<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png"/></p>
<p>雖然日曆已經翻頁，但對於英偉達來説，地緣政治的熟悉壓力依然顯著。</p>
<p>作為全球領先的人工智能芯片製造商，這家美國公司仍然夾在華盛頓對先進半導體出口的日益嚴格控制與北京減少對外國技術依賴的決心之間。</p>
<p>去年 12 月，美國總統唐納德·特朗普宣佈，他的政府將解除對英偉達 H200 人工智能芯片出口中國的限制，推翻了拜登政府時期實施的禁令。</p>
<p>對於英偉達及其首席執行官黃仁勳來説，這一宣佈是一個令人欣慰的勝利，因為黃仁勳花了數月時間遊説白宮，認為阻止美國芯片製造商進入中國最終會加強國內中國競爭對手，而不是保護美國的領導地位。</p>
<h2>新的衝擊：中國要求部分科技公司停止下新訂單 H200 芯片</h2>
<p>然而，這些期望在本週受到衝擊，《信息》報道中國當局已要求一些科技公司停止下新訂單英偉達的 H200 芯片。</p>
<p>該報道指出，監管機構正在審查這些芯片是否應被允許進入中國以及在什麼條件下進入，這表明這是一個暫停，而不是全面拒絕。</p>
<p>根據報道，北京希望防止公司在最終決定之前囤積美國製造的芯片。</p>
<p>“中國致力於基於自身優勢推動國家發展，同時也願意與各方保持對話與合作，以維護全球產業和供應鏈的穩定，” 中國駐華盛頓大使館發言人劉鵬宇表示。</p>
<h2>中國可能允許特定用途購買 H200</h2>
<p>增加不確定性的是，彭博社週四報道，中國正準備在本季度儘快批准一些英偉達 H200 芯片的進口。</p>
<p>根據報道，中國官員正在考慮允許用於特定商業用途的購買，同時對敏感領域保持嚴格限制。</p>
<p>根據計劃，這些芯片將被禁止用於軍事、關鍵基礎設施、敏感政府機構和國有企業，理由是出於安全考慮。</p>
<p>類似的限制之前也適用於其他外國技術產品，包括蘋果的設備和美光科技的內存芯片。</p>
<p>報告補充説，來自受限組織的請求仍可能被單獨審查，引用了消息來源。</p>
<h2>英偉達採取措施保護自己；要求全額預付款</h2>
<p>在這種變化的背景下，英偉達採取措施保護自己，以防批准延遲或撤回帶來的潛在損失。</p>
<p>路透社報道，該公司已開始要求尋求購買 H200 芯片的中國客户全額預付款，施加比以往更嚴格的商業條款。</p>
<p>該政策要求客户在下訂單時全額支付，訂單後不允許取消、申請退款或更改配置。</p>
<p>在有限的情況下，客户可能被允許提供商業保險或資產抵押，而不是現金。</p>
<p>雖然預付款長期以來一直是英偉達對中國客户的標準條款，但之前允許客户支付定金而不是全額預付款。</p>
<p>然而，對於 H200，英偉達收緊了條件，反映出對最終是否批准發貨缺乏明確性。</p>
<p>這一舉措反映了吸取的慘痛教訓。</p>
<p>去年，英偉達因美國突然禁令阻止 H20 芯片銷售給中國而進行了 55 億美元的庫存減記，突顯了政策變化如何迅速轉化為財務痛苦。</p>
<h2>儘管不確定性，中國的需求依然強勁</h2>
<p>即使監管機構在審議，H200 的需求似乎並未減弱。</p>
<p>H200 是一款強大的組件。作為英偉達第二先進的芯片，它的性能大約是 H20 的六倍，後者是專門設計以遵守早期出口規則的產品，後來被全面禁用。</p>
<p>對於急於構建和部署大規模人工智能系統的中國科技公司而言，H200 代表了能力的重大飛躍。</p>
<p>黃仁勳週二表示，客户的興趣 “相當高”，英偉達已提前擴大了供應鏈以應對訂單。</p>
<p>“特朗普總統已經表示 H200 是被許可出口的，現在我們需要處理相關的機制。一旦完成，我預計採購訂單會到來。”</p>
<p>黃仁勳補充説，他不期待北京會發布正式聲明，指出採購訂單的到來本身就會表明批准。</p>
<p>“我們通過採購訂單瞭解一切。我們不期待任何新聞稿或大型聲明，” 黃仁勳説。</p>
<p>根據路透社的報道，中國科技公司已下單超過 200 萬顆 H200 芯片，每顆價格約為 27,000 美元。</p>
<p>這遠遠超過了英偉達目前約 70 萬單位的庫存，突顯了需求的規模和滿足需求的物流挑戰。</p>
<h2>對英偉達來説，財務風險高昂</h2>
<p>中國對英偉達的財務重要性依然顯著。</p>
<p>在 8 月，首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯表示，該公司每季度可以向中國出貨價值 20 億到 50 億美元的芯片，如果訂單加速，這一數字還有上升的空間。</p>
<p>最近幾天，英偉達的政府事務團隊傳播報告，警告稱中國公司如華為和百度正在縮小與美國芯片的質量差距。</p>
<p>英偉達認為，切斷與中國的聯繫可能加速國內競爭對手的崛起，而不是減緩他們的增長。</p>
<p>諮詢公司 Frost &amp; Sullivan 的報告顯示，百度和華為已經控制了中國雲計算芯片市場超過 70% 的份額。</p>
<p>它補充説，國內公司正在構建 “全棧” 產品，以與英偉達的 CUDA 軟件生態系統競爭，而後者是其在人工智能計算領域主導地位的基石。</p>
<h2>國內競爭者獲得動力，但仍遠遠落後於英偉達</h2>
<p>包括字節跳動在內的中國互聯網集團，將 H200 視為關鍵升級，同時繼續開發替代方案。</p>
<p>分析師表示，國內 GPU 可能在三到五年內從戰略備份轉變為中國人工智能產業的核心組件。</p>
<p>投資者對這一轉變的樂觀情緒推動了中國芯片股票的急劇上漲。</p>
<p>去年，寒武紀的股價上漲超過 120%，而由前英偉達高管創辦的 Moore Threads 則在上海科創板進行了一次年度最大規模的上市。</p>
<p>儘管如此，專家警告稱，中國企業仍然在性能上顯著落後於英偉達。</p>
<p>華為常被認為是最強的國內競爭者，預計在性能上至少落後兩年。</p>
<p>根據美國新安全中心的 Tim Fist 的説法，中國製造商還面臨嚴重的產能限制，最多隻能生產外國競爭對手產量的 2%。</p>
<p>為了滿足預期的需求，英偉達已與台灣半導體制造公司接洽，計劃提高 H200 的生產能力，預計在 2026 年第二季度將有額外產能上線。</p>
<p>這一擴張正值挑戰時期，因為英偉達正在從其 Blackwell 架構過渡到更先進的 Rubin 平台，並與谷歌等客户競爭在台積電稀缺的製造名額。</p>
<p>關於英偉達在中國的平衡：H200 芯片、地緣政治和高風險的人工智能賭注的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達在中國面臨挑戰，因為它在應對美國與中國之間關於半導體出口的地緣政治緊張局勢。繼特朗普總統最近宣佈解除對英偉達 H200 芯片的出口管制後，中國當局已要求一些科技公司暫停新訂單，同時審查進口條件。儘管存在這種不確定性，H200 的需求依然強勁，英偉達收緊了對中國客户的付款條款，以減輕潛在損失。該公司預計，採購訂單將標誌着銷售的批准，因為中國科技公司對 H200 芯片的興趣持續增長</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png"/></p>
<p>The calendar may have turned, but for Nvidia, the familiar strains of geopolitics continue to loom large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然日曆已經翻頁，但對於英偉達來説，地緣政治的熟悉壓力依然顯著。</p>
