<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png"/></p>
<p>Strategy 的股價在本月繼續自由下跌，目前徘徊在自去年九月以來的最低水平。儘管標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克 100 指數創下歷史新高，但 MSTR 股票已從 2024 年的最高點下跌超過 70%。</p>
<h2>Strategy 企業淨資產價值即將轉為負值</h2>
<p>MSTR 股票價格的持續下跌使其面臨重大風險，即其企業淨資產價值（mNAV）可能在本月內轉為負值。</p>
<p>這一數字的計算方法是首先找到公司的企業價值，這通過將其市值與總債務、優先股和少數股權相加，然後從其資產負債表中的現金中減去。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，該公司的市值為 450 億美元，遠低於其資產負債表中的比特幣金額。其企業價值為 590 億美元，略高於其 582 億美元的比特幣持有量。</p>
<p>因此，其比特幣持有量有可能超過公司的企業價值。從理論上講，這樣的變化將降低其估值指標；同時也會消除投資該公司的主要理由。</p>
<p>歷史上，投資者之所以向 Strategy 投資，是因為其比特幣持有量的溢價。這些投資者甚至對其稀釋感到滿意。</p>
<p>mNAV 倍數的下降意味着公司可能難以籌集額外資金來購買比特幣。事實上，在今年七月，管理層發佈了指引，承諾如果 mNAV 低於 2.5 倍將不再發行股票。之後，他們改變了政策，並繼續發行價值數十億美元的股票。</p>
<p>MSTR 已成為一家高度稀釋的公司，這一過程將繼續進行，因為它在市場上的（ATM）發行中仍有超過 120 億美元的剩餘。</p>
<p>TradingView 彙編的數據表明，其流通股數量已從 2021 年的 7700 萬股躍升至 2.67 億股。</p>
<h2>MSTR 股票價格技術面指向更多下行空間</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>MSTR 股票圖表 | 來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<p>日線圖顯示，Strategy 的股價在過去幾個月中處於強烈的熊市趨勢。它已從七月的 455 美元跌至今天的 157 美元。該股票已經跌破 200 日和 50 日移動平均線。</p>
<p>它還跌破了 230 美元的支撐位，這是三月的最低水平，以及 455 美元的雙頂形態的頸線。相對強弱指數（RSI）和其他振盪器持續下跌。</p>
<p>因此，MSTR 股票價格的最可能預測是看跌，下一關鍵目標是 125 美元的 78.6% 回撤位。</p>
<h2>比特幣價格技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>BTC 價格圖表 | 來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<p>日線圖顯示，比特幣價格已從十月的 126,200 美元暴跌至當前的 86,787 美元。它已經形成了死亡交叉形態，因為 50 日和 200 日移動平均線交叉。</p>
<p>該幣形成了一個看跌的旗形模式，由兩部分組成：一條垂直線和一個對稱三角形模式。因此，比特幣價格可能會繼續下跌，可能會跌至 80,000 美元的支撐位。</p>
<p>比特幣價格的崩潰可能會導致 MSTR 股票在短期內進一步下跌。然而，從長遠來看，隨着比特幣開始反彈，股票可能會回升。</p>
<p>這篇文章最初發布在 Invezz 上，標題為 MSTR 股票面臨風險，因為一個關鍵的 MicroStrategy 指標接近負區間。</p>

