上述情況是_不可能_的。</p>
<p>現實是，自 1970 年代以來，美國的真實生活成本相對於收入已經飆升。因此，當美聯儲官員在公開場合辯論通貨膨脹時，<strong>他們基本上是在辯論一個與現實沒有任何聯繫的虛構數字。</strong></p>
<p>我知道這一點。你也知道。市場也知道。</p>
<p>人們喜歡指出股票作為信號，表明今天每個人的財富比二十年前更富有。根據圖表，標準普爾 500 指數在此期間上漲了超過 400%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png"/></p>
<p>然而，股票是以美元定價的。由於通貨膨脹的真實狀態，<strong>在此期間，美元的購買力已經損失了超過 40%。</strong> 當你以黃金為基準定價股票時，標準普爾 500 指數實際上自 2006 年以來是下跌的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美聯儲正在這樣做……無論我們是否喜歡。</p>
<p>世界上最重要的市場再次崩潰。</p>
<p>特朗普美聯儲將引發一場大漲。</p>

<p>美聯儲正在討論通貨膨脹率，特朗普的顧問斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）與其他美聯儲官員的觀點截然不同。米蘭聲稱基於市場的通貨膨脹接近 2%，呼籲降息 0.5%，而其他人則認為通貨膨脹超過 3%。文章批評美國的通貨膨脹數據具有誤導性，認為其低估了真實的通貨膨脹，影響了生活水平。文章強調了通貨膨脹測量中的差異以及對美元購買力的影響</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>The Fed is arguing about inflation… as if they have a clue what they are talking about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲正在爭論通貨膨脹……就好像他們知道自己在説什麼一樣。</p>
</div><p>According to Team Trump, inflation has been defeated. One of President Trump’s closest economic advisors, Stephen Miran, has argued that “market-based” inflation is in fact close to 2%, despite the official inflation metrics (Consumer Price Index, CPI and Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE) being closer to 3%. He is openly calling for the Fed to cut rates by 0.5% instead of the usual 0.2% rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據特朗普團隊的説法，通貨膨脹已經被擊敗。特朗普總統的經濟顧問之一，斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）認為，“基於市場的” 通貨膨脹實際上接近 2%，儘管官方的通貨膨脹指標（消費者價格指數 CPI 和個人消費支出 PCE）接近 3%。他公開呼籲美聯儲將利率下調 0.5%，而不是通常的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>By way of contrast, numerous other Fed officials are concerned that inflation is NOT tamed. They point to countless metrics which indicate inflation has NOT hit the Fed’s preferred target of 2%. In fact, if anything, inflationary pressures are <em>broadening</em> in the data with nearly HALF (47%) of the components that make up the Core-PCE clocking in at over 3% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，許多其他美聯儲官員擔心通貨膨脹並沒有得到控制。他們指出無數指標表明通貨膨脹並沒有達到美聯儲所偏好的 2% 的目標。事實上，通貨膨脹壓力在數據中正在_擴大_，幾乎一半（47%）的核心個人消費支出組成部分的年同比增幅超過 3%。</p>
</div><p>How is this possible? How can two sets of intelligent people have such different views over the same data?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這怎麼可能？兩組聰明的人如何能對同一數據有如此不同的看法？</p>
</div><p>The answer is that <strong>the inflation data in the U.S. is a joke and has been for years.</strong> So, the current inflation debate at the Fed is basically a bunch of white-collar intellectuals arguing over their interpretation of imaginary entity like the tooth fairy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答案是 <strong>美國的通貨膨脹數據是一場笑話，已經持續多年。</strong> 因此，美聯儲當前的通貨膨脹辯論基本上是一羣白領知識分子在爭論他們對像牙仙子這樣的虛構實體的解讀。</p>
</div><p>Some of the more egregious issues with the inflation data:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於通貨膨脹數據的一些更嚴重的問題：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The measures for shelter, which are the single largest component of the data, are <em>estimates</em> that the Fed invented, NOT market-based measures.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>住房的測量是數據中最大的組成部分，這些數據是美聯儲發明的_估算_，而不是基於市場的測量。</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>The data doesn’t include food or energy prices, because after all, who actually needs those to survive?</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>數據不包括食品或能源價格，因為畢竟，誰真的需要這些來生存呢？</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>The data is so massaged and gimmicked that it claims healthcare insurance costs only rise 2%-5% per year. I’ve yet to meet a single person whose insurance costs rise that slowly.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>數據經過如此處理和修飾，以至於聲稱醫療保險成本每年僅上漲 2%-5%。我還沒有遇到過一個人，他們的保險成本上漲得如此緩慢。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>And on and on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>等等。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that ALL of the inflation data is in the U.S. is designed to do one thing: <strong>understate the true rate of inflation to hide the fact that living standards have declined in the U.S. for decades.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現實是，美國的所有通貨膨脹數據都是為了做一件事：<strong>低估真實的通貨膨脹率，以掩蓋美國生活水平在幾十年來的下降。</strong></p>
</div><p>This fact stares all of us in the face every day, but no one in the media or at the Fed has the decency to admit it publicly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個事實每天都在我們面前，但媒體或美聯儲中沒有人有體面地公開承認這一點。</p>
</div><p>In the 1950s most families did fine with one parent working. Today, typically both parents work AND the family has a mortgage, credit card debt, auto loan AND possibly a student loan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1950 年代，大多數家庭只需一位家長工作就能過得很好。如今，通常兩位家長都工作，並且家庭還有抵押貸款、信用卡債務、汽車貸款和可能的學生貸款。</p>
</div><p>The above is IMPOSSIBLE if inflation is anywhere near the claimed rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通貨膨脹接近聲稱的水平，上述情況是_不可能_的。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that the true cost of living in the U.S. has skyrocketed relative to incomes in the U.S. at least since the 1970s. So, when Fed officials debate inflation in public, <strong>they’re basically debating an imaginary number that has no connection to reality.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現實是，自 1970 年代以來，美國的真實生活成本相對於收入已經飆升。因此，當美聯儲官員在公開場合辯論通貨膨脹時，<strong>他們基本上是在辯論一個與現實沒有任何聯繫的虛構數字。</strong></p>
</div><p>I know this. You know it. And the markets know it as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我知道這一點。你也知道。市場也知道。</p>
</div><p>People like to point to stocks as signaling that everyone is wealthier today than they were two decades ago. According to the charts, the S&amp;P 500 is up over 400% during that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們喜歡指出股票作為信號，表明今天每個人的財富比二十年前更富有。根據圖表，標準普爾 500 指數在此期間上漲了超過 400%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png" alt="" original-src="https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png"/></p>
<p>However, stocks are priced in the U.S. dollar. And thanks to the true state of inflation, <strong>the U.S. dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power during that time.</strong> When you price stocks in gold, which cannot be devalued, the S&amp;P 500 is actually DOWN since 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票是以美元定價的。由於通貨膨脹的真實狀態，<strong>在此期間，美元的購買力已經損失了超過 40%。</strong> 當你以黃金為基準定價股票時，標準普爾 500 指數實際上自 2006 年以來是下跌的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png" alt="" original-src="https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Fed Is Doing This… Whether We Like It Or Not</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲正在這樣做……無論我們是否喜歡。</p>
</div><p>The Most Important Market In The World Is Breaking Down Again</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界上最重要的市場再次崩潰。</p>
</div><p>The Trump Fed Will Ignite A Melt Up</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普美聯儲將引發一場大漲。</p>
</div>

美聯儲在討論通貨膨脹的同時，美國正在崩潰