</div><p>As the world’s leading maker of artificial intelligence chips, the US company remains caught between Washington’s tightening grip on advanced semiconductor exports and Beijing’s determination to reduce reliance on foreign technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為全球領先的人工智能芯片製造商，這家美國公司仍然夾在華盛頓對先進半導體出口的日益嚴格控制與北京減少對外國技術依賴的決心之間。</p>
</div><p>In December, US President Donald Trump had announced that his administration would remove export controls on Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips for China, reversing a ban imposed under the previous Biden administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年 12 月，美國總統唐納德·特朗普宣佈，他的政府將解除對英偉達 H200 人工智能芯片出口中國的限制，推翻了拜登政府時期實施的禁令。</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia and its chief executive Jensen Huang, the announcement was a welcome win after Huang spent months lobbying the White House, arguing that blocking US chipmakers from China would ultimately strengthen domestic Chinese rivals rather than protect American leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於英偉達及其首席執行官黃仁勳來説，這一宣佈是一個令人欣慰的勝利，因為黃仁勳花了數月時間遊説白宮，認為阻止美國芯片製造商進入中國最終會加強國內中國競爭對手，而不是保護美國的領導地位。</p>
</div><h2>Fresh jolt: China asks some tech cos to stop placing new orders for H200 chips</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新的衝擊：中國要求部分科技公司停止下新訂單 H200 芯片</h2>
</div><p>However, those expectations were jolted this week after The Information reported that Chinese authorities had asked some technology companies to stop placing new orders for Nvidia’s H200 chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些期望在本週受到衝擊，《信息》報道中國當局已要求一些科技公司停止下新訂單英偉達的 H200 芯片。</p>
</div><p>The report said regulators were reviewing whether the chips should be allowed into the country and under what conditions, signalling a pause rather than a blanket rejection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該報道指出，監管機構正在審查這些芯片是否應被允許進入中國以及在什麼條件下進入，這表明這是一個暫停，而不是全面拒絕。</p>
</div><p>According to the report, Beijing is keen to prevent companies from stockpiling US-made chips before a final decision is reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據報道，北京希望防止公司在最終決定之前囤積美國製造的芯片。</p>
</div><p>“China is committed to basing its national development on its own strengths, and is also willing to maintain dialogue and cooperation with all parties to safeguard the stability of global industrial and supply chains,” said Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“中國致力於基於自身優勢推動國家發展，同時也願意與各方保持對話與合作，以維護全球產業和供應鏈的穩定，” 中國駐華盛頓大使館發言人劉鵬宇表示。</p>
</div><h2>China could allow purchases of H200 for select uses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中國可能允許特定用途購買 H200</h2>
</div><p>Adding to the uncertainty, Bloomberg reported on Thursday that China is preparing to approve some imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips as soon as this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加不確定性的是，彭博社週四報道，中國正準備在本季度儘快批准一些英偉達 H200 芯片的進口。</p>
</div><p>As per the report, Chinese officials are considering allowing purchases for select commercial uses, while keeping strict limits in place for sensitive areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據報道，中國官員正在考慮允許用於特定商業用途的購買，同時對敏感領域保持嚴格限制。</p>
</div><p>Under the plan, the chips would be barred from use by the military, critical infrastructure, sensitive government agencies and state-owned enterprises, citing security concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據計劃，這些芯片將被禁止用於軍事、關鍵基礎設施、敏感政府機構和國有企業，理由是出於安全考慮。</p>