MSTR

<p>MicroStrategy（MSTR）的股票自 2024 年峯值以來已暴跌超過 70%，達到自去年九月以來的最低點。該公司的企業價值淨資產值（mNAV）接近負值，面臨估值風險。MSTR 的股票已跌破關鍵技術水平，熊市前景瞄準 125 美元。比特幣價格的下跌加劇了 MSTR 的下滑，但如果比特幣恢復，長期反彈是可能的</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png"/></p>
<p>The Strategy stock price continued its freefall this month and is now hovering at its lowest level since September last year. MSTR stock has plunged by over 70% from its highest level in 2024, even as the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices jumped to a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的股價在本月繼續自由下跌，目前徘徊在自去年九月以來的最低水平。儘管標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克 100 指數創下歷史新高，但 MSTR 股票已從 2024 年的最高點下跌超過 70%。</p>
</div><h2>Strategy enterprise NAV is about to turn negative</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Strategy 企業淨資產價值即將轉為負值</h2>
</div><p>The ongoing MSTR stock price has put it at a significant risk that its enterprise value net asset value (mNAV) will turn negative as soon as this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSTR 股票價格的持續下跌使其面臨重大風險，即其企業淨資產價值（mNAV）可能在本月內轉為負值。</p>
</div><p>This figure is calculated by first finding the company’s enterprise value, which is done by adding its market capitalization with its total debt, preferred equity, and minority interest, and then subtracting it from the cash in its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一數字的計算方法是首先找到公司的企業價值，這通過將其市值與總債務、優先股和少數股權相加，然後從其資產負債表中的現金中減去。</p>
</div><p>In this case, the company has a market capitalization of $45 billion, which is much lower than the amount of Bitcoin in its balance sheet. Its enterprise value is $59 billion, which is a few points above its Bitcoin holdings of $58.2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，該公司的市值為 450 億美元，遠低於其資產負債表中的比特幣金額。其企業價值為 590 億美元，略高於其 582 億美元的比特幣持有量。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there is a possibility that its Bitcoin holdings will become more than the company’s enterprise value. In theory, such a move would lower its valuation metric; it would also remove the main case for investing in the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，其比特幣持有量有可能超過公司的企業價值。從理論上講，這樣的變化將降低其估值指標；同時也會消除投資該公司的主要理由。</p>
</div><p>Historically, investors allocated money in Strategy because of its premium to its Bitcoin holdings. These investors were even comfortable with its dilution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，投資者之所以向 Strategy 投資，是因為其比特幣持有量的溢價。這些投資者甚至對其稀釋感到滿意。</p>
</div><p>The falling mNAV multiple means that the company may struggle to raise additional cash to buy Bitcoin. Indeed, in July this year, the management issued guidance in which it pledged not to issue stock if the mNAV drops below 2.5x. It then changed the policy after that and has gone ahead to issue shares worth billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>mNAV 倍數的下降意味着公司可能難以籌集額外資金來購買比特幣。事實上，在今年七月，管理層發佈了指引，承諾如果 mNAV 低於 2.5 倍將不再發行股票。之後，他們改變了政策，並繼續發行價值數十億美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>MSTR has become a highly dilutive company, a process that will continue as it has over $12 billion remaining in its at-the-market (ATM) offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSTR 已成為一家高度稀釋的公司，這一過程將繼續進行，因為它在市場上的（ATM）發行中仍有超過 120 億美元的剩餘。</p>
</div><p>Data compiled by TradingView shows that its outstanding shares have jumped to 267 million from 77 million in 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingView 彙編的數據表明，其流通股數量已從 2021 年的 7700 萬股躍升至 2.67 億股。</p>
</div><h2>MSTR stock price technicals point to more downside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>MSTR 股票價格技術面指向更多下行空間</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>MSTR stock chart | Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>MSTR 股票圖表 | 來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the Strategy’s share price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It has tumbled from a high of $455 in July to $157 today. The stock has already plunged below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，Strategy 的股價在過去幾個月中處於強烈的熊市趨勢。它已從七月的 455 美元跌至今天的 157 美元。該股票已經跌破 200 日和 50 日移動平均線。</p>
</div><p>It has also moved below the support at $230, its lowest level in March, and the neckline of the double-top pattern at $455. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other oscillators have continued falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它還跌破了 230 美元的支撐位，這是三月的最低水平，以及 455 美元的雙頂形態的頸線。相對強弱指數（RSI）和其他振盪器持續下跌。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the most likely MSTR stock price forecast is bearish, with the next key target being the 78.6% retracement level at $125.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，MSTR 股票價格的最可能預測是看跌，下一關鍵目標是 125 美元的 78.6% 回撤位。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin price technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣價格技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>BTC price chart | Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>BTC 價格圖表 | 來源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the BTC price has crashed from a high of $126,200 in October to the current $86,787. It has aready formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed each other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，比特幣價格已從十月的 126,200 美元暴跌至當前的 86,787 美元。它已經形成了死亡交叉形態，因為 50 日和 200 日移動平均線交叉。</p>
</div><p>The coin has formed a bearish pennant pattern, which is made up of two parts: a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, Bitcoin price will likely continue falling, potentially to the support at $80,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該幣形成了一個看跌的旗形模式，由兩部分組成：一條垂直線和一個對稱三角形模式。因此，比特幣價格可能會繼續下跌，可能會跌至 80,000 美元的支撐位。</p>
</div><p>A Bitcoin price crash will likely lead to more downside for MSTR stock in the near term. In the long-term, however, the stock will likely rebound as Bitcoin starts its climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣價格的崩潰可能會導致 MSTR 股票在短期內進一步下跌。然而，從長遠來看，隨着比特幣開始反彈，股票可能會回升。</p>
</div><p>The post MSTR stock at risk as a key MicroStrategy metric approaches a negative zone appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章最初發布在 Invezz 上，標題為 MSTR 股票面臨風險，因為一個關鍵的 MicroStrategy 指標接近負區間。</p>
</div>

MSTR 股票面臨風險，因為一個關鍵的 MicroStrategy 指標正在接近負值區域