<p>對我來説，新年是在我位於蘇黎世的辦公桌上開始的。但即使在一月的頭幾天，我的注意力已經集中在舊金山。JP 摩根醫療健康大會的準備工作正在如火如荼地進行，因為它仍然是該行業的關鍵指標之一。新的研究數據、戰略公告以及一月中旬的初步決策往往為未來一年定下基調。</p>
<p>醫療健康行業在 2026 年進入了一個顯著改善的狀態。在經歷了一段時間的高度不確定性後，關鍵條件已經穩定，而幾個結構性增長驅動因素正在獲得動力。這為投資者創造了一個再次更加強調基本面、創新能力和盈利可見性的環境。</p>
<p><strong>政治清晰度作為資本流動的催化劑</strong></p>
<p>一個重要的轉折點是美國政治清晰度的提高。2025 年秋季政府與主要製藥公司達成的價格協議首次為未來的定價和報銷政策創造了可計算的基礎。這種更大的可預測性迅速產生了效果：資本流入該行業明顯增加，醫療健康最近成為全球股市中最強勁的板塊之一。此前觀望的專業投資者開始重新建立頭寸。</p>
<p><strong>估值正在追趕——潛力尚未被完全挖掘</strong></p>
<p>與此同時，重新估值已經開始。儘管估值已從歷史低點回升至長期平均水平，但醫療健康行業仍以約 13% 的折扣交易於整體市場。這與盈利預期形成對比：預計生物製藥和生命科學公司在 2024 年至 2027 年期間的平均盈利增長約為 15% 每年——是長期趨勢約 7% 的兩倍多。這種結構性增長與持續適度的估值結合，為投資者提供了一個增加配置的吸引窗口。</p>
<p>生物製藥尤其受益於多個增長驅動因素。腫瘤學的新藥物類別、肥胖和糖尿病治療的進展以及心血管領域的創新正在打開額外的銷售市場。同時，生物加工的需求正在上升，受到本土化效應和新生產平台的推動。</p>
<p>此外，強大的併購能力也在不斷增強：許多公司擁有豐富的流動性儲備，能夠有效填補產品線空缺並積極管理專利到期。</p>
<p><strong>醫療技術：成熟市場與新增長領域</strong></p>
<p>醫療技術仍然是一個關鍵的增長支柱。機器人輔助手術和連續血糖監測等成熟細分市場繼續以兩位數的速度增長，而新技術迅速進入臨牀實踐。預計連續血糖監測的可尋址市場在未來幾年將幾乎翻倍。同時，脈衝場消融和人工智能支持的智能眼鏡等應用變得越來越重要。儘管有這種勢頭，大型醫療技術公司仍以顯著的估值折扣交易於更廣泛的股市。</p>
<p><strong>新興市場：從生產地點到創新驅動者</strong></p>
<p>另一個結構性因素是新興市場日益重要。中國正逐漸從單純的生產和許可合作伙伴轉變為獨立的創新中心，例如在腫瘤學領域。在印度，人口趨勢、日益壯大的中產階級以及對醫療基礎設施的投資正在推動對高質量療法和專業服務的需求。</p>
<p><strong>一個正在崛起的行業</strong></p>
<p>在 2026 年初，醫療健康行業回到了歷史上定期創造價值的地方：創新、結構性增長和日益增強的運營可見性。接下來的幾周，尤其是對舊金山會議的密集準備，將更加聚焦於哪些主題、技術和商業模式將在 2026 年引領醫療健康行業的步伐。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em><strong>Marcel Fritsch</strong>, Bellevue Asset Management 醫療健康基金與委託管理負責人。</em></p>

夢百合

<p>醫療保健行業在 2026 年迎來了強勁的勢頭，這得益於美國市場條件的改善和政治環境的明朗。主要的增長動力包括生物製藥的進步、醫療技術的創新，以及中國和印度等新興市場日益重要的地位。儘管估值正在追趕，但醫療保健行業仍然相較於整體市場處於折扣狀態。隨着盈利增長預期的上升，投資者正越來越多地建立頭寸。即將舉行的 JP 摩根醫療保健會議將進一步突出該行業的趨勢和機會</p>