</div><p>Similar restrictions have previously been applied to other foreign technology products, including devices from Apple and memory chips from Micron Technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>類似的限制之前也適用於其他外國技術產品，包括蘋果的設備和美光科技的內存芯片。</p>
</div><p>Requests from restricted organisations could still be reviewed individually, the report added, citing sources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告補充説，來自受限組織的請求仍可能被單獨審查，引用了消息來源。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia moves to protect itself; demands full upfront payment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達採取措施保護自己；要求全額預付款</h2>
</div><p>Against this shifting backdrop, Nvidia has taken steps to shield itself from potential losses if approvals are delayed or withdrawn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種變化的背景下，英偉達採取措施保護自己，以防批准延遲或撤回帶來的潛在損失。</p>
</div><p>Reuters reported that the company has begun demanding full upfront payment from Chinese customers seeking to buy H200 chips, imposing stricter commercial terms than usual.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社報道，該公司已開始要求尋求購買 H200 芯片的中國客户全額預付款，施加比以往更嚴格的商業條款。</p>
</div><p>The policy requires customers to pay in full at the time of ordering, with no option to cancel, seek refunds or change configurations after orders are placed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該政策要求客户在下訂單時全額支付，訂單後不允許取消、申請退款或更改配置。</p>
</div><p>In limited cases, clients may be allowed to provide commercial insurance or asset collateral instead of cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在有限的情況下，客户可能被允許提供商業保險或資產抵押，而不是現金。</p>
</div><p>While advance payments have long been part of Nvidia’s standard terms for Chinese clients, they were previously allowed to place deposits rather than pay the full amount up front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然預付款長期以來一直是英偉達對中國客户的標準條款，但之前允許客户支付定金而不是全額預付款。</p>
</div><p>For the H200, however, Nvidia has tightened conditions, reflecting the lack of clarity over whether shipments will ultimately be approved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，對於 H200，英偉達收緊了條件，反映出對最終是否批准發貨缺乏明確性。</p>
</div><p>The move reflects hard lessons learned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一舉措反映了吸取的慘痛教訓。</p>
</div><p>Last year, Nvidia took a $5.5 billion inventory write-down after a sudden US ban blocked sales of the H20 chip to China, highlighting how quickly policy shifts can translate into financial pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，英偉達因美國突然禁令阻止 H20 芯片銷售給中國而進行了 55 億美元的庫存減記，突顯了政策變化如何迅速轉化為財務痛苦。</p>
</div><h2>Demand in China remains strong despite uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>儘管不確定性，中國的需求依然強勁</h2>
</div><p>Even as regulators deliberate, demand for the H200 appears undiminished.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使監管機構在審議，H200 的需求似乎並未減弱。</p>
</div><p>The H200 is a powerful component. As Nvidia’s second-most advanced chip, it offers roughly six times the performance of the H20, a product that had been designed specifically to comply with earlier export rules before being banned outright.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>H200 是一款強大的組件。作為英偉達第二先進的芯片，它的性能大約是 H20 的六倍，後者是專門設計以遵守早期出口規則的產品，後來被全面禁用。</p>
</div><p>For Chinese technology firms racing to build and deploy large-scale AI systems, the H200 represents a major leap in capability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於急於構建和部署大規模人工智能系統的中國科技公司而言，H200 代表了能力的重大飛躍。</p>
</div><p>Huang said on Tuesday that customer interest was “quite high” and that Nvidia had ramped up its supply chain in anticipation of orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃仁勳週二表示，客户的興趣 “相當高”，英偉達已提前擴大了供應鏈以應對訂單。</p>
</div><p>“President Trump has already said that the H200s are licensed to be exported, and now we have to go through the mechanics of that. Once we get that done, I’m expecting the purchase orders to arrive.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“特朗普總統已經表示 H200 是被許可出口的，現在我們需要處理相關的機制。一旦完成，我預計採購訂單會到來。”</p>
</div><p>Huang added that he did not expect a formal statement from Beijing, noting that the arrival of purchase orders would itself signal approval.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃仁勳補充説，他不期待北京會發布正式聲明，指出採購訂單的到來本身就會表明批准。</p>
</div><p>“We learn about everything through purchase orders. We’re not expecting any press releases or any large declarations,” Huang said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們通過採購訂單瞭解一切。我們不期待任何新聞稿或大型聲明，” 黃仁勳説。</p>
</div><p>According to Reuters, Chinese technology companies have placed orders for more than 2 million H200 chips, each priced at about $27,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據路透社的報道，中國科技公司已下單超過 200 萬顆 H200 芯片，每顆價格約為 27,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>That far exceeds Nvidia’s current inventory of around 700,000 units, underlining both the scale of demand and the logistical challenge of meeting it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這遠遠超過了英偉達目前約 70 萬單位的庫存，突顯了需求的規模和滿足需求的物流挑戰。</p>
</div><h2>High financial stakes for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對英偉達來説，財務風險高昂</h2>
</div><p>The financial importance of China to Nvidia remains substantial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國對英偉達的財務重要性依然顯著。</p>
</div><p>In August, chief financial officer Colette Kress said the company could ship between $2 billion and $5 billion worth of chips to China per quarter, with scope for that figure to rise if orders accelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月，首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯表示，該公司每季度可以向中國出貨價值 20 億到 50 億美元的芯片，如果訂單加速，這一數字還有上升的空間。</p>
</div><p>In recent days, Nvidia’s government affairs team has circulated reports warning that Chinese companies such as Huawei and Baidu are closing the quality gap with US chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近幾天，英偉達的政府事務團隊傳播報告，警告稱中國公司如華為和百度正在縮小與美國芯片的質量差距。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has argued that cutting it off from China risks accelerating the rise of domestic competitors rather than slowing them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達認為，切斷與中國的聯繫可能加速國內競爭對手的崛起，而不是減緩他們的增長。</p>
</div><p>A report by consulting firm Frost &amp; Sullivan suggested that Baidu and Huawei already control more than 70% of China’s cloud-computing chip market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>諮詢公司 Frost &amp; Sullivan 的報告顯示，百度和華為已經控制了中國雲計算芯片市場超過 70% 的份額。</p>