<p>For me, the new year begins at my desk in Zurich. But even in the first few days of January, my attention is already focused on San Francisco. Preparations for the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference are in full swing, as it remains one of the key indicators for the sector. New study data, strategic announcements, and initial decisions in mid-January often set the tone for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，新年是在我位於蘇黎世的辦公桌上開始的。但即使在一月的頭幾天，我的注意力已經集中在舊金山。JP 摩根醫療健康大會的準備工作正在如火如荼地進行，因為它仍然是該行業的關鍵指標之一。新的研究數據、戰略公告以及一月中旬的初步決策往往為未來一年定下基調。</p>
</div><p>The healthcare sector is entering 2026 in a significantly improved position. After a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty, key conditions have stabilized, while several structural growth drivers are gaining momentum. This creates an environment for investors that is once again more strongly characterized by fundamentals, innovative strength, and earnings visibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>醫療健康行業在 2026 年進入了一個顯著改善的狀態。在經歷了一段時間的高度不確定性後，關鍵條件已經穩定，而幾個結構性增長驅動因素正在獲得動力。這為投資者創造了一個再次更加強調基本面、創新能力和盈利可見性的環境。</p>
</div><p><strong>Political clarity as a catalyst for capital flows</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>政治清晰度作為資本流動的催化劑</strong></p>
</div><p>An important turning point was the increasing political clarity in the US. The price agreements reached in fall 2025 between the government and leading pharmaceutical companies have created a calculable basis for future pricing and reimbursement policy for the first time. This greater predictability has had a rapid effect: capital flows into the sector have increased noticeably, and healthcare has recently been one of the strongest segments of the global stock markets. Professional investors who had previously stood on the sidelines are beginning to build up positions again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個重要的轉折點是美國政治清晰度的提高。2025 年秋季政府與主要製藥公司達成的價格協議首次為未來的定價和報銷政策創造了可計算的基礎。這種更大的可預測性迅速產生了效果：資本流入該行業明顯增加，醫療健康最近成為全球股市中最強勁的板塊之一。此前觀望的專業投資者開始重新建立頭寸。</p>
</div><p><strong>Valuations are catching up – the potential has not yet been exhausted</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>估值正在追趕——潛力尚未被完全挖掘</strong></p>
</div><p>At the same time, a revaluation has begun. Although valuations have moved back from their historic lows towards their long-term averages, the healthcare sector continues to trade at a discount of around 13% to the overall market. This contrasts with earnings expectations: Biopharmaceutical and life science companies are expected to see average earnings growth of around 15% per year from 2024 to 2027 – more than double the long-term trend of around 7%. This combination of structural growth and continued moderate valuations creates an attractive window of opportunity for investors to increase their allocations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，重新估值已經開始。儘管估值已從歷史低點回升至長期平均水平，但醫療健康行業仍以約 13% 的折扣交易於整體市場。這與盈利預期形成對比：預計生物製藥和生命科學公司在 2024 年至 2027 年期間的平均盈利增長約為 15% 每年——是長期趨勢約 7% 的兩倍多。這種結構性增長與持續適度的估值結合，為投資者提供了一個增加配置的吸引窗口。</p>
</div><p>Biopharma in particular is benefiting from several growth drivers. New classes of drugs in oncology, advances in the treatment of obesity and diabetes, and innovations in the cardiovascular field are opening up additional sales markets. At the same time, demand in bioprocessing is rising, driven by onshoring effects and new production platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生物製藥尤其受益於多個增長驅動因素。腫瘤學的新藥物類別、肥胖和糖尿病治療的進展以及心血管領域的創新正在打開額外的銷售市場。同時，生物加工的需求正在上升，受到本土化效應和新生產平台的推動。</p>
</div><p>Added to this is exceptionally strong M&amp;A capacity: with extensive liquidity reserves, many companies are well positioned to close pipeline gaps and actively manage patent expiries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，強大的併購能力也在不斷增強：許多公司擁有豐富的流動性儲備，能夠有效填補產品線空缺並積極管理專利到期。</p>
</div><p><strong>Medtech: Established markets and new growth areas</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>醫療技術：成熟市場與新增長領域</strong></p>
</div><p>Medtech also remains a key growth pillar. Established segments such as robot-assisted surgery and continuous glucose monitoring continue to grow at double-digit rates, while new technologies are rapidly finding their way into clinical practice. The addressable market for continuous glucose monitoring is expected to nearly double in the coming years. At the same time, applications such as pulse field ablation and AI-supported smart glasses are becoming increasingly important. Despite this momentum, large medtech companies continue to trade at a significant valuation discount to the broader stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>醫療技術仍然是一個關鍵的增長支柱。機器人輔助手術和連續血糖監測等成熟細分市場繼續以兩位數的速度增長，而新技術迅速進入臨牀實踐。預計連續血糖監測的可尋址市場在未來幾年將幾乎翻倍。同時，脈衝場消融和人工智能支持的智能眼鏡等應用變得越來越重要。儘管有這種勢頭，大型醫療技術公司仍以顯著的估值折扣交易於更廣泛的股市。</p>
</div><p><strong>Emerging markets: From production location to innovation driver</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>新興市場：從生產地點到創新驅動者</strong></p>
</div><p>Another structural factor is the growing importance of emerging markets. China is increasingly evolving from a pure production and licensing partner to an independent innovation center, for example in the field of oncology. In India, demographic trends, a growing middle class, and investments in healthcare infrastructure are driving demand for high-quality therapies and specialized services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個結構性因素是新興市場日益重要。中國正逐漸從單純的生產和許可合作伙伴轉變為獨立的創新中心，例如在腫瘤學領域。在印度，人口趨勢、日益壯大的中產階級以及對醫療基礎設施的投資正在推動對高質量療法和專業服務的需求。</p>
</div><p><strong>A sector on the rise</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>一個正在崛起的行業</strong></p>
</div><p>At the beginning of 2026, healthcare is back where the sector has historically created value on a regular basis: innovation, structural growth, and increasing operational visibility. The coming weeks—and in particular the intensive preparations for the conference in San Francisco—are sharpening the focus on which topics, technologies, and business models will set the pace in the healthcare sector in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年初，醫療健康行業回到了歷史上定期創造價值的地方：創新、結構性增長和日益增強的運營可見性。接下來的幾周，尤其是對舊金山會議的密集準備，將更加聚焦於哪些主題、技術和商業模式將在 2026 年引領醫療健康行業的步伐。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em><strong>Marcel Fritsch</strong>, Head of Healthcare Fonds &amp; Mandate, Bellevue Asset Management.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>Marcel Fritsch</strong>, Bellevue Asset Management 醫療健康基金與委託管理負責人。</em></p>
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2026 年伊始：醫療保健投資展現強勁勢頭