</div><p>It added that domestic companies are building “full-stack” offerings to rival Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem, a cornerstone of its dominance in AI computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它補充説，國內公司正在構建 “全棧” 產品，以與英偉達的 CUDA 軟件生態系統競爭，而後者是其在人工智能計算領域主導地位的基石。</p>
</div><h2>Domestic challengers gain momentum but still quite behind Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>國內競爭者獲得動力，但仍遠遠落後於英偉達</h2>
</div><p>Chinese internet groups, including ByteDance, see the H200 as a crucial upgrade while they continue to develop alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括字節跳動在內的中國互聯網集團，將 H200 視為關鍵升級，同時繼續開發替代方案。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say domestic GPUs could move from being strategic backups to core components of China’s AI industry within three to five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，國內 GPU 可能在三到五年內從戰略備份轉變為中國人工智能產業的核心組件。</p>
</div><p>Investor optimism around that shift has driven sharp gains in Chinese chip stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對這一轉變的樂觀情緒推動了中國芯片股票的急劇上漲。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Cambricon rose more than 120% last year, while Moore Threads, founded by a former Nvidia executive, floated in one of the Shanghai Star Market’s largest offerings of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，寒武紀的股價上漲超過 120%，而由前英偉達高管創辦的 Moore Threads 則在上海科創板進行了一次年度最大規模的上市。</p>
</div><p>Even so, experts caution that Chinese players still trail Nvidia by a meaningful margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，專家警告稱，中國企業仍然在性能上顯著落後於英偉達。</p>
</div><p>Huawei, often cited as the strongest domestic challenger, is thought to be at least two years behind in performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華為常被認為是最強的國內競爭者，預計在性能上至少落後兩年。</p>
</div><p>Chinese manufacturers also face severe capacity constraints, producing at most 2% of the volume achieved by foreign rivals, according to Tim Fist of the Center for a New American Security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據美國新安全中心的 Tim Fist 的説法，中國製造商還面臨嚴重的產能限制，最多隻能生產外國競爭對手產量的 2%。</p>
</div><p>To meet anticipated demand, Nvidia has approached Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co about ramping up H200 production, with additional capacity expected to come online in the second quarter of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了滿足預期的需求，英偉達已與台灣半導體制造公司接洽，計劃提高 H200 的生產能力，預計在 2026 年第二季度將有額外產能上線。</p>
</div><p>That expansion comes at a challenging time, as Nvidia transitions from its Blackwell architecture to the more advanced Rubin platform and competes with customers such as Alphabet’s Google for scarce manufacturing slots at TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一擴張正值挑戰時期，因為英偉達正在從其 Blackwell 架構過渡到更先進的 Rubin 平台，並與谷歌等客户競爭在台積電稀缺的製造名額。</p>
</div><p>The post Nvidia’s China tightrope: H200 chips, geopolitics and a high-stakes AI gamble appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於英偉達在中國的平衡：H200 芯片、地緣政治和高風險的人工智能賭注的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
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Nvidia’s China tightrope: H200 chips, geopolitics and a high-stakes AI gamble

- 美國對 Nvidia H200 芯片出口控制放鬆，但中國技術公司新訂單受限。  
- Nvidia 要求中國客户全額預付款，以應對不確定性和政策變動帶來的損失。  
- 中國對美國芯片需求旺盛，儘管國內競爭者正在逐步增長。

英偉達在中國的鋼絲行走：H200 芯片、地緣政治以及高風險的人工智能賭局